The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[stevestojan]

Go Steelers. 
 

/thread. 

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

I believe we can still finish 11-6 and if the Browns lose just 1 game and Colts or Texans win out, they would hold the tie breaker. Mind you, all 3 can't have this occur because they play each other, but 2 of the 3 scenarios can happen which would lock up the two Wild Cards. By all means correct me if I'm wrong. But Cleveland with one more AFC loss has a better conference record and the same is true of either Houston or Indy if they win out. 

 

 

 

No at this point we control our own destiny. Colts and Texans still play each other. One of them will end up at 7 losses. The only other wildcard team that has a path to 11-6 is the Browns.  There's three wildcard teams... If we finish 11-6 we are now assured to be one of them.

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No at this point we control our own destiny. Colts and Texans still play each other. One of them will end up at 7 losses. The only other wildcard team that has a path to 11-6 is the Browns.  There's three wildcard teams... If we finish 11-6 we are now assured to be one of them.

dumb dumb I am, for some reason I was thinking only two Wild Card spots for non division winners. Good deal. In that case, for sure, in our hands and 100% agree. Really nice to have that part resolved and fully in our hands. Now perhaps we root for one loss and still in? But we really need to run the table. IMO it doesn't show very well if we can't accomplish that with what we want to accomplish in the playoffs. 

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Now perhaps we root for one loss and still in?

 

It isn't that unlikely. Bengals need to drop one more. Texans or Colts or Jaguars need to drop two more. Broncos need to drop one more. Steelers need to drop one more. That's our path to getting in at 10-7.

 

If the Falcons and Browns both win this weekend (over the Colts and Texans respectively), we just need Broncos, Steelers, and Bengals to drop one more each and we get in at 10-7 no matter what.

[Gunsgoodtime]

What are our odds now to make the playoffs if we lose a game now?  Just curious 

[Cheektowaga Chad]

So does the Steelers win put the bills playoff hopes into their own hands officially?

[Nelius]

On 12/21/2023 at 9:43 PM, Mr. WEO said:

lol bengals and colts 

Credit where it’s due. Later Cincy

[chongli]

21 minutes ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

So does the Steelers win put the bills playoff hopes into their own hands officially?

 

Yes.

 

------

 

Second message: 

 

I never took Cincy seriously. As soon as Burrow went down, I knew they were done. Their luck finally ran out. The same goes for upstart teams like Indy and Houston.

Edited December 24, 2023 by chongli

[ColoradoBills]

45 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

What are our odds now to make the playoffs if we lose a game now?  Just curious 

 

69%

[transplantbillsfan]

Not anymore 

[Billsatlastin2018]

That’s ALL gibberish.

 

1) Buffalo wins out.

2) Fish lose to Cowgirls or Baltimore.

=

 

Bills are home in Wild Card Round.

[Seventeen]

#6 seed right now  

[chongli]

 

 

[Buffalo Boy]

WE ARE IN!!!!

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

I like how this "somewhat probable" scenario got nixed in the very first game.

[Big Turk]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:27 PM, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

 

What did I tell you about "lock games" this time of year?  You thought the Bengals were a "lock" to beat the Steelers and instead they got their teeth kicked in and looked like they were the team falling apart not the Steelers.  Surprised to see the Steelers kick their @ss so bad, but not that they won.  They give the Bengals fits, even when they have Burrow playing. Have now won 3 of the last 4 games against the Bengals.

On 12/22/2023 at 12:19 AM, Rubes said:

Don’t be so sure…

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3W4Zf8Za0FE

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

6 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

That’s ALL gibberish.

 

1) Buffalo wins out.

2) Fish lose to Cowgirls or Baltimore.

=

 

Bills are home in Wild Card Round.

 

While unlikely, what if Dolphins lose to Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo?  Bills win AFC East?

[strive_for_five_guy]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Wonderful said:

 

While unlikely, what if Dolphins lose to Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo?  Bills win AFC East?

Yes, if Dolphins lose all three, we win AFC East regardless of whether

we beat Pats or not.

[djp14150]

19 minutes ago, Mr. Wonderful said:

 

While unlikely, what if Dolphins lose to Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo?  Bills win AFC East?

Right now Miami’s magic number to win the AFC is 2.

 

1. if MIA goes WW then they clinch the division.

2. IF MIA goes LW or WL and BUF W then BUF is a game behind going into week 18. BUF W they get div because odpf season sweep.

3. If Miami goes LL and BUF W then they are tied. W or T week 18 goes to buffalo for division.

4. IF Miami goes LL and BUF L then it is similar to #3. Where they are one game apart and a W and BUF wins division.

[Big Turk]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It isn't that unlikely. Bengals need to drop one more. Texans or Colts or Jaguars need to drop two more. Broncos need to drop one more. Steelers need to drop one more. That's our path to getting in at 10-7.

 

If the Falcons and Browns both win this weekend (over the Colts and Texans respectively), we just need Broncos, Steelers, and Bengals to drop one more each and we get in at 10-7 no matter what.

 

Pretty sure we would win some form of multi-team tiebreaker depending on what teams they are as well at 10-7