The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[LarryMadman]

11 hours ago, BufBills83 said:

So I actually figured out the scenario that leaves the Bills out of the playoffs at 11-6.

 

- Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore, and loses to Buffalo.  Miami wins division at 12-5.

- Baltimore wins enough games to win division, but loses to Miami.

- Jacksonville wins division by winning out and going 11-6.

- KC loses to Cincy but wins their other 2 games, finish 11-6 and win division.

 

Those are the division winners.  Now for the wildcard teams.

 

- Cleveland beats Houston and Jets but lose to Cincy.  Finish 11-6 and the 5 seed.

- Cincy wins out.  This makes them 11-6 and the 6 seed since they beat Indy.

- Indy wins out, beating Atl, LV and Hou.  Finish 11-6 and the 7 seed.

- Houston loses to Cleveland and loses to Indy.  This leaves Houston out of the playoffs at 9-8, but gives Cleveland and Indy needed wins to stay above us.

 

So if Buffalo wins out and goes 11-6, if all these other things happen, we are left out as we lose out on tiebreakers.  However, for this to happen, all of the remaining games have to have these exact results:

 

Week 16:  Jax beats Tampa, Cleveland beats Hou, Cincy beats Pitt, Indy beats Atlanta, Miami beats Dallas

Week 17:  Jax beats Carolina, Cleveland beats Jets, Cincy beats KC, Indy beats LV, Miami beats Baltimore

Week 18:  Jax beats Tennesee, Cincy beats Cleveland, Indy beats Houston

 

So in total there are 13 games from week 16 to week 18 where if one of the results above go the other way, we control our own destiny.  So we need 1 good outcome out of 13 games.  Its highly improbable that all the games go this exact way.  I can see Tampa beating Jax this week, Dallas beating Miami, maybe even Pitt winning.  I can def see KC beating Cincy in week 17.  There are a lot of possibilities for us to control our destiny.

I got roasted in an older thread for posting similar stuff. This isn't as crazy and far fetched, the Bills missing out with 11 wins as people think. That said I do believe the Bills make it in with 11 wins, they did it to themselves, their playoff ticket should have been punched weeks ago. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by LarryMadman

[Tim Tindale]

I’m sorry, there is no chance they go 11-6 and miss the playoffs. I don’t care what absurd, needle-thread scenario one comes up with. It’s not going to happen. The notion that just Miami wins at home this weekend AND on the road at Baltimore, after coming up small in every big game this year… and we aren’t even talking about the other 8-6 bubble teams that are all playing backup qb’s right now. I reject it. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

47 minutes ago, Tim Tindale said:

I’m sorry, there is no chance they go 11-6 and miss the playoffs. I don’t care what absurd, needle-thread scenario one comes up with. It’s not going to happen. The notion that just Miami wins at home this weekend AND on the road at Baltimore, after coming up small in every big game this year… and we aren’t even talking about the other 8-6 bubble teams that are all playing backup qb’s right now. I reject it. 

Thank you.  As has been pointed out, anyone that thinks missing out at 11-6 is even “somewhat probable” should put some money on a huge parlay, as it will pay nicely for them.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

57 minutes ago, LarryMadman said:

I got roasted in an older thread for posting similar stuff. This isn't as crazy and far fetched, the Bills missing out with 11 wins as people think. That said I do believe the Bills make it in with 11 wins, they did it to themselves, their playoff ticket should have been punched weeks ago. 

 

Odds wise, are they not more likely to make it in with 10 wins then they are to miss the playoffs with 11?

 

Basically a 13 team ML parlay has to hit. And the majority of these games are near even money type spreads. Not like +300 or +500 dogs needing to pull off the upset. 

 

You would win a ton of money in Vegas hitting a 13 team parlay. 

[djp14150]

Buffalo clinches WC with a WW and 3 of the 4 occur and CLE is at 10+ W. Basically BUF, CLE and onr other team for WC can get to 10+ wins.

 

1. CIN LL( can’t get to 10 wins)

2. PIT L one ( can’t get to 10 wins)

3. DEN L one ( can’t get to 10 wins)

4.afc South you have only 1 teams that can get to 10 wins in 2nd place. The simplest one is if HOU and IND both Lose a game in next 2 because they play each other in week 18. 
 

If CLE goes LL then it adds other scenarios because they play CIN in week 18. If CIN L just one then VLE-CIN week 18 means only one of them can get to 10 wins which opens up another WC spot.

 

Also if JAX goes LL can add other wrinkles.
 

End of day—BUF at 10 W and at most  2 other WC teams can get go 10+ W.  
 

BUF can’t get top seed. They can get #2 seed with winning div at 11 wins,BALW one,  KC L a game, and the south winner is under 11 wins. If BUF, BAL, KC are all at 11-6 it goes KC, BAL, BUF. KC better conf rec, BAL over BUF by common games ( CIN, JAX, MIA, LAC) BAL 4-1 vs 3-2 by BUF.

 

 

 

[Doc]

It is actually improbable that the Bills win out and miss the playoffs.  Just taking a cursory glance at the schedule, I can’t see the Stroud-less Texans beating the Browns tomorrow or the Colts beating the Texans (assuming Stroud returns by then) the last game of the season.

[Ecmic82]

I do believe this is the only scenario in which the Bills win out but miss the playoffs.

 

a shorthand for the Bills to go 10-7 and still make the playoffs is:

 

Denver and Pittsburgh lose 1 more game, and

2 of Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, and Jacksonville lose 2 more games.

 

(other scenarios exist, including paths where the Browns lose 3 games, but are somewhat less probable 😉)

 

if you’d like to mitigate the emotional toll of the worst-case scenario, you can get north of 1000-1 odds on the 13 leg parlay.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Ecmic82

[boater]

"somewhat probable scenario"

 

I wonder what is somewhat probable in statistics. Is it .5 to .7 maybe?

 

67% of statistics are made up on the spot.

[Motorin']

20 minutes ago, boater said:

"somewhat probable scenario"

 

I wonder what is somewhat probable in statistics. Is it .5 to .7 maybe?

 

67% of statistics are made up on the spot.

 

I think the more accurate assessment is the "somewhat improbable, but not impossible scenario" 

[strive_for_five_guy]

20 minutes ago, boater said:

"somewhat probable scenario"

 

I wonder what is somewhat probable in statistics. Is it .5 to .7 maybe?

 

67% of statistics are made up on the spot.

I’m told somewhat probable equals < 1%.

[BufBills83]

Its not even remotely likely they miss the playoffs at 11-6.  As I mentioned in my previous post, only 1 of the 13 games I listed has to go the opposite way I mentioned for us to control our own destiny, i.e. make the playoffs at 11-6.  Thats why our probability to make it is greater than 99%.  The chances of all 13 of those games' outcomes going that exact way is super low.

[LarryMadman]

3 hours ago, BufBills83 said:

Its not even remotely likely they miss the playoffs at 11-6.  As I mentioned in my previous post, only 1 of the 13 games I listed has to go the opposite way I mentioned for us to control our own destiny, i.e. make the playoffs at 11-6.  Thats why our probability to make it is greater than 99%.  The chances of all 13 of those games' outcomes going that exact way is super low.

I agree but all these other teams are also playing for their playoff lives like the Bills as somebody will be left out. 

[TheWeatherMan]

This “somewhat probable” scenario all ready highly improbable after 20 minutes into the first game 😂 

[Billznut]

This thread now can officially be placed in the dungeon of TBD as dead and buried. 

[Mikie2times]

6 minutes ago, Billznut said:

This thread now can officially be placed in the dungeon of TBD as dead and buried. 

It survived all of the first game of week 16. 

[GoBills808]

6 hours ago, Motorin&#x27; said:

 

I think the more accurate assessment is the "somewhat improbable, but not impossible scenario" 

Not somewhat improbable lol

 

More like almost completely impossible 

 

 

[HappyDays]

I won't lie, I was still a tad nervous despite knowing it was extremely improbable to win out and miss the playoffs. I was going to be restless until it was a sure thing... Now we know. The Bills control their own destiny.

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Not somewhat improbable lol

 

More like almost completely impossible 

 

 

 

It would be funny if this scenario went up in smoke in the first of 13 games needed....

 

But the Bills need to win, that's more important than anything really. 

[Bills!Win!]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I won't lie, I was still a tad nervous despite knowing it was extremely improbable to win out and miss the playoffs. I was going to be restless until it was a sure thing... Now we know. The Bills control their own destiny.

 Good practice for the playoffs. Go in with a full head of steam

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I won't lie, I was still a tad nervous despite knowing it was extremely improbable to win out and miss the playoffs. I was going to be restless until it was a sure thing... Now we know. The Bills control their own destiny.

I believe we can still finish 11-6 and if the Browns lose just 1 game and Colts or Texans win out, they would hold the tie breaker. Mind you, all 3 can't have this occur because they play each other, but 2 of the 3 scenarios can happen which would lock up the two Wild Cards. By all means correct me if I'm wrong. But Cleveland with one more AFC loss has a better conference record and the same is true of either Houston or Indy if they win out.