The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[JohnNord]

20 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

Somewhat probably = 0.01% chance.

[HOUSE]

Season is over, thanks 

[QLBillsFan]

5 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

And I'm impressed by how nasty people can get by the use of a single word.  You'd think I insulted people's mothers or something.

I don’t see any nasty. Your premise is based on a word that almost to a person is seen as not correct to your scenario. It’s evident you care and put some time into it so cheers 🍻. But it’s implausible. Using that word it’s a valid scenario. 

[ImpactCorey]

3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

I don’t see any nasty. Your premise is based on a word that almost to a person is seen as not correct to your scenario. It’s evident you care and put some time into it so cheers 🍻. But it’s implausible. Using that word it’s a valid scenario. 

Thanks for your feedback.  Perhaps you missed the posts calling me names or using various insults about the validity of the topic's existence in the first place.  Fortunately it's just a few bad actors.  Most people have been awesome, however!

Edited December 23, 2023 by ImpactCorey

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

21 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

 

So which tie breaker is it that knocks the Bills out when all 4 are tied at 11-6

[BufBills83]

So I actually figured out the scenario that leaves the Bills out of the playoffs at 11-6.

 

- Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore, and loses to Buffalo.  Miami wins division at 12-5.

- Baltimore wins enough games to win division, but loses to Miami.

- Jacksonville wins division by winning out and going 11-6.

- KC loses to Cincy but wins their other 2 games, finish 11-6 and win division.

 

Those are the division winners.  Now for the wildcard teams.

 

- Cleveland beats Houston and Jets but lose to Cincy.  Finish 11-6 and the 5 seed.

- Cincy wins out.  This makes them 11-6 and the 6 seed since they beat Indy.

- Indy wins out, beating Atl, LV and Hou.  Finish 11-6 and the 7 seed.

- Houston loses to Cleveland and loses to Indy.  This leaves Houston out of the playoffs at 9-8, but gives Cleveland and Indy needed wins to stay above us.

 

So if Buffalo wins out and goes 11-6, if all these other things happen, we are left out as we lose out on tiebreakers.  However, for this to happen, all of the remaining games have to have these exact results:

 

Week 16:  Jax beats Tampa, Cleveland beats Hou, Cincy beats Pitt, Indy beats Atlanta, Miami beats Dallas

Week 17:  Jax beats Carolina, Cleveland beats Jets, Cincy beats KC, Indy beats LV, Miami beats Baltimore

Week 18:  Jax beats Tennesee, Cincy beats Cleveland, Indy beats Houston

 

So in total there are 13 games from week 16 to week 18 where if one of the results above go the other way, we control our own destiny.  So we need 1 good outcome out of 13 games.  Its highly improbable that all the games go this exact way.  I can see Tampa beating Jax this week, Dallas beating Miami, maybe even Pitt winning.  I can def see KC beating Cincy in week 17.  There are a lot of possibilities for us to control our destiny.

[Malazan]

3 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I get that your own policy would restrict yourself from posting as well.  Maybe you meant creating topics vs posting within topics?  Would have been funnier if you didn't screw it up.

 

Maybe putting it into practice would be best. How about you don't post anymore until you have 1,000 posts. Give it a few years and I think you'll figure it out.

[strive_for_five_guy]

44 minutes ago, BufBills83 said:

So I actually figured out the scenario that leaves the Bills out of the playoffs at 11-6.

 

- Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore, and loses to Buffalo.  Miami wins division at 12-5.

- Baltimore wins enough games to win division, but loses to Miami.

- Jacksonville wins division by winning out and going 11-6.

- KC loses to Cincy but wins their other 2 games, finish 11-6 and win division.

 

Those are the division winners.  Now for the wildcard teams.

 

- Cleveland beats Houston and Jets but lose to Cincy.  Finish 11-6 and the 5 seed.

- Cincy wins out.  This makes them 11-6 and the 6 seed since they beat Indy.

- Indy wins out, beating Atl, LV and Hou.  Finish 11-6 and the 7 seed.

- Houston loses to Cleveland and loses to Indy.  This leaves Houston out of the playoffs at 9-8, but gives Cleveland and Indy needed wins to stay above us.

 

So if Buffalo wins out and goes 11-6, if all these other things happen, we are left out as we lose out on tiebreakers.  However, for this to happen, all of the remaining games have to have these exact results:

 

Week 16:  Jax beats Tampa, Cleveland beats Hou, Cincy beats Pitt, Indy beats Atlanta, Miami beats Dallas

Week 17:  Jax beats Carolina, Cleveland beats Jets, Cincy beats KC, Indy beats LV, Miami beats Baltimore

Week 18:  Jax beats Tennesee, Cincy beats Cleveland, Indy beats Houston

 

So in total there are 13 games from week 16 to week 18 where if one of the results above go the other way, we control our own destiny.  So we need 1 good outcome out of 13 games.  Its highly improbable that all the games go this exact way.  I can see Tampa beating Jax this week, Dallas beating Miami, maybe even Pitt winning.  I can def see KC beating Cincy in week 17.  There are a lot of possibilities for us to control our destiny.

Highly improbable aka somewhat probable?

[BufBills83]

24 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Highly improbable aka somewhat probable?

Lol what?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, BufBills83 said:

So I actually figured out the scenario that leaves the Bills out of the playoffs at 11-6.

 

- Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore, and loses to Buffalo.  Miami wins division at 12-5.

- Baltimore wins enough games to win division, but loses to Miami.

- Jacksonville wins division by winning out and going 11-6.

- KC loses to Cincy but wins their other 2 games, finish 11-6 and win division.

 

Those are the division winners.  Now for the wildcard teams.

 

- Cleveland beats Houston and Jets but lose to Cincy.  Finish 11-6 and the 5 seed.

- Cincy wins out.  This makes them 11-6 and the 6 seed since they beat Indy.

- Indy wins out, beating Atl, LV and Hou.  Finish 11-6 and the 7 seed.

- Houston loses to Cleveland and loses to Indy.  This leaves Houston out of the playoffs at 9-8, but gives Cleveland and Indy needed wins to stay above us.

 

So if Buffalo wins out and goes 11-6, if all these other things happen, we are left out as we lose out on tiebreakers.  However, for this to happen, all of the remaining games have to have these exact results:

 

Week 16:  Jax beats Tampa, Cleveland beats Hou, Cincy beats Pitt, Indy beats Atlanta, Miami beats Dallas

Week 17:  Jax beats Carolina, Cleveland beats Jets, Cincy beats KC, Indy beats LV, Miami beats Baltimore

Week 18:  Jax beats Tennesee, Cincy beats Cleveland, Indy beats Houston

 

So in total there are 13 games from week 16 to week 18 where if one of the results above go the other way, we control our own destiny.  So we need 1 good outcome out of 13 games.  Its highly improbable that all the games go this exact way.  I can see Tampa beating Jax this week, Dallas beating Miami, maybe even Pitt winning.  I can def see KC beating Cincy in week 17.  There are a lot of possibilities for us to control our destiny.

Thank you for the breakdown! Can you imagine the hysteria around here if we somehow go into week 18 with not a single game going our way yet?

 

 

[Saxum]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Thank you for the breakdown! Can you imagine the hysteria around here if we somehow go into week 18 with not a single game going our way yet?

 

 

I can see lots of mob posts.

[NickelCity]

It's been covered ad nauseam but "somewhat probable" is killing me lol. 

[uticaclub]

So a 13 game parlay

[ProcessTruster]

only on this board would you see just an OP. 

[loedward22]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:47 PM, Doc Brown said:

Just to make it easier if the Bills win on Saturday we need only one of the following teams to lose this weekend to control our own destiny:

-Fish, Jags, Bungles, Brownies, or Colts

And to put that in perspective - a $100 parlay on those five as money line winners gets you about $2000

[Airseven]

Doesn’t “somewhat probable” just mean “possible”?

[stevestojan]

I’m not reading 10 pages here, but can someone confirm this: 

 

If the Steelers beat the bengals today, we are then 100% in if we win out, correct? 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:33 PM, ColoradoBills said:

"May your armpits be infested with the fleas of a thousand camels".

Crotch 

[Motorin']

14 minutes ago, stevestojan said:

I’m not reading 10 pages here, but can someone confirm this: 

 

If the Steelers beat the bengals today, we are then 100% in if we win out, correct? 

 

There are 13 games over the next three weeks where if just one of them goes our way then we are 100% in if we win out. 

 

Steelers over Bengals is one of the five scenarios just this week that would make that possible.

[LarryMadman]

On 12/22/2023 at 8:50 AM, Scott7975 said:

The Dolphins have a scenario where they don't make it as well.  That would make my year.  I hate Dolphin fans with a passion.

 

Only difference between the Dolphins missing in this scenario the OP has with the Bills missing scenario, is Miami would only have 10 wins to the Bills 11 wins.

 

Dolphins missing would be great though.