The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[strive_for_five_guy]

  On 12/22/2023 at 5:01 PM, Eastport bills said:

These scenarios will be disposable after this weekend. More likely is our winning the division or out of the playoffs with the results of the Dolphins game. 

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If Miami wins their next two games, our only hope will be as a wild card.  And while Miami winning their next two is not probable, it’s even less probable that 10+ other games go a certain way.  My point is, even if we win all of our games, Wild Card just as easily could be our path in still, versus winning the division.

[Buffalo03]

  On 12/22/2023 at 4:47 AM, Doc Brown said:

Just to make it easier if the Bills win on Saturday we need only one of the following teams to lose this weekend to control our own destiny:

-Fish, Jags, Bungles, Brownies, or Colts

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I'm pretty sure I saw if the Bengals lose Saturday before we play and we win, we would be in a playoff spot and no matter what the other outcomes are in the other games, we don't fall out of it. We can fall from 6th to 7th but won't lose a spot. From there, just keep winning

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

  On 12/22/2023 at 5:13 PM, Einstein said:

I don't need a configurator, I have math.

For example (here is one scenario)

 

Bills win out = 11-6

 

Texans beat the Browns, Titans, Colts = Are 11-6

Browns beat the Bengals and Jets  = Are 11-6

Ravens lose their last three = Are 11-6

Result

Browns win the division at 11-6, winning the tie-breaker over the Ravens.

the Ravens, Texans, and Browns are the wild cards. 

Bills would be out.

Again, the Browns losing against the Texans is not what we want, regardless of Bills finishing 11-6 or not.

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Well yea if the browns can win the division and win a wildcard at the same time then that changes things 😂. I’m still tryin to work out what would really happen with the games you picked but the bills would be in I’m almost positive because you killed off the colts and bengals 

[Buffalo03]

  On 12/22/2023 at 4:55 AM, Doc Brown said:

Belichick went 11-5 with Matt freaking Cassel.

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On a team that went 16-0 the year before and an extremely easy schedule 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Buffalo03

[frostbitmic]

I think the more likely scenario there ...

 

1. Ravens 13-4

2. Bills       11-6

3. Chiefs   11-6

4. Jaguars 10-7

5. Browns 11-6

6. Miami   10-7

7. Colts     10-7

 

In this scenario the Bills would see the Dolphins and the Chiefs in Buffalo... OOOPS ... My bad. The Colts and winner of Dolphins vs Chiefs would come to Buffalo

Edited December 22, 2023 by frostbitmic

[Einstein]

  On 12/22/2023 at 5:25 PM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Well yea if the browns can win the division and win a wildcard at the same time then that changes things 😂. I’m still tryin to work out what would really happen with the games you picked but the bills would be in I’m almost positive because you killed off the colts and bengals 

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You’re right.

 

There is something severely wrong with my spreadsheet, I just don’t know what it is.

 

Apologies.

 

There is still something missing though. If the Browns/Texans game didn’t matter (either result combined with the Bills winning out made the playoffs), then we wouldn’t have 99% odds. It would be 100%.

[Saxum]

  On 12/22/2023 at 4:08 PM, Nineforty said:

This is as useful as a poopy flavored lollipop

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Thank you for contributing to that taste.

[NeverOutNick]

  On 12/22/2023 at 5:33 PM, frostbitmic said:

I think the more likely scenario there ...

 

1. Ravens 13-4

2. Bills       11-6

3. Chiefs   11-6

4. Jaguars 10-7

5. Browns 11-6

6. Miami   10-7

7. Colts     10-7

 

In this scenario the Bills would see the Dolphins and the Chiefs in Buffalo

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This would be awesome 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

  On 12/22/2023 at 5:35 PM, Einstein said:

 

You’re right.

 

There is something severely wrong with my spreadsheet, I just don’t know what it is.

 

Apologies.

 

There is still something missing though. If the Browns/Texans game didn’t matter (either result combined with the Bills winning out made the playoffs), then we wouldn’t have 99% odds. It would be 100%.

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Yea I notice a lot when teams are already called guaranteed in and some of the configurators will say 99.9% still…I wonder if there’s some crazy 1 in a million chance that a bunch of people tie or something…or it’s just something about the way they run the simulations. Either way though it’s just a tiny piece of mind thing if that’s the first game that lets us control our own destiny so it’s not like you’re way off base…there’s still a bunch of different games that would have to go against us to cause that scenario so that Texans win probably would end up being meaningless for that anyway 

[Success]

The suspense is killing me.

 

All of our questions will be answered 2 weeks from Sunday.  The Bills should never do this to us again while Allen is QB.  There is no reason why we should be looking at scenarios to MAKE the playoffs in late December. 

 

Maybe that sounds entitled.  

 

 

[QLBillsFan]

It’s not somewhat possible. It’s a 1% possible. 

[Reks Ryan]

  On 12/22/2023 at 5:25 PM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Well yea if the browns can win the division and win a wildcard at the same time then that changes things 😂. I’m still tryin to work out what would really happen with the games you picked but the bills would be in I’m almost positive because you killed off the colts and bengals 

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That would be a new and interesting wrinkle, to allow the Browns to get 2 playoff spots.  Make-up to Browns fans for all the bad karma and losses they've experienced in the last 50 years.   If the seeding matches up so they play themselves do they just get a bye?  And if they have to play 2 games the same weekend in different cities do they roll out a split squad, like in MLB spring training. 

 

@Einstein please help explain how this will work?

[26TrapDraw]

  On 12/22/2023 at 5:57 PM, Success said:

The suspense is killing me.

 

All of our questions will be answered 2 weeks from Sunday.  The Bills should never do this to us again while Allen is QB.  There is no reason why we should be looking at scenarios to MAKE the playoffs in late December. 

 

Maybe that sounds entitled.  

 

 

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We should feel entitled. With Allen as our QB we have the right. You know what else gives us the right to be entitled?

Sucking ass for 17 seasons straight.

[ColoradoBills]

All this "probable" scenario gets thrown out the window if the Steelers beat the Bengals tomorrow afternoon.

 

If that happens the Buffalo Bills hold their playoff destiny in their hands when they take the field tomorrow night.

[ImpactCorey]

  On 12/22/2023 at 5:07 PM, Gugny said:

I don’t think “probable” means what you think it means, Corky. 

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Like many words, probable has multiple meanings.

  Quote

affording ground for belief.

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I even lowered expectations by saying it "somewhat" or "in some part" had some grounds for believing it could happen.

 

So yeah, it means exactly what I intended, Grungy.

 

[NewEra]

  On 12/22/2023 at 6:27 PM, ColoradoBills said:

All this "probable" scenario gets thrown out the window if the Steelers beat the Bengals tomorrow afternoon.

 

If that happens the Buffalo Bills hold their playoff destiny in their hands when they take the field tomorrow night.

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But…… Mason Rudolph

[Big Blitz]

Every simulation has Colts and Browns in

 

Texans missing at 10-7 and the other 7 loss teams losing a game. 
 

That’s why I’m rooting for Cleveland this week. And the Colts beat Houston week 18.  
 

Then 10-7 would get us in.  

[Nephilim17]

probable

adjective

 

likely to happen, to exist or to be true

 

 

possible

adjective

 [not usually before noun] that can be done or achieved

 

https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/us/

[strive_for_five_guy]

  On 12/22/2023 at 5:33 PM, frostbitmic said:

I think the more likely scenario there ...

 

1. Ravens 13-4

2. Bills       11-6

3. Chiefs   11-6

4. Jaguars 10-7

5. Browns 11-6

6. Miami   10-7

7. Colts     10-7

 

In this scenario the Bills would see the Dolphins and the Chiefs in Buffalo... OOOPS ... My bad. The Colts and winner of Dolphins vs Chiefs would come to Buffalo

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Actually, in this scenario, we’d either host the Chiefs in Divisional Round, or winner of Jags/Browns.  If Dolphins beat Chiefs, they’d go to Baltimore.

[ImpactCorey]

  On 12/22/2023 at 6:48 PM, Nephilim17 said:

probable

adjective

 

likely to happen, to exist or to be true

 

 

possible

adjective

 

 [not usually before noun] that can be done or achieved

 

https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/us/

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I'm not sure how reliable the Oxford "Learners" Dictionary is because it is targeted toward those just learning English (and therefore not a complete reference), but I generally rely on the Oxford English Dictionary which includes all 11 definitions including

 

  Quote

Having an appearance of truth; that may in view of present evidence be reasonably expected to happen or be the case

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