The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[NewEra]

Thanks for putting in the work!  That’s something I wanted to know 💯 

[eball]

1 hour ago, ImpactCorey said:

You need to factor in the entire sentence together.  I’m saying in a world where the Bills win out and still miss the playoffs this is the most likely scenario where it happens.  There are other (not many) extremely unlikely scenarios not worth talking about.  I’m a statistics guy and got curious what some of those less than 1% chance scenarios looked like.  I figured others might be too and shared my work.  It doesn’t mean I want (or even think) it will actually happen

 

it is also important to note that simulators just brute force the possible win/loss records without factoring in match ups or anything.  When you look at the actual remaining schedules for teams and the likelihood of outcomes based on Vegas odds I think you’ll find it is slightly more possible than the less than 1% suggests.

 

While I understand what you are getting at, a “statistics guy” shouldn’t use phrases like “somewhat probable”…the word probable means more likely than not…so >50% chance.  The odds are not remotely close to 50% that the Bills will miss the playoffs if they win out.

 

[Bferra13]

Closeted Bengals fan trolling? No way they win out. Not probable at all.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Bferra13

[BuffaloBillies]

9 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

 

If these 4 teams ended up 11-6, I THINK it first goes to AFC record as the tie breaker, does it not? If so, Bengals would be 6-6 and we would be 7-5. I think everyone assumes Bengals over us if same overall record (due to head-to-head), but not so if multiple teams are involved in the tie breaker. Please correct me if I'm wrong on that. 

 

I'm guessing the >99% thing has to do with some team(s) tying each other in certain games. 

[Gregg]

Miami is losing at least one game to the Cowboys or Ravens. Maybe both. The Bills just need to handle their business against the Bolts and Pats and that final game will be for the division. 

[Marcus Aurelius]

9 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

"May your armpits be infested with the fleas of a thousand camels".

[ImpactCorey]

31 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

The Dolphins have a scenario where they don't make it as well.  That would make my year.  I hate Dolphin fans with a passion.

 

This scenario is very similar to the one I laid out!  The main difference is Miami losing out instead of winning 2 of 3.  That's the swing between Miami missing and Buffalo missing.

17 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

Closeted Bengals fan trolling? No way they win out. Not probable at all.

I could be.  Or maybe a long-time Bills fan that has become so accustomed to heartbreak that I agonize over even the least likely of possibilities.  😅

[Simon]

29 minutes ago, eball said:

 

While I understand what you are getting at, a “statistics guy” shouldn’t use phrases like “somewhat probable”…the word probable means more likely than not…so >50% chance.  The odds are not remotely close to 50% that the Bills will miss the playoffs if they win out.

 

 

The wording was a little unclear but I think what he meant was that of all the weird scenarios where the Bills win out and still miss the playoffs, this one in particular was more probable than any other scenarios where they win out and miss the playoffs.

Perhaps he's a statistician and not an English major. 

[Captain Hindsight]

9 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Belichick went 11-5 with Matt freaking Cassel.

With a team that went undefeated the previous season. Impressive but Cassel started for a few years after that year, he wasn't a complete scrub

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

The only way the Bills don't make the playoffs is if teams conspire against them in week 18, blowing games on purpose to keep the streaking Bills out of it. 

[McBean]

10 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

0% chance this happens.

[Kellyhero68]

This week Jags play at Bucs without Trevor Lawrence, 

Bengals play at Steelers without JaaMar Chase,

Colts play at Falcons without three players they suspended.

Texans play Cleveland without Stroud,

 

If either the Jags, Texans, Colts or Bengals lose and the Bills beat the Chargers they move into the sixth or seventh seed.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Bengals are not winning out. They’re more likely to lose all 3 games than winning all three. 

 

I feel the same way about the Colts. Maybe even more so then the Bengals. Colts have a very easy final three games on paper but the Colts themselves are an average team. They could easily blow any of the three games. 

 

The Bengals have a far tougher schedule, but they have at least looked like a very good team still. Browning is playing exceptionally well. 

 

Honestly, the most likely of all is the Dolphins going 1-1 or even 0-2 in their next two games. 

I'd be interested in playoff clinching scenarios for the Bills before week 18. Let's start to have some luck go our way this week. 

[Gregg]

Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I feel the same way about the Colts. Maybe even more so then the Bengals. Colts have a very easy final three games on paper but the Colts themselves are an average team. They could easily blow any of the three games. 

 

The Bengals have a far tougher schedule, but they have at least looked like a very good team still. Browning is playing exceptionally well. 

 

Honestly, the most likely of all is the Dolphins going 1-1 or even 0-2 in their next two games. 

 

Have to think the Dolphins will see a pissed off Cowboys team this week. The last time they got blown out (SF) they went to win five straight. Let's hope that repeats itself at least for this week then "F" Dallas.

[boyst]

I have not been through the entire thread here, particularly using that New York times simulator where it just guesses is silly. The ESPN playoff machine is much more reasonable to tinker with.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

You need to factor in the entire sentence together.  I’m saying in a world where the Bills win out and still miss the playoffs this is the most likely scenario where it happens.  There are other (not many) extremely unlikely scenarios not worth talking about.  I’m a statistics guy and got curious what some of those less than 1% chance scenarios looked like.  I figured others might be too and shared my work.  It doesn’t mean I want (or even think) it will actually happen

 

it is also important to note that simulators just brute force the possible win/loss records without factoring in match ups or anything.  When you look at the actual remaining schedules for teams and the likelihood of outcomes based on Vegas odds I think you’ll find it is slightly more possible than the less than 1% suggests.

The Bengals have lost 7 of their last 8 games vs the Browns, and many of the losses have been absolute blowouts. They lost 24-3 earlier this year.

[ImpactCorey]

30 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

 

If these 4 teams ended up 11-6, I THINK it first goes to AFC record as the tie breaker, does it not? If so, Bengals would be 6-6 and we would be 7-5. I think everyone assumes Bengals over us if same overall record (due to head-to-head), but not so if multiple teams are involved in the tie breaker. Please correct me if I'm wrong on that. 

 

I'm guessing the >99% thing has to do with some team(s) tying each other in certain games. 

Thanks for bringing this up!  You got me looking deeper into this and boy does it get tricky.

 

First thing that happens is division leaders are determined.  Given my scenario, Miami, Baltimore, and KC have the best records so they get it.  However, in the AFC South, Jax and Indy would be tied but Jax would have the head-to-head so they get it.  On to figuring out the wildcards!

 

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

 

The rules state that when you have 3 or more teams tied across divisions, you basically keep using divisional rankings and compare the leaders.

 

So you start with Buffalo, Indy, and figure out the leader of Cleveland and Cincy.  This ends up being Cleveland because while the head-to-head would be tied, Cincy has the better conference record.   Of Buffalo, Indy, and Cleveland only Indy and Cleveland played each other so head-to-head can't be used and moves on to conference record.  That goes to between Indy and Cleveland who would both be 8-4.  With one team removed from the tie, this RE-applies head-to-head so Cleveland gets the first wildcard!

 

Next battle goes between Buffalo, Cincy, and Indy.  Both Buffalo and Indy lost to Cincy, so Cincy is in!

 

Final spot goes to either Buffalo and Indy who didn't face each other.  But as we established earlier, Indy has the better conference record so they get it.

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

The wording was a little unclear but I think what he meant was that of all the weird scenarios where the Bills win out and still miss the playoffs, this one in particular was more probable than any other scenarios where they win out and miss the playoffs.

Perhaps he's a statistician and not an English major. 

My SAT scores would confirm this!

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Any one of the Dolphins, Bengals, Jags, or Texans loss this week and the Bills control their own destiny by winning out. It's that simple this week.

 

Someone earlier said Browns but I don't think that is true.  Browns need to drop 2 games IIRC.

We are def Browns fans over Texan fans this week.

[ImpactCorey]

13 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bengals have lost 7 of their last 8 games vs the Browns, and many of the losses have been absolute blowouts. They lost 24-3 earlier this year.

I hear ya.  However, that game was their first of the year when gimpy Burrow was basically a liability on the field.  He only threw for 82 yards!  There is no way its a blow out the next time they face.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

38 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

I hear ya.  However, that game was their first of the year when gimpy Burrow was basically a liability on the field.  He only threw for 82 yards!  There is no way its a blow out the next time they face.

I just can’t see cincy beating the chiefs AND browns though and I don’t think it’s likely Miami beats the ravens either…cowboys maybe though. I think Tampa is gonna beat jax this weekend too..  can’t really figure out how Atlanta is a favorite over Indy I don’t think Indy’s losing that game 

 

Houston vs Cleveland this week is interesting too likely two backup qbs starting so who knows lol 

 

just this week we have 5 games with reasonable odds where any 1 going our way lets us control our own destiny.  No one we’d be rooting for is bigger than a 3 point underdog and two are favorites 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan