The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[ImpactCorey]

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

[Einstein]

Yep, it’s possible.

 

Just very improbable.

 

Thus the 99%.

[ColoradoBills]

"May your armpits be infested with the fleas of a thousand camels".

[Rubes]

Well I, for one, appreciated that analysis. Thanks OP.

 

[Mr. WEO]

lol bengals and colts 

[MJS]

Let's hope that doesn't happen. Missing the playoffs with 11 wins, especially after they added a 3rd wild card team, would really suck.

[Doc Brown]

Just to make it easier if the Bills win on Saturday we need only one of the following teams to lose this weekend to control our own destiny:

-Fish, Jags, Bungles, Brownies, or Colts

[chongli]

8 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Well I, for one, appreciated that analysis. Thanks OP.

 

 

Especially from such a new poster! Way to go! [As opposed to the usual "here me out" or duplicate thread or LAMP posts from newbies.]

[ImpactCorey]

6 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

I'm sorry, was this supposed be valuable information? 

Valuable?  No.  But apparently it was interesting enough for you to participate!  Thanks for stopping by.

[chongli]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

Let's hope that doesn't happen. Missing the playoffs with 11 wins, especially after they added a 3rd wild card team, would really suck.

 

The Patriots in 2008 and the Broncos in 1985 finished with 11 wins but failed to make the playoffs. Yikes!

 

https://www.profootballhof.com/news/2013/12/news-fact-or-fiction-an-11-5-team-has-missed-the-playoffs/

[MJS]

Just now, chongli said:

 

The Patriots in 2008 and the Broncos in 1985 finished with 11 wins but failed to make the playoffs. Yikes!

 

https://www.profootballhof.com/news/2013/12/news-fact-or-fiction-an-11-5-team-has-missed-the-playoffs/

Yes, but that was with one fewer wild card team.

[ImpactCorey]

Just now, chongli said:

 

The Patriots in 2008 and the Broncos in 1985 finished with 11 wins but failed to make the playoffs. Yikes!

 

https://www.profootballhof.com/news/2013/12/news-fact-or-fiction-an-11-5-team-has-missed-the-playoffs/

Crazy.  And that's with playing 1 less game!

[ImpactCorey]

Just now, Motorin' said:

 

Troll on with your 107 total posts in five years. Wonderful contribution with your 1 post every 3 or 4 months.

True. Maybe I'll come up with a banger like how much nuggets cost.

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Yes, but that was with one fewer wild card team.

That's true!

[Motorin']

Just now, ImpactCorey said:

True. Maybe I'll come up with a banger like how much nuggets cost.

 

Trolls like nuggets I guess.

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

The Patriots in 2008 and the Broncos in 1985 finished with 11 wins but failed to make the playoffs. Yikes!

 

https://www.profootballhof.com/news/2013/12/news-fact-or-fiction-an-11-5-team-has-missed-the-playoffs/

Belichick went 11-5 with Matt freaking Cassel.

[Big Turk]

27 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

 

There are absolutely NO LOCKS this time of year, so anytime you hear someone say "this game is a lock", they are full of crap...within the last 2 weeks I have heard National Media members talking about "lock" games on the air frequently and at least 5 of these so called "lock games" ended up being losses.  Pretty sure the Falcons thought it was a "lock" they beat the 1 win Panthers last week.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Big Turk

[ImpactCorey]

4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Trolls like nuggets I guess.

I prefer wings on the bone.  Go Bills!

[90sBills]

Bengals are not winning out. They’re more likely to lose all 3 games than winning all three. 

[ImpactCorey]

5 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Bengals are not winning out. They’re more likely to lose all 3 games than winning all three. 

I think you're right about them not winning out but I could see them winning this weekend's match up.

Bengals on a 3 game winning streak while Steelers on a 3 game skid.

Edited December 22, 2023 by ImpactCorey

[Rubes]

8 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Bengals are not winning out. They’re more likely to lose all 3 games than winning all three. 

Don’t be so sure…

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Rubes