Fantasy Playoffs start/sit advice

[Logic]

If there's another thread for this, I apologize. 

Anyone else in their fantasy playoffs or championship this week and agonizing over a start/sit decision? If so, what is it?

For me it's a 12 team full PPR league. I went 13-1 and had a first round bye.

This week, my first dilemma is who to start at RB2 between David Montgomery or D'Andre Swift.

My next dilemma is who to start at my flex spot between Puka Nacua, Devonta Smith, and whichever RB (Montgomery of Swift) I don't start at RB2. Nacua has the highest projected points, but we all know that can be meaningless.

I'm tempted to chase the high ceilings of Swift and Nacua in each spot, respectively, but crippled with indecision.

Any fantasy gurus wanna provide your two cents?

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

If there's another thread for this, I apologize. 

Anyone else in their fantasy playoffs or championship this week and agonizing over a start/sit decision? If so, what is it?

For me it's a 12 team full PPR league. I went 13-1 and had a first round bye.

This week, my first dilemma is who to start at RB2 between David Montgomery or D'Andre Swift.

My next dilemma is who to start at my flex spot between Puka Nacua, Devonta Smith, and whichever RB (Montgomery of Swift) I don't start at RB2. Nacua has the highest projected points, but we all know that can be meaningless.

I'm tempted to chase the high ceilings of Swift and Nacua in each spot, respectively, but crippled with indecision.

Any fantasy gurus wanna provide your two cents?

I was just going to say to go with swift and smith over Nacua, but I see Nacua just scored a TD! So guess I was wrong.

 

what did you do? 
 

 

[PastaJoe]

David Montgomery > D'Andre Swift; look at how DM has done over the last 6 games.

 

If you didn’t play Nacua, I’d play Devonta Smith as the flex.

[Logic]

13 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I was just going to say to go with swift and smith over Nacua, but I see Nacua just scored a TD! So guess I was wrong.

 

what did you do? 
 

 

 

11 hours ago, PastaJoe said:

David Montgomery > D'Andre Swift; look at how DM has done over the last 6 games.

 

If you didn’t play Nacua, I’d play Devonta Smith as the flex.

Thank you both for the input.

Thankfully, I put Nacua in my flex slot at the last minute. Would've been furious with myself if I didn't after last night's game.

The Swift vs Montgomery conundrum remains. I'd normally lean Montgomery, but Gibbs has been eating into his red zone usage big time in recent weeks, and the VIkings have a brick wall of a run defense. Hmmm...

Edited December 22, 2023 by Logic

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

 

Thank you both for the input.

Thankfully, I put Nacua in my flex slot at the last minute. Would've been furious with myself if I didn't after last night's game.

The Swift vs Montgomery conundrum remains. I'd normally lean Montgomery, but Gibbs has been eating into his red zone usage big time in recent weeks, and the VIkings have a brick wall of a run defense. Hmmm...

thankfully I ended up starting Nacua too! 
 

Re swift and Montgomery, I wouldn’t over think it. Both guys are probably going to get 15 touches, and whether they score is a total fluke. I suspect they will come out about the same in the end. 
 

in the playoffs, I do like to look for higher ceiling players. So if you went with that theory, I think swift has the better chance at breaking out.
 

 

[PastaJoe]

My 2 cents. Over the last 6 weeks Montgomery has averaged 14 pts, compared to Swift’s 8.15. Philly has more options to vulture TD runs at the goal line. 

[section122]

16 hours ago, Logic said:

 

Thank you both for the input.

Thankfully, I put Nacua in my flex slot at the last minute. Would've been furious with myself if I didn't after last night's game.

The Swift vs Montgomery conundrum remains. I'd normally lean Montgomery, but Gibbs has been eating into his red zone usage big time in recent weeks, and the VIkings have a brick wall of a run defense. Hmmm...

 

Small but meaningful tip....

 

Never use your flex for thursday night. I'm assuming your wrs are locked but just in case 1 were to get hurt randomly its always a good idea to just switch and leave yourself that flexibility.

 

I hate to give advice on start sit experts favor swift but I favor montgomery lol

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

On 12/22/2023 at 10:38 AM, Logic said:

 

Thank you both for the input.

Thankfully, I put Nacua in my flex slot at the last minute. Would've been furious with myself if I didn't after last night's game.

The Swift vs Montgomery conundrum remains. I'd normally lean Montgomery, but Gibbs has been eating into his red zone usage big time in recent weeks, and the VIkings have a brick wall of a run defense. Hmmm...

what did you end up doing with swift vs DM? Looks like they both had pretty good games. 

[Buffalo716]

I have Etienne and Gibbs and kamara ... 2 spots available ...

 

Who should I play ??

[Logic]

16 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

what did you end up doing with swift vs DM? Looks like they both had pretty good games. 

Played Swift, but there wound up being a negligible difference between their production. Your quote "I think they will come out about the same in the end" proved prophetic.

I'm back in the same Swift vs Montgomery dilemma this week. Championship weekend. Swift has a matchup that looks good on paper vs Arizona. Montgomery has been incredibly consistent in getting between 11-16 points the past several weeks running. I'll likely overthink it right up until game time 😅

[Jauronimo]

Guillotine league championship. PPR. Too many tough calls.

 

QB: Hurts v ARI; or Allen v NE

RB1: Kamara v TB

RB2: Kyren v NYG, Gibbs v DAL, Mostert v BAL

WR1: Tyreek v BAL

WR2: Cee Dee v DET

TE: LaPorta v DAL

Flex: ASB v DAL, Evans v NO, AJ Brown v ARI, Justin Jefferson v GB

K: Elliot v ARI or Aubrey v DET

DEF: CLE v NYJ

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Jauronimo

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Played Swift, but there wound up being a negligible difference between their production. Your quote "I think they will come out about the same in the end" proved prophetic.

I'm back in the same Swift vs Montgomery dilemma this week. Championship weekend. Swift has a matchup that looks good on paper vs Arizona. Montgomery has been incredibly consistent in getting between 11-16 points the past several weeks running. I'll likely overthink it right up until game time 😅

Congrats for making it to the championship! 
 

I made it one league, but in the league where I went all in and was the 1 seed, I lost last week. My opponent had breece hall, who miraculously netted him 45 points and I ended up losing by like 10 points.

 

in the league where I am in the final, my roster has been decimated by injuries. Lost Burrow. My backup is Russell Wilson, who is getting benched by the broncos.  Looks like I may have to start minshew or Flacco—haha.

[Logic]

42 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Congrats for making it to the championship! 
 

I made it one league, but in the league where I went all in and was the 1 seed, I lost last week. My opponent had breece hall, who miraculously netted him 45 points and I ended up losing by like 10 points.

 

in the league where I am in the final, my roster has been decimated by injuries. Lost Burrow. My backup is Russell Wilson, who is getting benched by the broncos.  Looks like I may have to start minshew or Flacco—haha.

It's crazy who we end up starting on fantasy rosters by Championship weekend sometimes.

It takes luck and skill and foresight to have a good fantasy season. But it feels like surviving and advancing in the fantasy playoffs is much more about luck and player health, given how late it is in the season. Then, sometimes NFL teams also do weird things like bench healthy players or make strange lineup choices if they either have seeding locked up or are eliminated from the playoffs and want to evaluate younger players.

All in all, it can be very frustrating to fight and scrap your way to the finals only to have to start a Gardner Minshew and hope for the best. That said, I hope it goes well for you!

Personally, I have never won my home league before. Been consistently in the playoffs and once to the finals, but have not yet won a 'ship. Hoping this is the year!

 

16 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I have Etienne and Gibbs and kamara ... 2 spots available ...

 

Who should I play ??

If it was me, I'd start Gibbs and Kamara. But I consistently make the incorrect choice and then stew over it for weeks, so...take that with a grain of salt.

 

2 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Guillotine league championship. PPR. Too many tough calls.

 

QB: Hurts v ARI; or Allen v NE

RB1: Kamara v TB

RB2: Kyren v NYG, Gibbs v DAL, Mostert v BAL

WR1: Tyreek v BAL

WR2: Cee Dee v DET

TE: LaPorta v DAL

Flex: ASB v DAL, Evans v NO, AJ Brown v ARI, Justin Jefferson v GB

K: Elliot v ARI or Aubrey v DET

DEF: CLE v NYJ

 

That is indeed an unenviable decision making process.

If it was me:

Hurts, Kyren, ASB, Aubrey

But that's just my two cents. Tough decisions all around.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Logic

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

It's crazy who we end up starting on fantasy rosters by Championship weekend sometimes.

It takes luck and skill and foresight to have a good fantasy season. But it feels like surviving and advancing in the fantasy playoffs is much more about luck and player health, given how late it is in the season. Then, sometimes NFL teams also do weird things like bench healthy players or make strange lineup choices if they either have seeding locked up or are eliminated from the playoffs and want to evaluate younger players.

All in all, it can be very frustrating to fight and scrap your way to the finals only to have to start a Gardner Minshew and hope for the best. That said, I hope it goes well for you!

Personally, I have never won my home league before. Been consistently in the playoffs and once to the finals, but have not yet won a 'ship. Hoping this is the year!

 

If it was me, I'd start Gibbs and Kamara. But I consistently make the incorrect choice and then stew over it for weeks, so...take that with a grain of salt.

 

That is indeed an unenviable decision making process.

If it was me:

Hurts, Kyren, ASB, Aubrey

But that's just my two cents. Tough decisions all around.

I like that call

[Buffalo716]

On 12/27/2023 at 3:05 PM, Buffalo716 said:

I like that call

Well.. i was down by 39 in my fantasy championship...

 

And butker and Pickens got me 44!!! Let's go mfr!!