Dallas Offense the #1 Beneficiary of automatic first downs in the NFL.

[MikePJ76]

made a post about this but will make it a topic.  This is is what concerns me for sunday.  Dallas has scored a lot, their offense seems hard to defend but the inside secret to it has been playing bad teams who can not compete at the line of scrimmage with them and then they commit penalties on the back end setting up easy scoring opportunities.

 

This is the number 1 thing to me to this game.  The defense has to be smart and disciplined and not give up 50 yard ticky tack Penalties bailing them out of third downs and setting up easy scores.  They are going to have a hard time defending lamb especially with that deep over he runs and then the speed guys in tolbert and cooks but this is the game.

 

here are some intereting officials notes on this game...from sharp football analysis

 

Craig Wrolstad’s Impact on Cowboys at Bills

The Cowboys take on the Bills in the game of the week, with both teams coming in off statement wins last Sunday.

 

These teams have an interesting history with the officiating crew assigned to this game.

Let’s assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Craig Wrolstad will potentially impact this game.

 

 

Penalty Tendencies:

The Cowboys and Bills are top five penalized teams as we head into the final quarter of the regular season.

Craig Wrolstad is calling 54% of his overall penalties on the home team through 14 weeks of the NFL season

The Cowboys and Bills defenses both rank in the top ten penalized units in surrendering automatic first downs via penalties to opponents in 2023. 

80% of the Cowboys’ automatic first down surrendered via penalty have occurred 1st and 2nd down plays, which is far less damaging

Conversely, 50% of the automatic first downs surrendered via penalty by the Bills defense were on 3rd and 4th down plays, which a far more impactful on a defense

 

The Cowboys offense is the number one beneficiary of automatic first down penalties in the NFL, with 43% of these coming on the key 3rd down plays. The Cowboys offense is the number one beneficiary of illegal contact penalties and ranks second in benefitting from defensive pass interference penalties

 

Conversely, the Bills offense has only half the amount of automatic first down penalties the Cowboys have gained, and just 24% have come via third down plays

 

The Bills are a top-five penalized unit for illegal contact penalties

Craig Wrolstad’s crew is co-ranked second overall in assessing illegal contact penalties

 

The Cowboys lead the NFL in defensive Offside penalties and by a significant margin over the second-ranked team. This was an issue in 2022 and remains the case in 2023

 

The Buffalo offense ranks 29th as a hard count penalty beneficiary. Through 14 weeks, they have drawn one accepted defensive Offside penalty. If ever there is a game to take advantag, this is it. The Bills either don’t emphasize this or their formations don’t create enough pre-snap confusion on the opposing defense to draw offside penalties

The Cowboys and Bills are top ten penalized offenses for offensive holding infractions

The Bills defense is a top-three unit in generating offensive holding penalties on opponents when they play at home. Buffalo has the biggest home versus road splits of any team in this category

 

No team has declined more offensive holding penalties on opponents than the Cowboys in 2023. Translation, they were declined due to a more favorable outcome for the defense on a play. Bottom line is this Dallas defensive unit creates havoc up front in a variety of ways that often aren’t reflected in net penalty numbers

 

Craig Wrolstad’s crew is right at league average in calling offensive holding penalties. They have the largest home versus road split of any crew to this point in 2023, with just 30% being assessed on the road team. There is some randomness in this statistic, but right now it benefits the Cowboys if form holds on Sunday

 

So many NFL games come down to key moments in the fourth quarter. Penalties are part of the equation in winning and losing late. Buffalo is committing 33% of their overall penalties in the fourth quarter of games this season compared to just 25% for Dallas

The Bottom Line:

 

Home teams are 47-73-1 ATS (40%) with Craig Wrolstad since the start of the 2016 NFL season, including a 4-6-1 ATS record in 2023

 

The Buffalo Bills have a mixed record with Wrolstad officiating in the Josh Allen era. Buffalo is 2-4 on the moneyline but 5-1 ATS  in six games, with three of the ATS wins coming as underdogs. Wrolstad most recently officiated the Bills 38-10 win in Week 2 versus the Raiders

Two of the most dramatic games in the Allen era were officiated by Craig Wrolstad. The 33-30 overtime loss vs the Vikings in Week 10, 2022, and in Week 10 of the 2020 season, a 32-30 loss at Arizona on a last-second “Hail Murray” TD pass from Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

The Cowboys are 9-0 on the moneyline and 7-2 ATS in the Dak Prescott era when Craig Wrolstad is officiating, the most recent being their 31-14 Wild Card victory at the Buccaneers last season

 

There were a lot of Week 15 match-ups that merit officiating analysis this week, but we felt compelled to include this game because of its sheer importance in shaping the NFL landscape as we head into the stretch run.

There are a lot of interesting penalty numbers that can be gleaned from this preview that can and will be key on Sunday.

Was last week’s dramatic victory a turning point for Buffalo? As we stated before last week, no team in the AFC wants to see this group sneak into the playoffs.

They will have the most talented player on the field Sunday afternoon, Josh Allen. Dallas has the better overall team.

The vast majority of penalty metrics favor Dallas in this contest, as does the actual officiating assignment itself based on home teams’ struggles with Wrolstad.

 

The Cowboys franchise has lost games with Wrolstad, just not since Dak Prescott arrived in 2016.

Much like the Bills at Chiefs game last week, this is an in-game wagering dream. It is going to be close and either side getting above a field goal is the opportune way to approach it.

Pre flop, it’s a toss of the coin. The likelihood of another Buffalo game ending in sensational circumstances with Craig Wrolstad officiating is very much a possibility on Sunday.

In a game that could easily be 24-23 either way, we will select the Dallas Cowboys +2 points in this match-up.

Edited December 15, 2023 by MikePJ76

[Warcodered]

8 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

The Cowboys offense is the number one beneficiary of automatic first down penalties in the NFL, with 43% of these coming on the key 3rd down plays. The Cowboys offense is the number one beneficiary of illegal contact penalties and ranks second in benefitting from defensive pass interference penalties

Conversely, the Bills offense has only half the amount of automatic first down penalties the Cowboys have gained, and just 24% have come via third down plays

The Bills are a top-five penalized unit for illegal contact penalties

Craig Wrolstad’s crew is co-ranked second overall in assessing illegal contact penalties

The Cowboys lead the NFL in defensive Offside penalties and by a significant margin over the second-ranked team. This was an issue in 2022 and remains the case in 2023

These feel like the penalties that if any are used to effect the game, one team is winning by too much and it needs to be closer and suddenly they don't get any of these calls and the other team suddenly has drives extended by these calls.

[NickelCity]

I hate that the ref assignment has changed my opinion of this game so much. 

[Charles Romes]

NFL needs the Madden cover and leading jersey selling QB in the playoffs, and knows it will be a disaster if a bunch of no name backup QBs are playing.  

[H2o]

3 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

NFL needs the Madden cover and leading jersey selling QB in the playoffs, and knows it will be a disaster if a bunch of no name backup QBs are playing.  

Or the NFL wants to milk every red cent it can out of the Cowboys cash cow. 

[Dick_Cheney]

Honestly I would say that Mahomes and company going crazy about officiating after the last game is good for us in a sense because it likely means that officiating for this game is going to be under the microscope, and I wouldn't doubt it if the league has said something to the ref crews.

 

Or you know. The refs will just continue to totaly suck and exhibit personal bias and we will get hosed in a heartbreaking and catastrophic fashion.

[NickelCity]

2 hours ago, Dick_Cheney said:

Or you know. The refs will just continue to totaly suck and exhibit personal bias and we will get hosed in a heartbreaking and catastrophic fashion.

 

Yahtzee

[Yobogoya!]

3 hours ago, NickelCity said:

I hate that the ref assignment has changed my opinion of this game so much. 

 

I hate that I actually know the names of all the head referees in this league. 

[Southern_Bills]

Well with the stats being that lopsided perhaps they will equal out this game and we will get some calls 🤣.

 

Trying to stay positive. 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

NFL needs the Madden cover and leading jersey selling QB in the playoffs, and knows it will be a disaster if a bunch of no name backup QBs are playing.  

I used to think that narrative would hold up until Hochuli threw 10 flags against us early in the game.  Who knows at this point?

[frostbitmic]

Josh needs to get the Cowboys to jump Offside a lot. Apparently they lead the league in that category. Our DB's will get flagged often though with this crew.

[T master]

So then what you are saying is that the Bills Mafia will have a bunch of pissed off fans during & after the game --- again ??

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

20 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

NFL needs the Madden cover and leading jersey selling QB in the playoffs, and knows it will be a disaster if a bunch of no name backup QBs are playing.  

They should just put Shawn Hochuli on the cover of Madden next year

[TPS]

Thanks for the info. The game is an interesting test related to the topic I started. As important as a penalty call is, so is a no call. I’ll definitely be tuned into their impact on the game. 

[HOUSE]

We are doomed 

[Einstein]

Dallas is a good team but they’re 2-2 against teams with a winning record. Definitley not a juggernaut.

 

8 of their 10 wins against teams with a losing record.

[finn]

On 12/15/2023 at 2:02 PM, Dick_Cheney said:

Honestly I would say that Mahomes and company going crazy about officiating after the last game is good for us in a sense because it likely means that officiating for this game is going to be under the microscope, and I wouldn't doubt it if the league has said something to the ref crews.

The opposite may be true, actually. Mahomes did everyone a disservice by complaining about a perfectly correct call, making legitimate complaints seem like must more whining. He used a lot of capital for no reason except to indulge his petulance.