The Josh Allen Effect

[PBF81]

9 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Right now shaw outside of Philly, SF,Dallas,Baltimore and KC getting in...the QB field looks bleak.

 

Miami too.  

 

And for all the complaining we do about our receivers, in the AFC the only teams that arguably have better receivers than we do are Cincy and Miami.  

 

But Cincy's on a backup QB and Miami has Him and Waddle, that's it.  If one of them goes down they're in a world of hurt and will have to turn to their "Sherfield" again.  

 

Diggs, Davis, Kinaid, and Shakir have about 2,600 Yards & 18 TDs.

 

Chase, Boyd, & Higgins have about 2,100 Yards & 11 TDs.

 

Hill & Waddle have about 2,400 Yards & 15 TDs.  No other receiver on their team has more than 207 yards or 2 TDs.  

 

We easily have the best receiving TE, possibly in the AFC, given Kelce's age & looming retirement.  

 

 

[Watkins101]

12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Miami too.  

 

And for all the complaining we do about our receivers, in the AFC the only teams that arguably have better receivers than we do are Cincy and Miami.  

 

But Cincy's on a backup QB and Miami has Him and Waddle, that's it.  If one of them goes down they're in a world of hurt and will have to turn to their "Sherfield" again.  

 

Diggs, Davis, Kinaid, and Shakir have about 2,600 Yards & 18 TDs.

 

Chase, Boyd, & Higgins have about 2,100 Yards & 11 TDs.

 

Hill & Waddle have about 2,400 Yards & 15 TDs.  No other receiver on their team has more than 207 yards or 2 TDs.  

 

We easily have the best receiving TE, possibly in the AFC, given Kelce's age & looming retirement.  

 

 

Couple things to take into account here: You’re comparing receivers groups based on their total yards/TDs, but not factoring in the effect of the QBs throwing the ball. IMO, Cinci and Miami definitely have better WR groups. And if we’re going based on yards, Texans also have a better WR group.
 

And as for Kincaid, he’s not the best yet. Kelce is still clearly better right now, and Evan Engram and Mark Andrews have both outperformed him so far. (Kincaid is 13th in yards and tied at 20-33 for TDs) 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Watkins101

[4th&long]

I’m not going to say you are wrong but the game before the refs really stuck it to us!

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, Watkins101 said:

Couple things to take into account here: You’re comparing receivers groups based on their total yards/TDs, but not factoring in the effect of the QBs throwing the ball. IMO, Cinci and Miami definitely have better WR groups. 
 

And as for Kincaid, he’s not the best yet. Kelce is still clearly better right now, and Evan Engram and Mark Andrews have both outperformed him so far. (Kincaid is 13th in yards and tied at 20-33 for TDs) 

 

So you think that Baltimore & Jax have better receivers than we did then?  

 

BTW, Kincaid has both the highest Catch% & Success% of any TEs in the league.  ... as a rookie.  

 

 

[Nextmanup]

10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

That's an interesting take.  Makes some sense.   The stars get the calls. 

But it's filled with contradictions.  It's a marketing driven league about money....so then why would anything good EVER happen to KC or Buffalo?

 

It should be all about the 2 LA teams, the 2 NJ teams, and the Bears every year.

 

I do think the "story line" of the Bills almost missing the playoffs but coming back to make them at the last second is dramatic and something the NFL would love to have happen.  Does that mean we will "get calls" in games we otherwise wouldn't have?

 

I doubt it.

 

 

[Drew21PA]

Yet two weeks ago….

 

we got hosed in philly

 

but hey what do I know 

[finn]

10 hours ago, BigDingus said:

It makes sense, but you may be thinking a bit too deep into how the officials are calling these games. 

 

The league certainly tells them which penalties should be prioritized or what needs to be scrutinized more often, but I still don't buy that the refs going into games actively looking to swing certain calls to favor individuals.

 

Little biases & preferences may slip in, so I agree that Allen may get the benefit of the doubt in that regard, but I don't think the league is saying "we want Buffalo in the playoffs," and telling officials to swallow whistles that favor us, throw flags to help the Bills extend drives, or anything of that nature.

I agree there is no league-wide conspiracy to influence games. Too risky. But I think the "little biases and preferences" play a far larger role than most people think. There's a reason betting on sports was illegal until 2018: human beings are easily corrupted, and no one is easier to corrupt than referees, who can so easily argue that this or that call was justified, or they didn't see a given offence. 

 

Money aside, a given ref might just want his team to win. What's to stop him from not seeing, say, a horse-collar tackle when his team is in trouble, and instead seeing intentional grounding? Or throwing 15 flags on one team and one on the other? So there's outrage. So what? It's all forgotten in a week, and you helped your team win.

 

In fact, my biggest concern Sunday is not the matchup, but the refs deliberately calling holding to stall Bills' drives and pass interference to keep Cowboys' drives alive. 

[TPS]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Allen went through a period of getting some calls, but I don't see it much anymore.

It's not just Allen, it's getting the Bills in.  For example, on their last drive for a FG in KC, they got a PI or holding call on a 3rd down which gave them a first down. On the replay, I thought that it was an "iffy" call and nowhere near impacting the play.  As I argue, I don't think they get that call in the Allen-less past.

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

hard one to sell with the Philly game in the last 4 you reference being better for the bills

Sorry if that's what it implies, as I meant these last 4 games (starting Sunday) that they must win in order to make the playoffs.

[TPS]

58 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

But it's filled with contradictions.  It's a marketing driven league about money....so then why would anything good EVER happen to KC or Buffalo?

 

It should be all about the 2 LA teams, the 2 NJ teams, and the Bears every year.

 

I do think the "story line" of the Bills almost missing the playoffs but coming back to make them at the last second is dramatic and something the NFL would love to have happen.  Does that mean we will "get calls" in games we otherwise wouldn't have?

 

I doubt it.

 

 

Marketing isn't always about the largest cities.  Look at the top 10 jersey sales, both Allen and Mahomes are there (as is Hurts).

32 minutes ago, finn said:

In fact, my biggest concern Sunday is not the matchup, but the refs deliberately calling holding to stall Bills' drives and pass interference to keep Cowboys' drives alive. 

This is certainly THE test for the thesis.  Let's revisit the topic next week to see if there's any evidence one way or the other.

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Coldfronts said:

10 years ago I would have laughed and called you out for tin hat wearing.  Today, I consider it to be a plausible theory.  Corruption seems to be the rule not the exception lately 

 

I don’t think it’s corruption. I think it’s good old fashion incompetence. 

[mrags]

People need to stop pointing to the Eagles game. We had every opportunity to win that game and McDermott gave it away. It’s our own fault. 
 

to the point of the OP. I pretty much agree you are right here. Unless some young stud that is on the rise in this league is the other QB I think the big market teams, or the popular teams, or the superstars of the league get the benefit of the doubt. Most of the time. But that doesn’t mean it always happens. Sometimes things are so blatant they can’t not call it. Like Toney being 2ft Offside. 

[H2o]

Wrolstad being assigned to us for a game against Dallas, just as Hochuli was assigned to us in a game against Philadelphia, makes me not buy into this so much. I just want consistency at this point. If Leonard Floyd busts past the OT and his jersey is being pulled about 18" away from his body? Throw the flag. If Allen gets yanked down by his collar and his jersey almost torn in half? Throw the flag. If our receiver is getting mugged a full second before the ball gets there? Throw the flag. If a WR catches the ball, turns, takes two steps, and gets the ball punched out (a CLEAR catch and fumble) at least have the decency to review the play on the field. There should never, IN ANY GAME, be a disparity of 10-1 penalties in a single half of football, with a majority of those penalties negating a team's 1st downs or chunk plays in general. I'm hoping we don't see a situation like that against Dallas on Sunday. I hope they call it even and fair, but I'm not counting on it. 

[Mango]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Patriots/s/cTB4syBWOa
 

Allen has a flipping mixtape (dude grew up watching Levron). Every qb whines about calls and the refs miss a lot for every team because they are really bad this year. 

The Jets face mask bump always makes me laugh. Every. Single. Time. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

But it's filled with contradictions.  It's a marketing driven league about money....so then why would anything good EVER happen to KC or Buffalo?

 

It should be all about the 2 LA teams, the 2 NJ teams, and the Bears every year.

 

I do think the "story line" of the Bills almost missing the playoffs but coming back to make them at the last second is dramatic and something the NFL would love to have happen.  Does that mean we will "get calls" in games we otherwise wouldn't have?

 

I doubt it.

 

 

There are two different thoughts behind this discussion.  One is valid, the other, not so much.  The first thought is that the stars get the calls, and that's what I was responding to.  I believe that's absolutely true.   Not all the time, to be sure, but my impression is that Manning and Brady and Rodgers, for example, got the roughing the passer calls almost as a reflex by the referee, and the unknown young guys don't.  I don't think there's a memo out there that tells the refs to protect the stars; it's just natural.  After all, the officials are fans of the game, too, and they know who the stars are.  They also know defenses want to hit the stars, to try to intimidate them, so the officials actually are expecting the defenses to rough Mahomes more than DeVito.  And I agree that Allen is now moving into that protected class.

 

Do the refs understand that the star QBs are really valuable to the league?  Oh, sure, they do.  And maybe that's running in the back of their heads, too, but they aren't calling games to protect the NFL's business prospects.   That is, they know that it isn't good for the game for Mahomes to get hurt, and that may influence their thinking in some subconscious way, but they aren't out there thinking "I have to protect the NFL."  

 

But the second thought, that somehow this is all orchestrated by the NFL to maximize the likelihood that the right teams get to the Super Bowl, and that therefore the league works to protect certain players in order for their teams to succeed, just doesn't make sense to me.   The NFL isn't like MLB.   World Series ratings go down when small market teams are playing, and MLB loves to have the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Dodgers in the series.  NBA, too.   But the NFL is different.  It's a national game, and fans all over the country watch the playoffs, almost regardless of where the teams come from.   We watch all season long, and we develop this sense of who the great teams are, and we enjoy the matchups of great teams, wherever they come from.   No one is canceling their Super Bowl party because there are small market teams playing.  

 

On the other hand, the NFL knows that they need to market stars.   They need faces to put on ESPN's home page, the Madden cover, and in all their TV promos, and those faces are of 8 or 10 or 12 guys.  Marketing gets harder if half those guys are injured.   So, yes, the NFL doesn't want their stars getting hurt, but for the NFL, what really important is to have really good teams competing, so the NFL doesn't want important players from ANY team going down.   Brock Purdy isn't a star like Mahomes or Allen, at least not yet, but the NFL really doesn't want Brock Purdy going down.   They don't want Burrow, or Lawrence, Tua, or any contender's QB going down.  In other words, because the NFL doesn't need any particular star to succeed, the NFL isn't all that interested in protecting particular stars.  The NFL cares about protecting ALL of them (not because they care about them, but simply because their business model works so long as they have highly skilled players playing really competitive football.

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

There should never, IN ANY GAME, be a disparity of 10-1 penalties in a single half of football, with a majority of those penalties negating a team's 1st downs or chunk plays in general. 

Amen.    It's theoretically possible, of course, but as a practical matter, in a game where a penalty could be called against either team almost on every single play, you're correct.  

 

Think of it this way:  Under the current system, there always are going to be bad calls.   It's a really difficult game to officiate, the plays flash by in an instant, and the official has to make a call.  They're going to make some mistakes.  There are two kinds of bad calls - penalties that are called that shouldn't be, and plays where a penalty shouId have been called and wasn't.  On the plays where nothing is called, they're more likely to fall evenly.   But when the penalties are called, if they're called 5-5 instead of 10-1, it's much more likely that on the plays where a penalty is called, the bad calls will fall evenly.  Bills-Eagles is a good example.   When the penalties go 10-1, you're looking at a game where the officials are not calling the horse collar and ARE calling a week intentional grounding.  

 

If they overhauled the system, if they had a lot of instant review, and significantly reduced the bad calls and the important missed calls, then if the penalties fell 10-1, we'd say, "well, that team is playing really undisciplined football," and we'd probably be right.   But in this environment, when bad calls are happening regularly and missed calls are happening too, 10-1 is fundamentally unfair and the NFL should fix it. 

[TPS]

44 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

There are two different thoughts behind this discussion.  One is valid, the other, not so much.  The first thought is that the stars get the calls, and that's what I was responding to.  I believe that's absolutely true.   Not all the time, to be sure, but my impression is that Manning and Brady and Rodgers, for example, got the roughing the passer calls almost as a reflex by the referee, and the unknown young guys don't.  I don't think there's a memo out there that tells the refs to protect the stars; it's just natural.  After all, the officials are fans of the game, too, and they know who the stars are.  They also know defenses want to hit the stars, to try to intimidate them, so the officials actually are expecting the defenses to rough Mahomes more than DeVito.  And I agree that Allen is now moving into that protected class.

 

Do the refs understand that the star QBs are really valuable to the league?  Oh, sure, they do.  And maybe that's running in the back of their heads, too, but they aren't calling games to protect the NFL's business prospects.   That is, they know that it isn't good for the game for Mahomes to get hurt, and that may influence their thinking in some subconscious way, but they aren't out there thinking "I have to protect the NFL."  

 

But the second thought, that somehow this is all orchestrated by the NFL to maximize the likelihood that the right teams get to the Super Bowl, and that therefore the league works to protect certain players in order for their teams to succeed, just doesn't make sense to me.   The NFL isn't like MLB.   World Series ratings go down when small market teams are playing, and MLB loves to have the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Dodgers in the series.  NBA, too.   But the NFL is different.  It's a national game, and fans all over the country watch the playoffs, almost regardless of where the teams come from.   We watch all season long, and we develop this sense of who the great teams are, and we enjoy the matchups of great teams, wherever they come from.   No one is canceling their Super Bowl party because there are small market teams playing.  

 

On the other hand, the NFL knows that they need to market stars.   They need faces to put on ESPN's home page, the Madden cover, and in all their TV promos, and those faces are of 8 or 10 or 12 guys.  Marketing gets harder if half those guys are injured.   So, yes, the NFL doesn't want their stars getting hurt, but for the NFL, what really important is to have really good teams competing, so the NFL doesn't want important players from ANY team going down.   Brock Purdy isn't a star like Mahomes or Allen, at least not yet, but the NFL really doesn't want Brock Purdy going down.   They don't want Burrow, or Lawrence, Tua, or any contender's QB going down.  In other words, because the NFL doesn't need any particular star to succeed, the NFL isn't all that interested in protecting particular stars.  The NFL cares about protecting ALL of them (not because they care about them, but simply because their business model works so long as they have highly skilled players playing really competitive football.

 

Yes, I was probably a little too strong on stating the Bills will get into the playoffs (must've been the wine last night). The refs can't be blatant, and even if you are getting more calls that go your way, you still have to make plays to win a game (as someone referenced above about the Eagles game). Again, I'll emphasize it's not just getting a call, but no call as well.  Holding can be called on just about any play of a game, on both sides of the ball, and that's a tougher one to know if there's an advantage being given.

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, TPS said:

Yes, I was probably a little too strong on stating the Bills will get into the playoffs (must've been the wine last night). The refs can't be blatant, and even if you are getting more calls that go your way, you still have to make plays to win a game (as someone referenced above about the Eagles game). Again, I'll emphasize it's not just getting a call, but no call as well.  Holding can be called on just about any play of a game, on both sides of the ball, and that's a tougher one to know if there's an advantage being given.

I agree.

 

This whole discussion has been interesting to me.  The people who run the NFL aren't stupid - there's too much money involved to let stupid people run it.   I can't imagine that they don't talk about the extent to which the quality of the officiating and compliance with the rules may damage their product.   Maybe they have changes in the works.  It does seem like the game, and their product, would be better if they could reduce bad calls, if they could be more consistent in their non-calls.

 

Basketball is an interesting comparison.   Because there are many, many more scoring events in basketball, bad calls don't feel like they're such a problem.   A bad call that costs a team a basket in the second quarter just isn't as important as a missed horse collar that costs a team a touchdown in the second quarter.   Yes, at the end of a basket ball game a bad call feels more significant, but the NBA and NCAA even have gotten that under control.   I always told my kids that a bad call in baseball or basketball is just like a bad bounce that causes an error or a loss of possession, it's just another part of the game. And that philosophy works, because there are so many calls that they do tend to even out. 

 

I can say that about a bad call in a football game, and theoretically, it's true.  However, bad calls in football have the potential to be much more consequential, and it simply isn't true that they tend to even out.  The missed horse collar was a major event, and although one might be able to point to missed call or another that went the other way, there isn't one that was (or seemed) nearly as important as that mistake.   Bad calls might even out over a season or over a career, but in a particular football game, bad calls change the outcome.   

[Fleezoid]

Did this just happen? It certainly didn't start before the Eagles game. 

[Irish Dave]

5 hours ago, CSBill said:

I know this is not a popular take, but I really don't think the ref's care who wins or loses. Yes, their calls make a difference, but I doubt there is any discussion or pressure to be favorable to one team or the other for the good of the league. They are human--which is part of the rub--so they will no doubt make bad calls, and at times, their emotions may enter the decision-making process. But intentionally swinging a game one way or the other, I don't buy it.

Dude, it's not that the refs care; it's that they're being told what to do and when; by Vegas Betting honchos.   As an individual game develops, betting keeps happening so odds keep changing by the minute.  Don't you think it's a little strange that these crucial late-game flags suddenly start appearing in critical moments?   Please, someone convince me the refs are not hearing someone in their earphones telling them to throw a flag on this next play or that next play.  As someone said earlier - a flag could be thrown on almost every single play.   So Now that betting is totally legal, and encouraged, I don't think games are necessarily pre- 'rigged', but they most likely ride on constantly moving betting up until very late in the game....

Edited December 15, 2023 by Irish Dave

[Saxum]

14 hours ago, TPS said:

Yeah, it’s why I said I don’t think it’s rigged, but…things do favor certain teams and players. I don’t mean to say they will make a call to throw a game, but making a call OR NOT making a call impacts a game, but may  or may not ultimately change an outcome. The point is, I think the Bills will get more favorable calls than what we were so used to in the drought years because of Josh Allen’s marketability. I embellished a bit in the op. 
 

 

Josh Allen has been marketable for years and Bills were NOT getting the calls.