According to ESPN FPI projections, the Bills have the sixth best chances of making the playoffs

[BillsFan619]

I know all of us would’ve preferred to be primarily battling for the #1 seed, but this is pretty promising, considering where our season was headed for a while.

 

According to this, we even have better odds than the Broncos to make the playoffs. Considering that there are seven teams that make it, pretty promising to be projected sixth.

 

And with the typical late season swoon of the Dolphins, we may just be looking at another division title.

One game at a time. Go 1-0

this week and destroy the Cowboys.

 

Go Bills!

 

Link to full article -https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38890147/2023-nfl-playoffs-afc-nfc-seed-projections-predictions-super-bowl

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by BillsFan619

[BigDingus]

I don't get how we have better odds than Denver, but I'll trust it because it's what I want to hear! 😁

 

But can someone explain WHY our odds are higher? Denver's remaining schedule is:

 

1. Lions (Away)

2. Patriots (Home)

3. Chargers (Home)

4. Raiders (Away) 

Opponent Record 22-30

 

Versus Buffalo's:

 

1. Cowboys (Home)

2. Chargers (Away)

3. Patriots (Home)
4. Dolphins (Away)

Opponent Record: 27-25

 

We both have a 4-5 Conference Record, but they've got the head-to-head tie breaker...

 

ESPN even has us with a 24% chance to win our division and Denver only a 7% chance... despite them only being 1 game behind the 8-5 Chiefs in the West. We're sitting 2 games behind the Dolphins, so are our chances higher because we could sweep the Dolphins & the Broncos only split with KC? What am I missing?!?! 

[mikemac2001]

15 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

I don't get how we have better odds than Denver, but I'll trust it because it's what I want to hear! 😁

 

But can someone explain WHY our odds are higher? Denver's remaining schedule is:

 

1. Lions (Away)

2. Patriots (Home)

3. Chargers (Home)

4. Raiders (Away) 

Opponent Record 22-30

 

Versus Buffalo's:

 

1. Cowboys (Home)

2. Chargers (Away)

3. Patriots (Home)
4. Dolphins (Away)

Opponent Record: 27-25

 

We both have a 4-5 Conference Record, but they've got the head-to-head tie breaker...

 

ESPN even has us with a 24% chance to win our division and Denver only a 7% chance... despite them only being 1 game behind the 8-5 Chiefs in the West. We're sitting 2 games behind the Dolphins, so are our chances higher because we could sweep the Dolphins & the Broncos only split with KC? What am I missing?!?! 

I think bc we can win the div so that’s an easier path with less tie breakers 

 

we have an easier path to win div compared to den 

Edited December 15, 2023 by mikemac2001

[Rew]

18 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

I don't get how we have better odds than Denver, but I'll trust it because it's what I want to hear! 😁

 

But can someone explain WHY our odds are higher? Denver's remaining schedule is:

 

1. Lions (Away)

2. Patriots (Home)

3. Chargers (Home)

4. Raiders (Away) 

Opponent Record 22-30

 

Versus Buffalo's:

 

1. Cowboys (Home)

2. Chargers (Away)

3. Patriots (Home)
4. Dolphins (Away)

Opponent Record: 27-25

 

We both have a 4-5 Conference Record, but they've got the head-to-head tie breaker...

 

ESPN even has us with a 24% chance to win our division and Denver only a 7% chance... despite them only being 1 game behind the 8-5 Chiefs in the West. We're sitting 2 games behind the Dolphins, so are our chances higher because we could sweep the Dolphins & the Broncos only split with KC? What am I missing?!?! 

You aren't including the Dolphins and KC schedules in your view.  The dolphins have a much harder schedule than the chiefs.  Also, we play the dolphins and the broncos do not play the chiefs.  Also, if we tie the dolphins it means we very likely beat them and have tiebreaker.  If broncos tie the chiefs, KC likely still has tie breaker. 

 

The net of this is that we have a (using OP numbers) 24% change of division and 24% of wildcard.  The broncos on the other hand only have a 7% chance of catching the chiefs, but a 37% chance of getting a wildcard spot.  The broncos are more likely to get a wildcard than us, as you suspected.

[chongli]

And the other obvious reason is it's Denver. Do you trust them more than Buffalo?? No one does.

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 minutes ago, Rew said:

You aren't including the Dolphins and KC schedules in your view.  The dolphins have a much harder schedule than the chiefs.  Also, we play the dolphins and the broncos do not play the chiefs.  Also, if we tie the dolphins it means we very likely beat them and have tiebreaker.  If broncos tie the chiefs, KC likely still has tie breaker. 

 

The net of this is that we have a (using OP numbers) 24% change of division and 24% of wildcard.  The broncos on the other hand only have a 7% chance of catching the chiefs, but a 37% chance of getting a wildcard spot.  The broncos are more likely to get a wildcard than us, as you suspected.

Yep, half of our chance is

the divisional element.  If we win this week, I expect our odds to take a very nice jump.

[Big Turk]

41 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Yep, half of our chance is

the divisional element.  If we win this week, I expect our odds to take a very nice jump.

How doesn't Denver have a chance at the division?  They are only one game behind the Chiefs, split the season series with them and I believe have the tiebreaker with them if they finish with the same record. 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

I don't get how we have better odds than Denver, but I'll trust it because it's what I want to hear! 😁

 

But can someone explain WHY our odds are higher? Denver's remaining schedule is:

 

1. Lions (Away)

2. Patriots (Home)

3. Chargers (Home)

4. Raiders (Away) 

Opponent Record 22-30

 

Versus Buffalo's:

 

1. Cowboys (Home)

2. Chargers (Away)

3. Patriots (Home)
4. Dolphins (Away)

Opponent Record: 27-25

 

We both have a 4-5 Conference Record, but they've got the head-to-head tie breaker...

 

ESPN even has us with a 24% chance to win our division and Denver only a 7% chance... despite them only being 1 game behind the 8-5 Chiefs in the West. We're sitting 2 games behind the Dolphins, so are our chances higher because we could sweep the Dolphins & the Broncos only split with KC? What am I missing?!?! 

The fpi model doesn’t think Denver is as good as us so those easy opponents they have are more likely to be losses than our harder opponents 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

I don't get how we have better odds than Denver, but I'll trust it because it's what I want to hear! 😁

 

But can someone explain WHY our odds are higher?

 

I was wondering the same earlier today and after thinking about it I think I have stumbled upon the answer. Point differential. 

 

The Bills are one of five teams with a 7-6, of which only two will make the playoffs. Currently, due to tiebreakers, the Bills are in the worst shape of those 7-6 teams and that is why they are currently in the 11th seed. 

 

However, stop and think for a second what a 7-6 record means. It essentially means you are about as equally likely to lose a game as you are to win a game. We really can't look at any of those 7-6 teams and say, oh they will beat that team for sure. They all have major flaws and could lose to any team. Well, except the Bills. Outside of the Cowboys, the Bills realistically should beat all the teams left on their schedule. Yes, that even includes the Dolphins IMO, who have been ravaged by injuries these last two weeks. 

 

Point differential of the 7-6 teams:

 

Bills +104 (3rd highest in the conference and 5th best overall in the league)

Texans +8

Bengals -7 (-45 through first 4 games +38 since week 5 onward including beating the 7 seed Colts by 20 points last week)

Colts  -16

Broncos -22 (-71 through first six games but +49 since week seven onward) This is why the Broncos have the second best odds to make the playoffs

Steelers -40

 

Even the 8-5 Browns who currently hold the first wild card spot only have a +17 point differential. That's quite a bit worst than the Chiefs for example who hold a +64 differential with the same 8-5 record. Would anyone really be surprised if they lost to any of the remaining teams on their schedule : Bears, Texans, Jets and Bengals

 

If we go by the thought process that a 7-6 team is just as likely to lose a game as they are to win a game, we can then start with the assumption that all of the 7-6 teams should finish out the year 2-2 regardless of who is on their schedule. Due to point differential, the Bills appear to be the obvious anomaly. The Bills look more likely to finish 4-0 or 3-1. 

 

If I am predicting the wild card teams I am going with the Bills, Broncos and Bengals. Those are the three teams that to me, look more likely to beat the majority (go 3-1) teams remaining on their schedule. The Colts, Steelers, Texans and Browns all feel just as likely to lose to a team on their schedule as they are to win. 

 

The obvious conundrum here is that the Bills lose head-to-head tiebreakers to the Broncos and Bengals and the Browns have a one game advantage currently. Assuming the Bills finish 10-7, we would need the Browns to finish 1-3, not just 2-2. 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I was wondering the same earlier today and after thinking about it I think I have stumbled upon the answer. Point differential. 

 

The Bills are one of five teams with a 7-6, of which only two will make the playoffs. Currently, due to tiebreakers, the Bills are in the worst shape of those 7-6 teams and that is why they are currently in the 11th seed. 

 

However, stop and think for a second what a 7-6 record means. It essentially means you are about as equally likely to lose a game as you are to win a game. We really can't look at any of those 7-6 teams and say, oh they will beat that team for sure. They all have major flaws and could lose to any team. Well, except the Bills. Outside of the Cowboys, the Bills realistically should beat all the teams left on their schedule. Yes, that even includes the Dolphins IMO, who have been ravaged by injuries these last two weeks. 

 

Point differential of the 7-6 teams:

 

Bills +104 (3rd highest in the conference and 5th best overall in the league)

Texans +8

Bengals -7 (-45 through first 4 games +38 since week 5 onward including beating the 7 seed Colts by 20 points last week)

Colts  -16

Broncos -22 (-71 through first six games but +49 since week seven onward) This is why the Broncos have the second best odds to make the playoffs

Steelers -40

 

Even the 8-5 Browns who currently hold the first wild card spot only have a +17 point differential. That's quite a bit worst than the Chiefs for example who hold a +64 differential with the same 8-5 record. Would anyone really be surprised if they lost to any of the remaining teams on their schedule : Bears, Texans, Jets and Bengals

 

If we go by the thought process that a 7-6 team is just as likely to lose a game as they are to win a game, we can then start with the assumption that all of the 7-6 teams should finish out the year 2-2 regardless of who is on their schedule. Due to point differential, the Bills appear to be the obvious anomaly. The Bills look more likely to finish 4-0 or 3-1. 

 

If I am predicting the wild card teams I am going with the Bills, Broncos and Bengals. Those are the three teams that to me, look more likely to beat the majority (go 3-1) teams remaining on their schedule. The Colts, Steelers, Texans and Browns all feel just as likely to lose to a team on their schedule as they are to win. 

 

The obvious conundrum here is that the Bills lose head-to-head tiebreakers to the Broncos and Bengals and the Browns have a one game advantage currently. Assuming the Bills finish 10-7, we would need the Browns to finish 1-3, not just 2-2. 

 

Even without being ravaged by injuries, the Dolphins regularly and routinely have folded like a cheap tent over the past 20 years+ when December has come along.  Last year they snuck into the playoffs by turning an 8-3 stat into a 9-8 finish.  The year they came to Buffalo in the final week of the season in a "win and in" scenario with the Bills having already clinched the division and being locked into their seed and left with a 56-26 beatdown, which included Matt Barkley and the backups playing all 2nd half and showing no letup.  This year, they haven't beaten a team with a winning record and start December by turning a game they had a 99.6% chance to win into an L.  They also have games against the Ravens, Cowboys and Bills, which they should go 0-3 in. If the Bills beat the Cowboys, they likely win the division outright in Week 18.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Big Turk

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Even without being ravaged by injuries, the Dolphins regularly and routinely have folded like a cheap tent over the past 20 years+ when December has come along.  Last year they snuck into the playoffs by turning an 8-3 stat into a 9-8 finish.  This year, they haven't beaten a team with a winning record and start December by turning a game they had a 99.6% chance to win into an L.  They also have games against the Ravens, Cowboys and Bills, which they should go 0-3 in. If the Bills beat the Cowboys, they likely win the division outright in Week 18.

 

Yep. And not to mention, the only game we have lost to the Dolphins in recent memory was one in which we lost half our players to heat exhaustion. Anda still we put up 500 yards of total offense and out gained them by nearly 300 yards on the day. 

[chongli]

42 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Yep. And not to mention, the only game we have lost to the Dolphins in recent memory was one in which we lost half our players to heat exhaustion. 

 

Well, there was this too ☹️ :

 

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by chongli

[mannc]

I don’t think the Dolphins have a better chance than we do to win the division. They could easily lose all their remaining games, and we’re effectively only one game behind them. And their starters are dropping like flies.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

Well, there was this too ☹️ :

 

 

 

 

 

Yes. I no longer classify that one as recent though. Are Allen and Dawkins our only remaining offensive players from that game?

[chongli]

20 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Yes. I no longer classify that one as recent though. Are Allen and Dawkins our only remaining offensive players from that game?

 

Had to go back and look. Tons of roster turnover. Allen and Dawkins are the only offensive ones, but for the rest:

 

Tre'Davious White

Reid Ferguson

Jordan Poyer

Micah Hyde

Taron Johnson

Matt Milano

Jordan Phillips

Shaq Lawson

Siran Neal

Dean Marlowe

Edited December 15, 2023 by chongli

[CSBill]

The best predictor of play-off probability for the Buffalo Bills = Win Your Games!

[Doc Brown]

7 hours ago, Big Turk said:

How doesn't Denver have a chance at the division?  They are only one game behind the Chiefs, split the season series with them and I believe have the tiebreaker with them if they finish with the same record. 

 

Mahomes can pry beat the four remaining teams left handed.

[strive_for_five_guy]

7 hours ago, Big Turk said:

How doesn't Denver have a chance at the division?  They are only one game behind the Chiefs, split the season series with them and I believe have the tiebreaker with them if they finish with the same record. 

 

Chiefs are currently 3-1 in their division, Broncos 2-2.  If they end up tied, it’s very unlikely the Chiefs will have lost to both Raiders and Chargers.

[Fan in Chicago]

9 hours ago, BigDingus said:

I don't get how we have better odds than Denver, but I'll trust it because it's what I want to hear! 😁 Broncos only split with KC? What am I missing?!?! 

Because we have Josh Allen and Broncos dont

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Mahomes can pry beat the four remaining teams left handed.

 

Doesn't really matter who they have left on their schedule. This year's version of the Chiefs is far more likely to finish the season 3-1 then they are 4-0.