The DB Dilemma

[BrooklynBills]

40 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

What makes you say that about Poyer?

 

Hyde is a free agent after this season.  The Bills will have dead money on the books for him, which will remain dead money (I think) even if they re-sign him.  Hyde has 2 young kids, the neck surgery clearly haven't prevented him from having neck and back issues, and you'd think he might decide it's time to hang up his cleats while he can still play catch with his kids and teach them to ride bikes.

 

Poyer is under contract to the Bills in 2024.  He's got ~$5M in new money coming into his bank account next season.  I don't think he willingly gives that up.

 

It was just a feeling that I got when he signed from his presser and now combined with how he's looked a bit slower this year.

[BuffaloBillyG]

11 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Let's make signs and recruit him Takeo Spikes style during our NE game. I like him.  

I've always thought he would be such a perfect fit in this defense. I'll buy the markers now.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

You didn't mention anything about Douglas. I would be shocked if the Bills did not extend him. 

Realized after I posted 😅

[MrEpsYtown]

I would love to get our hands on Xavier McKinney. I assume he will be very expensive. there are a lot of interesting DBs in the draft as well, but it would be better to add to the offense. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

4 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I'm going to make a very bold prediction. If (and it is a big if) he hits FA, one of those safety spots next season will be filled by Kyle Duggar. I almost am positive if he's not re-signed by NE he would be a priority FA for Beane, who it's reported really liked him coming out of the draft. 

I would love this. If cutting Poyer and White meant signing Kyle Freaking Dugger then do it. 
 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

46 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I've always thought he would be such a perfect fit in this defense. I'll buy the markers now.

 

Agreed. And they seem to like to circle back to those guys they liked pre-draft who maybe slipped through their fingers. 

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Poyer is a $7.5M hit if he stays, or a $2M hit if cut, and we are strapped for cash. He's as good as gone. And should be. He's a shell back there this year, it will only be worse next year.

 

 

First, a couple points of clarification:

- The Bills absolutely are not CASH strapped. They have some CAP pain coming in the future, but that is a different issue. 

- As currently constructed, yes, cap hits for Poyer would be $2M to cut or $7.5M to keep, but the only part of those numbers that is meaningful to a discussion of whether or not to keep him on the team is the $5.5M i. new money.  

 

To the first point, the 2024 cap will not be an issue, in part because the Bills are not cash strapped. 2025 is likely to see some cap related pain though. That could even be pushed to 2026 or split between the seasons if the Bills are so inclined. It is coming, just not this offseason. 

 

To the second point, if the Bills keep Poyer they could push out some of his cap hit with a restructure and void year(s). Still, we’d be adding a total of $5.5M to our cap responsibilities unless he took a pay cut.

 

The other option is to replace him, which quite obviously means paying a FA and/or drafting a player. I don’t see the Bills drafting a safety early this offseason so I’ll cross that off. They could pay a younger safety of near equal talent, but they aren’t saving any money/cap space doing that. Still, I wouldn’t have any issue with this if the team goes this route. The last option is to bring back Poyer (or other short term vet) and draft a mid round (or later) S that can be groomed. I think they’ve tried this, but it hasn’t worked out. It’s a viable option.

 

tl/dr: if the Bills don’t keep Poyer, it’ll be because of his play not his contract. 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by BarleyNY
apparently I forgot what year we are in.

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The other option is to replace him, which quite obviously means paying a FA and/or drafting a player. I don’t see the Bills drafting a safety early this offseason so I’ll cross that off. They could pay a younger safety of near equal talent, but they aren’t saving any money/cap space doing that. Still, I wouldn’t have any issue with this if the team goes this route. The last option is to bring back Poyer (or other short term vet) and draft a mid round (or later) S that can be groomed. I think they’ve tried this, but it hasn’t worked out. It’s a viable option. 

 

I can see the Bills drafting a safety early this off season and TBD losing its collective marbles in a gimondulous meltdown if it happens.

 

Paying a younger guy they like might be a good strategy.  But I think they may want to keep Poyer and try to groom a couple lower picks or a mid tier FA.

I think they took a swing at the mid-tier FA thing with Rapp, and I would have to call the results "mixed". 

 

They took a shot at a lower pick with Hamlin, but he took a year before they were letting him see the field.  Am I missing someone else?

 

As for Hamlin, I felt he showed improvement through the season and occasional flashes before the Bengals game.  It's not impossible that he might yet come back to form.  We talk about the time to recover from something that has surgery and a pretty known timeline, like an ACL or Achilles tear, and how the player can come back in a year but it's often the 2nd season  before they're truly themselves.  But what Hamlin went through was a huge insult (in the medical and biochemical usage) to almost every organ system in his body.  No one really knows what the timeline to truly come back from that to peak athleticism is, because no one has done it.  Very few have had the opportunity to do it!

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I can see the Bills drafting a safety early this off season and TBD losing its collective marbles in a gimondulous meltdown if it happens.

 

Paying a younger guy they like might be a good strategy.  But I think they may want to keep Poyer and try to groom a couple lower picks or a mid tier FA.

I think they took a swing at the mid-tier FA thing with Rapp, and I would have to call the results "mixed". 

 

They took a shot at a lower pick with Hamlin, but he took a year before they were letting him see the field.  Am I missing someone else?

 

As for Hamlin, I felt he showed improvement through the season and occasional flashes before the Bengals game.  It's not impossible that he might yet come back to form.  We talk about the time to recover from something that has surgery and a pretty known timeline, like an ACL or Achilles tear, and how the player can come back in a year but it's often the 2nd season  before they're truly themselves.  But what Hamlin went through was a huge insult (in the medical and biochemical usage) to almost every organ system in his body.  No one really knows what the timeline to truly come back from that to peak athleticism is, because no one has done it.  Very few have had the opportunity to do it!

 

Its tough with needs at WR and Pass rusher.  Maybe someone slips to the 3rd that you like though, its not usually a position teams prioritize in the first round.  

[balln]

12 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Its tough with needs at WR and Pass rusher.  Maybe someone slips to the 3rd that you like though, its not usually a position teams prioritize in the first round.  

They will have to rebuild the entire DL. 
it’s just Oliver and Von next year folks. That’s IT

 

sorry Mcbeane. You can rework and patch holes in the secondary 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, balln said:

They will have to rebuild the entire DL. 
it’s just Oliver and Von next year folks. That’s IT

 

sorry Mcbeane. You can rework and patch holes in the secondary 

 

And rousseau.  But replacements will be needed for players like AJE, Phillips, Lawson, DQ, Joseph, and Settle.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 12/13/2023 at 10:29 AM, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Our DB room is way too fascinating for me to save this thread for the summer time. Do we have a position group with as many offseason storylines as our Defensive backs?

 

Micah Hyde will be 33 in a few weeks and is a free agent this summer. Father Time has started to catch up to him, and the team simply cannot have this starting safety duo back again next year. I have so much love and respect for Hyde (and Poyer), but I think their time is done barring a late season P-Squad signing for depth. 
 

Jordan Poyer is in the same boat. He is under contract for 2024, but a release saves the team 5m during an offseason where they are pretty far in the hole. He, like Hyde, is relying off instinct and intelligence right now over athletic ability. Neither is done athletically, but they’ve lost some of their juice. The team could hang on to Poyer, he’s a defensive Swiss Army knife and I like him in this weird “other nickel” roll he’s been doing with Taron Johnson and Nard-dog.  I wouldn’t hate seeing him as the primary backup for both FS and SS. Behind who, you say? 
 

Christian Benford, right now as a second year former 6th round pick, is a solid CB. That is a huge win. He isn’t spectacular, he is dependable though. There are plenty of games this year where he only has 0-3 targets. There is a very good shot he stays the teams #2 CB, but imagine for a moment what he looks like at SS? 6’1’’ 205, sound tackler (hasn’t missed a single tackle in 2023) and sound in zone coverage. I don’t know if the Bills create a hole to fill a hole, but CB lining up at CB may depend on someone else.

 

Kaiir Elam wasn’t traded, I think that’s worth mentioning. I don’t think the Bills will give up on the kid without trying everything first. I believe he competes for the #2 CB role again, but given the log jam at CB and the depletion at Safety, I think there is a shot he, at minimum, gets a mention at FS. Elite athlete and has ball skills, FS could be a good home for him if Benford stays at CB2. He has a narrative for being a poor tackler, but the numbers don’t support it. Outside his first month in the NFL, his missed tackle rate is actually pretty low. I’ll admit, my X’s and O’s knowledge is limited and there is wayyyy more that goes into a CB-FS transition than ball skills and athleticism, but it’s an interesting conversation nonetheless. 
 

Taron Johnson is basically a mini-LB and Dane Jackson is fine as a primary perimeter CB backup. If it’s not broke don’t fix it. If Elam and Benford both stay at CB, maybe the team experiment with Jackson at Safety but I don’t think he is consistent enough week in and week out to hold down a new position full time. I will say, he’s got the intensity for it. 
 

I’m not sure that they view Damar Hamlin as an every down starter at SS, seeing he’s been inactive every game. 
 

Tre White is the ultimate wildcard. He’s still in his prime age wise, he will be 29 in January. His injuries are well noted, I have no idea when we may see him return. He was looking pretty good before he got hurt, there is no question a healthy Tre White is our CB1. Releasing Tre saves 6m, but I’d be willing to bet he would re-work his deal to stay on the team. There are some players that you don’t bet against when it comes to overcoming injuries, Take Away Tre is one of them. Could Tre move to Safety? There is a difference between being a poor tackler and being an unwilling one. 
 

What are your thoughts? Do we bring back Hyde/Poyer? Do we keep the log jam at CB? Where would Christian Benford be utilized best? Will Tre White come back from this injury or is 6 million in cap savings too much to ignore? What would you try with Elam? 
 

🦬

Hyde, poyer and white all need to go this offseason.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

First, a couple points of clarification:

- The Bills absolutely are not CASH strapped. They have some CAP pain coming in the future, but that is a different issue. 

- As currently constructed, yes, cap hits for Poyer would be $2M to cut or $7.5M to keep, but the only part of those numbers that is meaningful to a discussion of whether or not to keep him on the team is the $5.5M i. new money.  

 

To the first point, the 2023 cap will not be an issue, in part because the Bills are not cash strapped. 2024 is likely to see some cap related pain though. That could even be pushed to 2025 or split between the seasons if the Bills are so inclined. It is coming, just not this offseason. 

 

To the second point, if the Bills keep Poyer they could push out some of his cap hit with a restructure and void year(s). Still, we’d be adding a total of $5.5M to our cap responsibilities unless he took a pay cut.

 

The other option is to replace him, which quite obviously means paying a FA and/or drafting a player. I don’t see the Bills drafting a safety early this offseason so I’ll cross that off. They could pay a younger safety of near equal talent, but they aren’t saving any money/cap space doing that. Still, I wouldn’t have any issue with this if the team goes this route. The last option is to bring back Poyer (or other short term vet) and draft a mid round (or later) S that can be groomed. I think they’ve tried this, but it hasn’t worked out. It’s a viable option.

 

tl/dr: if the Bills don’t keep Poyer, it’ll be because of his play not his contract. 

 

Next season is 2024 when all this pain you are referring to starts, which is exactly what I mean by cash strapped.

 

We are currently significantly over the cap, even factoring in the cap increase. Beane has plenty of levers to pull to get under, but it will be a lot of work.

 

I even made a thread about it that was doing pretty well until Tyler Dunne took over the board

 

 

[BarleyNY]

34 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Next season is 2024 when all this pain you are referring to starts, which is exactly what I mean by cash strapped.

 

We are currently significantly over the cap, even factoring in the cap increase. Beane has plenty of levers to pull to get under, but it will be a lot of work.

 

I even made a thread about it that was doing pretty well until Tyler Dunne took over the board

 

 

 

Apologies for the confusion on my part. I ran everything a year off. The Bills will be fine cap-wise in 2024. Restructures and moving on from overpaid/underperforming players will give the Bills enough room to operate in 2024. The real pain will be in 2025 and/or 2026. I’ve been over it a bunch of times in other threads. I’ll link one. see below) Others, including Tompsett, have done solid work too. 

 

Cap management is a lot of work every year for teams that are contenders. Just because 2024 will require that doesn’t mean it’ll be particularly painful. We may part with players like Tre White, which could be characterized as painful. But that’s play related, not cap related. 

 

When talking about salary caps and contracts cash and cap are very different. Cash is literally money paid to a player. Cap is the allocation of those dollars. Cash strapped teams are ones where ownership does not have the liquidity to offer contracts (or restructures) with high signing bonuses and/or guarantees. That obviously is not the case with the Bills. 

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/251384-the-bleak-cap-situation-going-forward/page/5/

 

On 11/30/2023 at 6:55 PM, BarleyNY said:

 

While the Bills aren’t flush with cap space to burn they aren’t in that bad of shape either. 2024 is easily put into order. I’d start with the following:

 

Restructure:

- Allen

- Diggs

- Oliver

 

Release:

- White (w/post 6/1 designation)

- Hardy

- Poyer

 

Per overthecap that would put the Bills $31.17M under the cap. That doesn’t include any rollover or additional moves. 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by BarleyNY

[Matt_In_NH]

With Tre I think they will waive him if they can    Might depend on his injury status. 
 

I get the feeling Hyde is done.   He may play some mor this year but the stinger thing seems chronic.  I would move on for Poyer too.   Douglass and benford are good boundary starting corners and Johnson is a stud I. The slot.  They have decent backup corners still too.  They will need some new blood at safety.  That is where the work is.  

[DrDawkinstein]

6 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Apologies for the confusion on my part. I ran everything a year off. The Bills will be fine cap-wise in 2024. Restructures and moving on from overpaid/underperforming players will give the Bills enough room to operate in 2024. The real pain will be in 2025 and/or 2026. I’ve been over it a bunch of times in other threads. I’ll link one. see below) Others, including Tompsett, have done solid work too. 

 

Cap management is a lot of work every year for teams that are contenders. Just because 2024 will require that doesn’t mean it’ll be particularly painful. We may part with players like Tre White, which could be characterized as painful. But that’s play related, not cap related. 

 

When talking about salary caps and contracts cash and cap are very different. Cash is literally money paid to a player. Cap is the allocation of those dollars. Cash strapped teams are ones where ownership does not have the liquidity to offer contracts (or restructures) with high signing bonuses and/or guarantees. That obviously is not the case with the Bills. 

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/251384-the-bleak-cap-situation-going-forward/page/5/

 

 

Haha, all good, man. What even is time anymore after we lost those couple of years?

[Big Turk]

Gotta start drafting DBs.  Luckily the Bills seemingly are able to get quality DBs regularly late in the draft and as UDFA's.

 

Benford was a 6th round pick, Jackson is a 7th round pick, Wallace and Lewis were UDFA's.

 

Also lucky the Bills scheme might be the most DB friendly in the entire NFL where it minimizes the weaknesses of any players who play in it.

7 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Apologies for the confusion on my part. I ran everything a year off. The Bills will be fine cap-wise in 2024. Restructures and moving on from overpaid/underperforming players will give the Bills enough room to operate in 2024. The real pain will be in 2025 and/or 2026. I’ve been over it a bunch of times in other threads. I’ll link one. see below) Others, including Tompsett, have done solid work too. 

 

Cap management is a lot of work every year for teams that are contenders. Just because 2024 will require that doesn’t mean it’ll be particularly painful. We may part with players like Tre White, which could be characterized as painful. But that’s play related, not cap related. 

 

When talking about salary caps and contracts cash and cap are very different. Cash is literally money paid to a player. Cap is the allocation of those dollars. Cash strapped teams are ones where ownership does not have the liquidity to offer contracts (or restructures) with high signing bonuses and/or guarantees. That obviously is not the case with the Bills. 

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/251384-the-bleak-cap-situation-going-forward/page/5/

 

I think people are greatly underestimating how much the cap will rise over the next 3-4 years.  Should be over $300 million by 2027 at the latest by virtue of all the new TV contracts kicking in. Bills have already likely taken this into account and will be fine.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Big Turk

[BarleyNY]

6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Haha, all good, man. What even is time anymore after we lost those couple of years?

Ah, I remember the Before Times.