The DB Dilemma

[Saxum]

34 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Douglas can plug a hole for a couple years… corner or safety imo

 

 

Douglas seems very Hyde-like.

6 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I could see them drafting a Safety on Day 2, another on Day 3 and keeping Poyer for one more year. 

 

A little worried Mrs. Poyer will make another media stink if Bills do not extend him.

I'd like one quiet year.

[Ga boy]

1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

We have Douglas for one year because after '24  I think he is going to get pretty big money.

 

If Tre is gone and we have room maybe we pay.

 

I like him a lot.

 

 

 

 

Extend Douglas.

[Saxum]

8 minutes ago, somnus00 said:

I see Hyde retiring. These neck injuries keep coming up this season. After the scare last year, I don't see why he would risk coming back. He's made his money. The next contact won't be worth the risk. I'm worried about him, I can't imagine how his family feels every time he makes a tackle. 

 

I can see him staying on practice squad because he loves football with him having "red shirt" in camp.

Bills can break glass in emergencies and he gets another year on his pension plan.

Maybe he looks at coaching - he would be a solid one.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Limeaid
Duplicate post

[Capco]

27 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

You need multiple corners. And you need guys that fit/know the system and communications. In a perfect scenario my depth chart would look something like this:

 

CB1: Douglas

CB2: White (on a pay cut with Jackson stepping in if not ready)

CB3: Jackson/Elam

CB4: Rookie

CB5: FA (lower level not major signing)

 

Safety - Benford

Safety - FA

Safety - Rookie

 

Give a nice mix of youth and experience at all levels with enough youth to be the long term answer moving forward.

 

There are many ways to go about it and truthfully I don't see any opinions as wrong at this point because there is a LOT that we just don't know. Will Tre heal? Would he take a pay cut to stay? Who will be available in FA? Who is sitting there when we pick? Will Elam suddenly figure things out?

 

The answers to those questions will dictate what needs to be done in the long run IMO.

I like this lineup, but I’d like to keep Poyer another year for the veteran presence and depth.

[juno999]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

I think we have to break this into three position groups:

 

Safety:

Micah Hyde - Free agent, going on 34, nagging injuries and lost a step. Gone.

Jordan Poyer - Cutting saves $5.5M. $2M dead cap. Gone.

Rapp - Free agent - Gone.

Hamlin - Last year of cheap contract. Maaaaaybe practice squad, otherwise gone.

Need 2 new starters and maybe 2 backups.

 

Slot Corner:

1) Taron Johnson - last year of extension, due $12M. I bet we extend him.

Need depth, maybe in late rounds?

 

Outside Corner:

1) Christian Benford - Solid 1/2 and under contract 2 more years. Injury concerns.

2) Rasul Douglas - Rock solid 2 and under contract for next year. No reason to extend yet.

3) Kaiir Elam - This is the upside guy you groom behind 1 and 2.  No reason to cut or trade.

4) Dane Jackson - Meh. Expired contract, would welcome him back on vet min for depth.

5) Tre White - cut or ideally injury settlement. Love you Tre.

Need injury insurance for Benford and ideally a stronger #1 corner. Is Elam that guy?

 

Thus, safety is the big need. Corner depth and hopefully upside can be found in late rounds.

 

To those suggesting we cut Kaiir Elam... why?

 

He has raw talent and is on a relatively cheap contract. It's an $8M dead cap hit to cut him and $3.7M to keep him on the roster next year. Why the hell would you pay double to not have him?

I believe Beane may sign Douglas to an extension this offseason to lower his cap hit in 2024.  He's  currently scheduled to make $9M next year.

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

The more I think about the Douglas trade the more I like it.

 

Saves us from a gigantic hole at CB next year and was a good Tre replacement mid season.

 

 

Chan can you imagine?  Honestly can you imagine if we did not have him?

 

Boy.

 

 

[corta765]

It goes like this for me:

 

Expect to be here next year:

Benford - CB2 perfect as that role

Douglas - I can see them adding another or year or two to space out the contract past 24' and lower his cap number

Johnson - Most underrated NCB in the league and they get another year of him

 

50/50:

Elam - I can see them trading him or I can see them bringing him back and seeing healthy if he can be more of what they thought

Jackson - He is free agent and done enough to probably earn a larger spot somewhere else for more money if it comes. Otherwise he is fine as a CB4/NCB mix

Poyer- If he is really to renegotiate I think they keep him for a year so the safety room isn't completely barren

 

Gone:

Hamlin - Hasn't shown enough and with a quieter off season it is easier to let him go

Hyde - Makes me sad to type as he was such a great signing and important piece that reset the foundation of the Bills, but the injuries are real and his play has dropped. Honestly hope he retires so he can be healthy

Tre White - Tre has three major things working against him 1. injuries 2. cap hit 3. log jam of CBs now in front of him. Tre at his best is ahead of any CB Buffalo has but with two major knee injuries as he approaches 30 he just isn't that guy anymore. The cap hit and savings is huge if he is gone and the risk to keep him doesn't justify the cost. Kills me to say as he was such a great important player, but someone will pay for what he was hoping he can regain form and I don't see him signing a cheap flyer to stay.

Rapp - Was worth a one year flyer to see if he could be a piece in the future. He isn't on to the next. 

With all of that said my expectation is this next year:

 

CB: Douglas, Benford, Johnson, Elam, draft pick rnd 4-6, vet free agent

SAF: Poyer, free agent modest money (Jalen Mills/Darnell Savage/Mike Edwards type), draft pick rnd 2-4, draft pick rnd 5-7, vet minimum FA (John Johnson type)

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

The more I think about the Douglas trade the more I like it.

 

Saves us from a gigantic hole at CB next year and was a good Tre replacement mid season.

 

The trade compensation was basically the comp pick and we got back a 5th.  Not terrible.  

[bigK14094]

1 hour ago, Ga boy said:

Extend Douglas.

Tre will need (another) recovery season like last year.  Bills can't afford that....and he is now "injury prone"  Can't afford to have that kind of guy take a roster spot.  Doesn't matter what he once was.

McD likes old guys, so maybe not so many cuts as this board speculates.  think of the guys from Carolina they  brought in that could barely function.  I can't remember the names anymore.

[Airseven]

Counting on the trio of White, Poyer, and Hyde to be healthy/effective going into the season was absurd. All three are broken and should be gone next season.

 

Elam has to be on the trade block in the spring - there's no recovering from this situation. I expect Beane to overpay Jackson in free agency for familiarity's sake. That leaves Douglas, Benford, Johnson, Jackson, and presumably a mid-round pick as the corps. 

 

While I was excited about the Rapp signing, I don't think he's earned another contract - disappointing. Safety has to be in the cards for draft day 2.

 

Neal, Hamlin, and Lewis (UFA) are irrelevant. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I'd extend Douglas for a couple years while you can do it for ,less money than waiting a year until he's a FA

 

Let Hyde go. may bring back Poyer but at less money, mainly don't want to have two new safeties in system same year and draft his replacement for 2025

 

I'd keep Elam for reasons mentioned unless they can get decent return on trade which is doubtful.

 

Probably let White go also unless he agrees to big pay cut.

 

Extend Johnson.

[BigAl2526]

Others have stated Buffalo will be looking for safety help in the off season.  I agree.  I don't think Buffalo has given up on Elam yet, but the clock is ticking.  I expect him to get a chance to be on the field before the end of the season and I think he'll be here for training camp.  Anything after that depends on him.  Benford in 2024 is a given, I think.  Dane Jackson probably sticks.  If Rasul Douglas is on a two year deal, he is too.  I'm not ruling out Tre white next season.  I think the Bills will wait until training camp to figure it out.  Other CBs are contract issues I will leave to the team to figure out.

[Rigotz]

2 hours ago, juno999 said:

I believe Beane may sign Douglas to an extension this offseason to lower his cap hit in 2024.  He's  currently scheduled to make $9M next year.

 

$9M is pretty reasonable for a solid #2 CB. I would hope they can get an extension done at less than that amount, but I don't think it's likely.

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

You trade him post 6/1 and save a couple million. Conditional 7th type deal.

 

I'll never understand this ... trading him after 6/1 does not save you a couple million.

 

Keep the 1st round Corner you drafted, when you need Corner depth (at worst) and develop him ...

 

Or flip him for a 7th and pay more to not have him? This is insane.

[schoolhouserock]

When McD was the DC in Carolina, they had a complete refresh of the DB’s that did not go so well. It coincided with Norman’s exit, I believe.

 

I seem to recall McD being asked about it early on during his Bills’ tenure. He made a remark that he felt the lack of continuity of leadership in the position group hurt more than he had anticipated. 
 

With that in mind, I could see the Bills hanging onto one of Hyde or Poyer for at least one additional season. I have a hard time seeing how both will be back, however. That pairing has, unfortunately, run its course.

[corta765]

Just now, schoolhouserock said:

When McD was the DC in Carolina, they had a complete refresh of the DB’s that did not go so well. It coincided with Norman’s exit, I believe.

 

I seem to recall McD being asked about it early on during his Bills’ tenure. He made a remark that he felt the lack of continuity of leadership in the position group hurt more than he had anticipated. 
 

With that in mind, I could see the Bills hanging onto one of Hyde or Poyer for at least one additional season. I have a hard time seeing how both will be back, however. That pairing has, unfortunately, run its course.

It is why I think Poyer ends up staying on a redone contract that has incentives he can hit. The CBs are fine with Douglas Benford Johnson, but safety wise even if they are refreshing I see him wanting one vet and Poyer has been decent enough to stay.

[BarleyNY]

CB - Douglas, prefer to extend

CB - Benford

N - Johnson, prefer to extend

FS - FA (or draft pick)

SS - Poyer

 

White - released w/post 6/1 designation

Hamlin - depth

Neal - depth or cut

Elam - developmental depth or trade

Hyde, Rapp - allow to leave in FA

Jackson, Lewis - allow to leave as FA unless kept as inexpensive depth 

Edited December 13, 2023 by BarleyNY

[billsfan89]

At corner I think they go with Benford, Douglas and Johnson as the starters not much controversy there. I do think they keep Elam as there is a reason they drafted him in round 1. Then I think they either cut Tre or rework his deal massively if he is willing to try to take a cut in order to try to play one more season. If they can keep Dane at a sensible price I also think they keep him for depth.

 

The questions at corner are more so what will they do after the starters? Who do they keep or bring in for depth?

 

Safety is a big can of worms. Hyde is a free agent and older, Poyer is on a small deal and could be cut or kept? Rapp is a free agent and Hamlin has one year left on his rookie deal.

 

I expect Rapp, Poyer and Hamlin to be back and a draft pick and another veteran depth player brought in.

[BuffaloBillyG]

17 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

CB - Douglas, prefer to extend

CB - Benford

N - Johnson, prefer to extend

FS - FA (or draft pick)

SS - Poyer

 

White - released w/post 6/1 designation

Hamlin - depth

Neal - depth or cut

Elam - developmental depth or trade

Hyde, Rapp - allow to leave in FA

Jackson, Lewis - allow to leave as FA unless kept as inexpensive depth 

I'm going to make a very bold prediction. If (and it is a big if) he hits FA, one of those safety spots next season will be filled by Kyle Duggar. I almost am positive if he's not re-signed by NE he would be a priority FA for Beane, who it's reported really liked him coming out of the draft. 

[BarleyNY]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I'm going to make a very bold prediction. If (and it is a big if) he hits FA, one of those safety spots next season will be filled by Kyle Duggar. I almost am positive if he's not re-signed by NE he would be a priority FA for Beane, who it's reported really liked him coming out of the draft. 

 

I believe that Dugger and Poyer play the same SS role so that would mean moving on from Poyer. I haven’t watched Dugger’s play so I don’t have an opinion on him, but I would not mind getting younger at S - especially if the money is right. 

[BrooklynBills]

Unfortunately, I also think White is likely a cut. The average return to play for Achilles is 11-12 months but that isn't peak performance. If he returned to form, we would likely see that in the 2025 season (which is his last under contract anyway).  I just think even a paycut doesn't make sense when you could possibly find an FA with a lower first year cap hit than White's potential paycut. And a paycut won't get his salary down that much. Even if he takes a paycut to the vet min of 1.65M (don't think they would touch the bonus money), his cap number would be 9.9M.  His dead cap for a regular cut would be 10.4M.

 

I'm not too worried about the Bills getting under the salary cap to start next offseason so lets just to play with some contract math here.  Lets say the Bills signed a pretty good CB in FA (Like a 14-16M cap hit - Jaylon Johnson please?) and cut Tre White.  That player's potential year 1 cap hit is likely in the 6M range.  So you could have a questionable Tre White at 29 signed for cap hits of 16M in 2024 and 16M in 2025. Or you could have a much better and younger player signed to cap hits of 6M in 2024 (plus White's dead money of 10M = 16M so thats a wash money wise) and likely less than 16M in 2025 and then signed to your team beyond 2025. It really becomes increasingly hard to justify not moving on from White (which sucks and is a tough decision but likely a necessary one). And that doesn't stop you from extending Douglas for a year or two.