Mini-Rockpile - Bills Win Again at Arrowhead!

[Shaw66]

I won't take the time to write a full Rockpile Review today, but as I'm doing other things I keep having thoughts about the game that I want to share.

 

My real bottom line from the game is that there are a half dozen or so really good teams in the league, and the Bills are one of them.  (Sorry, Bill Parcels, it's not as simple as you're as good as your record.  The Bills are better than their record.)   There are a half dozen or so teams in the league that present big challenges to any opponent, and the Bills are one of them.   The Bengals, the Eagles, and the Chiefs all thought the Bills were one of their toughest games (and they were), and the Cowboys and the Chargers and everyone else on the Bills schedule feel the same way. 

 

Who are the others on top?   Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, 49ers, and pick a couple others.  

 

My second bottom line is that they may have stumbled their way to the finish line yesterday, but the Bills finished first, on the road, against one of the other really good teams.  We never look at the Bills' bumbling losses from the opponents' perspective.   For example, there had to be a lot Eagles fans saying, "Yeah, it's nice we won, but it only happened because Allen and Davis couldn't figure how to complete an easy touchdown pass."  It's no different from Bills fans saying, "Yeah, it's nice we won, but it only happened because Toney lined up offside."   Well, guess what?  Close games against good teams almost always could have turned out differently but for one little dumb thing or another.   The object is to win, and the Bills did it.  Their last defensive stand may have been a little ugly, but they made the stand.   In particular, the pass rush showed up, sometimes with crazy all-out blitzes where guys either got home or at least pressured Mahomes, and sometimes with the front four making the most of their considerable talent.   Especially Miller.   Yesterday was the first time we saw Miller starting to play like Miller can, not every snap, but late in the game when it counted, he was after Mahomes.   He's something to look forward to in the coming weeks.  

 

How close was the game?   Look at the team stats (Bills first).  First downs: passing - 12-14, rushing - 8-6, penalties -1-1.  Conversions:  Third down 6-15 vs 6-12, fourth down 1-1, 0-1.  Total yards: 327, 346.   It was two heavyweights slugging it out.   

 

As the defenses around the league continue to get better at stopping the offenses, the games get messier, with more mistakes and missed opportunities, and the scores drop.  Romo said yesterday that earlier in the week Allen told him that the team that scored in the 20s would be the winner.   One, good for Allen for being that perceptive of the realities of the game.  Two, it's a measure of how the NFL game has changed - who would have thought a year ago that 20 points was enough to win a Mahomes-Allen battle?   

 

My third bottom line is one that everyone talks about in one way or another:  Josh Allen is phenomenal.   Tony Romo talks about it as "putting on the Superman cape."  If at the end of every season you made a highlight reel of the six or ten greatest plays of the NFL season, Allen would make every highlight reel.  Allen rolling to his left, falling out of bounds and dropping a touch pass into Murray's arms is already on the 2023 highlight reel.

 

I've given up pretending I understand the game, except in the most general terms.   I simply don't understand why practically every team in the league stops the Bills and everyone else on all those short receiver screens and rubs, and the Bills sit back in their zone and let teams take an easy seven yards.   I simply don't understand why, if teams are going to attack the Bills' short passing game like that, why the Bills can't find Diggs or Davis or Shakir or Sherfield or Harty or Cook or Kincaid or Knox (man, what a list!) downfield anywhere.   There are reasons, I'm sure, but I accept the fact that it's complicated.  

 

It's too bad the Bills have six losses.  They never should have let that happen to themselves, but that's where they are.  If they can find a way to beat the Cowboys, there'll be no reason to keep looking in the rearview mirror.   If they can beat the Cowboys, they'll be 8-6 with their future in their hands.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

[HOUSE]

A mini Rockpile is the new stadium

People pee over there... 

[ClemsonBills]

28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 I simply don't understand why, if teams are going to attack the Bills' short passing game like that, why the Bills can't find Diggs or Davis or Shakir or Sherfield or Harty or Cook or Kincaid or Knox (man, what a list!) downfield anywhere.   There are reasons, I'm sure, but I accept the fact that it's complicated.  

I believe it is more successful against us because teams check into it when they see our soft coverage. 

 

I also believe Josh prefers a 7-10 yard out throw over the quick screen when he sees soft coverage.

[Marcus Aurelius]

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I won't take the time to write a full Rockpile Review today, but as I'm doing other things I keep having thoughts about the game that I want to share.

 

My real bottom line from the game is that there are a half dozen or so really good teams in the league, and the Bills are one of them.  (Sorry, Bill Parcels, it's not as simple as you're as good as your record.  The Bills are better than their record.)   There are a half dozen or so teams in the league that present big challenges to any opponent, and the Bills are one of them.   The Bengals, the Eagles, and the Chiefs all thought the Bills were one of their toughest games (and they were), and the Cowboys and the Chargers and everyone else on the Bills schedule feel the same way. 

 

Who are the others on top?   Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, 49ers, and pick a couple others.  

 

My second bottom line is that they may have stumbled their way to the finish line yesterday, but the Bills finished first, on the road, against one of the other really good teams.  We never look at the Bills' bumbling losses from the opponents' perspective.   For example, there had to be a lot Eagles fans saying, "Yeah, it's nice we won, but it only happened because Allen and Davis couldn't figure how to complete an easy touchdown pass."  It's no different from Bills fans saying, "Yeah, it's nice we won, but it only happened because Toney lined up offside."   Well, guess what?  Close games against good teams almost always could have turned out differently but for one little dumb thing or another.   The object is to win, and the Bills did it.  Their last defensive stand may have been a little ugly, but they made the stand.   In particular, the pass rush showed up, sometimes with crazy all-out blitzes where guys either got home or at least pressured Mahomes, and sometimes with the front four making the most of their considerable talent.   Especially Miller.   Yesterday was the first time we saw Miller starting to play like Miller can, not every snap, but late in the game when it counted, he was after Mahomes.   He's something to look forward to in the coming weeks.  

 

How close was the game?   Look at the team stats (Bills first).  First downs: passing - 12-14, rushing - 8-6, penalties -1-1.  Conversions:  Third down 6-15 vs 6-12, fourth down 1-1, 0-1.  Total yards: 327, 346.   It was two heavyweights slugging it out.   

 

As the defenses around the league continue to get better at stopping the offenses, the games get messier, with more mistakes and missed opportunities, and the scores drop.  Romo said yesterday that earlier in the week Allen told him that the team that scored in the 20s would be the winner.   One, good for Allen for being that perceptive of the realities of the game.  Two, it's a measure of how the NFL game has changed - who would have thought a year ago that 20 points was enough to win a Mahomes-Allen battle?   

 

My third bottom line is one that everyone talks about in one way or another:  Josh Allen is phenomenal.   Tony Romo talks about it as "putting on the Superman cape."  If at the end of every season you made a highlight reel of the six or ten greatest plays of the NFL season, Allen would make every highlight reel.  Allen rolling to his left, falling out of bounds and dropping a touch pass into Murray's arms is already on the 2023 highlight reel.

 

I've given up pretending I understand the game, except in the most general terms.   I simply don't understand why practically every team in the league stops the Bills and everyone else on all those short receiver screens and rubs, and the Bills sit back in their zone and let teams take an easy seven yards.   I simply don't understand why, if teams are going to attack the Bills' short passing game like that, why the Bills can't find Diggs or Davis or Shakir or Sherfield or Harty or Cook or Kincaid or Knox (man, what a list!) downfield anywhere.   There are reasons, I'm sure, but I accept the fact that it's complicated.  

 

It's too bad the Bills have six losses.  They never should have let that happen to themselves, but that's where they are.  If they can find a way to beat the Cowboys, there'll be no reason to keep looking in the rearview mirror.   If they can beat the Cowboys, they'll be 8-6 with their future in their hands.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

This ...

 

"I simply don't understand why practically every team in the league stops the Bills and everyone else on all those short receiver screens and rubs, and the Bills sit back in their zone and let teams take an easy seven yards.   I simply don't understand why, if teams are going to attack the Bills' short passing game like that, why the Bills can't find Diggs or Davis or Shakir or Sherfield or Harty or Cook or Kincaid or Knox  ..."

 

Good question 

[Sherlock Holmes]

14 minutes ago, Bogie_Klinkhammer said:

A mini Rockpile is the new stadium

People pee over there... 

Maybe that's where you dropped your wallet

[Shaw66]

27 minutes ago, ClemsonBills said:

I believe it is more successful against us because teams check into it when they see our soft coverage. 

 

I also believe Josh prefers a 7-10 yard out throw over the quick screen when he sees soft coverage.

Well, okay.   But as I've said, I've stopped trying to figure it out, and you give me the perfect opportunity to show why:

 

If you're correct that they check into those passes when they see the soft coverage, then McDermott and his defensive staff have seen that too.   So, why don't they adjust?   Is McDermott really content just letting them have that pass whenever they want it?  

 

And if you're correct that Josh likes the out pattern over the quick screen against soft coverage, McDermott and his offensive staff have seen that, too.  Why don't they adjust and get Josh to take the quick screen when it's an easy 5-7 yards?  After all, we've all seen defenses sitting on Josh's shorter sideline throws.  

 

For me, the bottom line has become this:  The coaches have reasons for doing what they do.  I don't know what their reasons are.  Some of their decisions are wrong, just like every other coach, but I don't understand.   I've stopped trying to figure it out.  

[ClemsonBills]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, okay.   But as I've said, I've stopped trying to figure it out, and you give me the perfect opportunity to show why:

 

If you're correct that they check into those passes when they see the soft coverage, then McDermott and his defensive staff have seen that too.   So, why don't they adjust?   Is McDermott really content just letting them have that pass whenever they want it?  

 

 

I think most of it is just what I have observed and there’s a decent chance I could be off.

 

With this defense, pre snap, I see cbs back off way more than coming up to press. This makes sense because we play significantly more zone. I think the defensive side is easier to come up with answers than offensively.

 

Offenses watching tape will see these tendencies and either have design audibles or just know when we are more likely to sit back. 

[Dan Darragh]

14 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

My real bottom line from the game is that there are a half dozen or so really good teams in the league, and the Bills are one of them.  (Sorry, Bill Parcels, it's not as simple as you're as good as your record.  The Bills are better than their record.)   There are a half dozen or so teams in the league that present big challenges to any opponent, and the Bills are one of them.   The Bengals, the Eagles, and the Chiefs all thought the Bills were one of their toughest games (and they were), and the Cowboys and the Chargers and everyone else on the Bills schedule feel the same way. 

Which AFC teams would be favored over the Bills by more than 2 at home in a playoff game?  

[CSBill]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

!'ve given up pretending I understand the game, except in the most general terms.   I simply don't understand why practically every team in the league stops the Bills and everyone else on all those short receiver screens and rubs, and the Bills sit back in their zone and let teams take an easy seven yards.   I simply don't understand why, if teams are going to attack the Bills' short passing game like that, why the Bills can't find Diggs or Davis or Shakir or Sherfield or Harty or Cook or Kincaid or Knox (man, what a list!) downfield anywhere.   There are reasons, I'm sure, but I accept the fact that it's complicated.  

 

This section has a little Proverbial feel to it:

 

Proverbs 30:18-19

“There are three things that are too amazing for me,
    four that I do not understand:
the way of an eagle in the sky,
    the way of a snake on a rock,
the way of a ship on the high seas,
    and the way of a man with a young woman."

 

In the footnotes of your Bible, Soloman added:

 

"Nor why the Buffalo Bills can't execute a bubble or regular screen pass." . . .  It is a mystery of Biblical proportion.

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

Which AFC teams would be favored over the Bills by more than 2 at home in a playoff game?  

Maybe the Ravens.   I've dumped on Lamar for years, but I'm coming around to giving him his due.  That defense is monstrous, and Lamar and Beckham are dangerous.  

 

But, yeah, the Bills are right there.   It's very much like several seasons the Patriots had in their hey day.   First half, they'd look vulnerable, stumble through games, pile up some losses.  But when December came, we all could see that the Patriots were still the Patriots.   Well, the Bills are still some version of what people thought they were.  And it's very possible that we haven't yet seen their best football. 

4 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

This section has a little Proverbial feel to it:

 

Proverbs 30:18-19

“There are three things that are too amazing for me,
    four that I do not understand:
the way of an eagle in the sky,
    the way of a snake on a rock,
the way of a ship on the high seas,
    and the way of a man with a young woman."

 

In the footnotes of your Bible, Soloman added:

 

"Nor why the Buffalo Bills can't execute a bubble or regular screen pass." . . .  It is a mystery of Biblical proportion.

There simply aren't enough emojis to say how great this is!   Every once in a while someone raises the level of conversation around here to new heights (usually it has something to do with Schrodinger's cat!), and you've done it this morning.  Great stuff!

[Figster]

As If NFL officiating doesn't have enough controversial penalty calls and we want to add calling an obvious penalty to the list? Right. Thanks for making a point about the late penalty on the Chiefs. Game deciding penalties occur in most games. Paying attention to the minor details can be the difference between winning and losing. 

 

After what happened to the Dolphins with only 2 minutes and 40 seconds on the clock. It just goes to show regardless of how you try to play it on Defense. Sometimes the other team makes the right play call and play makers make big plays. 

 

Thanks Shaw for another great game review,  

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, Figster said:

As If NFL officiating doesn't have enough controversial penalty calls and we want to add calling an obvious penalty to the list? Right. Thanks for making a point about the late penalty on the Chiefs. Game deciding penalties occur in most games. Paying attention to the minor details can be the difference between winning and losing. 

 

 

You know, your comment about minor details reminds me of my reaction to the penalty as called.  When I saw there was a flag, my first reaction was, "It's on the Bills, touchdown."  When they announced the Offside and we saw the replay, I thought it was an overly technical application of the rules.  Then their expert said it was a point of emphasis this season, and it's been called 9 times, or something like that, and I felt better. 

 

Finally, when I realized it was Toney, I was completely okay with the call.  Why?   Because I'd bet that Toney came out of the huddle all excited that they were going to run his gadget play, lost his concentration, didn't notice that he was offside, and forgot to ask.  In other words, he lost focus in the heat of the moment.  

 

Why are receivers trained to ask the official if they're line up properly?   For exactly this reason - so they won't be offside.   It was all on Toney, and on the coaches for having failed to train him to perform under pressure.  

[SoCal Deek]

31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You know, your comment about minor details reminds me of my reaction to the penalty as called.  When I saw there was a flag, my first reaction was, "It's on the Bills, touchdown."  When they announced the Offside and we saw the replay, I thought it was an overly technical application of the rules.  Then their expert said it was a point of emphasis this season, and it's been called 9 times, or something like that, and I felt better. 

 

Finally, when I realized it was Toney, I was completely okay with the call.  Why?   Because I'd bet that Toney came out of the huddle all excited that they were going to run his gadget play, lost his concentration, didn't notice that he was offside, and forgot to ask.  In other words, he lost focus in the heat of the moment.  

 

Why are receivers trained to ask the official if they're line up properly?   For exactly this reason - so they won't be offside.   It was all on Toney, and on the coaches for having failed to train him to perform under pressure.  

Shaw, they showed on NFL Network how Toney had actually lined up that way on at least three occasions prior that play. I cannot believe the Chiefs coaching staff had the nerve to trash the refs when they themselves had plenty of opportunities to correct him before it cost them the game. 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Shaw, they showed on NFL Network how Toney had actually lined up that way on at least three occasions prior that play. I cannot believe the Chiefs coaching staff had the nerve to trash the refs when they themselves had plenty of opportunities to correct him before it cost them the game. 

You know, I do have more than a little sympathy for the players.   The officiating is so inconsistent.   I'd be pissed, too, if I'd been doing it all game long and then they call it inside two minutes.  

[SoCal Deek]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You know, I do have more than a little sympathy for the players.   The officiating is so inconsistent.   I'd be pissed, too, if I'd been doing it all game long and then they call it inside two minutes.  

Well isn’t that why they have about a million coaches standing around on the sidelines? It’s not their job to tell players that it doesn’t look like the refs are calling stuff. It’s there job to tell their players to line up correctly! 

[Heathcliff]

I would like to add, in my opinion, how dumb that gadget play was inside the 30 yard line needing only a FG to tie.  Cam Lewis was within an inch or two of knocking that ball down. Had he done that the Bills likely would have recovered due to numbers.  What a pompous a$$ and his coach if he allowed it. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

SideNote:

 

Bills actually have a winning record against KC in the regular season. YET, 2-3 record in playoffs. The one rubber game was the AFCchampionship prior to SBI. 😔  Since 1990s, 2-2 in postseason. 

 

One of the few teams they hold this winning record with, the Jets the other team. Seeing that overall Bills have losing record for the organization. 

 

All Matchups, Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs:

 

Buffalo Bills lead series, 29-24-1
27-21-1 regular season, 2-3 postseason

 

 

[CSBill]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

There simply aren't enough emojis to say how great this is!   Every once in a while someone raises the level of conversation around here to new heights (usually it has something to do with Schrodinger's cat!), and you've done it this morning.  Great stuff!

 

That is a high compliment, especially coming from you, good Sir. Thank you! And, Thank You for your contribution to this board. I always enjoy reading your posts. It really is fun to be part of a unique and passionate online community centered around a team we all love. "GO BILLS!"

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Well isn’t that why they have about a million coaches standing around on the sidelines? It’s not their job to tell players that it doesn’t look like the refs are calling stuff. It’s there job to tell their players to line up correctly! 

Yeah, coaches on the sideline, sure, but it's hard to see there.  Maybe guys in the press box.  I think the problem is coaching in the summer and during the week.  It's not enough for coaches to tell the players to do something; their job is to train them so they actually do it.  

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, coaches on the sideline, sure, but it's hard to see there.  Maybe guys in the press box.  I think the problem is coaching in the summer and during the week.  It's not enough for coaches to tell the players to do something; their job is to train them so they actually do it.  

Pressbox, sideline, wherever. Look at how many guys are standing around Joe Brady with binoculars on. I’m pretty sure they all have a cell phone. 😉 You’d think one of those dudes should be assigned to actually communicating stuff like that. No? Seems pathetic of the Chiefs to blame the refs for something they could’ve easily corrected long before it cost them a game.