Is Diggs done?

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Eh - he was getting absolutely mugged by sneed that entire game with 0 calls.   

Nah, that was good coverage. Sneed is very good. But Diggs has struggled to separate of late.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't see how it could be because Brady took over. His route depth has gone up slightly since week 10 so it isn't just because we're throwing more screens. His drop percentage skyrocketing isn't because of Brady. For whatever reason he has just been off his game for a few weeks, I don't think there is an explanation.

 

I'm guessing it's a combo of small scheme changes with Brady and an injury that is being hidden, plus the fact that the first half of the season showed other teams that "all we have is Diggs" so they double/blanket him. Not even mentioning that the refs also allow DBs to mug him however they want.

 

I expect Brady to get it figured out and better balanced as we get to the playoffs.

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Nah, that was good coverage. Sneed is very good. But Diggs has struggled to separate of late.

 

There were at least 2 big plays I can remember off the top of my head that Sneed should have been flagged and the refs did nothing.

 

The deep shot on our last FG drive. Sneed had him by the arm. Diggs should have done a better job of stopping to come back for the ball and fighting through Sneed to draw the easy DPI.

 

And a quick slant to Diggs with Sneed draped over him, and hanging off his left arm again, ripping his arm down before the ball even got there. Obvious. No flag.

 

Sneed, like most "good" DBs, is good because he is being allowed to be physical without the flags. Douglas or Benford try it and they get flagged all day.

4 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

I don't think it's scheme that's causing him to drop easy WR screen passes.

 

No, but that's one play and those stats cover a lot more than that. That was a bad drop at the end of the game and we definitely need better there from our superstar.

[dave mcbride]

26 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

There were at least 2 big plays I can remember off the top of my head that Sneed should have been flagged and the refs did nothing.

 

The deep shot on our last FG drive. Sneed had him by the arm. Diggs should have done a better job of stopping to come back for the ball and fighting through Sneed to draw the easy DPI.

 

And a quick slant to Diggs with Sneed draped over him, and hanging off his left arm again, ripping his arm down before the ball even got there. Obvious. No flag.

 

Sneed, like most "good" DBs, is good because he is being allowed to be physical without the flags. Douglas or Benford try it and they get flagged all day.

 

Enh ... I don't know about that. Diggs' game has always been a vast route tree plus short area quickness that gets him into a position where no DB has the ability to get to him slightly early. That's happening now, and we're complaining about it. He needs to more clearly separate. That's his game, not contested catches with sticky, handsy DBs. Complaining about the refs strikes me as whistling past the graveyard here. At the moment, he's not creating the separation necessary to obviate that sort of tactic by DBs. To be fair, in the last three games he's been covered by Sauce, Bradberry, and Sneed, who are all very good players. That should be factored in too.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Diggs has 5 drops the last 3 games, ouch. 
 

He’ll come around. If there is one dude In not worried about putting in the work, it’s Diggs. 

[Eastport bills]

Rather than start questioning this highly productive player, who has put up great numbers for the whole time he’s been here and been instrumental in Josh’s development, let’s give him a pass because the offense has been clicking while he’s been doubled and putting up good numbers while incorporating Cook, Kincaid and Shakir. It’s obvious that teams are determined to take him away. We will need him going forward and anyone who has watched him over the years knows how competitive he is. My sense is that he comes out against Dallas and Gilmore and makes a statement.

[BBFL]

3 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Rather than start questioning this highly productive player, who has put up great numbers for the whole time he’s been here and been instrumental in Josh’s development, let’s give him a pass because the offense has been clicking while he’s been doubled and putting up good numbers while incorporating Cook, Kincaid and Shakir. It’s obvious that teams are determined to take him away. We will need him going forward and anyone who has watched him over the years knows how competitive he is. My sense is that he comes out against Dallas and Gilmore and makes a statement.

The only reason it comes into question is a result of the talent behind him for Josh. Huge drop off. 

[longtimebillsfan]

On 12/10/2023 at 5:26 PM, harmonkillebrew said:

He was nonexistent today.  He dropped at least two screens. Sheffield was in for him again multiple times on key downs.

What is going with him and the WR corps more generally?? Was it scheme or is he experiencing a major drop off?

 

Gabe also put up another donut.

 

Josh was struggling all game to find anyone to throw it to.

 

 

Please keep in mind that the KC secondary grabs and holds on every play knowing that the refs will not throw a flag on every play.

 

That played a huge part in the lack of completions  to our wide outs.

[BBFL]

If he falls off you have guys who there is questions about or development players. Gave us the next best choice and he’s already hated upon and possibly out the door next season. 

[BADOLBILZ]

34 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Enh ... I don't know about that. Diggs' game has always been a vast route tree plus short area quickness that gets him into a position where no DB has the ability to get to him slightly early. That's happening now, and we're complaining about it. He needs to more clearly separate. That's his game, not contested catches with sticky, handsy DBs. Complaining about the refs strikes me as whistling past the graveyard here. At the moment, he's not creating the separation necessary to obviate that sort of tactic by DBs. To be fair, in the last three games he's been covered by Sauce, Bradberry, and Sneed, who are all very good players. That should be factored in too.  

 

 

I definitely think his recent slip is related to a back injury.   It explains the lack of flexibility needed to snap off some of his routes.    IMO it was inevitable with all the volume he has been getting in recent years.......and the fact that he's not as adept and not taking big hits like a guy like Hopkins.......that he would reach a point in a season or his career where he was compromised by injury, IMO.

[Eastport bills]

13 minutes ago, BBFL said:

The only reason it comes into question is a result of the talent behind him for Josh. Huge drop off. 

We still averaged 29 since Dorsey’s dismissal. If not using Diggs helped us run more, use Cook in the passing game and get Kincaid and Shakir more involved, it’s a good thing. That gives teams more to defend and should open up Diggs targets. If you watched the KC game, Diggs was smothered. 

[Playoffs?]

He seemed a little ‘checked out.’  Not saying he was.. just seemed that way a little. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I'm guessing it's a combo of small scheme changes with Brady and an injury that is being hidden, plus the fact that the first half of the season showed other teams that "all we have is Diggs" so they double/blanket him. Not even mentioning that the refs also allow DBs to mug him however they want.

 

I expect Brady to get it figured out and better balanced as we get to the playoffs.

 

There were at least 2 big plays I can remember off the top of my head that Sneed should have been flagged and the refs did nothing.

 

The deep shot on our last FG drive. Sneed had him by the arm. Diggs should have done a better job of stopping to come back for the ball and fighting through Sneed to draw the easy DPI.

 

And a quick slant to Diggs with Sneed draped over him, and hanging off his left arm again, ripping his arm down before the ball even got there. Obvious. No flag.

 

Sneed, like most "good" DBs, is good because he is being allowed to be physical without the flags. Douglas or Benford try it and they get flagged all day.

 

No, but that's one play and those stats cover a lot more than that. That was a bad drop at the end of the game and we definitely need better there from our superstar.

 

Sneed had his head around, which apparently matters more than actually playing the ball in the air instead of the person.  

22 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I definitely think his recent slip is related to a back injury.   It explains the lack of flexibility needed to snap off some of his routes.    IMO it was inevitable with all the volume he has been getting in recent years.......and the fact that he's not as adept and not taking big hits like a guy like Hopkins.......that he would reach a point in a season or his career where he was compromised by injury, IMO.

 

He's getting hit a lot more and a lot harder than he was in the first several weeks.  I honestly felt the drops were concentration due to wanting to avoid hits.  

[Drew21PA]

Wouldn’t say a guy that is going to go over 1,000 yards again this season and probably be close to 1400-1500 yards and 10 tds is “checked out” or “done”

 

sheesh

37 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Please keep in mind that the KC secondary grabs and holds on every play knowing that the refs will not throw a flag on every play.

 

That played a huge part in the lack of completions  to our wide outs.

Why guys like McDermott don’t grasp this is beyond me

 

and hea a defensive coach 

[BullBuchanan]

Yes.
 

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

He's getting hit a lot more and a lot harder than he was in the first several weeks.  I honestly felt the drops were concentration due to wanting to avoid hits.  

 

Agreed, especially on that late screen pass drop. He felt the DBs blowing through the blocks and turned his head upfield too quickly.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed, especially on that late screen pass drop. He felt the DBs blowing through the blocks and turned his head upfield too quickly.

 

Play was blown up too, another example of our predictable offense.  We crash the WLB, allen will throw the screen and we'll have two DBs crash down immediately. 

[kkim0904]

Diggs needs more deeper routes.  He is one of the best route runner in NFL. I hate seeing multiple 1 yard screen passes on early downs 

Edited December 13, 2023 by kkim0904

[BBFL]

1 minute ago, Eastport bills said:

We still averaged 29 since Dorsey’s dismissal. If not using Diggs helped us run more, use Cook in the passing game and get Kincaid and Shakir more involved, it’s a good thing. That gives teams more to defend and should open up Diggs targets. If you watched the KC game, Diggs was smothered. 

I agree, it is a good thing but both are developing players. Doesn’t matter if he’s smothered or not. He’s of the excellence where that shouldn’t be a problem game in, game out. Did it matter week 1 against Sauce or Miami’s decent secondary? I’m not denying he is a beast just that from observational he’s struggled in big games where the competition is tough which means we are seeing something surface which is a cause for concern going forward given the personnel and carry over into next year. 

[BarleyNY]

32 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Rather than start questioning this highly productive player, who has put up great numbers for the whole time he’s been here and been instrumental in Josh’s development, let’s give him a pass because the offense has been clicking while he’s been doubled and putting up good numbers while incorporating Cook, Kincaid and Shakir. It’s obvious that teams are determined to take him away. We will need him going forward and anyone who has watched him over the years knows how competitive he is. My sense is that he comes out against Dallas and Gilmore and makes a statement.

 

I don’t disagree with any of that, but it’s important to look at things realistically too. Diggs has been a top WR in this league. Top 5. Top 8. However you want to slice it. I lived the trade for him at the time and love it still. 

 

But he’s 30 now and he’s more of a top 16 WR now. (I like to use 4/8/16/32 due to there being 32 teams.) I’m still very happy to have him on the Bills.

 

Looking forward, the big fall off for WRs tends to be around age 31. I expect Diggs to have another good, top 16-ish WR season next year and I think he’ll stay a Bill through that season.

 

But you have got to look at the money going to him too. His AAV is still top 5 among WRs. While the cap and contracts continue to increase, it doesn’t take a math major to see that Diggs will soon be very overpaid for his contributions.

 

One last point: people have mentioned that he doesn’t rely on stellar physical tools to win as a WR. That’s true. That may extend his career as a productive role player, but not as a top flight WR. He likely will have the role of savvy vet on a SB contending team. But he won’t be paid anything like the Bills are scheduled to pay him. There will likely be a transitional period where he gets released by the Bills and overpaid elsewhere so I don’t expect him to stay here with a pay cut. After that he will have the option to chase a ring again if he doesn’t already have one. 

[without a drought]

He should just line up 5 yards downfield.