Tommy Callahan Posted April 5 Posted April 5 Any take on the huge divergence between the CES and CPS as it keeps growing every month. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm?ref=dismal-jellyfish.com The CES is commonly referred to as the ‘payroll survey’ and the CPS as the ‘household survey’. CES collects survey data from a sample of employers then adjusts the data to reflect insights from ES-202 data. CPS only surveys households, inquiring about the employment status of residents. https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/03/the-employment-situation-release-and-business-cycle-indicators-for-february
The Frankish Reich Posted April 5 Posted April 5 12 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: Any take on the huge divergence between the CES and CPS as it keeps growing every month. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm?ref=dismal-jellyfish.com The CES is commonly referred to as the ‘payroll survey’ and the CPS as the ‘household survey’. CES collects survey data from a sample of employers then adjusts the data to reflect insights from ES-202 data. CPS only surveys households, inquiring about the employment status of residents. https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/03/the-employment-situation-release-and-business-cycle-indicators-for-february The first link you provide gives a full explanation of how the data are collected and why they may diverge. Read it! 1
B-Man Posted April 5 Posted April 5 BIDENOMICS IN ONE LESSON: Job Creators Network Reacts to March Jobs Report. “Looking under the hood of today’s jobs report shows it isn’t the home run that Democrats and the media claim. Approximately, half of all jobs created last month came in unproductive government or quasi-government healthcare sectors. Full-time jobs continue to decline, while part-time jobs are on the rise. And average wages are growing slower than inflation again, meaning Americans are suffering declining living standards. The Main Street labor market is far weaker than the topline numbers or the conditions on Wall Street or K Street suggest.” https://www.jobcreatorsnetwork.com/press_releases/job-creators-network-reacts-to-march-jobs-report/ . 1
All_Pro_Bills Posted April 5 Posted April 5 23 minutes ago, B-Man said: BIDENOMICS IN ONE LESSON: Job Creators Network Reacts to March Jobs Report. “Looking under the hood of today’s jobs report shows it isn’t the home run that Democrats and the media claim. Approximately, half of all jobs created last month came in unproductive government or quasi-government healthcare sectors. Full-time jobs continue to decline, while part-time jobs are on the rise. And average wages are growing slower than inflation again, meaning Americans are suffering declining living standards. The Main Street labor market is far weaker than the topline numbers or the conditions on Wall Street or K Street suggest.” https://www.jobcreatorsnetwork.com/press_releases/job-creators-network-reacts-to-march-jobs-report/ . What raises my suspicions more than anything is the statistics of the numbers. This year so far, three statistically significant "beats" of consensus by what statisticians characterize as 5, 3, and 4 sigma. Two beats of such magnitude would be incredible but three in a row seems impossible. Has every professional job market expect that for decades nailed the jobs number every month lost their mojo? That would seem to be one logical conclusion unless you beleive the numbers are fake. 1
OrangeBills Posted April 5 Posted April 5 The WSJ broke the buck here with the proper/obvious explanation...the recent "immigrants" are keeping the US Job Machine alive... Everyday Americans must work 2-3 jobs to pay all these inflated prices, but it's "Immigration" that is firing up the Jobs reports. https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/unemployment-jobs-report-us-immigration-surge-8e260f47?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1 1
Wacka Posted May 5 Posted May 5 (edited) As Joke once said "It's a three letter word. J O B S. Edited May 8 by Wacka 1
Tommy Callahan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 Inflation is the tax we all pay. If the fed pivots to a cut with inflation like this, it's a slap in the face of main Street, fixed income, middle class, working poor and people in poverty. As a cut would ad more liquidity and more inflation. 1
Irv Posted May 8 Posted May 8 2 minutes ago, BillStime said: Buying votes in a swing state during an election year. Gee. Never saw that coming. Meanwhile the rest of the country is burning down. Demented Biden botches another thing. What a mess. 1
BillStime Posted May 8 Posted May 8 21 minutes ago, Irv said: Buying votes in a swing state during an election year. Gee. Never saw that coming. Meanwhile the rest of the country is burning down. Demented Biden botches another thing. What a mess. MAGA tears are delicious.
Tommy Callahan Posted May 8 Posted May 8 38 minutes ago, Irv said: Buying votes in a swing state during an election year. Gee. Never saw that coming. Meanwhile the rest of the country is burning down. Demented Biden botches another thing. What a mess. its why they rage and focus on trump vs the realities that the party and positions they support, are hurting most americans. and the moron replies about maga tears. Effing idiot on levels. 1
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted May 9 Posted May 9 10 hours ago, BillStime said: MAGA tears are delicious. Don't you live in America too? Don't you buy anything? How could you be cheering for this? 2
BillStime Posted May 9 Posted May 9 4 minutes ago, AlBUNDY4TDS said: Don't you live in America too? Don't you buy anything? How could you be cheering for this? Yes I live in and love America. I am also ok w our tax dollars going to create jobs. Are you and @Tommy Callahanupset w tax dollars being spent on the Bills stadium? Don't you love the Bills? 1
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