DrDawkinstein Posted January 4 Author Posted January 4 34 minutes ago, Einstein said: Tompsett is often wrong. Just FYI. He has admitted to not even reading the balance sheet of how the cap is being formulated and just basing his numbers off what OTC speculates. Sure. But I think the bigger, and more accurate, point is that the Bills have about $85M they could gain regardless of exactly how over they are, which should put them about $40M-$55M under. His first 3 phases are all no-brainers IMO Quote
Beck Water Posted January 4 Posted January 4 3 hours ago, NewEra said: I think you’re underestimating the impact of having an OC that’s in tune with the roster. Dorsey was all in on Diggs and neglected cook. Brady is the opposite while having no clue how to use his 2 good TEs (which can offset your need for having 4 good WRs). It's not an answer to your question, but I'll pop in here to say this: I do sincerely hope this team conducts a careful, thorough, and meaningful search for an OC this off-season. I questioned whether Baltimore was cray-cray to get rid of Roman when he'd basically been their OC through 3 playoff appearances and OC'd Jackson to a league MVP. But watching them this season, they were absolutely correct to move on (as well as to make every effort to upgrade their WR corps) Their offense looks so much smoother and easier this season. 2 2 Quote
NewEra Posted January 4 Posted January 4 39 minutes ago, Beck Water said: It's not an answer to your question, but I'll pop in here to say this: I do sincerely hope this team conducts a careful, thorough, and meaningful search for an OC this off-season. I questioned whether Baltimore was cray-cray to get rid of Roman when he'd basically been their OC through 3 playoff appearances and OC'd Jackson to a league MVP. But watching them this season, they were absolutely correct to move on (as well as to make every effort to upgrade their WR corps) Their offense looks so much smoother and easier this season. 💯 It’s the most important decision of the offseason and one of the most important decisions in this franchises history. We can’t afford to hire someone that wastes another 2 years of 17. If we lose Sunday- I’d just prefer to fire McD and hire Ben Johnson to 15M per year. Not making the playoffs this season is a fireable offense. Firing McD and hiring Johnson would almost eliminate any chances of making a mistake in hiring the new voice for Josh Allen to listen to. He’d probably have a 3-4 year leash and I’d really like for Josh to have the same voice in his brain and extended period of time. I feel he needs continuity. Johnson would allow that continuity. I’m not gonna lie, I’m worried about McD making a massive mistake in this regard. that said- I think we defeat Miami and make the playoffs which gives Brady at least one more opportunity to earn the job. If our offense doesn’t get any better than the last 2 games, Brady needs to go. 1 Quote
DrDawkinstein Posted January 5 Author Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Beck Water said: It's not an answer to your question, but I'll pop in here to say this: I do sincerely hope this team conducts a careful, thorough, and meaningful search for an OC this off-season. I questioned whether Baltimore was cray-cray to get rid of Roman when he'd basically been their OC through 3 playoff appearances and OC'd Jackson to a league MVP. But watching them this season, they were absolutely correct to move on (as well as to make every effort to upgrade their WR corps) Their offense looks so much smoother and easier this season. We need to fill both Coordinator positions this offseason. I'm interested in Bobby Babich as DC, but if Saleh gets fired I wonder if he would go for a season or two in Buffalo. No idea at OC. Seems if they are half decent enough to be an OC, some team already made them a Head Coach! Quote
EmotionallyUnstable Posted January 5 Posted January 5 (edited) 11 hours ago, NewEra said: He’s under contract next year. Both he and Dawkins expire after next season Im 100% in on a Dawkins extension. 11 hours ago, Simon said: I don't know if facts bear it out, but I get the sense that this is about the time the Bills tend to look for replacements when contracts are expiring next year. Maybe for Brown, but is it possible they think a guy like VanDemark could develop? How often do we hear about the back end OL talent developing and it never comes to fruition. 9 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: In general agree, but we have too many holes to fill and not enough high picks to fill them to spend another pick that high on double dipping. Bills currently have 10 picks. 1st 2nd 4th 5th 5th 6th 6th 6th 6th 7th I believe we're expecting to get a 3rd for Edmunds as well. Giving us 11. I could see Beane using a couple of those 6th to package with a 5th or 4th and moving up in those rounds. So maybe a 2nd WR there if the right guy falls. But it will take some luck and finagling. Go Bills On the contrary I think they’re going to end up using those picks on special teamers, secondary players, or other pieces to the puzzle. You’re right they have a lot to cover, and the draft is the cheapest and most selective way to get a particular skill you’re looking for on the cheap. IMO guys like Siran Neal and Matekavich can be easily replaced. I personally care very little about special teams. 8 hours ago, MAJBobby said: I love this and now have it saved for prep for the offseason threads that I will make. A couple things right off my head looking at the releases. Hines - I think this release makes sense and not needed to replace in UFA so likely a cheap Draft pick to fill this roll. Harty - I think a draft pick fills this roll. Siran Neal - ST Stud, but I also think this is a roll a draft pick can fill Sam Martin - Starting punter. I am not sure there is a better one that will be cheaper so I think the 1M in savings is insignificant for him, I would keep him on the roster. Release Poyer - I would do this his play has fallen off big time IMO. However Hyde being a UFA might force their hand here. However here are some younger Safeties that are scheduled to hit the market (Knowing one will likely already be needed for Hyde) - Xavier McKinney (SS, 24 yrs, projected 10M AAV), Kamren Curl (SS, 25 yrs, projected 10-15AAV), Antoine Winfield Jr. (FS, 25 yrs, projected 15 - 19M AAV). Those are just some. I think I would sign one and Draft one. Move on from both Poyer and Hyde. Tre White - This one I think actually could happen to be honest. Douglas has solidified the CB, Benford, Tre could be someone on the move. However I almost think he will be back and 6M savings while not insignificant, I dont think you will get the White play from a CB that you sign in that 6M range. However the injured mounting with him will be a concern for a CB that wasnt that speedy prior too anyway. Big one is IF we release Morse you are moving on from the captain and pivot of an OL that finally has been respectable this year. I am not sure I would want to shake this up, specially for a draft pick. However to get younger at the position you will end up paying a UFA. Connor Williams is the only one on the market I would feel ok with moving on from Morse for (27 years, projected to make 14M) Most of the moves are actaully pretty easy decisions. And at the end of next year we will get out of the boat anchor that is Invisible Von Millers contract. 1) Yes, agreed on Siran. 2) If McDermott is still at the helm, I feel confident he’ll be able to find adequate replacements in the draft. We don’t have the luxury of being able to sign two future all-pro safeties as we did when McD first was up and coming. In fact, neither were all that highly touted. They developed into that caliber of a player under McD and I have believe he can get enough from others that it won’t be a major concern 3) Zero expectations from this guy moving forward. Unfortunate end to a fantastic Buffalo career. Not sure what, if anything, he’ll have left…and I’m willing to doubt it likely won’t be worth the savings. Edited January 5 by EmotionallyUnstable 1 Quote
Einstein Posted January 5 Posted January 5 2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: Sure. But I think the bigger, and more accurate, point is that the Bills have about $85M they could gain regardless of exactly how over they are, which should put them about $40M-$55M under. His first 3 phases are all no-brainers IMO Im not seeing $55M at all. Maybe $40M (if you believe OTC). But let’s take $40M - that’ll be gone so fast our heads will spin. We have to replace Micah Hyde, DaQuan Jones, Leonard Floyd, Dane Jackson, Jordan Phillips, Tyrel Dodson, AJ Epenesa, Gabe Davis, Shaq Lawson, Cam Lewis, AND sign 9 draft picks. I also dont love the idea of restructuring Diggs. Diggs only has 3 years left on his contract after next season. Restructuring makes those last 3 years nearly impossible. We could free up $14M in cap space this off-season but then Diggs cap would be well over $30 million after that. His cap hit would be $31M in 2025, $32M in 2026 and $26M in 2027. Then what? And he would be untradeable and impossible to cut (ever), since his dead cap would be more than $20M every single yeargoing forward. I can almost guarantee the Bills don’t do this. If we replace all of the players we are losing with draft picks… we are going to be in for a tough year IMO. 1 Quote
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted January 5 Posted January 5 Lot will depend on this Sunday and the playoffs. A month ago I was thinking this season out of playoffs, next season good time to retool the roster. But if they win Sunday and got deep, then maybe a small retool is only needed and worth kicking the can down the road some more. Quote
Beck Water Posted January 5 Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said: 2) If McDermott is still at the helm, I feel confident he’ll be able to find adequate replacements in the draft. We don’t have the luxury of being able to sign two all-pro safeties as we did when McD first was up and coming. In fact, neither were all that highly touted. They developed into that caliber of a player under McD and I have believe he can get enough from others that it won’t be a major concern You kind of allude to this in your third sentence, but create some possible confusion with your second. To be perfectly clear, we did NOT sign two "all-pro safeties". If I remember correctly, GB wasn't too sure how to use Hyde; I believe they started his last year there having him return punts some and playing him at nickel, and only moved him to safety due to injury a couple games in. Poyer was starting at Safety for the Browns, but after he went on IR with a lacerated kidney partway through the season, they kicked him to the curb. You're very correct that they developed as they did under McDermott I think you know this, but the comment about "luxury of being able to sign two all-pro safeties as we did when McD was first up and coming" makes it sound as though that's what we did, and it's not. 1 1 Quote
peterpan Posted January 22 Posted January 22 On 12/5/2023 at 11:27 PM, DrDawkinstein said: Greg Tompsett is making the podcast rounds in the bye week this week and talking cap. Gave a pretty detailed plan on Cover1 and showed how the Bills could get themselves to about $72M UNDER the cap. Or $56M under without anything too crazy. Worth watching, or at least clicking around through, for anyone concerned with our cap situation next year. He was also on Locked On Bills to discuss our Free Agents and re-signing options As a little preview, the detailed plan to get to $72M... No Brainers - Cap Saved Restructure Josh - $23M Restructure Diggs - $13M Restructure Ed - $3M Release Hines - $5M Release Harty - $4M Total - $48M Being $29M OVER cap right now, these moves alone put us $19M UNDER. Tompsett's Preferred/Likely Moves - Cap Savings Extend Dawkins - $7M Extend Douglas - $6M Extend Johnson - $5M Release Siran Neal - $3M Release Sam Martin - $1M Restructure McGovern - $3M With these moves added to the above, the Bills would be $44M UNDER Painful but Possible - Cap Savings Release Poyer - $5.5M Release Tre - $6M Bills now $56M UNDER Prefer Not - Cap Savings Restructure Milano - $2.5M Restructure Knox - $6M Trade Elam - $165k Release Bates - $1.5M Release Morse - $5.5M Bills now $72M UNDER I type all that to once again reiterate, the cap is a myth. So what stud WRs can we add with all this cap savings? Quote
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted January 22 Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, peterpan said: So what stud WRs can we add with all this cap savings? Can we use cap space to bribe GMs to get a better draft pick? I know you're trolling, but WR is going to be a big focus in the draft Quote
DrDawkinstein Posted January 22 Author Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, peterpan said: So what stud WRs can we add with all this cap savings? With this draft class, get one in the 1st and one in the 4th/5th and we are set for a while. Quote
pennstate10 Posted January 24 Posted January 24 On 1/4/2024 at 4:45 PM, Maine-iac said: Can we boot Harty and Sherfield and take a 2nd WR in the 5th or 6th who can return punts and use the money to sign Josh Reynolds? I don't think we'd bring him in as WR 2 or 3 but he's probably what we wanted when we signed Sherfield. Bills already did that. Signed KJ Hamler. good signing if injuries haven’t sapped his speed. Quote
steven50 Posted January 24 Posted January 24 "For me, I'm always going where the money is," Floyd said. "Play for another team, but I'd rather be here, but it is what is it; it's a business. I'm gonna go wherever my agent feels like we get the most money from." https://www.buffalobills.com/news/micah-hyde-gabe-davis-mitch-morse-and-more-address-their-future-with-the-buffalo-bills Quote
QCity Posted January 24 Posted January 24 This might be the most mindless cap breakdown I've ever seen. He's essentially just reading Spotrac to you. Every single team in the league can create cap space by restructuring 6 or 7 players, and then releasing another 10 players and pretending their replacements will cost nothing. If anyone is serious about learning more about cap management this is the last video you want to watch. It's nonsensical comfort food. 1 1 1 1 Quote
Aussie Joe Posted January 24 Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, QCity said: This might be the most mindless cap breakdown I've ever seen. He's essentially just reading Spotrac to you. Every single team in the league can create cap space by restructuring 6 or 7 players, and then releasing another 10 players and pretending their replacements will cost nothing. If anyone is serious about learning more about cap management this is the last video you want to watch. It's nonsensical comfort food. it’s what Beane did last year though … Quote
John from Riverside Posted January 24 Posted January 24 With hide possibly retiring, would like to see Poyer here at least one more year to help with a rookie safety that we will draft in the second round Quote
BuffaloRebound Posted January 24 Posted January 24 (edited) I’m not restructuring Diggs. I’m fine with him staying but if there’s a peep from him or any of his people this off-season or if he misses any voluntary workouts for anything other than a birth of a child or family emergency, I want him gone. I’m bringing Poyer back. He’s not that expensive and showed he’s got something left. Knox takes a pay cut or is gone. That contract was horrible the minute he signed it and has gotten worse. He’d be lucky to get $5m per year right now if released and with Kincaid he’s probably worth less than $5m per year to the Bills. No way I’m releasing Morse or Bates. Keep the O Line intact. And I’m not restructuring Milano. He’s 30 years old coming off a 2nd major injury. And I’m not paying Von a penny more than his guarantees that have already kicked in. If he doesn’t take a $6m paycut on the money that becomes guaranteed this March, I cut him and split the dead cap over next 2 years. Edited January 24 by BuffaloRebound Quote
ngbills Posted January 24 Posted January 24 Hines and Harty for $9m. As bad as Klein on Kelce or damar the ball carrier on a fake punt. Quote
TheFunPolice Posted January 24 Posted January 24 (edited) We'll just have to hope Von Miller returns to being even a pretty good DE who can make a few plays. He did show some signs of life late in the season and in the playoffs, so there is some hope there. It just makes no sense to cut him. We'll be fine cap-wise. There's always moves to make. Edited January 24 by TheFunPolice Quote
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted January 24 Posted January 24 (edited) On 1/22/2024 at 10:27 AM, DrDawkinstein said: With this draft class, get one in the 1st and one in the 4th/5th and we are set for a while. I know draft projection by fans is just projection (as if drafting itself) , but Draftek has been a fairly reliable indicator over the past few years. They have 14 WRs who at the very least match the physical characteristics bigger than Peerless Price (6'0 and 185 lbs or bigger) in their top 100. One of those guys are almost assured to be there at 28. Gabe and Shakir were at their best as #3-4 options, and that's not a bad thing. Draft a guy in the pipeline, see what you can get out of Shorter. This seems like the year to do it. Add in the fact that the Bills have 9 picks, they have ammunition to go up and get a guy if there's someone they like just out of reach. 32 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said: We'll just have to hope Von Miller returns to being even a pretty good DE who can make a few plays. He did show some signs of life late in the season and in the playoffs, so there is some hope there. It just makes no sense to cut him. We'll be fine cap-wise. There's always moves to make. That's where I am. I am not going to advocate for getting rid of a HOF player for dead cap and a roster hole. Stand pat on his contract. If he gets suspended, that's cap savings. If he returns to form, boom, you now have leverage on his contract to cut or renegotiate. If he's washed, you can get cap in 2025 and be free and clear in 2026 Edited January 24 by WhitewalkerInPhilly Quote
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