DrDawkinstein Posted January 4 Author Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: Well, I guess it will be RD 1 WR, Diggs, Shakir, Harty and Shorter. Diggs RD 1 Rookie Shakir Shorter Isabella Free Agent Just now, Warriorspikes51 said: Unless Harty is a shock the rest of the way....he's done nothing to warrant a spot next year. Diggs Veteran FA / Trade if possible Round 1 WR Shakir Round 2 WR If Beane spends a 2nd on a guy we think is going to be our 5th WR then that is a fireable offense. We have GAPING holes at starting positions on Defense. Between the following pass catchers: Diggs Rookie Shakir Kincaid Knox Cook We're already talking about our 7th best option. No need to get that deep when we have only 1 DT under contract next year, and only 1 starting DE under contract. 2 1 Quote
julian Posted January 4 Posted January 4 WR DL Safety … they have to address these positions in some form or fashion. Quote
SoonerBillsFan Posted January 4 Posted January 4 2 hours ago, finn said: Von will be a tough call. It comes down to whether he's worth the $7 million in savings they'd get if they cut him; the rest of his salary is guaranteed. He's just taking up a roster spot at this point, but it's possible he return to form next year. Tre White is another tough one, could depend on whether Elam develops. The only easy cut is Harty, who just catches punts and falls down. Sounds like Hines will be back, so at least we'll have someone to return kickoffs. I would not restructure Diggs until it's more clear what is up with him. I don't Restructure a contract for a 30 yo WR who has essentially disappeared the 2nd half of the season. Quote
DrDawkinstein Posted January 4 Author Posted January 4 1 minute ago, SoonerBillsFan said: I don't Restructure a contract for a 30 yo WR who has essentially disappeared the 2nd half of the season. But given the numbers, the kick-the-can restructure doesnt really change much on Diggs. He's here through 2025 either way, and then we still have an out if we really needed it. 1 1 Quote
NewEra Posted January 4 Posted January 4 18 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: So we agree on the 1st Round pick at WR. But $3M - $5M FA WR is Harty (2 years, $9M). $1M - $3M FA WR is veteran minimum Sherfield type player. So effectively, let’s bypass FA at WR and use a 1st and 3rd/4th on another WR. Because <$5M WR isn’t going to do anything. That WR may be Harty. He may be DJ Chark. Or Juju. We also may not even need that WR because we’d have Diggs/1st rd WR/kincaid/shakir in 4 WR sets. Then add knox. Shakir isn’t a star but he’s a very good 4th-5th option in the passing game. looking at our offense this year- we only need to replace Gabe (which will be 1st rd WR) and the Sherfield/Harty slot. They rarely ever see the field at the same time. Shorter will replace Sherfield and another draft pick/FA to replace Harty. plus we need to replace/resign: Floyd, epenesa, Shaq, daquan, Jphillips, settle, and joseph. The DL has saved our season and any McD coached D has no chance without a talented DL. sure it would be nice to add another 15M-18m WR like evans, but not at the expense of Leonard Floyd and Daquan 1 1 Quote
finn Posted January 4 Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: We're already talking about our 7th best option. No need to get that deep when we have only 1 DT under contract next year, and only 1 starting DE under contract. I imagine that will change quickly. Lawson, Phillips, Settle, and Ford shouldn't be too expensive. I hate losing Floyd, but maybe Beane can re-sign him since he is north of 30 and appears to like the team. Hard to say if Floyd or Jones is the higher priority. Both are key players. I suspect Beane will be able to sign one of them. If Poyer can play one more year, that leaves just free safety to fill, given that Miller or Phillips will replace Floyd or Jones. But, wow, do they ever need wide receivers. If Diggs really is now no more than a possession receiver, that leaves just Shakir and the sound of crickets. Quote
MAJBobby Posted January 4 Posted January 4 On 12/5/2023 at 11:27 PM, DrDawkinstein said: Greg Tompsett is making the podcast rounds in the bye week this week and talking cap. Gave a pretty detailed plan on Cover1 and showed how the Bills could get themselves to about $72M UNDER the cap. Or $56M under without anything too crazy. Worth watching, or at least clicking around through, for anyone concerned with our cap situation next year. He was also on Locked On Bills to discuss our Free Agents and re-signing options As a little preview, the detailed plan to get to $72M... No Brainers - Cap Saved Restructure Josh - $23M Restructure Diggs - $13M Restructure Ed - $3M Release Hines - $5M Release Harty - $4M Total - $48M Being $29M OVER cap right now, these moves alone put us $19M UNDER. Tompsett's Preferred/Likely Moves - Cap Savings Extend Dawkins - $7M Extend Douglas - $6M Extend Johnson - $5M Release Siran Neal - $3M Release Sam Martin - $1M Restructure McGovern - $3M With these moves added to the above, the Bills would be $44M UNDER Painful but Possible - Cap Savings Release Poyer - $5.5M Release Tre - $6M Bills now $56M UNDER Prefer Not - Cap Savings Restructure Milano - $2.5M Restructure Knox - $6M Trade Elam - $165k Release Bates - $1.5M Release Morse - $5.5M Bills now $72M UNDER I type all that to once again reiterate, the cap is a myth. I love this and now have it saved for prep for the offseason threads that I will make. A couple things right off my head looking at the releases. Hines - I think this release makes sense and not needed to replace in UFA so likely a cheap Draft pick to fill this roll. Harty - I think a draft pick fills this roll. Siran Neal - ST Stud, but I also think this is a roll a draft pick can fill Sam Martin - Starting punter. I am not sure there is a better one that will be cheaper so I think the 1M in savings is insignificant for him, I would keep him on the roster. Release Poyer - I would do this his play has fallen off big time IMO. However Hyde being a UFA might force their hand here. However here are some younger Safeties that are scheduled to hit the market (Knowing one will likely already be needed for Hyde) - Xavier McKinney (SS, 24 yrs, projected 10M AAV), Kamren Curl (SS, 25 yrs, projected 10-15AAV), Antoine Winfield Jr. (FS, 25 yrs, projected 15 - 19M AAV). Those are just some. I think I would sign one and Draft one. Move on from both Poyer and Hyde. Tre White - This one I think actually could happen to be honest. Douglas has solidified the CB, Benford, Tre could be someone on the move. However I almost think he will be back and 6M savings while not insignificant, I dont think you will get the White play from a CB that you sign in that 6M range. However the injured mounting with him will be a concern for a CB that wasnt that speedy prior too anyway. Big one is IF we release Morse you are moving on from the captain and pivot of an OL that finally has been respectable this year. I am not sure I would want to shake this up, specially for a draft pick. However to get younger at the position you will end up paying a UFA. Connor Williams is the only one on the market I would feel ok with moving on from Morse for (27 years, projected to make 14M) Most of the moves are actaully pretty easy decisions. And at the end of next year we will get out of the boat anchor that is Invisible Von Millers contract. 2 Quote
DrDawkinstein Posted January 4 Author Posted January 4 17 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Big one is IF we release Morse you are moving on from the captain and pivot of an OL that finally has been respectable this year. I am not sure I would want to shake this up, specially for a draft pick. However to get younger at the position you will end up paying a UFA. Connor Williams is the only one on the market I would feel ok with moving on from Morse for (27 years, projected to make 14M) Most of the moves are actaully pretty easy decisions. And at the end of next year we will get out of the boat anchor that is Invisible Von Millers contract. If we do move on from Morse, I think Bates is the heir apparent at Center. At least for a season or two. Could draft a new Center in 2025, have him sit behind Bates as IOL depth and then take over once Bates's contract is done. 1 Quote
MAJBobby Posted January 4 Posted January 4 1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said: If we do move on from Morse, I think Bates is the heir apparent at Center. At least for a season or two. Could draft a new Center in 2025, have him sit behind Bates as IOL depth and then take over once Bates's contract is done. I would think that would be their plan A as well. I just worry about breaking up what finally looks like a good OL. I know Bates has shown well given his opportunities as well. I know my thinking for when I write this offseason stuff up, going back to the Old Days of Bills thinking... No long term contracts for UFAs that are over 26 years old. Because they reality is they need to start shifting to where there cap is allocated, we have alot tied up in older players for still years. Young UFAs (Long term) Old UFAS (1-2 year deals) Start Drafting in the aging positions. 1 Quote
LABILLBACKER Posted January 4 Posted January 4 I agree with every restructure/release except Hines & Bates. We have literally no return game. Give him one last year to bring back some return magic. And Bates is too valuable as a backup rotational player. He may even end up replacing Morse. The way Knox contributes, 6M isn't enough? Quote
Straight Hucklebuck Posted January 4 Posted January 4 44 minutes ago, NewEra said: That WR may be Harty. He may be DJ Chark. Or Juju. We also may not even need that WR because we’d have Diggs/1st rd WR/kincaid/shakir in 4 WR sets. Then add knox. Shakir isn’t a star but he’s a very good 4th-5th option in the passing game. looking at our offense this year- we only need to replace Gabe (which will be 1st rd WR) and the Sherfield/Harty slot. They rarely ever see the field at the same time. Shorter will replace Sherfield and another draft pick/FA to replace Harty. plus we need to replace/resign: Floyd, epenesa, Shaq, daquan, Jphillips, settle, and joseph. The DL has saved our season and any McD coached D has no chance without a talented DL. sure it would be nice to add another 15M-18m WR like evans, but not at the expense of Leonard Floyd and Daquan Until Diggs or the Rookie R1 WR gets hurt, in which case Shakir slides up a peg, and you don't have any useable WRs in slots #4, #5, #6. It's one storyline that has been talked about on here - the Bills have been virtually injury free on offense outside of Knox. In this scenario, hopefully Shorter can outplay his 5th Round draft slot. Only concern with DaQuan and Floyd is giving money to guys who are both 32+ when next season starts. 1 Quote
LABILLBACKER Posted January 4 Posted January 4 On 12/5/2023 at 9:17 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said: I forget Hyde is a UFA. They probably keep Poyer and draft Hydes replacement. I would rather keep Hyde and draft Poyer’s replacement. I'd rather wish them both the best. The days of the dynamic duo are over. Time to get young and draft safeties. Quote
NewEra Posted January 4 Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: Until Diggs or the Rookie R1 WR gets hurt, in which case Shakir slides up a peg, and you don't have any useable WRs in slots #4, #5, #6. It's one storyline that has been talked about on here - the Bills have been virtually injury free on offense outside of Knox. In this scenario, hopefully Shorter can outplay his 5th Round draft slot. Only concern with DaQuan and Floyd is giving money to guys who are both 32+ when next season starts. What nfl teams have such an embarrassment of riches where if they lose a top WR, they have great replacements? Our problems lie in that gabe isn’t a great 2 and Sheffield and Harty aren’t good options @ WR4-5. Drafting a WR2 in rd 1 and landing wr 4-5 later in the draft and in FA. We’re 30m over the cap and we have 8 FA DL. 8. Sometimes you can’t address everything with premium resources. Get ready for drafting a DL in rd 1 or 2 + another DL in rd 3-4 in addition to resigning a handful of returners Quote
Straight Hucklebuck Posted January 4 Posted January 4 1 hour ago, NewEra said: That WR may be Harty. He may be DJ Chark. Or Juju. We also may not even need that WR because we’d have Diggs/1st rd WR/kincaid/shakir in 4 WR sets. Then add knox. Shakir isn’t a star but he’s a very good 4th-5th option in the passing game. looking at our offense this year- we only need to replace Gabe (which will be 1st rd WR) and the Sherfield/Harty slot. They rarely ever see the field at the same time. Shorter will replace Sherfield and another draft pick/FA to replace Harty. plus we need to replace/resign: Floyd, epenesa, Shaq, daquan, Jphillips, settle, and joseph. The DL has saved our season and any McD coached D has no chance without a talented DL. sure it would be nice to add another 15M-18m WR like evans, but not at the expense of Leonard Floyd and Daquan No way Beane envisioned 14-138-1 when he signed Harty to 2 years, $9M. I don’t know what he did or didn’t do to show this coaching staff that he needs to be on the field. But two coordinators so far barely use him. He’ll catch a critical 25-yard pass in Kansas City, and then not touch the ball on offense for 3 weeks? He gets 3 snaps against the Bengals, Josh looks for him deep immediately. NO PLAN We saw the same thing with Nyheim Hines last year. Absolute disconnect between the GM and Coaching Staff, swept under the rug by hard to catch a RB up in this system. Quote
NewEra Posted January 4 Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: I'd rather wish them both the best. The days of the dynamic duo are over. Time to get young and draft safeties. You 💯 underestimate their worth. I think it may be time to move on as well, but I’d rather wait to see how the season progresses before counting them out. they love playing together for for mcd. If they’re willing to come back at a combined 10m or less per year- McD will find a way to bring them back. Our Dabs have been awesome this season and they’re a big part of their success. Quote
Straight Hucklebuck Posted January 4 Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, NewEra said: What nfl teams have such an embarrassment of riches where if they lose a top WR, they have great replacements? Our problems lie in that gabe isn’t a great 2 and Sheffield and Harty aren’t good options @ WR4-5. Drafting a WR2 in rd 1 and landing wr 4-5 later in the draft and in FA. We’re 30m over the cap and we have 8 FA DL. 8. Sometimes you can’t address everything with premium resources. Get ready for drafting a DL in rd 1 or 2 + another DL in rd 3-4 in addition to resigning a handful of returners Allen is the franchise. Beane has got him Diggs and Kincaid, with no other premium investment since 2019. And we wonder why this offense comes and goes. Somehow get your hands on two WRs that actually can play. If not, we’ll be here again next season. 1 1 Quote
NewEra Posted January 4 Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: No way Beane envisioned 14-138-1 when he signed Harty to 2 years, $9M. I don’t know what he did or didn’t do to show this coaching staff that he needs to be on the field. But two coordinators so far barely use him. He’ll catch a critical 25-yard pass in Kansas City, and then not touch the ball on offense for 3 weeks? He gets 3 snaps against the Bengals, Josh looks for him deep immediately. NO PLAN We saw the same thing with Nyheim Hines last year. Absolute disconnect between the GM and Coaching Staff, swept under the rug by hard to catch a RB up in this system. Who’s saying that’s what they envisioned? 🤷🏻♂️ It’s as simple as this: they made mistakes in Harty and Sherfield. Just because they made a mistake on them doesn’t mean they can’t go back to the well and sign players to similar contracts after investing their best asset into the positions (basically 2 years in a row with Kincaid). It’s the likely scenario imo. Rd 1 WR + 2 mid WR FAs or RD 1 WR + WR mid rd pick + mid FA. but maybe your right and they pivot to load up on O. The o has had their issues and maybe they want to make sure they put their best foot forward to fix it. A lot may depend on how “all in” they want to go by kicking lots more money down the road. Knowing this regime, I think they'll mortgage some future cap but not as much as some of you guy want….. and probably not enough to satisfy both the defensive needs and needs at WR. There will likely have to be some compromise jmo Quote
SCBills Posted January 4 Posted January 4 RD1 WR, double dip WR again in the first 4 Rounds. Then focus on the Defense with the remaining picks (DT, CB, S) I'd cut Poyer and Tre, and prioritize bringing back Jones and Floyd or AJE. Keep the DL a strength, and then with Milano, Bernard, Johnson, Douglas and Benford, we can allow for two new Safeties to learn throughout the season and reset the position with youth. Quote
NewEra Posted January 4 Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: Allen is the franchise. Beane has got him Diggs and Kincaid, with no other premium investment since 2019. And we wonder why this offense comes and goes. Somehow get your hands on two WRs that actually can play. If not, we’ll be here again next season. I think you’re underestimating the impact of having an OC that’s in tune with the roster. Dorsey was all in on Diggs and neglected cook. Brady is the opposite while having no clue how to use his 2 good TEs (which can offset your need for having 4 good WRs). Again I’ll ask- which teams can afford to lose their WR1-2 and not miss a beat? Quote
SoonerBillsFan Posted January 4 Posted January 4 On 12/5/2023 at 10:27 PM, DrDawkinstein said: Greg Tompsett is making the podcast rounds in the bye week this week and talking cap. Gave a pretty detailed plan on Cover1 and showed how the Bills could get themselves to about $72M UNDER the cap. Or $56M under without anything too crazy. Worth watching, or at least clicking around through, for anyone concerned with our cap situation next year. He was also on Locked On Bills to discuss our Free Agents and re-signing options As a little preview, the detailed plan to get to $72M... No Brainers - Cap Saved Restructure Josh - $23M Restructure Diggs - $13M Restructure Ed - $3M Release Hines - $5M Release Harty - $4M Total - $48M Being $29M OVER cap right now, these moves alone put us $19M UNDER. Tompsett's Preferred/Likely Moves - Cap Savings Extend Dawkins - $7M Extend Douglas - $6M Extend Johnson - $5M Release Siran Neal - $3M Release Sam Martin - $1M Restructure McGovern - $3M With these moves added to the above, the Bills would be $44M UNDER Painful but Possible - Cap Savings Release Poyer - $5.5M Release Tre - $6M Bills now $56M UNDER Prefer Not - Cap Savings Restructure Milano - $2.5M Restructure Knox - $6M Trade Elam - $165k Release Bates - $1.5M Release Morse - $5.5M Bills now $72M UNDER I type all that to once again reiterate, the cap is a myth. Sorry aren't we 41 mill over right now,not 29 mill? 1 Quote
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