DrDawkinstein Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 Greg Tompsett is making the podcast rounds in the bye week this week and talking cap. Gave a pretty detailed plan on Cover1 and showed how the Bills could get themselves to about $72M UNDER the cap. Or $56M under without anything too crazy. Worth watching, or at least clicking around through, for anyone concerned with our cap situation next year. He was also on Locked On Bills to discuss our Free Agents and re-signing options As a little preview, the detailed plan to get to $72M... No Brainers - Cap Saved Restructure Josh - $23M Restructure Diggs - $13M Restructure Ed - $3M Release Hines - $5M Release Harty - $4M Total - $48M Being $29M OVER cap right now, these moves alone put us $19M UNDER. Tompsett's Preferred/Likely Moves - Cap Savings Extend Dawkins - $7M Extend Douglas - $6M Extend Johnson - $5M Release Siran Neal - $3M Release Sam Martin - $1M Restructure McGovern - $3M With these moves added to the above, the Bills would be $44M UNDER Painful but Possible - Cap Savings Release Poyer - $5.5M Release Tre - $6M Bills now $56M UNDER Prefer Not - Cap Savings Restructure Milano - $2.5M Restructure Knox - $6M Trade Elam - $165k Release Bates - $1.5M Release Morse - $5.5M Bills now $72M UNDER I type all that to once again reiterate, the cap is a myth. 7 1 1 2 2 5 23 Quote
Beck Water Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said: Greg Tompsett is making the podcast rounds in the bye week this week and talking cap. Gave a pretty detailed plan on Cover1 and showed how the Bills could get themselves to about $72M UNDER the cap. Or $56M under without anything too crazy. Worth watching, or at least clicking around through, for anyone concerned with our cap situation next year. He was also on Locked On Bills to discuss our Free Agents and re-signing options As a little preview, the detailed plan to get to $72M... No Brainers - Cap Saved Restructure Josh - $23M Restructure Diggs - $13M Restructure Ed - $3M Release Hines - $5M Release Harty - $4M Total - $48M Being $29M OVER cap right now, these moves alone put us $19M UNDER. Tompsett's Preferred/Likely Moves - Cap Savings Extend Dawkins - $7M Extend Douglas - $6M Extend Johnson - $5M Release Siran Neal - $3M Release Sam Martin - $1M Restructure McGovern - $3M With these moves added to the above, the Bills would be $44M UNDER Painful but Possible - Cap Savings Release Poyer - $5.5M Release Tre - $6M Bills now $56M UNDER Prefer Not - Cap Savings Restructure Milano - $2.5M Restructure Knox - $6M Trade Elam - $165k Release Bates - $1.5M Release Morse - $5.5M Bills now $72M UNDER I type all that to once again reiterate, the cap is a myth. I dunno if the cap is a myth or the cap isn't a myth, but the Bills have said they want Hines to play for them next season. Hines has said he expects to play for the Bills next season. Hines didn't fight losing his salary of $2.5M and the Bills didn't try to recover his $500k signing bonus......Hines is getting basically, maximum PS money this season ($940k) I don't think it takes a dot-connecting genius to infer that Beane promised Hines he would be on the team next season in exchange for getting the cap relief with no negative PR/grievance filed this season. I think there's a bunch of other moves on Tompsett's list the Bills won't make, but the essential point is correct, there are moves to be made. 5 4 Quote
DrDawkinstein Posted December 6, 2023 Author Posted December 6, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Beck Water said: I dunno if the cap is a myth or the cap isn't a myth, but the Bills have said they want Hines to play for them next season. Hines has said he expects to play for the Bills next season. Hines didn't fight losing his salary of $2.5M and the Bills didn't try to recover his $500k signing bonus......Hines is getting basically, maximum PS money this season ($940k) I don't think it takes a dot-connecting genius to infer that Beane promised Hines he would be on the team next season in exchange for getting the cap relief with no negative PR/grievance filed this season. I think there's a bunch of other moves on Tompsett's list the Bills won't make, but the essential point is correct, there are moves to be made. Yeah, I saw it more as a menu to pick through to get us to about $50M under. Mix and match as you like! But the Hines situation could also be benefiting Hines and what a more thorough investigation following a grievance might reveal. Edited December 6, 2023 by DrDawkinstein 1 Quote
Rubes Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 Holy moly, I hope that's all correct. That makes me feel a bit better about next year, but we'll see. 2 Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 (edited) Not sure I would restructure Diggs. Rather trade him when the opportunity presents itself. Release Morse, get younger at the position. Edited December 6, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede 2 13 2 1 2 Quote
Aussie Joe Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 I’m leaning they will keep Poyer one more year … 2 1 Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said: I’m leaning they will keep Poyer one more year … I forget Hyde is a UFA. They probably keep Poyer and draft Hydes replacement. I would rather keep Hyde and draft Poyer’s replacement. Edited December 6, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede 1 Quote
Governor Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 That’s just enough money to sign the board favorite Jadeveon Clowney. 1 1 Quote
DrDawkinstein Posted December 6, 2023 Author Posted December 6, 2023 23 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: I’m leaning they will keep Poyer one more year … Not worth it imo. Both moves Tompsett has labeled "Painful but Possible" I've thought of as "Must Do" for weeks now. Especially if we are able to extend Douglas. 3 Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 (edited) So many fans don’t understand age catches up quickly. If you restructure Diggs you’re locked in until age 33+. Not many WRs produce at that age. Either keep him on his current structure for a year so he can groom his replacement we draft this year or move on completely in the offseason. Restructing 30+ year old non qbs is bad for business. Edited December 6, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede 5 9 1 Quote
TampaBillsJunkie Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 Thanks for posting. A good topic to dive into. We are not in cap hell, but certainly not as flexible as we would like. The DL is going to be an issue and we need to spend some money there. It will be an interesting off-season if we don't make a serious playoff run. I like most of the moves they discussed, but we do need to find ourselves a reliable #2 WR. I just hope we pull this season together and finish strong. It's been so disappointing so far. 1 Quote
Aussie Joe Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 19 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: Not worth it imo. Both moves Tompsett has labeled "Painful but Possible" I've thought of as "Must Do" for weeks now. Especially if we are able to extend Douglas. I’m predicting what I think happens rather than “what I would do” …I wouldn’t have even brought Poyer back this year personally… they probably move on from Tre and let Hyde go .. Rapp has been a disappointment and is probably not resigned..and whilst Damar might be kept next year for the last year of his rookie deal (cheap) … he is a break glass in emergency type only.. They probably keep Poyer one more year to mentor through the replacements …whilst they draft and sign a safety in FA… 2 Quote
Scott7975 Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: Greg Tompsett is making the podcast rounds in the bye week this week and talking cap. Gave a pretty detailed plan on Cover1 and showed how the Bills could get themselves to about $72M UNDER the cap. Or $56M under without anything too crazy. Worth watching, or at least clicking around through, for anyone concerned with our cap situation next year. He was also on Locked On Bills to discuss our Free Agents and re-signing options As a little preview, the detailed plan to get to $72M... No Brainers - Cap Saved Restructure Josh - $23M Restructure Diggs - $13M Restructure Ed - $3M Release Hines - $5M Release Harty - $4M Total - $48M Being $29M OVER cap right now, these moves alone put us $19M UNDER. Tompsett's Preferred/Likely Moves - Cap Savings Extend Dawkins - $7M Extend Douglas - $6M Extend Johnson - $5M Release Siran Neal - $3M Release Sam Martin - $1M Restructure McGovern - $3M With these moves added to the above, the Bills would be $44M UNDER Painful but Possible - Cap Savings Release Poyer - $5.5M Release Tre - $6M Bills now $56M UNDER Prefer Not - Cap Savings Restructure Milano - $2.5M Restructure Knox - $6M Trade Elam - $165k Release Bates - $1.5M Release Morse - $5.5M Bills now $72M UNDER I type all that to once again reiterate, the cap is a myth. I never worried about the Bills cap space. Getting cap space isn’t a problem. The problem is it’s kicking the can down the road. Have to pay the piper eventually and that likely causes at least one down year. That really isn’t much a problem either if you win one before that happens. If the can is just kicked to a new staff it sucks though. the cap isn’t a myth though. People that think that only think of the now and don’t care about the tomorrow. Edited December 6, 2023 by Scott7975 1 2 Quote
Doc Brown Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 I suggest the Cover 1 podcast if you really want to get in the weeds. To be fair, Greg did say that we're pry going to have to keep Josh's contract structure in place and take their medicine in either this year or next year. He guessed 2025. He's more bullish on Diggs skills not declining over the next two seasons than I am. 2 Quote
Doc Brown Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Scott7975 said: I never worried about the Bills cap space. Getting cap space isn’t a problem. The problem is it’s kicking the can down the road. Have to pay the piper eventually and that likely causes at least one down year. That really isn’t much a problem either if you win one before that happens. If the can is just kicked to a new staff it sucks though. the cap isn’t a myth though. People that think that only think of the now and don’t care about the tomorrow. Agreed. Just look at the top ten teams with the most dead cap money this year. The Bucs, Rams, and Packers went all in while the rest o the teams are either dysfunctional and/or signed some awful contracts (the Cardinals alone are eating 5.9 million in dead cap for their Jordan Phillips deal which is hilarious). Only two (Eagles and Texans) are above .500. How the Eagles have such a good roster still is a testament to Roseman. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $75.32MM Los Angeles Rams: $74.23MM Green Bay Packers: $57.14MM Philadelphia Eagles: $54.73MM Carolina Panthers: $51.54MM Arizona Cardinals: $36.96MM Tennessee Titans: $36.56MM Minnesota Vikings: $35.54MM Houston Texans: $31.72MM Las Vegas Raiders: $29.95MM Edited December 6, 2023 by Doc Brown 1 Quote
davefan66 Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 I get the cap concern. But if the Bills want to pony up the bucks, it isn’t as bad as it looks. Certainly the team wants to stay relevant, especially with the new stadium season tix (PSL’s) looming. One thing to remember is cutting players isn’t a zero sum game. Gotta fill that position with another warm body. And to stay relevant, those warm bodies need to be good players who may not come cheap. Filling the roster via the draft is a good way to manage the cap with cost effective rookie contracts. But impossible to know if those rookies will make meaningful impact. Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 25 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: I suggest the Cover 1 podcast if you really want to get in the weeds. To be fair, Greg did say that we're pry going to have to keep Josh's contract structure in place and take their medicine in either this year or next year. He guessed 2025. He's more bullish on Diggs skills not declining over the next two seasons than I am. Josh will get an extension in the next 2 years so it doesn’t matter. Quote
GunnerBill Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: Greg Tompsett is making the podcast rounds in the bye week this week and talking cap. Gave a pretty detailed plan on Cover1 and showed how the Bills could get themselves to about $72M UNDER the cap. Or $56M under without anything too crazy. Worth watching, or at least clicking around through, for anyone concerned with our cap situation next year. He was also on Locked On Bills to discuss our Free Agents and re-signing options As a little preview, the detailed plan to get to $72M... No Brainers - Cap Saved Restructure Josh - $23M Restructure Diggs - $13M Restructure Ed - $3M Release Hines - $5M Release Harty - $4M Total - $48M Being $29M OVER cap right now, these moves alone put us $19M UNDER. Tompsett's Preferred/Likely Moves - Cap Savings Extend Dawkins - $7M Extend Douglas - $6M Extend Johnson - $5M Release Siran Neal - $3M Release Sam Martin - $1M Restructure McGovern - $3M With these moves added to the above, the Bills would be $44M UNDER Painful but Possible - Cap Savings Release Poyer - $5.5M Release Tre - $6M Bills now $56M UNDER Prefer Not - Cap Savings Restructure Milano - $2.5M Restructure Knox - $6M Trade Elam - $165k Release Bates - $1.5M Release Morse - $5.5M Bills now $72M UNDER I type all that to once again reiterate, the cap is a myth. Agree with all the no brainers. They are easy decisions. On the preferred moves: Extend Douglas? Maybe wait until he has played even halfway decent against someone that isn't the Jets? I also wouldn't cut Neal and I'd be surprised if they do. So that means I'm $35m under by that point. I definitely release Poyer, sad as that makes me. I try and get Tre to take a paycut but if not I regrettably release him too. That gets me to $47m under. I don't want to press the restructure button on Knox and I wouldn't release Bates - he is my placeholder to replace Morse at centre. So I think I get to $55m under with those moves. They need c.$10m for their draft picks, they need c.$4-5m for their contingency pool. Then they have about $40m to find some safeties and some DLinemen (on the basis I still think the draft is where you find WR2). 2 hours ago, Scott7975 said: the cap isn’t a myth though. People that think that only think of the now and don’t care about the tomorrow. It's not a myth. But it is just accounting. You can spend what you want. You just have to be able to account for it all creatively. Now there are limits to what even the best accountant can do before the flexibility runs out, but the Bills are not close to that point yet. 1 3 Quote
Scott7975 Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Agree with all the no brainers. They are easy decisions. On the preferred moves: Extend Douglas? Maybe wait until he has played even halfway decent against someone that isn't the Jets? I also wouldn't cut Neal and I'd be surprised if they do. So that means I'm $35m under by that point. I definitely release Poyer, sad as that makes me. I try and get Tre to take a paycut but if not I regrettably release him too. That gets me to $47m under. I don't want to press the restructure button on Knox and I wouldn't release Bates - he is my placeholder to replace Morse at centre. So I think I get to $55m under with those moves. They need c.$10m for their draft picks, they need c.$4-5m for their contingency pool. Then they have about $40m to find some safeties and some DLinemen (on the basis I still think the draft is where you find WR2). It's not a myth. But it is just accounting. You can spend what you want. You just have to be able to account for it all creatively. Now there are limits to what even the best accountant can do before the flexibility runs out, but the Bills are not close to that point yet. Yes, it is just accounting. Eventually they will have to account for every penny though haha 1 1 Quote
Mango Posted December 6, 2023 Posted December 6, 2023 6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: Greg Tompsett is making the podcast rounds in the bye week this week and talking cap. Gave a pretty detailed plan on Cover1 and showed how the Bills could get themselves to about $72M UNDER the cap. Or $56M under without anything too crazy. Worth watching, or at least clicking around through, for anyone concerned with our cap situation next year. He was also on Locked On Bills to discuss our Free Agents and re-signing options As a little preview, the detailed plan to get to $72M... No Brainers - Cap Saved Restructure Josh - $23M Restructure Diggs - $13M Restructure Ed - $3M Release Hines - $5M Release Harty - $4M Total - $48M Being $29M OVER cap right now, these moves alone put us $19M UNDER. Tompsett's Preferred/Likely Moves - Cap Savings Extend Dawkins - $7M Extend Douglas - $6M Extend Johnson - $5M Release Siran Neal - $3M Release Sam Martin - $1M Restructure McGovern - $3M With these moves added to the above, the Bills would be $44M UNDER Painful but Possible - Cap Savings Release Poyer - $5.5M Release Tre - $6M Bills now $56M UNDER Prefer Not - Cap Savings Restructure Milano - $2.5M Restructure Knox - $6M Trade Elam - $165k Release Bates - $1.5M Release Morse - $5.5M Bills now $72M UNDER I type all that to once again reiterate, the cap is a myth. Restructuring Diggs is a really bad idea. What are we gonna do, pay him $40M at 34 years old? That’s bonkers. I also don’t love restructuring Allen again right now. He’s $48M against the cap for 2024. I’d actually extend him out 2-3 years before I restructure. Neither of those restructures are no brainers by any means. The Bills need to start shuffling out the old guard over the next year or two. You don’t do that by kicking the can down the road with bad restructures. 6 minutes ago, Scott7975 said: Yes, it is just accounting. Eventually they will have to account for every penny though haha The cap isn’t real…until it is. Having an owner with deep pockets is an advantage. But the bill always comes do. 2 Quote
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