Calling it now: Bills are going to at least reach the AFCCG

[balln]

1 minute ago, Chicken Boo said:

One thing I do believe is that we're going to see an MVP level Josh for the remainder of the season.  

Didn’t see it last week. Has to win that game in OT

[Freddie's Dead]

I like your thinking Dawg, but McDummy will find a way to choke away at least one of those games.  We won't get in at 10-7, since we lose nearly every tie breaker.  I'll be happy to be wrong, but I don't think I am. 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Bills are going to make the playoffs, and I actually believe like I did in 2021 when we were 6 games out that we are going to probably win out.  I know this will be split between the over optimistic crowd and the overly negative crowd, but I am not saying this to just say it.  In 2021 I thought the Bills figured something out in the 2nd half of the Bucs game and I started a thread saying we would win out and they did.  

 

This year, not saying it out of blind homerism, but I really do think this team is about to finish the season strong and likely win out and make the playoffs because I am fully convinced that this offense under Brady is not just a 2 game fling and is going to continue down the stretch.  

 

Ive been watching a lot of content on the Dorsey offense vs the differences in the Brady led offense, and its remarkable Dorsey kept his job as long as he did.  This offense IMHO has turned a corner that will stay the rest of the season.  Its now coming off a bye week to get even more settled into what Brady wants to do and tweaks and wrinkles they want to install.  So lets look at what is in store and why I feel this team is about to cook the next 5 weeks and enter the playoffs as maybe the hottest team in the AFC:

 

KC - Coming off a loss and an offense with no identity anymore.  The personnel grouping there is shockingly bad and this offense can no longer keep up with high powered offenses.  The thing that has saved KC this year has been the much improved defense, but that defense just got cooked by GB and took some injuries in that game too.  I think the Bills coming in off a bye, KC in an offensive rut, Rasul and Linval now more comfortable in our defense, and this just feels like a game the Bills win and probably win decisively.  

 

DAL - They are the Dolphins of the NFC - They struggle against the better teams in the league while boosting stats on bad teams.  Their "DPOY" just got torched by Seattle along with their whole defense, and that offense in Seattle is mediocre at best.  Dak on the road in Buffalo is a recipe for a down game.  I think because of Buffalos 6-6 record and early season offensive struggles that people see this game as more dangerous than it really is.  I actually think we are going to beat the Cowboys handedly.  Wouldn't surprise me if it looks a lot like what the Niners did to Dallas.   

 

LAC - Allen and this offense will drop over 40 on that defense, especially without Bosa.  Herbert and that offense can score too, and this might be a high scoring game, but Staley and the LAC are the best in the NFL at losing games, so even if they put a lot of points up I still think the Bills win by 2 scores.  

 

NE - Its New England - we arent losing to them twice.  Bottom 3 team in the NFL right now without question.

 

MIAMI - With Trevors ankle injury, and KC losing to GB and probably losing to us this week, the #1 seed could very well be locked down for Miami by week 17 and they would rest their starters for all or part of the game.  Either way, I do not expect Miami to have much to play for and we probably don't see their starters for more than a half.  BUT even if they do need to win and play the whole game, we always cook the Fish, so a dub either way in my eyes.  The key to beating Miami is take away Tuas first read and don't give up the big play, something the Bills have excelled at during the Tua-Hill era.    

 

I see 5 games, and I see 5 wins.  Negative crowd is gonna flame away, just like they did in 2021.  But I really do think this team is about to cook these last 5 weeks and that momentum will carry over into the post season where I don't see too much of a threat standing in the way to reach the AFCCG for the Bills.

 

With the offense humming and the defense integrating so much needed veteran reinforcements in Rasul and Linval, I think we are poised to make a run here.  I think 5-0 is quite possible, but even 4-1 may get the job done of getting in.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nothing wrong with the occasional day drinking and dreaming. Cheers!    😋

 

 

I’m in the one game at a time mode. Just finish the season looking like we are capable of looking and pray for the best. Bring on the Good Bills. Much of this season I’ll hope to forget, but they can still beat anyone when they play as they are capable of playing. 

[Success]

5 minutes ago, balln said:

Didn’t see it last week. Has to win that game in OT

 

Team game.

 

JA played great & was the main reason we were in that game.

 

[mjt328]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

But we don't need all of them to lose

 

There are 6 other contenders besides us for the Wild Card slots.  Only three can make it into the playoffs. 

So if we finish 10-7, we need at least four of those six teams to end with records 9-8 or worse.

Two of them are currently 6-6.  The other four are currently 7-5.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

There are 6 other contenders besides us for the Wild Card slots.  Only three can make it into the playoffs. 

So if we finish 10-7, we need at least four of those six teams to end with records 9-8 or worse.

Two of them are currently 6-6.  The other four are currently 7-5.

 

I know, but I also believe we are going to win out

[brianthomas]

if this team were a playoff team, they would've had more of a pulse in the previous must win games that a playoff team should have.

This team has shown itself to be exactly as their record shows.

Can they win out & make the playoffs? Sure they can.

Should we believe that they will do this? Im in the show me camp. So far they've showed me theyre a 6-6 team.

If they win out, credit to them & they will have deserved it because they would have earned it.

Right now they've earned my doubt lol.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, brianthomas said:

if this team were a playoff team, they would've had more of a pulse in the previous must win games that a playoff team should have.

This team has shown itself to be exactly as their record shows.

Can they win out & make the playoffs? Sure they can.

Should we believe that they will do this? Im in the show me camp. So far they've showed me theyre a 6-6 team.

If they win out, credit to them & they will have deserved it because they would have earned it.

Right now they've earned my doubt lol.

 

Don't disagree with any of this, I am just in the belief they will beat the Chiefs coming off a bye this week, Dallas is not the tough opponent being made out to be, LAC and NE are lower level teams than us, and Miami is a team we have proven to beat and also has a good chance to be resting their starters week 17.  

 

So, I don't see our schedule as daunting as others do right now and believe that in all 5 games, the Bills are entering that game as the better team.  

[Heavy Kevi]

Love the optimism and I hope OP is right!

[njbuff]

Oh, the OP's original plan actually calls for the HC to coach smart in close games.

 

Do we think that McDermott grew a brain during the bye or something?

 

Unless the Bills beat everybody by 4 TD's every game, than McDermott Is a mute point. 😁

Edited December 5, 2023 by njbuff

[PonyBoy]

Alphadawg7 are you secretly a referee posting on this board? Hope so!

😀

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

37 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Would love you to be right.  But I just don't see the math working in our favor.

 

The Bills have two pathways to the playoffs:

1.  Run the table the rest of the way, and finish 11-6.

2.  Lose only one game the rest of the way, and hope they get help.

 

Option #1 requires us to defeat three teams who are possibly in the league's Top 5.  

Not just "hang with them" or "play them tough"... but actually walk away with the WIN.  Close, moral victories will not be enough.

 

Option #2 seems like a more realistic pathway on the Bills side.  I think they can finish 4-1.  

The hard part is getting the other AFC Wild Card contenders to 9-8.  There are six teams we need to worry about, and at least four of them need to drop below us in the standings.  From what I've read, the tie-breakers don't work in our favor.  So here is what we are looking at:

 

Cincinnati (2 more losses):  IND, MIN, PIT, KC, CLE

Denver (2 more losses):  LAC, DET, NE, LAC, LAV

Houston (3 more losses):  NYJ, TEN, CLE, TEN, IND

Indianapolis (3 more losses):  CIN, PIT, ATL, LAV, HOU

Cleveland (3 more losses):  JAX, CHI, HOU, NYJ, CIN

Pittsburgh (3 more losses):  NE, IND, CIN, SEA, BAL

 

 

Can probably throw jags in there.  They still have some weapons, but t-law missing some time and kirk done for the year is definitely going to make every game a bit more of a challenge for them the rest of the way.  

[SirAndrew]

1 hour ago, Buffalo619 said:

Collapsing is not playing well. We lost. Your definition of playing well is not good enough and not up to NFL standard. This isn’t pop Warner where you get a participation trophy. Lol

I agree, the Philly loss has become some type of participation trophy game. The offense has improved, but we lost due to the same meltdowns we’ve seen time after time. That’s not a winning formula going forward. I hope I’m wrong. 

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Buffalo619 said:

Is this a gut feeling or do you have info why they will suddenly start playing well? 
 

 

Winning out is possible, Its because every member of the team knows they have no other option/choice but to win out, if they want to succeed, and they all know how to do exactly that.

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Bills win this week and there is a good chance they are already back in being favored to make the playoffs.  Its not nearly as daunting the way your wrote it out.  I do not expect Miami to lose 2 of their next 4, Bills will get in on a wildcard.  

 

Week 14 - We have guaranteed help with Bengals vs Colts & Jags vs Browns playing each other this week.  Plus Broncos have to play Chargers this week and could lose that game.  

 

Week 15 -  More guaranteed help with Steelers and Colts facing each other.  Jaguars have to face Ravens, and if they don't have Trevor they will probably lose every game they don't have him as they are not that good of a team to win with CJ at QB.  Broncos play the Lions and Lions will be favored in that one. 

 

Week 16 more guaranteed help as Cin and Pit play each other and Cle plays Hou.

 

Week 17 no definite help, but some of those teams have tough matchups where they will be the underdog.

 

Week 18 - Browns vs Bengals and Hou vs Indy are more definite help and Steelers face Ravens.

 

So if the Bills win out, there are enough of those teams playing each other meaning for sure losses to teams around us, plus they also have some other tough games.  I

Winning all 5 vs KC, DAL, LAC, NE, MIA in itself is daunting. Then needing some games to go our way makes it extra daunting. I am not saying it cant or wont happen but there is a reason the Bills playoff chances are at 20%. HOU and CLE basically control their own destiny with easy schedules. HOU can win out but has wiggle room to lose game to IND or CLE. CLE can lose to HOU and just needs to beat CIN in its final game. PIT and IND will get a win vs each other and if that winner gets the 3 easy wins they are in. So we need teams to lose games they should win. It happens all the time so I am hopeful. A win this week wont change much, but a loss and we are done. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by ngbills

[balln]

27 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Team game.

 

JA played great & was the main reason we were in that game.

 

Hurts got it done . Allen didn’t. Can’t apologize or make excuses for Allen anymore 

[Success]

3 minutes ago, balln said:

Hurts got it done . Allen didn’t. Can’t apologize or make excuses for Allen anymore 

 

Team game.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

If Buffalo is able to get into the playoffs, they'll be the most dangerous team in there.  And that's even if the Bills sneak in going 4-1.

 

I can absolutely see the Bills winning out, but our schedule is just a lot tougher to end the season than it was in 2021.  However, this late bye week was a bit of a gift.  If Buffalo is able to win the next 2 games, Bills fans should rejoice.  If we win 1 of the next 2, but the loss is competitive and similar to something like the Eagles loss, Bills fans can still hope.  If we lose the next 2, it's draft talk time.

[NewEra]

I can see it happening. One week at a time. I’ve had a feeling that this season would consist of a euphoric moment we will always remember. What better than to win 5 in a row, ending with a win in Miami to clinch the playoffs?  I believe we’re a top 2 team (I think SF if the best) when we play to our potential.  

 

In each loss, we’ve had one blunder that, if we didn’t eff it up, likely would have won us the game.  Eliminate that play in the next 5.  We can do that.

[Dablitzkrieg]

I hope you're right