I hope that Beane stops listening to McDermott when drafting

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I imagine if we break down draft picks by point value it would show a similar story but if someone wants to do that work I'd be happy to be proven wrong

 

This seems to be the theme in here. Do your own work!

[JohnNord]

4 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Mcclappy needs 10 DL to rotate 

They’ve been rotating players on the DL a lot less this year.  Part of that is depth

[GoBills808]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

This seems to be the theme in here. Do your own work!

I'm just saying 4 defense first rounders to 2 on offense is not going to add up

[The Frankish Reich]

On 12/5/2023 at 10:00 AM, JohnNord said:

How do you know that it was McDermott who insisted on making these picks?  How do you know it wasn’t Beane who insisted on defense?

Right. We don't know.

Much more likely is that the official story is correct: McDermott and Beane operate in lockstep on a consensus basis. And there's a good argument that having both the GM and the HC pulling in the same direction, with the same ideas of how to build a consistent winner (I think that was the definition of "the process") is largely responsible for the continuing success of the Bills franchise since their arrival. 

 

[oldmanfan]

17 hours ago, DCofNC said:

I’m not the person claiming Williams is Milano’s replacement.  That’s a HUGE stretch. He’s shown little to nothing and Milano is great.   I like Williams and would love for him to develop into Milano, but at this point he’s just as likely to be pre-season cut next season as he is an all pro.

‘M not saying Williams can step in and play at Milano’s level.  I am saying he’ll be his backup and move in should Milano get hurt again.  And Bernard and to an extent Shakir should be enough for people to quit thinking a guy is trash after just their rookie year.

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

This seems to be the theme in here. Do your own work!

Does the fact that we spent the 2nd most in the NFL on defense this season sway your opinion at all

[MJS]

On 12/5/2023 at 11:29 AM, JackKemp said:

We have one of the best offenses in the league. Is that McDermott and Beane or by chance? I don’t buy that Josh is the only reason we have an offense by the way. 

And one of the best offensive lines this year.

[DrDawkinstein]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Does the fact that we spent the 2nd most in the NFL on defense this season sway your opinion at all

 

Meaningless stat factoid without providing any other context (or real numbers/stats). It's a relative statement. "2nd most". So what? That does not intrinsically state we are lopsided towards that side of the ball. Just that other teams havent spent as much.

 

Provide the context to other teams, or at least the context to our own Offense, and some detail.  Otherwise, there is no point being made here.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Meaningless stat factoid without providing any other context (or real numbers/stats). It's a relative statement. "2nd most". So what? That does not intrinsically state we are lopsided towards that side of the ball. Just that other teams havent spent as much.

 

Provide the context to other teams, or at least the context to our own Offense, and some detail.  Otherwise, there is no point being made here.

How is the actual figure, relative to the rest of the league, on what we spend on defense meaningless in the context of a discussion about whether defense is prioritized? 

 

We spend more, in draft capital and actual salary/cap dollars, on defense not just compared to offense but compared the league averages as well

 

And I think your cap figures for Allen/diggs are wrong too, their combined hit this year is about $32M 

[JohnNord]

33 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Right. We don't know.

Much more likely is that the official story is correct: McDermott and Beane operate in lockstep on a consensus basis. And there's a good argument that having both the GM and the HC pulling in the same direction, with the same ideas of how to build a consistent winner (I think that was the definition of "the process") is largely responsible for the continuing success of the Bills franchise since their arrival. 

 

Exactly… which is why I thought it was foolish to assign all the blame to McDermott when it more than likely should be shared equally

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

How is the actual figure, relative to the rest of the league, on what we spend on defense meaningless in the context of a discussion about whether defense is prioritized?

 

Because the point you are trying to prove is how much the Bills spend on Offense vs how much the Bills spend on Defense. Telling us where we rank against the rest of the league in Defensive spending doesnt tell us anything towards the main argument. A team could be FIRST in defensive spending and still spend more on offense.

 

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

We spend more, in draft capital and actual salary/cap dollars, on defense not just compared to offense but compared the league averages as well

 

You have yet to prove any of this. Not saying it isnt that way, but you havent shown it.

 

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

And I think your cap figures for Allen/diggs are wrong too, their combined hit this year is about $32M 

 

That's right, my bad. Looks like I had spotrac set to 2024. They're at about 15% of our cap.

 

Throw in the next biggest contract (Morse, offense) now you are at 20%.

 

Throw in the next biggest contract after that (Dawkins, offense), now you are at about 25%.

 

Then we finally start getting some Defensive contracts.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Because the point you are trying to prove is how much the Bills spend on Offense vs how much the Bills spend on Defense. Telling us where we rank against the rest of the league in Defensive spending doesnt tell us anything towards the main argument. A team could be FIRST in defensive spending and still spend more on offense.

 

 

You have yet to prove any of this. Not saying it isnt that way, but you havent shown it.

 

 

That's right, my bad. Looks like I had spotrac set to 2024. They're at about 15% of our cap.

 

Throw in the next biggest contract (Morse, offense) now you are at 20%.

 

Throw in the next biggest contract after that (Dawkins, offense), now you are at about 25%.

 

Then we finally start getting some Defensive contracts.

These are the figures I'm talking about, Bills spend at roughly league average on offense and a ton more on defense

 

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

[billsfan89]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Offense early should be the way to go from here on out

From 2021 to 2022 over investing on defense early in the draft was a valid criticism of the Bills drafting. But in 2023 they spent their first two picks on offense and produced two plug and play starters. 
 

I think from here on out they should be spending 2 out of the 3 top picks on offense. Sometimes you will have to spend an early pick on defense but the majority of the picks should be to put talent around Josh.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

These are the figures I'm talking about, Bills spend at roughly league average on offense and a ton more on defense

 

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

 

Hey some real info! Ok, lets take a look...

 

1. Bills spend a ton more on Defense than Offense

 We spent $111M on Defense and $91M on Offense. $10M difference doesnt seem that imbalanced given it that is 1 decent contract. Or splitting it to even both sides out would just mean 1 more $5M/yr player on Offense. Meh.

 

2. Bills spend a ton more on Defense than league average.

Bills spent $111M. League average is $84M. So we're on to something there. This year.

 

3. Bills Offense:Defense Spending Differential is out of line with the rest of the league, and/or hindering our team

 

Here are the teams with the lowest Offense:Defense spend (meaning the spend favors the Defense)

1. Panthers -$31M

2. Steelers -$25M

3. Bills -$11.5M

4. Packers -$11M

5. 49ers -$11M

6. Seahawks -$8.5M

7. Patriots -$6M

8. Dolphins -$6M

9. Chargers -$6M

10. Vikings -$4.4M

 

Here are the teams with the highest Offense:Defense spend (meaning the spend favors the Offense)

1. Lions +$50M

2. Raiders +$46M

3. Ravens +$42M

4. Browns +$41.5M

5. Rams +$34M

6. Chiefs +$31M

7. Broncos +$30M

8. Texans +$27M

9. Cardinals +$26M

10. Giants +$24M

 

My biggest takeaway: Lots of playoff teams in both groups and lots of stinkers in both groups.

 

The other thing I noticed is if you click around on the different years at the top of that overthecap page, teams jump around drastically year to year. So there really isn't a way to say "X team always spends too much on this side of the ball". Really seems like it comes down to specific contracts in each individual year.

 

If there's something else you want these numbers to say then my ears are open.

 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Hey some real info! Ok, lets take a look...

 

1. Bills spend a ton more on Defense than Offense

 We spent $111M on Defense and $91M on Offense. $10M difference doesnt seem that imbalanced given it that is 1 decent contract. Or splitting it to even both sides out would just mean 1 more $5M/yr player on Offense. Meh.

 

2. Bills spend a ton more on Defense than league average.

Bills spent $111M. League average is $84M. So we're on to something there. This year.

 

3. Bills Offense:Defense Spending Differential is out of line with the rest of the league, and/or hindering our team

 

Here are the teams with the lowest Offense:Defense spend (meaning the spend favors the Defense)

1. Panthers -$31M

2. Steelers -$25M

3. Bills -$11.5M

4. Packers -$11M

5. 49ers -$11M

6. Seahawks -$8.5M

7. Patriots -$6M

8. Dolphins -$6M

9. Chargers -$6M

10. Vikings -$4.4M

 

Here are the teams with the highest Offense:Defense spend (meaning the spend favors the Offense)

1. Lions +$50M

2. Raiders +$46M

3. Ravens +$42M

4. Browns +$41.5M

5. Rams +$34M

6. Chiefs +$31M

7. Broncos +$30M

8. Texans +$27M

9. Cardinals +$26M

10. Giants +$24M

 

My biggest takeaway: Lots of playoff teams in both groups and lots of stinkers in both groups.

 

The other thing I noticed is if you click around on the different years at the top of that overthecap page, teams jump around drastically year to year. So there really isn't a way to say "X team always spends too much on this side of the ball". Really seems like it comes down to specific contracts in each individual year.

 

If there's something else you want these numbers to say then my ears are open.

 

My thinking on this has been basically...of the first group (the high spenders on defense), only the Vikings have anything that could be considered a QB in the midterm of a big deal (Herbert's hasn't kicked in yet), the rest are all still on rookie deals. I think that's pretty relevant to consider. You can afford to spend big on defense while you figure out your QB situation, but once you've got the QB and his deal you want to start putting the resources toward supporting that investment. At least, that's what the numbers say to me. Obviously the Bills have taken a different approach.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

My thinking on this has been basically...of the first group (the high spenders on defense), only the Vikings have anything that could be considered a QB in the midterm of a big deal (Herbert's hasn't kicked in yet), the rest are all still on rookie deals. I think that's pretty relevant to consider. You can afford to spend big on defense while you figure out your QB situation, but once you've got the QB and his deal you want to start putting the resources toward supporting that investment. At least, that's what the numbers say to me. Obviously the Bills have taken a different approach.

 

Right. And this was the first year Josh's new contract was supposed to kick in (but the restructure kicked that can a bit). So with an $18M cap hit, we are in that same situation as everyone but the Vikings.

 

Now, that is all set to change next year (unless we restructure Josh again). Where in 2024 the Bills will are spending $155M on Offense and $120M on Defense, flipping our differential to a +$35M number.

[GoBills808]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right. And this was the first year Josh's new contract was supposed to kick in (but the restructure kicked that can a bit). So with an $18M cap hit, we are in that same situation as everyone but the Vikings.

 

Now, that is all set to change next year (unless we restructure Josh again). Where in 2024 the Bills will are spending $155M on Offense and $120M on Defense, flipping our differential to a +$35M number.

I imagine they are going to do a bunch of restructures on the offensive side of the ball, which will bring that figure down

 

Regardless, I don't see how the fact that we spend more on defense and less on offense is in question here...especially among teams who are considered contenders/have a franchise type QB contract on the books. Since 2020 we've spent the 6th most, 2nd most, 2nd most, and 2nd most on defense in the league respectively. There's no other team who comes close to the kind of consistent investment in defensive spending the Bills commit to over the last 3+seasons.

[Airseven]

On 12/5/2023 at 10:00 AM, JohnNord said:

I love how because McDermott is an unpopular figure around here, everything that’s gone wrong is his fault 🤣🤣😂

 

How do you know that it was McDermott who insisted on making these picks?  How do you know it wasn’t Beane who insisted on defense?

 

 

 

Indeed. McDermott is the scapegoat. It's a means for fans to protect Beane, Allen, etc. and maintain a glimmer of the hype. 

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I imagine they are going to do a bunch of restructures on the offensive side of the ball, which will bring that figure down

 

 

Like we did this year that pushed our Offensive spending so slightly under our Defensive spending?

[Peter]

I thought it was pretty clear that McClappy is an expert at the draft. He astutely traded the right to pick Mahomes so that we could draft a CB later in the first round. Brilliant move.🙄

 

McClappy should thank his lucky stars that Beane was able to engineer it so that the Bills could pick Josh and that Josh was available.