NFL Coaching Tenure Before Winning 1st Super Bowl

[Billsfan1972]

7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Edit: I NEED a head coach who can openly admit that Josh Allen is the best QB in the league (when effectively unleashed). McD's systematic, years-long campaign of shackling Allen (sideline tapping his temple after like every run that resulted in contact, or every public statement about "being smarter" or god knows what all behind the scenes) then sudden 2023 declaration that he longs to see "the old Josh Allen" again is simply TOO FUGGING HYPOCRITICAL to go unhated and unfired. 

That is 100% the issue. We have a head coach who refuses to acknowledge he has the best quarterback in the league and let him play. He shackles him and makes these type of comments to the Press, all to defend his defence.

 

He hasn't put the offence in a position to win most of the year.

 

When they need to stop it does not happen and then he goes around saying the offence is the one that needs more consistency.

 

 

[Billsflyer12]

8 hours ago, Wizard said:

Two general questions.

 

1. Is there any first time NFL head coach in history who went to their first SuperBowl after 7 seasons with their first team?

 

I know Cowher both won and lost with Pittsburg, but Cowher lost a SuperBowl within his first 4-5 years as a head coach and then won one.  McDermott is the longest current tenured coach along with Shanahan that has not won a title with their current team.

 

2. The posts about Harbaugh, Slownik, Johnson, or Bieniemy being Coach are interesting.

 

Serious Question: is there a coach out there who you really believe would be available, interested, and capable of taking the Bills to the SuperBowl in the next 3 years?

 

I ask because I don't see Reid or Tomlin coming here. Sean Payton is new in Denver and also no coach has won a title with two different teams, so McVay and Bellicheat would be out with that historical stat in mind.

 

Is there a veteran coach out there who would be an upgrade? Otherwise, its McDermott or the less proven.

 

Curious about insights.

 

John Madden is only coach to ever make his 1st Super Bowl appearance beyond season 7.  He did it in Season 8.

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Landry. He was in his 12th year coaching Dallas when he won his first SB. And Cowher as you said. Those are two terrific coaches, by the way.

 

Oh, and by the way, "I know Cowher both won and lost with Pittsburg, but [justification, excuse, justification, excuse] only shows how you want this argument to fall. You can always find a justification for excluding a guy if that's your previous prejudice. But doing so only shows what you want rather than having any real logical force. 

 

There are two: Landry and Cowher. 

 

More, the problem is that the question, when stated that way, automatically acts to exclude guys who proved very very capable of winning Super Bowls.

 

Tom Coughlin is a good example. Eight years of coaching at Jax and not winning one, though he had some great rosters. Without a year off, he went to the Giants and won one in his fourth year. Did he become a different coach? Nah. Things just came together for him. He was good enough to win in Jax but it's hard to get things to come together sometimes.

 

So, how many coaches were fired at some point because the team thought they'd never win a Super Bowl, but that turned out to be wrong? Several.

 

Belichick. George Allen. Vermeil. Pete Carroll. Dungy. Kubiak. Reid.

 

That's a squatload.

 

 

Tom Landry made his 1st NFL Championship Game appearance(pre Super Bowl) in Season 7.

 

Again, John Madden is only coach to ever make his 1st Super Bowl appearance beyond season 7.  He did it in Season 8

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

Not that I know of but I think it's a pretty useless stat.  Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't or won't.  Reid didn't win one in Philly. Does that mean he isn't a good enough coach to win one?  Obviously not.  

This point of past performance being predictive is a good one. 
 

there are several example in every direction, Bill B being another … 

[Billsflyer12]

This has been talked about ALOT on this board, so I thought I’ll just put data review out again for those wanting the data.

 

1). John Madden is the only coach of the 73 Super Bowl coaches in the history of the NFL to have gone longer than McD without making a Super Bowl appearance.  Madden did it in Season 8.  

 

2). Only 11 coaches won their 1st Super Bowl season 7 or later, only 3 (Tom Landry, John Madden, Bill Cowher) did so with their 1st team as Head Coach.  John Madden the only one of these 3 that didn’t at least have a Super Bowl appearance.

 

3). In fact of the 35 different Super Bowl winning head coaches, 29 of them won their 1st championship within the first 5 seasons.

 

4). No team has ever started the same QB under the same head coach for more than 5 years and seen that duo win its 1st championship together.

 

- These historical stats, along with the current trend the 10 coaches from last 5 Super Bowls of only 1 was defensive coach (Belichick last SB in 2018 season).

 

- As of today the coaches of the top 8 Super Bowl favorites are all offensive head coaches.

- As of today 8 of bottom 10 teams coached by defensive head coaches.

- As of today this season records of offensive head coaches is 114-88 (.564%), defensive head coaches is 58-90 (.391%)

 

 

[Gugny]

3 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

You honestly think McDermott has had an elite qb for 7 years?

I’m guessing that he’s back next year, which will be year 7. 
 

[Ray Stonada]

2 hours ago, BBFL said:

Regarding Coughlin and the NYG, wasn’t he apparently set to be fired after that season if he failed? He came out and said on that NFL Films program for the SB Giants that he was on his way out and thought “f—- it, my style of hard nosed coaching isn’t working. I need to be more compassionate and caring of these men..”

 

Would love it if McD stops for a minute and thinks, "F--- it, my style of playing off-coverage and being cautious late in games ain't working. I'm gonna play my regular D late in the fourth. Someone comes up with a long TD, hats off. Trust Josh to get it back!"

[TheyCallMeAndy]

9 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

And by non message board standards, the rest of the dummies will allow him an additional 10 years to "figure it out"....brilliant strategy...

Name one person, real life or MB, that is willing to give McD anything beyond 2024?

 

I haven’t seen anything. 

10 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I’m guessing that he’s back next year, which will be year 7. 
 

McD hasn’t had an elite QB, let alone elite roster, for 7 years. Tyrod, Rookie Josh, and Sophomore Josh were not Super Bowl level. Neither was the team.

 

It’s been 3.5 seasons. Does the next coach get 3.5 before everyone is demanding he’s fired? Just curious.

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

You honestly think McDermott has had an elite qb for 7 years?

 

This is his 4th season with one and we're regressing.  Lost the CCG in '20.  Had it won 'til he gave it away in '21.  Got our a$$e$ handed to us because he couldn't get his offense to put up more than 10 points at home in a cataclysmically embarassing divisional round loss.  

 

This season likely not even getting in, behind some incredibly mediocre teams. 

 

The real tragedy is that there isn't a dominant team in the AFC this season.  Not one.  

 

We cry about not having a #2 WR despite having Diggs and arguably the best up-and-coming receiving TE in the game.  But here are the receivers that the top contenders in the AFC have, and they're a whole lot more consistent and far better coached than we are, besides Miami which has the 22nd ranked defense: 

 

Baltimore:  Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews (TE) 

Jax:  Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley, two 1,000-seasons between them in 9 prior seasons. 

KC:  Travis Kelce and JAGs after that  

 

They're all 8-3 of 9-3 with the 8-3 teams all playing weaker teams that they should beat today, and, all having had tougher schedules than we've had with our list of bottom quartile offenses faced for two-thirds of our games.  

 

He has an elite QB this season, and this is the best that he can do.  

 

The narrative that has taken shape isn't going away, it's only going to get worse unless McDimwit takes us to a Super Bowl where he's entirely outwitted and out of his league as a HC.  Pegula can do what he wants and will, but at some point this is going to spill over to our ability to attract players.  But this notion that we're scared to hire someone else because they could be worse, while settling for the above should raise questions about those that take that stance.  

 

Poona Ford's already out there spilling the beans on the mythical "Process" and who can blame him.  Carroll wants him back.  

 

Pegula always seems to be a day late and a dollar short on things like this.  He puts his sentiments ahead of his business sense.  

 

We as fans don't deserve this.  

 

 

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

That is 100% the issue. We have a head coach who refuses to acknowledge he has the best quarterback in the league and let him play. He shackles him and makes these type of comments to the Press, all to defend his defence.

 

He hasn't put the offence in a position to win most of the year.

 

When they need to stop it does not happen and then he goes around saying the offence is the one that needs more consistency.

 

 

 

Shhh!

 

He's busy tinkering FFL style with his [recious defense, ... that folds come playoff time.  

 

DO NOT DISTURB!!! 

 

 

21 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Would love it if McD stops for a minute and thinks, "F--- it, my style of playing off-coverage and being cautious late in games ain't working. I'm gonna play my regular D late in the fourth. Someone comes up with a long TD, hats off. Trust Josh to get it back!"

 

Could be his mental accuity that is the issue there.  

 

Just sayin'. 

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, Since1981 said:

There is a huge difference between a SB HC and promoting OC to HC etc. I’m convinced that McD is a few football IQ speed points below what SB HC needs to be.
 

Proof of bad HC is Bills loss margin of error nearly always 1 score. That is on the HC.  

 

7 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

1. With a sample size this small, like 30-40 coaches who have won a Lombardi, I don't think stats about tenure mean much. Hasn't been done until someone does it.

 

2. This team only loses in very tight games. Bills need someone who has that knack to play chess and be a move ahead. They could be a dynasty. Any coach who has a strategic head on his shoulders during games would be an improvement.

We're guaranteed to never have a game day strategic advantage with McDermott.  That's proven & documented.  If the game is close We're sunk. Before we could at least blow out the bad teams. Now that's gone too.

[90sBills]

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Not that I know of but I think it's a pretty useless stat.  Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't or won't.  Reid didn't win one in Philly. Does that mean he isn't a good enough coach to win one?  Obviously not.  

It’s all about the QB. Reid got an elite QB and all of a sudden his narrative went from ‘can’t win the big one’ to ‘maybe best of all time’. 
 

If McD moves on and wins a superbowl with a different team while the Bills remains superbowl-less during Allen’s career then we’d know where the issue lies. If the Bills replace McD with a different coach that takes this team to a superbowl then it’d be clear where the problem was. Most, if not all, of us think it’s the latter scenario so let’s cut ties and move on. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

40 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Name one person, real life or MB, that is willing to give McD anything beyond 2024?

 

I haven’t seen anything. 

McD hasn’t had an elite QB, let alone elite roster, for 7 years. Tyrod, Rookie Josh, and Sophomore Josh were not Super Bowl level. Neither was the team.

 

It’s been 3.5 seasons. Does the next coach get 3.5 before everyone is demanding he’s fired? Just curious.

No. The next coach gets two years. You just don't seem to understand it is SB or bust every year now. 

 

[Billsfan1972]

McD always tells us he's the most prepared coach, they've practised all scenarios and it is not on him when it blows up in their face.  He said they practised last second FG team three times during the week before Denver, yet game day with the whole stadium knowing on second down, they weren't trying to score and using timeouts still blew it????!!!!!

 

13 seconds too.

 

I'll go back to the Tennessee game where Josh slipped and say, they knew they were going for it and should have lined up immediately and not let Tennessee get set.  If so prepared you don't run down the play clock.

 

So many examples and almost always failures.

[RyanC883]

9 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I agree Josh has maybe 6-7 seasons left. His first SB window has probably closed this year.  McDermott is imho a train wreck of in game coaching mistakes.  I'd love to see Ben Johnson offered the job.  And he can start doing what McDermott should've done 5 years ago. Commit fully to surrounding JA with a monster offense. I don't care about the defense anymore.  All they do is historically break our hearts anyway. 

 

yep.  And if we get stuck with McD, I hope Bean is smart enough to realize it does not matter what D McD has, he will ruin it, so might as well have an offense that scores so many points that the D will rarely need a last minute stop.  

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

It’s been 3.5 seasons. Does the next coach get 3.5 before everyone is demanding he’s fired? Just curious.

I’m sorry, but you’re wrong. 

[WotAGuy]

Didn’t @Einstein have a thread about this a few months ago?

[TheyCallMeAndy]

25 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I’m sorry, but you’re wrong. 

Josh Allen and this roster had been elite during 2018-2019 seasons? 

59 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

No. The next coach gets two years. You just don't seem to understand it is SB or bust every year now. 

 

Ugh, I need to be better 

 

 

😉

[stuvian]

Don Shula lost the NFL Championship in his second season as Baltimore's head coach. That's with Johnny U at QB.

 

He replaced Weeb Ewbank who went on to win SB 3 with Broadway Joe and the Jets. 

 

The Bills HC job will be considered one of the most sought after should it come open - a franchise QB, rabid fan base and good ownership. I am not convinced that McDermott is a dud and want to see the rest of the season play out with him. Only after that should we consider a move.

 

I am not convinced our next HC should be a former OC. Demeco Ryans is a former DC getting results with a young star QB.

 

Dan Quinn is going to get another HC job. He's got the pain of a SB loss as HC under his belt. He's ready yesterday. Dallas is a contender because of him. I think he's the most obvious choice but not the only one. 

[Einstein]

12 hours ago, Wizard said:

Two general questions.

 

1. Is there any first time NFL head coach in history who went to their first SuperBowl after 7 seasons with their first team?

 

I know Cowher both won and lost with Pittsburg, but Cowher lost a SuperBowl within his first 4-5 years as a head coach and then won one.  McDermott is the longest current tenured coach along with Shanahan that has not won a title with their current team.

 

2. The posts about Harbaugh, Slownik, Johnson, or Bieniemy being Coach are interesting.

 

Serious Question: is there a coach out there who you really believe would be available, interested, and capable of taking the Bills to the SuperBowl in the next 3 years?

 

I ask because I don't see Reid or Tomlin coming here. Sean Payton is new in Denver and also no coach has won a title with two different teams, so McVay and Bellicheat would be out with that historical stat in mind.

 

Is there a veteran coach out there who would be an upgrade? Otherwise, its McDermott or the less proven.

 

Curious about insights.

 

Here you go.

I did a breakdown of this going back 40 years.
 

 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

This point of past performance being predictive is a good one. 
 

there are several example in every direction, Bill B being another … 

 

I dont think in the case of "has a coach ever won a sb after 7 years" stuff is all that predictive, so I find the stat useless.  There are too many variables as to why that hasn't happened... yet.

[Boatdrinks]

So it has been done after season 7. Cool, but doesn’t mean much if anything.