NFL Coaching Tenure Before Winning 1st Super Bowl

[Wizard]

Two general questions.

 

1. Is there any first time NFL head coach in history who went to their first SuperBowl after 7 seasons with their first team?

 

I know Cowher both won and lost with Pittsburg, but Cowher lost a SuperBowl within his first 4-5 years as a head coach and then won one.  McDermott is the longest current tenured coach along with Shanahan that has not won a title with their current team.

 

2. The posts about Harbaugh, Slownik, Johnson, or Bieniemy being Coach are interesting.

 

Serious Question: is there a coach out there who you really believe would be available, interested, and capable of taking the Bills to the SuperBowl in the next 3 years?

 

I ask because I don't see Reid or Tomlin coming here. Sean Payton is new in Denver and also no coach has won a title with two different teams, so McVay and Bellicheat would be out with that historical stat in mind.

 

Is there a veteran coach out there who would be an upgrade? Otherwise, its McDermott or the less proven.

 

Curious about insights.

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Wizard

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Truth is it’s a crap shoot. There are a lot of TBD-born narratives about McD around here that a large chunk of the masses accept as factual, that actually have very little supportive data. 
 

As for future coaches, I doubt we pay JH the amount it would take to pry him away, and firing McD for an unproven, rookie OC is foolish. 
 

Ben Johnson is the only intriguing name out there but he is a little green still. 
 

McD has had elite QB play for 3.5 seasons, so yes he should have made a SB by now by the standards established on this message board. 
 

Question is, will we give the next guy 3 seasons as well? 

Edited December 3, 2023 by TheyCallMeAndy

[TheyCallMeAndy]

I will also make the bold claim that in 5 weeks time a large amount of this MB and Bills fans in general will want Joe Brady as the next HC. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by TheyCallMeAndy

[Gugny]

The real question is how long it takes a head coach to win a Super Bowl when he has an elite QB. 

 

Pick a modern day (last 20 years) elite QB and see how many seasons it took him to hoist a Lombardi. 
 

It’s fewer than 7 YEARS!  That’s for sure. 

[Richard Noggin]

26 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Truth is it’s a crap shoot. 

I doubt we pay JH the amount it would take to pry him away, and firing McD for an unproven, rookie OC is foolish. 
 

Ben Johnson is the only intriguing name out there. 
 

McD has had elite QB play for 3.5 seasons, so yes he should have made a SB by now by the standards established on this message board. 
 

Question is, will we give the next guy 3 seasons as well? 

 

I have tossed Ben Johnson's name out there a BUNCH this season. 

 

To be honest, right now, I'd be absolutely fine just canning McD and elevating Brady. Hopefully he'd be able to keep Washington and/or Babich (or find someone else from outside the org) on the defensive side moving forward. Gotta make a move to empower the offense/Allen and let someone other than McD run the defense. It projects that Allen has another 4-6 solid seasons left, and we need a young offensive coach to maximize those years. McD ain't it. 

 

Edit: I NEED a head coach who can openly admit that Josh Allen is the best QB in the league (when effectively unleashed). McD's systematic, years-long campaign of shackling Allen (sideline tapping his temple after like every run that resulted in contact, or every public statement about "being smarter" or god knows what all behind the scenes) then sudden 2023 declaration that he longs to see "the old Josh Allen" again is simply TOO FUGGING HYPOCRITICAL to go unhated and unfired. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Richard Noggin

[Doc Brown]

37 minutes ago, Wizard said:

1. Is there any first time NFL head coach in history who went to their first SuperBowl after 7 seasons with their first team?

Some guy named Vince Lombardi.

[PBF81]

10 hours ago, Wizard said:

Serious Question: is there a coach out there who you really believe would be available, interested, and capable of taking the Bills to the SuperBowl in the next 3 years?

 

Curious about insights.

 

 

Re: insights, we're looking at this from the wrong perspective.  

 

This team is already capable of going to the Super Bowl and winning it.  There isn't a dominant team in the AFC this year and we have as much if not more (with Allen) talent than any of them.  

 

We need a coach that doesn't prevent it with his idiotic defensive play-calling, horrid decision-making contrasted with his peers that he'd be coaching against in the playoffs and is otherwise out-coached there, and one that knows at least something significant about offense since Allen & the offense are the strength of this team, and one that isn't obsessed with having a top defense at the expense of the offense because that's what he knows best.

 

If you look at it that way, you'll find that the question you've asked is the wrong question.  

 

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by PBF81

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

55 minutes ago, Wizard said:

and also no coach has won a title with two different teams, so McVay and Bellicheat would be out with that historical stat in mind.

 

Not only that but over the last 20 years, if I am not mistaken, exactly three coaches have won multiple super bowls period. Belicheck, Reid and Couphlin. 
 

I keep thinking that maybe the Eagles are onto something with how fast they moved off of Pederson. 

[LABILLBACKER]

56 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Truth is it’s a crap shoot. There are a lot of TBD-born narratives about McD around here that a large chunk of the masses accept as factual, that actually have very little supportive data. 
 

As for future coaches, I doubt we pay JH the amount it would take to pry him away, and firing McD for an unproven, rookie OC is foolish. 
 

Ben Johnson is the only intriguing name out there but he is a little green still. 
 

McD has had elite QB play for 3.5 seasons, so yes he should have made a SB by now by the standards established on this message board. 
 

Question is, will we give the next guy 3 seasons as well? 

And by non message board standards, the rest of the dummies will allow him an additional 10 years to "figure it out"....brilliant strategy...

[LABILLBACKER]

32 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I have tossed Ben Johnson's name out there a BUNCH this season. 

 

To be honest, right now, I'd be absolutely fine just canning McD and elevating Brady. Hopefully he'd be able to keep Washington and/or Babich (or find someone else from outside the org) on the defensive side moving forward. Gotta make a move to empower the offense/Allen and let someone other than McD run the defense. It projects that Allen has another 4-6 solid seasons left, and we need a young offensive coach to maximize those years. McD ain't it. 

 

Edit: I NEED a head coach who can openly admit that Josh Allen is the best QB in the league (when effectively unleashed). McD's systematic, years-long campaign of shackling Allen (sideline tapping his temple after like every run that resulted in contact, or every public statement about "being smarter" or god knows what all behind the scenes) then sudden 2023 declaration that he longs to see "the old Josh Allen" again is simply TOO FUGGING HYPOCRITICAL to go unhated and unfired. 

I agree Josh has maybe 6-7 seasons left. His first SB window has probably closed this year.  McDermott is imho a train wreck of in game coaching mistakes.  I'd love to see Ben Johnson offered the job.  And he can start doing what McDermott should've done 5 years ago. Commit fully to surrounding JA with a monster offense. I don't care about the defense anymore.  All they do is historically break our hearts anyway. 

[Buffalo03]

McDermott won't get fired after this season anyway so it's a moot point

[Big Blitz]

 

[Ray Stonada]

1. With a sample size this small, like 30-40 coaches who have won a Lombardi, I don't think stats about tenure mean much. Hasn't been done until someone does it.

 

2. This team only loses in very tight games. Bills need someone who has that knack to play chess and be a move ahead. They could be a dynasty. Any coach who has a strategic head on his shoulders during games would be an improvement.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Ray Stonada

[Since1981]

There is a huge difference between a SB HC and promoting OC to HC etc. I’m convinced that McD is a few football IQ speed points below what SB HC needs to be.
 

Proof of bad HC is Bills loss margin of error nearly always 1 score. That is on the HC.  

[Chaos]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Some guy named Vince Lombardi.

Well Lombardi won the first Super Bowl. So your post is meaningless.  Lombardi won NFL championships prior 

[H2o]

Tony Dungy with the Colts comes to mind. He had Peyton Manning for his Colts tenure and it took 6 years for him to get it done. He also had some stacked teams in Tampa, but always came up short. Tampa ended up winning the SB the very next season after they replaced Dungy with Gruden. 

[Matt_In_NH]

6 hours ago, Gugny said:

The real question is how long it takes a head coach to win a Super Bowl when he has an elite QB. 

 

Pick a modern day (last 20 years) elite QB and see how many seasons it took him to hoist a Lombardi. 
 

It’s fewer than 7 YEARS!  That’s for sure. 

You honestly think McDermott has had an elite qb for 7 years?

[Scott7975]

Not that I know of but I think it's a pretty useless stat.  Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't or won't.  Reid didn't win one in Philly. Does that mean he isn't a good enough coach to win one?  Obviously not.  

Edited December 3, 2023 by Scott7975

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Wizard said:

Two general questions.

 

1. Is there any first time NFL head coach in history who went to their first SuperBowl after 7 seasons with their first team?

 

 

 

Landry. He was in his 12th year coaching Dallas when he won his first SB. And Cowher as you said. Those are two terrific coaches, by the way.

 

Oh, and by the way, "I know Cowher both won and lost with Pittsburg, but [justification, excuse, justification, excuse] only shows how you want this argument to fall. You can always find a justification for excluding a guy if that's your previous prejudice. But doing so only shows what you want rather than having any real logical force. 

 

There are two: Landry and Cowher. 

 

More, the problem is that the question, when stated that way, automatically acts to exclude guys who proved very very capable of winning Super Bowls.

 

Tom Coughlin is a good example. Eight years of coaching at Jax and not winning one, though he had some great rosters. Without a year off, he went to the Giants and won one in his fourth year. Did he become a different coach? Nah. Things just came together for him. He was good enough to win in Jax but it's hard to get things to come together sometimes.

 

So, how many coaches were fired at some point because the team thought they'd never win a Super Bowl, but that turned out to be wrong? Several.

 

Belichick. George Allen. Vermeil. Pete Carroll. Dungy. Kubiak. Reid.

 

That's a squatload.

 

 

[BBFL]

6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Some guy named Vince Lombardi.

“That’s just the trophy…”

 

😂

31 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Landry. He was in his 12th year coaching Dallas when he won his first SB. And Cowher as you said. Those are two terrific coaches, by the way.

 

Oh, and by the way, "I know Cowher both won and lost with Pittsburg, but [justification, excuse, justification, excuse] only shows how you want this argument to fall. You can always find a justification for excluding a guy if that's your previous prejudice. But doing so only shows what you want rather than having any real logical force. 

 

There are two: Landry and Cowher. 

 

More, the problem is that the question, when stated that way, automatically acts to exclude guys who proved very very capable of winning Super Bowls.

 

Tom Coughlin is a good example. Eight years of coaching at Jax and not winning one, though he had some great rosters. Without a year off, he went to the Giants and won one in his fourth year. Did he become a different coach? Nah. Things just came together for him. He was good enough to win in Jax but it's hard to get things to come together sometimes.

 

So, how many coaches were fired at some point because the team thought they'd never win a Super Bowl, but that turned out to be wrong? Several.

 

Belichick. George Allen. Vermeil. Pete Carroll. Dungy. Kubiak. Reid.

 

That's a squatload.

 

 

Regarding Coughlin and the NYG, wasn’t he apparently set to be fired after that season if he failed? He came out and said on that NFL Films program for the SB Giants that he was on his way out and thought “f—- it, my style of hard nosed coaching isn’t working. I need to be more compassionate and caring of these men..”