The bleak cap situation going forward

[SCBills]

6 minutes ago, Airseven said:

This regime is spinning in circles. 
 

They’ll get under the cap. The question is how many roster holes will be created, how much dead money will pile up, and how in the world they’ll be any better than this year. I’d prefer Beane/McDermott not make these decisions out of desperation.

I don’t know that it’s sustainable, aside from Beane absolutely crushing this draft, but every year we worry and every year we’re more talented on paper.  
 

And that’s why this year is so, so maddening … because this team is so much better than last years team.  
 

Josh Allen is likely the league MVP front runner if McDermott doesn’t spaz in the Eagles game and/or a FG kicker doesn’t smash a 59 yards in the rain. 
 

Our OL is a Top 5 unit.  THE best pass blocking line in the league and top 5 in run blocking. 
 

Our DL, even with the Jones injury, is a Top 5 pass rush DL.  
 

Diggs is having another great year.  Shakir has emerged as a legit slot option.   Davis is the same guy.  Kincaid is a future superstar.  
 

Yet, here we are at 6-6.   But what part of 6-6 do you put on Beane?   It seems to be entirely coaching, with Dorsey putting Allen & the Offense into a fog and McDermott being Captain anti-clutch. 
 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by SCBills

[McBean]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. 

We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover.



Getting under the cap

If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space.

Obviously this doesn't include restructures yet. But we can't just endlessly keep kicking the can down the road.

 

If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount:

Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative.
Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative.
Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative.
Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative.
Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative.

Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk 

Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason.
Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason.

Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason.

Summary

 

We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players.

We are likely going to have to restructure Allen, and then replace a lot of starters with very little money.

.

Thanks Sean.

[MJS]

They've been saying this since 2020. It'll be fine.

[RiotAct]

15 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I don’t know that it’s sustainable, aside from Beane absolutely crushing this draft, but every year we worry and every year we’re more talented on paper.  
 

And that’s why this year is so, so maddening … because this team is so much better than last years team.  
 

Josh Allen is likely the league MVP front runner if McDermott doesn’t spaz in the Eagles game and/or a FG kicker doesn’t smash a 59 yards in the rain. 
 

Our OL is a Top 5 unit.  THE best pass blocking line in the league and top 5 in run blocking. 
 

Our DL, even with the Jones injury, is a Top 5 pass rush DL.  
 

Diggs is having another great year.  Shakir has emerged as a legit slot option.   Davis is the same guy.  Kincaid is a future superstar.  
 

Yet, here we are at 6-6.   But what part of 6-6 do you put on Beane?   It seems to be entirely coaching, with Dorsey putting Allen & the Offense into a fog and McDermott being Captain anti-clutch. 
 

 

great post man… couldn’t have said it better myself.

[gonzo1105]

18 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Not even close.

If we maxed out Allen's base salary into a restructure, it would:
 

1) Only lower out cap hit to negative (-$20 million).

2) It would make Allen's cap hit over the next 3 years: $62M .. 2026: Original: $58M ... 2027: Original: $51M

 

Literally went to OTC....went to the 2024 and hit restructure and it took us down to -6 million. I'll trust them since you know thats what they do over you. 

[Bruffalo]

23 minutes ago, MJS said:

They've been saying this since 2020. It'll be fine.

 

 

GMs deal with this kind of stuff all the time.  The Bills will be okay. 

[Rigotz]

1 hour ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I got to 16.4 on spotrac doing this:

 

Restructure - Allen, Milano, Oliver, McGovern, Bates

Cut - Tre, Morse, Poyer, Hines, Harty, Neal

Left alone - Diggs, Von (for now), Knox, Johnson, Dawkins

 

Other possibilities

Cut Von post june - saves 6.79M in 2024, but theres 15.4 in dead money 2025

Extend Dawkins - Can likely lower the base salary number from 9.3M and give you flexibility to restructure down the line

Extend Taron - Reduce base salary from 6.45

Extend Douglas - Already 30 years old but even adding a year can get that 9M base salary lower

Restructure Diggs - Can get about 14M in cap space if you do this - but he's in age 31 and it basically locks him in through age 32 or 33 season

 

Yup. This is the one.

 

Any suggestion of cutting Dion Dawkins rather than simply restructuring elite players is ridiculous.

 

Right idea from @Einstein but wrong execution.

[gonzo1105]

First of all the big difference is OTC has the Bills projected at 29 million over and Spotrac has them 42 million over. Thats a wide gap, so clearly one of the websites is way off in their projections. I prefer OTC because I don't actually have to do the math it done for me. If OTC is correct, the Bills will have no problem getting under the salary cap before next year with 4 or 5 moves of guys that they could easily get rid of because their injured/old or both. 

[Einstein]

36 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

Literally went to OTC....went to the 2024 and hit restructure and it took us down to -6 million. I'll trust them since you know thats what they do over you. 

This is because OTC is using a wrong starting number ($29M) instead of the correct number ($42M). OTC's numbers are always shaky (Use Spotrac for official numbers).

It's just math.

Try again here: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2024/

 

 

For those who don't know, OTC is just ran by a fan. It used to be a Jets cap website. Spotrac is a partner of USA Today. 

[oldmanfan]

The NFL = Not For Long.  We’ve had some guys who’ve broken that rule to a degree, and their time will come to an end this off-season.  Poyer, Morse, Neal, maybe Tre, the sad news about Miller (sad in terms of the woman that was attacked) may take care of that on its own.  Davis probably won’t be resigned.  Epenesa may not either unless they decide to keep him vs. Floyd.  And younger guys will have to take their place and step up.  That’s the NFL.

 

And we see evidence of that with the Bills.  Jackson and Benford at CB.  Can Lewis is stepping up.  The Online is playing better for those of who who’ve bashed Brown.  Shakir is stepping up.  Rapp at S.  And so on.

 

Beane will have to draft well, free agency will have to be used carefully.  But that’s what he gets paid for.

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Not even close.

If we maxed out Allen's base salary into a restructure, it would:
 

1) Only lower out cap hit to negative (-$20 million).

2) It would make Allen's cap hit over the next 3 years: $62M .. 2026: Original: $58M ... 2027: Original: $51M

EDIT: We could also max out his roster bonus (to $0), which would bring the cap down another few million.

 

.

QBs will forever be restructured in the NFL now; there really isn’t anything else you can do when a player makes  1/5th of your cap otherwise. Mahomes does it every year and I’d assume Allen will as well and then eventually extend further to push money into a pit in the distant future. 
 

Teams always figure out ways to clean up their cap issues, the idea we are going take a step back for a year is completely absurd from both a competitive angle and a sales angle. As most NFL teams do, they’ll keep pushing money into the future until their team literally bottoms out and then they’ll eat it. Unless the NFL quietly eliminates some of a dead cap in the insuring years 

[Matt_In_NH]

3 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Poyer and Hyde, IMO, are done. They may have 1-2 solid years left but this secondary needs to get younger and more athletic. 
 

If we move on from McD (who just signed a 3-year extension in June) some familiar faces go as well. 

Yeah I did not mention Hyde because his contract is up.  We agree they need to reset at safety.

[Saint Doug]

I’m not at all worried about cutting some of our higher paid players, especially if they are over 30. We’re not getting results with them, so am sure cutting them wouldn’t automatically put us below 0.500. The roster needs to retool with hungry players wanting their next contract to be a big one, not ones who have already been paid. All I see is players going through the motions. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. 

We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover.



Getting under the cap

If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space.

Obviously this doesn't include restructures yet. But we can't just endlessly keep kicking the can down the road.

 

If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount:

Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative.
Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative.
Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative.
Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative.
Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative.

Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk 

Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason.
Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason.

Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason.

Summary

 

We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players.

We are likely going to have to restructure Allen, and then replace a lot of starters with very little money.

.

 

Bit late on this thread, boss.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Pine Barrens Mafia

[FilthyBeast]

It's a bit depressing thinking about the prospect that this team probably doesn't make the playoffs again until 2025 at the earliest, but obviously Beane will do a lot of work in the coming month to fix the pending salary cap nightmare.

 

But it goes without saying that this current group is going out with a whimper and this will be a much different and younger roster next year.

[Einstein]

22 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Bit late on this thread, boss.

 

 

ahh, you're right. I completely forget about that one. 

Well, mods can of course merge. My mistake.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Einstein said:

ahh, you're right. I completely forget about that one. 

Well, mods can of course merge. My mistake.

All good in the hood, just glad I ain't alone in this worry 

[Xwnyer]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. 

We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover.



Getting under the cap

If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space.

Obviously this doesn't include restructures yet. But we can't just endlessly keep kicking the can down the road.

 

If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount:

Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative.
Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative.
Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative.
Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative.
Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative.

Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk 

Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason.
Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason.

Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason.

Summary

 

We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players.

We are likely going to have to restructure Allen, and then replace a lot of starters with very little money.

.

Beane has managed the cap poorly 

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. 

We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover.



Getting under the cap

If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space.

Obviously this doesn't include restructures yet. But we can't just endlessly keep kicking the can down the road.

 

If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount:

Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative.
Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative.
Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative.
Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative.
Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative.

Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk 

Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason.
Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason.

Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason.

Summary

 

We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players.

We are likely going to have to restructure Allen, and then replace a lot of starters with very little money.

.

 

While the Bills aren’t flush with cap space to burn they aren’t in that bad of shape either. 2024 is easily put into order. I’d start with the following:

 

Restructure:

- Allen

- Diggs

- Oliver

 

Release:

- White (w/post 6/1 designation)

- Hardy

- Poyer

 

Per overthecap that would put the Bills $31.17M under the cap. That doesn’t include any rollover or additional moves. 

 

[boyst]

7 minutes ago, boyst said:

https://www.espn.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4744681/revisiting-details-of-hernandez-contract

 

 

Quote

For those asking what the salary cap charge would be in the event the Patriots ever decided to terminate the contract, the charge would be the acceleration of the $12.5 million signing bonus. If that happened in 2013, Hernandez would count $2.55 million against the salary cap, and then in 2014 would carry a cap charge of $7.5 million from the remaining proration on the signing bonus.

 

One other factor to consider: A club can recover bonus money and avoid a cap hit if a player violates one of the league's personal conduct policies or defaults on contract language.

So we could likely avoid the cap hit and avoid paying some money if this happens.