The bleak cap situation going forward

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Dawson Knox isn’t making what Kelsey makes 🤦🏻

 

13M AAV vs. 14.3M AAV.  Closer than you think - but kelce signed in 2020 vs. 2022.  

 

Cole Kmet is making 12.5 to knox's 13.  Njoku at 13.6.  Engram at 13.75.  

[ngbills]

10 minutes ago, Einstein said:

How do you restructure a player that has only 1 effective year left?

That would move his 2025 cap hit (final year) to $36 million, OR you spread that across the void years and we will end up having to pay for Von Miller for 3 years after he is gone/retired.

 

Either scenario is yuck.

I'd be shocked if they did this.

 

It just doesn't work this way.

Your plan of restructuring everyone would end in the teams cap space imploding the next 2 years.

Restructuring isn't free money. It just moves it prorated to the following years of the contract.

 

.

Thats the game you play. If you do it right you are matching years with high cap hits with guys coming off the books. 

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think it's fair to wonder if Beane and McDermott are retained for next year the pressure is cranked way up and we see more aggressive behavior concerning the cap and trades.

 

That's an interesting point.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

If you can bring back white at a reduced cost, with benford, and douglas.  CB is basically set, and thats not factoring in whatever you might have with Elam.  

 

Safety i expect them to do what they did with poyer and hyde - identify vets who aren't pro bowlers who will be scheme fits.  

 

My plan at CB would be this. Offer Tre a pay cut to stay. Why would he be open to that? A guy his age coming off 2 serious injuries isn't going to command much on the open market. May be worth it to him to stay. He would be CB2 with Rasul taking over CB1. I would definitely bring Dane Jackson back. He's not a super star but is experienced depth that knows the system. So boundary CB depth for me would look like this:

 

CB1: Douglas

CB2: White

CB3:Jackson/Day 2 rookie

 

Anything Elam can add would be gravy. Maybe it clicks for him being out and studying all this season. Stranger things can happen.

 

I then do what I think Beane's plan has been all along and slide Benford to Safety. I think he's a good CB, but would do even better back there.

 

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Agree and that's the way they have approached it in the past.

 

However, I think it's fair to wonder if Beane and McDermott are retained for next year the pressure is cranked way up and we see more aggressive behavior concerning the cap and trades. In short they may look at it as "We don't win this year we won't be here in 2 years to care about the cap". Maybe we see Beane go truly "all in" next year and take it to the LA Rams extreme. I know not likely, but it's gotta be something to consider at this point for them.

Yet another reason I’d tell Beane he’s safe, regardless of what they do with McDermott.  
 

I don’t want any short sighted decision making.  
 

And Beane has made some blunders, but he’s also looked MUCH better in his drafting recently .. and that’s going to

have to be our lifeblood moving forward.  
 

The only change he probably does need to make is that he likely needs to draft more for immediate impact than high ceiling development.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, BuffaloBillyG said:

My plan at CB would be this. Offer Tre a pay cut to stay. Why would he be open to that? A guy his age coming off 2 serious injuries isn't going to command much on the open market. May be worth it to him to stay. He would be CB2 with Rasul taking over CB1. I would definitely bring Dane Jackson back. He's not a super star but is experienced depth that knows the system. So boundary CB depth for me would look like this:

 

CB1: Douglas

CB2: White

CB3:Jackson/Day 2 rookie

 

Anything Elam can add would be gravy. Maybe it clicks for him being out and studying all this season. Stranger things can happen.

 

I then do what I think Beane's plan has been all along and slide Benford to Safety. I think he's a good CB, but would do even better back there.

 

 

I'm not worried too much about Jackson - him or another depth corner shouldn't cost a ton.  Once you get past the top 7 FA CB contracts in 2023, everyone made 4M AAV or less.  

[Niagara Dude]

25 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Poyer and Hyde, IMO, are done. They may have 1-2 solid years left but this secondary needs to get younger and more athletic. 
 

If we move on from McD (who just signed a 3-year extension in June) some familiar faces go as well. 

I agree and neither guy is capable of making the big play when you need it.  Time to get younger,  they could try either Elam or Benford and then sign a free agent/draft choice.  I think if the Bills allow McDermott one more season,  the condition would be that he hires a new DC that brings in a new scheme.  Way too many late game losses and not just this season.  That defence sucks and worthless when you go against top QB'S, both Poyer and Hyde made careers out of playing for McDermott and that conservative defence.

[Bray Wyatt]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

My plan at CB would be this. Offer Tre a pay cut to stay. Why would he be open to that? A guy his age coming off 2 serious injuries isn't going to command much on the open market. May be worth it to him to stay. He would be CB2 with Rasul taking over CB1. I would definitely bring Dane Jackson back. He's not a super star but is experienced depth that knows the system. So boundary CB depth for me would look like this:

 

CB1: Douglas

CB2: White

CB3:Jackson/Day 2 rookie

 

Anything Elam can add would be gravy. Maybe it clicks for him being out and studying all this season. Stranger things can happen.

 

I then do what I think Beane's plan has been all along and slide Benford to Safety. I think he's a good CB, but would do even better back there.

 

 

What about Benford?

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Just now, Niagara Dude said:

I agree and neither guy is capable of making the big play when you need it.  Time to get younger,  they could try either Elam or Benford and then sign a free agent/draft choice.  I think if the Bills allow McDermott one more season,  the condition would be that he hires a new DC that brings in a new scheme.  Way too many late game losses and not just this season.  That defence sucks and worthless when you go against top QB'S, both Poyer and Hyde made careers out of playing for McDermott and that conservative defence.

I actually really like Elam AND Benford at safety… FS and SS.

 

New coach may want new “types” though. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

Yet another reason I’d tell Beane he’s safe, regardless of what they do with McDermott.  
 

I don’t want any short sighted decision making.  
 

And Beane has made some blunders, but he’s also looked MUCH better in his drafting recently .. and that’s going to

have to be our lifeblood moving forward.  
 

The only change he probably does need to make is that he likely needs to draft more for immediate impact than high ceiling development.  

That's been one of my major complaints about his drafting. Seems like most of the guys he takes pan out right about late year 3/year 4 when they're due a new deal. Wastes so much time getting production from guys on cheap deals. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 minute ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

What about Benford?

Next years starting SS. 

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

That's been one of my major complaints about his drafting. Seems like most of the guys he takes pan out right about late year 3/year 4 when they're due a new deal. Wastes so much time getting production from guys on cheap deals. 

It's because he drafts guys with elite traits who sometimes lack college production/coaching. That way he gets draft value, but they take longer to develop. Teams like the Eagles draft guys from Alabama and Georgia who have played at the highest level and are ready for big games in their first season. 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Low Positive

[BuffaloBillyG]

Just now, Low Positive said:

It's because he drafts guys with elite traits who sometimes lack college production/coaching. That we he gets draft value, but they take longer to develop. Teams like the Eagles draft guys from Alabama and Georgia who have played at the highest level and are ready for big games in their first season. 

I mean, if you're drafting a guy that's ready to play day 1 of camp and get him for 4 years on a rookie deal VS waiting a couple of rounds to draft a guy that spend his entire rookie deal getting up to the speed of the guy from Alabama....who got the better value?

 

I don't think there's a right/wrong in that conversation by the way. Difference in prerogative for sure. But I know which I would want.

[CaptnCoke11]

Von and Knox will cost us 38 million next year 😂

[SCBills]

Welp.. if the contract language being reported on X and police report allegations are true.. we

may be out of cap hell far sooner than we expected…

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by SCBills

[gonzo1105]

Its not that bleak actually. Restructuring Allen will almost get us back to even on the cap. Release Poyer, Hines, Harty, Neal and Tre White post June 1st and we are at almost 22 million under the cap. None of these releases are even remotely far fetched. 

[Captain_Quint]

42 minutes ago, The 9 Isles said:

Well there is this :

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/von-miller-domestic-violence-allegation-jeopardizes-more-than-17-million-in-2024-guarantees

 

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. 

We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover.



Getting under the cap

If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space.

Obviously this doesn't include restructures yet. But we can't just endlessly keep kicking the can down the road.

 

If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount:

Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative.
Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative.
Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative.
Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative.
Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative.

Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk 

Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason.
Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason.

Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason.

Summary

 

We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players.

We are likely going to have to restructure Allen, and then replace a lot of starters with very little money.

.

It’s not a great situation but teams always figure this out through re-structures etc.  

 

It means that there won’t be any “big ticket” signings as Brandon Beane like to say, again.  But I would be shocked if the Bills release Dawkins or Johnson.  
 

I do think they are bracing for 2025 to be a bit of a cap reset year which is why they need to hit on some picks again this year.

[Airseven]

43 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

We have 4 defensive lineman signed for next year, and possibly only 2 starters depending on how Von Miller recovers from his injury. Miller, Oliver, Rousseau, and Jonathan.

 

We are very thin there, and will not have the cap to do much there. Could be our first round pick.

This regime is spinning in circles. 
 

They’ll get under the cap. The question is how many roster holes will be created, how much dead money will pile up, and how in the world they’ll be any better than this year. I’d prefer Beane/McDermott not make these decisions out of desperation.

[Buffalo03]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

This is where I’m at.  
 

Our cap situation isn’t great, but neither is the cap/financial situation for the Dolphins, Jets or Bengals.  
 

Chiefs got it right, but have a looming Chris Jones contract negotiation and Travis Kelce potential retirement down the line.  For a dominant 3 man run, that’s 2 of them.

 

Bills can bring back a Top 5 OL, Top 2 QB plus Diggs, Shakir, Cook, Kincaid & Knox. 
 

Do the right thing and draft Allen a RD1 WR in a Draft with 6-7 WR1 potential guys in it.  
 

Then start to rebuild the defensive secondary and defensive depth with the rest of the draft.  
 

Focus every financial effort this off-season to keeping this DL together and along with Milano coming back to pair with Bernard.. there’s the nucleus, along with Rasul Douglas outside, to carry that side of the ball. 

Make sure you tell Beane. He might be waiting for this information