The bleak cap situation going forward

[BuffaloBillyG]

7 minutes ago, Einstein said:

With what money though?

That's what i'm trying to figure out.

A Dawkins extension if done right would actually lower his cap hit next year. And again, restructuring is a thing. I believe $23M cap space can be gained just from Allen alone. 

[The 9 Isles]

Well there is this :

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/von-miller-domestic-violence-allegation-jeopardizes-more-than-17-million-in-2024-guarantees

[Kincaid Kool-Aid]

Fingers crossed that there's a financial out in Von's contract that can help us if things go off the rails with the recent domestic assault allegations...

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

We also don’t know what another restructure of Allen’s contract would do for the cap. 
 

Allen has a base salary next year of $23M. Say we move $20M of that to a signing bonus, saving $16M next year.

That reduces our -$42M to -$26M.

Keep in mind that restructuring simply kicks the can down the road. For example, restructuring this last offseason made Allen's 2025 cap hit $56 million.

This would put $20M more onto his cap hit for the final 3 years of his contract, making his cap numbers:

 

2025: Original: $56,556,281 + Additional $4,000,000 (prorated bonus) = New Cap Hit: $60,556,281

2026: Original: $52,256,281 + Additional $4,000,000 = New Cap Hit: $56,256,281

2027: Original: $45,284,000 + Additional $4,000,000 = New Cap Hit: $49,284,000

So that would make Allen's cap hit over the next 3 years, totals over $165.9 Million.

Something to keep in mind  (they cant keep doing this).

[TheyCallMeAndy]

2 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Yeah i got to 30.5 without touching miller or knox.  Knox isn't cuttable until 2024, and depending on results of all this stuff with Von who knows there.  I could see him getting cut with the hit splitting across 2024/2025.  

Or a restructure to bring Knox’s cap hit down. It isn’t has brutal as most think. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, The 9 Isles said:

Well there is this :

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/von-miller-domestic-violence-allegation-jeopardizes-more-than-17-million-in-2024-guarantees

 

Would certainly make releasing him more palatable - for both cap reasons and pegula's wallet.  

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

A Dawkins extension if done right would actually lower his cap hit next year. And again, restructuring is a thing. I believe $23M cap space can be gained just from Allen alone. 

Right, but say we reduce his cap hit from $16M to $4M (void years, signing bonus, yada yada), we are still $30M over the cap.

I guess what im trying to say is we need to make many more moves than that.

[May Day 10]

3 minutes ago, The 9 Isles said:

Well there is this :

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/von-miller-domestic-violence-allegation-jeopardizes-more-than-17-million-in-2024-guarantees

 

That sounds like it would save money for this year (next?) but isnt clear about the rest

[SCBills]

We also have contracts, like Knox, we can move off from/trade after next year.  
 

These next two years are tricky, but a lot of us were worried because we will most assuredly lose guys like Hyde & Poyer .. well, love them to death, but they aren’t that good anymore.   Even Taron Johnson, still very good, should be a conversation due to some aspects of his game being exposed this year.  
 

The fact is we have a Top 5 OL all under contract next year (if we keep Morse) plus the depth (Bates, Anderson, Van Demark).  Milano comes back next year.  Beane hitting on rookie contracts like Kincaid, Benford, Bernard, Torrence, now a guy like Shakir too … massive.  
 

He’ll need to do it again this year. 
 

At some point, we have to eat an Allen big cap hit year.   Chiefs did it when they went young on defense and won the Super Bowl.   
 

Im hesitant to keep tinkering with his contract. 
 

Id rather load him up with 1 or 2 WR’s in the Draft next year and just try to outscore people when added to the already talented offense coming back.    
 

Then prioritize the DL and let them pass rush with Milano/Bernard protecting a young secondary outside Douglas. 
 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by SCBills

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Or a restructure to bring Knox’s cap hit down. It isn’t has brutal as most think. 

 

Eh i didn't want to add more guaranteed money to him down the line.  His dead money number for 2025 is 7.8M vs. a 15.4M cap hit. 

 

You can also keep him for 2025 while you have kincaid on a rookie deal.  It's a lot for knox, but its not as bad when you average out the two tight ends.  

1 minute ago, May Day 10 said:

 

That sounds like it would save money for this year (next?) but isnt clear about the rest

 

All his bonuses wouldn't be touched.  Its the base salary that is currently guaranteed up to 10ish M, and then another portion triggers a few days into the new league year.  Any of his roster bonuses etc. would also be voided.  

[DapperCam]

30 minutes ago, Einstein said:

We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. 

We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover.



Getting under the cap

If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space.

 

If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount:

Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative.
Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative.
Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative.
Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative.
Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative.

Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk 

Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason.
Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason.

Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason.

Summary

 

We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players.

We are going to have to replace a lot of starters with very little money.

We have 4 defensive lineman signed for next year, and possibly only 2 starters depending on how Von Miller recovers from his injury. Miller, Oliver, Rousseau, and Jonathan.

 

We are very thin there, and will not have the cap to do much there. Could be our first round pick.

[K-9]

The NFL salary cap is nothing more than a mirage. 

[Einstein]

Just now, DapperCam said:

We have 4 defensive lineman signed for next year, and possibly only 2 starters depending on how Von Miller recovers from his injury. Miller, Oliver, Rousseau, and Jonathan.

 

We are very thin there, and will not have the cap to do much there. Could be our first round pick.

You're right. This could be a very defensive draft again. 

[Niagara Dude]

7 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Poyer and Hyde, IMO, are done. They may have 1-2 solid years left but this secondary needs to get younger and more athletic. 
 

If we move on from McD (who just signed a 3-year extension in June) some familiar faces go as well. 

The Bills should have started retooling/rebuilding after 13secs,  just like KC did.  There is no reason to keep extending Poyer/Hyde and the gross money were spending other role players.  What is more sickening is Beane giving Dawson Knox 14 million a season which is what Kelce makes.  Beane has made some stupid choices signing guys and just handing out money like candy

[Einstein]

25 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Miller Restrux -$13M

How do you restructure a player that has only 1 effective year left?

That would move his 2025 cap hit (final year) to $36 million, OR you spread that across the void years and we will end up having to pay for Von Miller for 3 years after he is gone/retired.

 

Either scenario is yuck.

I'd be shocked if they did this.

 

Quote

So before even cutting guys I got to over $20M in space. 

It just doesn't work this way.

Your plan of restructuring everyone would end in the teams cap space imploding the next 2 years.

Restructuring isn't free money. It just moves it prorated to the following years of the contract.

 

.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Einstein

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

We also have contracts, like Knox, we can move off from/trade after next year.  
 

These next two years are tricky, but a lot of us were worried because we will most assuredly lose guys like Hyde & Poyer .. well, love them to death, but they aren’t that good anymore.   Even Taron Johnson, still very good, should be a conversation due to some aspects of his game being exposed this year.  
 

The fact is we have a Top 5 OL all under contract next year (if we keep Morse) plus the depth (Bates, Anderson, Van Demark).  Milano comes back next year.  Beane hitting on rookie contracts like Kincaid, Benford, Bernard, Torrence, now a guy like Shakir too … massive.  
 

He’ll need to do it again this year. 

 

Lots of picks, lots of holes.  

 

If we go WR in the first, i'm not sure another offensive player gets drafted til round 5+.  

 

Need pass rushers, 3T, 1T players (these are usually found in that late 3rd/4th where we have 3 picks), probably a corner, and safeties. 

 

After they do their moves to get under and figure out the von situation - they should have space to make some moves.  Maybe bring back DQ and AJE. Id expect 2 free agent safeties (assuming mcdermott stays, which i think he will).  Quite a few pretty good safeties hitting UFA so if you do it right you can get a couple good players who need homes.  Pass rusher - same thing.  Allen, Burns and Young will be getting paid and there will be people without jobs who won't cost nearly as much.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Right, but say we reduce his cap hit from $16M to $4M (void years, signing bonus, yada yada), we are still $30M over the cap.

I guess what im trying to say is we need to make many more moves than that.

Agree, have to make a ton of moves. And a ton of moves can be made. I did a check through about a week ago and there is about $75M total that can be cleared in restructuring. Now, I am NOT advocating they should do all of them or implying that they will...just what's open and available.

 

Then as you touched with some likely cap cuts (Morse, Harty, Nyheim all jump off the page) as well as somebody like Tre that may be back under a slashed contract agreement...it's bleak but not as bleak as it seems.

 

However, the monkey wrench will be how much Miller is going to cost. Be it dead cap, accelerated cap cost or restructure (if cleared and retained).

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Agree, have to make a ton of moves. And a ton of moves can be made. I did a check through about a week ago and there is about $75M total that can be cleared in restructuring. Now, I am NOT advocating they should do all of them or implying that they will...just what's open and available.

 

Then as you touched with some likely cap cuts (Morse, Harty, Nyheim all jump off the page) as well as somebody like Tre that may be back under a slashed contract agreement...it's bleak but not as bleak as it seems.

 

However, the monkey wrench will be how much Miller is going to cost. Be it dead cap, accelerated cap cost or restructure (if cleared and retained).

 

If you can bring back white at a reduced cost, with benford, and douglas.  CB is basically set, and thats not factoring in whatever you might have with Elam.  

 

Safety i expect them to do what they did with poyer and hyde - identify vets who aren't pro bowlers who will be scheme fits.  

 

[SCBills]

6 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

We have 4 defensive lineman signed for next year, and possibly only 2 starters depending on how Von Miller recovers from his injury. Miller, Oliver, Rousseau, and Jonathan.

 

We are very thin there, and will not have the cap to do much there. Could be our first round pick.

I think the Bills can get something done with Jones and Epenesa.   Jones coming off an injury probably wont break the bank.   Can backload a 2 year deal with the idea that maybe we move Knox in ‘25. 
 

Epenesa is young so we can have flexibility with a 3-4 year deal.  
 

Floyd is the big one … and I’d try to backload a 2 year deal with him as well, probably with more void years.. again, with the knowledge that we can move off Knox’s contract to help offset the DL investment. 
 

I trust us to get young and draft some solid guys in the secondary (where they have a strong track record on Day 3) but not so much impact players on the DL … especially when our RD1 pick not being a WR would be managerial malpractice in this Draft. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

Yeah I was just explaining to nglbills how we can't just restructure everyone. You're right to point out that it wouldn't be a smart idea. It would just make the cap situation the next 2 years even worse.

Every dollar restructured still gets counted against the cap, including a portion of that the year you restructure. To quote Beane "you just kick the can down the road".

Agree and that's the way they have approached it in the past.

 

However, I think it's fair to wonder if Beane and McDermott are retained for next year the pressure is cranked way up and we see more aggressive behavior concerning the cap and trades. In short they may look at it as "We don't win this year we won't be here in 2 years to care about the cap". Maybe we see Beane go truly "all in" next year and take it to the LA Rams extreme. I know not likely, but it's gotta be something to consider at this point for them.