The bleak cap situation going forward

[Einstein]

We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. 

We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover.



Getting under the cap

If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space.

Obviously this doesn't include restructures yet. But we can't just endlessly keep kicking the can down the road.

 

If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount:

Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative.
Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative.
Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative.
Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative.
Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative.

Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk 

Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason.
Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason.

Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason.

Summary

 

We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players.

We are likely going to have to restructure Allen, and then replace a lot of starters with very little money.

.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Einstein

[SCBills]

First, we need to figure out what the actual projected over the cap number is…

13M is a big difference  

 

At 29M over, we can cut Poyer, White, Johnson, Harty and Morse and be pretty much under the cap without factoring any trades, extensions or restructures. 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by SCBills

[Einstein]

  

15 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Regardless.. we can enter next season with something like this offense:

 

Allen

Dawkins / Brown

McGovern / Morse / Torrence

Cook / Johnson

Kincaid / Knox

Diggs / Shakir / RD1 WR 

 

It looks like in your scenario, we keep Dawkins and Morse, and release Tre White, Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines.

That brings our cap space to negative $19M ($19,284,114).


 

15 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Epenesa 4 year deal (backloaded)

Floyd 2 year deal (w void years)

Jones 2 year deal (w void years)

This likely brings the cap to negative ($23M) or so, assuming $1M in signing year. 
 

15 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

RD2 DT

RD3 S

RD4 Slot Corner

 

RD5-7 DT, S, OL

Draft picks will cost a little under $6M. 

We are now at negative ($29M).
 

7 minutes ago, SCBills said:

First, we need to figure out what the actual projected over the cap number is…

13M is a big difference  

 

At 29M over, we can cut Poyer, White, Johnson, Harty and Morse and be pretty much under the cap without factoring any trades, extensions or restructures. 

 

Calculate for yourself...

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2024/

Edited November 30, 2023 by Einstein

[SCBills]

Just now, Process said:

Replacements for White and Morse are already on the roster. 

 

Re sign Floyd and Jones.

 

Go WR and S early in the draft.

 

Fill in the rest with cheap FAs. 

 

We won't have a single major need on offense next offseason outside of WR. 

 

We'll be fine. Coaching is the biggest obstacle going forward not cap space. 

This is where I’m at.  
 

Our cap situation isn’t great, but neither is the cap/financial situation for the Dolphins, Jets or Bengals.  
 

Chiefs got it right, but have a looming Chris Jones contract negotiation and Travis Kelce potential retirement down the line.  For a dominant 3 man run, that’s 2 of them.

 

Bills can bring back a Top 5 OL, Top 2 QB plus Diggs, Shakir, Cook, Kincaid & Knox. 
 

Do the right thing and draft Allen a RD1 WR in a Draft with 6-7 WR1 potential guys in it.  
 

Then start to rebuild the defensive secondary and defensive depth with the rest of the draft.  
 

Focus every financial effort this off-season to keeping this DL together and along with Milano coming back to pair with Bernard.. there’s the nucleus, along with Rasul Douglas outside, to carry that side of the ball. 

[May Day 10]

They need to have a terrific draft

[BuffaloBillyG]

There's still a ton of work to be done, for sure.

 

Lots that you or I aren't knowing what happens or what the plan is. Instead of a Dawkins cut, there may be a Dawkins extension. Instead of Tre being cut chances is he may end up back on a straight up pay cut like Mitch Morse did a couple years back.

 

And you haven't even factored in the restructuring of contracts that will surely come as well. 

 

And every calculation done now even factoring all possible things into it possibly becomes a moot point depending on what happens with Miller and his issues. 

[SCBills]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

  

 

It looks like in your scenario, we keep Dawkins and Morse, and release Tre White, Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines.

That brings our cap space to negative $19M ($19,284,114).


 

This likely brings the cap to negative ($23M) or so, assuming $1M in signing year. 
 

Draft picks will cost a little under $6M. 

We are now at negative ($29M).
 

Calculate for yourself...

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2024/

If we need to cut Morse, im perfectly fine with Bates taking over.   I’d love to keep him, but sometimes tough decisions have to be made.  
 

We will also likely have some restructures/extensions … likely Dawkins based on his play this year and Douglas, for the same reason .. along with his future potential at Safety. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

We also don’t know what another restructure of Allen’s contract would do for the cap. 
 

[dpberr]

For me, this is easier than it looks to start:

 

No 30+ year old players.  No exceptions.

No Tre White.

No long contracts to good but not great players.  

I try to ship Von Miller out of town (just because of his contract and lack of production, nothing to do with today's news)

I try to trade Knox for picks.  

 

Next year is Year #1 of the reload for Season #1 in the new stadium.  Likely not a playoff season, but need to free up cap to spend in 2025 and 2026 so that you have a peaking team for that inaugural season.  You do not want your rebuild/reload to occur that season.

 

Next year's remodel is why this all-in year is a crushing disappointment.    

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

  

 

It looks like in your scenario, we keep Dawkins and morse, and release Tre White, Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines.

That brings our cap space to negative $19M ($19,284,114).


 

This likely brings the cap to negative ($23M) or so, assuming $1M in signing year. 
 

Draft picks will cost a little under $6M. 

We are now at negative ($29M).
 

Calculate for yourself...

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2024/

 

I got to 16.4 on spotrac doing this:

 

Restructure - Allen, Milano, Oliver, McGovern, Bates

Cut - Tre, Morse, Poyer, Hines, Harty, Neal

Left alone - Diggs, Von (for now), Knox, Johnson, Dawkins

 

Other possibilities

Cut Von post june - saves 6.79M in 2024, but theres 15.4 in dead money 2025

Extend Dawkins - Can likely lower the base salary number from 9.3M and give you flexibility to restructure down the line

Extend Taron - Reduce base salary from 6.45

Extend Douglas - Already 30 years old but even adding a year can get that 9M base salary lower

Restructure Diggs - Can get about 14M in cap space if you do this - but he's in age 31 and it basically locks him in through age 32 or 33 season

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

With what money though?

That's what i'm trying to figure out.

I’m not trying to sound like a jerk or anything, but there are levers and buttons at Bean’s disposal that we don’t know about. 
 

There are also contract details we don’t know about. 
 

Things may not be as bleak as they appear. Teams know how to manipulate the cap. 

[ngbills]

Here you go. #'s are per Sportrac:

 

Allen Restrux - $18M

Diggs Restrux - $14M

Miller Restrux -$13M

 

That alone gets from negative cap space to $3M in space. 

Tre restrux or cutting him gets another $5-6M

Knox restrux gets $3M

Milano restrux gets $2.7M

A bunch of other restrux on guys like Bass, Bates, McG, etc can add up to another $5-10M. 

 

So before even cutting guys I got to over $20M in space. Now if you cut Harty and Hines that is another $10M. So with only losing Harty and Hines we have $30M in space. Cut deep and get rid of guys like Hyde, Power, Morse, Johnson then we could be north of $50M but better have some replacemnts.

 

Never as bad as it seems...

 

 

 

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

We have seen the saints recover from being 100 mill over.  It can be done.

[Matt_In_NH]

I think a cap reset of sorts is needed and the Bills need an infusion of young/cheap players.  I don't think Dawkins and Morse get cut.  I think Dawkins is an extension candidate and Morse could be as well.  White is an easy cut unless he is still injured, not sure how that will paly out.  I would also move on from Poyer Harty and Hines, they just need to cut bait with some of these guys.  Also, no way they cut Taron.  

 

Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, dpberr said:

For me, this is easier than it looks to start:

 

No 30+ year old players.  No exceptions.

No Tre White.

No long contracts to good but not great players.  

I try to ship Von Miller out of town (just because of his contract and lack of production, nothing to do with today's news)

I try to trade Knox for picks.  

 

Next year is Year #1 of the reload for Season #1 in the new stadium.  Likely not a playoff season, but need to free up cap to spend in 2025 and 2026 so that you have a peaking team for that inaugural season.  You do not want your rebuild/reload to occur that season.

 

Next year's remodel is why this all-in year is a crushing disappointment.    

 

 

Knox and Von aren’t being traded, and the Bills will NEVER punt on a prime Josh Allen year .. so that’s not happening. 
 

The Bills could position themselves to have the most talented offense in the league if they do what’s right by Allen in this elite WR draft.  They already have the QB, the OL, the RB, the WR and the TE, plus guys like Knox and Shakir. 
 

The defense is likely where we see massive changes, but will there be a drop off?   From what?  A defense that doesn’t show up against good teams or

in big moments?

 

Next year should be a Josh Allen MVP year on a loaded offense from top to bottom, with a defense that is strong up

front and at LB but can be leaky on the back end. 

[Matt_In_NH]

4 minutes ago, dpberr said:

No 30+ year old players.  No exceptions.

Later Diggs

[BB2004]

17 minutes ago, Einstein said:

We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. 

We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover.



Getting under the cap

If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space.

 

If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount:

Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative.
Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative.
Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative.
Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative.
Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative.

Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk 

Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason.
Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason.

Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason.

Summary

 

We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players.

We are going to have to replace a lot of starters with very little money.

Good post I think a lot of us want to know about this. Reading from the posters that are knowledgeable about this, seems like the cap hit for Von will make no difference. 
 

I would guess White, Morse and Poyer would be cut. 
 

free agents Floyd and Hyde will likely not be resigned. 
 

Don’t know about the others on the list 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

2 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Here you go. #'s are per Sportrac:

 

Allen Restrux - $18M

Diggs Restrux - $14M

Miller Restrux -$13M

 

That alone gets from negative cap space to $3M in space. 

Tre restrux or cutting him gets another $5-6M

Knox restrux gets $3M

Milano restrux gets $2.7M

A bunch of other restrux on guys like Bass, Bates, McG, etc can add up to another $5-10M. 

 

So before even cutting guys I got to over $20M in space. Now if you cut Harty and Hines that is another $10M. So with only losing Harty and Hines we have $30M in space. Cut deep and get rid of guys like Hyde, Power, Morse, Johnson then we could be north of $50M but better have some replacemnts.

 

Never as bad as it seems...

 

 

 

 

You’re not going to want to restructure Miller IMO. Kicks the can down the road, his dead cap numbers will be massive if he have to move on from him. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

You’re not going to want to restructure Miller IMO. Kicks the can down the road, his dead cap numbers will be massive if he have to move on from him. 

 

Yeah i got to 30.5 without touching miller or knox.  Knox isn't cuttable until 2024, and depending on results of all this stuff with Von who knows there.  I could see him getting cut with the hit splitting across 2024/2025.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 minute ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I think a cap reset of sorts is needed and the Bills need an infusion of young/cheap players.  I don't think Dawkins and Morse get cut.  I think Dawkins is an extension candidate and Morse could be as well.  White is an easy cut unless he is still injured, not sure how that will paly out.  I would also move on from Poyer Harty and Hines, they just need to cut bait with some of these guys.  Also, no way they cut Taron.  

 

Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines

Poyer and Hyde, IMO, are done. They may have 1-2 solid years left but this secondary needs to get younger and more athletic. 
 

If we move on from McD (who just signed a 3-year extension in June) some familiar faces go as well.