Alphadawg7 Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 8 hours ago, folz said: Since I looked at 5 top QBs statistically from 2020-2023 in my other post, I thought I would look at their TD:Turnover rate for that period (you went back to 2018). I also added a handful more guys from my last post for a larger comparison (outside of Rodgers, only choosing guys that played all 4 years). 2020-2023 TD:Turnover Rate* Total TDs Aaron Rodgers 4.37 118 (2020-2022 only for Rodgers) Justin Herbert 2.84 125 Patrick Mahomes 2.74 145 Jalen Hurts 2.36 99 Kirk Cousin 2.36 125 Dak Perscott 2.32 102 Joe Burrow 2.28 107 Josh Allen 2.19 162 Ryan Tannehill 2.15 86 Tua Tag 2.10 80 Matt Stafford 1.86 91 Lamar Jackson 1.82 89 Jared Goff 1.74 92 Derek Carr 1.50 87 *turnovers include interceptions and fumbles lost Now, granted, more overall TDs is still better (which Josh has) because the opposing team is not going to score 7 points off of every turnover. Some may just turn into field goals and on some they may not get points at all. So, TD to Turnover rate isn't some be-all stat for overall success or scoring or wins either. It just points out that, as we all know, Josh could get better at not turning the ball over. If he did, he would then be fully on par with Mahomes...but as it is, he's a step down right now because of the turnovers. Yet Josh's overall total TDs/scoring does balance out enough of the turnovers, to still put him ahead of the rest of the QBs in the league (not named Mahomes), imo. I mean would anyone really want Kirk Cousins instead of Josh Allen because Kirk has a better TD to Turnover Rate? And I will add that coming into this season, Allen had a better record than all of them not named Mahomes too...he wins...a lot. Even with this down year (thanks Dorsey) I think he would be among the top in terms of record since 2020. 1 Quote
Scott7975 Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said: So which of these Super Bowl contending peers of the Bills has worse offensive weapons then Buffalo? KC: Sure they don't have the dynamic duo of Kelsey/Hill but Mahomes had them for 4 seasons. In 2022 the Chiefs had a much better O line (top 3 versus a bottom 10 Bills line) and much better offensive coaching. This season Mahomes is the closest he's been to Allen in weapons since they entered the league. And notice how similar their numbers are this year. And of course Mahomes has better offensive coaching and a better O line. SF: Can we agree that the 49's Purdy has enjoyed much superior offensive play makers and O line and coaching versus the Bills over the last 2 seasons. Eagles: Hurts clearly has superior play makers, O line and offensive coaching. Dallas: Dak clearly has superior play makers and O line. Miami: Tua has superior play makers and offensive coaching. Cincinnati: Burrow enjoys superior play makers, a better O line (today) and better offensive coaching. The Bengals let 2 starting safeties go to further upgrade their O line. Baltimore: This is the one SB peer that until this year has not had superior play makers though this year they do. This is also a team & QB that have not sniffed the Super Bowl with the team being 1 - 4 and the QB 1 - 3 in the playoffs since 2018. So I would love to hear which of the Bills SB contending peers has worse offensive talent/coaching surrounding their QB then Allen has surrounding him? I agree with most of this but I think you are selling our oline short this year. They are one of the top lines this year IMO. Sure, they have had days where Brown was bad or something but for the most part they have done a damn good job. 2 1 Quote
CincyBillsFan Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 10 hours ago, Scott7975 said: I agree with most of this but I think you are selling our oline short this year. They are one of the top lines this year IMO. Sure, they have had days where Brown was bad or something but for the most part they have done a damn good job. I agree the O line this season is much improved over last season and that gives me cause for optimism going forward. But this debate is about Allen's TO narrative which has developed over the last few years. For example, last season the Bills had one of the worst O lines in the NFL. Quote
White Linen Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 On 11/29/2023 at 10:12 PM, FireChans said: I think he's at least a top 3 QB and a top 1A/1B QB when he's on his game. Yeah, yeah sure you do. Weren't you also the one that said you're never coming back here? Quote
cle23 Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 6:54 PM, folz said: About an hour ago I added the following comparison of Josh, Mahomes, and Hurts to the other thread (Alpha's thread). So, I thought I would put it in here too, just for added information on the subject: Three QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) [Didn't have time to do more than the 3 QBs, but figured it would be a good picture at least, 3 current top QBs]: Total Attempts (pass + rush) Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost) Turnover % Total TDs (pass + rush) TD % Allen 2,628 74 2.8 162 6.2 Mahomes 2,547 53 2.1 145 5.7 Hurts 1,879 42 2.24 99 5.3 Averages per season (2020-2023): Attempts Total TOs Total TDs Allen 657 18.5 40.5 Mahomes 636.75 13.25 36.25 Hurts 469.75 10.5 24.75 [If you prorate Hurts to the same number of attempts as Josh, his turnovers would rise to 14.7 and his TDs to 34.6.] So, yes, Josh has a lot more turnovers than Mahomes and Hurts overall, but on more attempts and also with more TDs. His TO% is indeed the highest, but so is his TD%. [And as far as attempts go, Mahomes is too close to Josh for it to probably make any significant difference; but if Hurts had 750 more attempts, it is likely that his turnover % would go up from where it is---just by odds]. Josh averages 1.09 turnovers/game and 2.38 TDs/game (net +1.29 TDs) Pat averages .78 turnovers/game and 2.13 TDs/game (net +1.35 TDs) Jalen averages .62 turnovers/game and 1.46 TDs/game (net +.84 TDs) So, in comparison to Mahomes, Josh has averaged 5 more turnovers per season, but also 4 more TDs per season In comparison to Hurts, Josh has averaged 8 more turnovers/season, but also 16 more TDs per season Another possible way to look at it (besides TDs) is number of yards per turnover: Total yards (2020-2023) Total TOs Yards/turnover Allen 18,736 74 253.12 Mahomes 19,098 53 360.34 Hurts 10,911 42 259.79 So, from a yardage standpoint, Mahomes is far out ahead. But, Hurts and Josh are pretty close. All things considered, I think Josh's yardage, TDs, and IT factor far outweigh the high turnover percentage in relation to any QB not named Mahomes. But, boy, if he could get that turnover rate down a bit... As a counter point though, compare Allen's first 3 years as a starter to Hurts first 3 years as a starter. Allen was much better as he went along, so your aren't fully comparing apples to apples, especially with Hurts. Also, only going by lost fumbles skews it a bit as well. I have no idea how many fumbles in general, but lucking into your own team recovering doesn't mean that the player didn't fumble. 1 Quote
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, cle23 said: As a counter point though, compare Allen's first 3 years as a starter to Hurts first 3 years as a starter. Allen was much better as he went along, so your aren't fully comparing apples to apples, especially with Hurts. Also, only going by lost fumbles skews it a bit as well. I have no idea how many fumbles in general, but lucking into your own team recovering doesn't mean that the player didn't fumble. Yeah, the only stat that matters is fumbles. Fumble recovering is total luck. You just can’t put the ball on the ground ever. Ints are not all the same, like an end of the half Hail Mary. 1 Quote
FireChans Posted December 2, 2023 Author Posted December 2, 2023 30 minutes ago, White Linen said: Yeah, yeah sure you do. Weren't you also the one that said you're never coming back here? No? Who takes TBD or the Bills that seriously? Quote
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 14 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said: So which of these Super Bowl contending peers of the Bills has worse offensive weapons then Buffalo? KC: Sure they don't have the dynamic duo of Kelsey/Hill but Mahomes had them for 4 seasons. In 2022 the Chiefs had a much better O line (top 3 versus a bottom 10 Bills line) and much better offensive coaching. This season Mahomes is the closest he's been to Allen in weapons since they entered the league. And notice how similar their numbers are this year. And of course Mahomes has better offensive coaching and a better O line. SF: Can we agree that the 49's Purdy has enjoyed much superior offensive play makers and O line and coaching versus the Bills over the last 2 seasons. Eagles: Hurts clearly has superior play makers, O line and offensive coaching. Dallas: Dak clearly has superior play makers and O line. Miami: Tua has superior play makers and offensive coaching. Cincinnati: Burrow enjoys superior play makers, a better O line (today) and better offensive coaching. The Bengals let 2 starting safeties go to further upgrade their O line. Baltimore: This is the one SB peer that until this year has not had superior play makers though this year they do. This is also a team & QB that have not sniffed the Super Bowl with the team being 1 - 4 and the QB 1 - 3 in the playoffs since 2018. So I would love to hear which of the Bills SB contending peers has worse offensive talent/coaching surrounding their QB then Allen has surrounding him? If you don’t think KC has a worst group of playmakers, you’re simply not being honest Gabe Davis would be the best receiver on KC by millions. And taking age/ contract/ injuries in mind, I’m not so sure the majority of GMs won’t take Kincaid over Kelce at this point either. I agree the other groups besides Baltimore are better and that’s why I think Allen is better than all those qbs (I lean toward Allen over Burrow because Allen is more dynamic). But you keep pushing this false narrative that Allen is surrounded by bums. A top 5 wr and TE is pretty good. 2nd round rb. A good oline. No major injuries. You act like we are the Carolina Panthers. Quote
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 17 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said: Is this how you debate points? Seems like you melt down and start throwing insults at anyone that disagrees with your unhinged and inaccurate attacks on Allen. BTW, what I think is weird is that you haven't been able to get past your hatred of the Allen pick from back in 2018. How long are you going to hold a grudge that Allen has made you and bunch of others look like football illiterates. Oh and I love your passive aggressive shtick where you trash Allen and then add a disclaimer at the end saying something along the lines that "Allen is a top 3 QB". Come on man, anyone reading what you say about Allen's deficiencies can't possibly believe that you believe he's a top 3 QB. Dude, you’re a child. I hate the Allen pick because I say he’s a top 3 qb; the Bills have been a good organization; and he turnovers the ball over a bit too much (which is a proven stat). Oh my god, I’m just a hater. I root for the Buffalo Bills. I stopped rooting for players a long time again and don’t form emotional attachments like you apparently do. I really really like Allen (but you only said he was top 3 you meanie!). Met him a few times. Great guy. But guess what? He doesn’t care about you. He’s going to do what’s best for Allen. He is getting paid $250 million. Expectations are extremely high now. He is going to have to carry this team because we don’t have the cap space to load it up like we have. everything I say on here is fact. Allen leads in turnovers since he was drafted. He is really good so you take some of them. But have the turnovers hurt us? Yes. Stop being emotional and go for a walk outside 1 Quote
Eastport bills Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 14 hours ago, FireChans said: The numbers are the numbers my man. I don’t necessarily agree that Josh has the WEAKEST supporting cast, but I do agree that upgrading our offensive weapons would probably decrease his propensity to press and make poor throws. It’s very fair, imo, to say that Mahomes’ numbers are boosted a bit from having two HoF targets for a chunk of his career. I also think Josh’s gunslinger gutsy mentality drives a lot of these TO’s as well, and that makes him the great QB he is. I just wish he could be a little bit better at picking and choosing his spots. Stop trying to fix him. He’s fine. If you still have some objectivity,the only statistics that matter is wins. Other than the Jets, week one. Look at the other 5 losses. NE, Philly, Denver, Cinn, and Jacksonv. One defensive stop on the last possession wins the game in 3 of the 5(NE, Denver, and Philly) The other 2 had a crushing fumble by Kincaid in the red zone as we were about to take the lead and the Jags just scored on 3 straight possessions after Josh brought us back.Bottom line even with the TOs the guy puts us in a position to win. Mahomes has just as many TOs but his defense gets stops. It’s a team game, but our QB plays every game and shouldn’t be questioned with frivolity. 2 Quote
oldmanfan Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 17 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said: Is this how you debate points? Seems like you melt down and start throwing insults at anyone that disagrees with your unhinged and inaccurate attacks on Allen. BTW, what I think is weird is that you haven't been able to get past your hatred of the Allen pick from back in 2018. How long are you going to hold a grudge that Allen has made you and bunch of others look like football illiterates. Oh and I love your passive aggressive shtick where you trash Allen and then add a disclaimer at the end saying something along the lines that "Allen is a top 3 QB". Come on man, anyone reading what you say about Allen's deficiencies can't possibly believe that you believe he's a top 3 QB. 14 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said: So which of these Super Bowl contending peers of the Bills has worse offensive weapons then Buffalo? KC: Sure they don't have the dynamic duo of Kelsey/Hill but Mahomes had them for 4 seasons. In 2022 the Chiefs had a much better O line (top 3 versus a bottom 10 Bills line) and much better offensive coaching. This season Mahomes is the closest he's been to Allen in weapons since they entered the league. And notice how similar their numbers are this year. And of course Mahomes has better offensive coaching and a better O line. SF: Can we agree that the 49's Purdy has enjoyed much superior offensive play makers and O line and coaching versus the Bills over the last 2 seasons. Eagles: Hurts clearly has superior play makers, O line and offensive coaching. Dallas: Dak clearly has superior play makers and O line. Miami: Tua has superior play makers and offensive coaching. Cincinnati: Burrow enjoys superior play makers, a better O line (today) and better offensive coaching. The Bengals let 2 starting safeties go to further upgrade their O line. Baltimore: This is the one SB peer that until this year has not had superior play makers though this year they do. This is also a team & QB that have not sniffed the Super Bowl with the team being 1 - 4 and the QB 1 - 3 in the playoffs since 2018. So I would love to hear which of the Bills SB contending peers has worse offensive talent/coaching surrounding their QB then Allen has surrounding him? Tell TBD the truth. You don’t really live in Cinci; you’re either Josh’s girl friend or mother. No one else would go to such insane depths to defend the guy. He’s a great QB. He needs to stop throwing so many picks. Those are not mutually exclusive. Move on. 1 Quote
CincyBillsFan Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 27 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: If you don’t think KC has a worst group of playmakers, you’re simply not being honest Gabe Davis would be the best receiver on KC by millions. And taking age/ contract/ injuries in mind, I’m not so sure the majority of GMs won’t take Kincaid over Kelce at this point either. You forgot to mention Kelsey or doesn't he count as a "receiver"? 5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Tell TBD the truth. You don’t really live in Cinci; you’re either Josh’s girl friend or mother. No one else would go to such insane depths to defend the guy. I suspect that I speak for a lot of Bills fans when I defend Allen from the petty and inaccurate attacks that you and certain other posters on 2BD engage in. What I find odd is that you guys take it so personally when someone defends an elite Bills QB on a Buffalo Bills message board. 25 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Dude, you’re a child. I hate the Allen pick because I say he’s a top 3 qb; the Bills have been a good organization; and he turnovers the ball over a bit too much (which is a proven stat). Oh my god, I’m just a hater. I root for the Buffalo Bills. I stopped rooting for players a long time again and don’t form emotional attachments like you apparently do. I really really like Allen (but you only said he was top 3 you meanie!). Met him a few times. Great guy. But guess what? He doesn’t care about you. He’s going to do what’s best for Allen. He is getting paid $250 million. Expectations are extremely high now. He is going to have to carry this team because we don’t have the cap space to load it up like we have. everything I say on here is fact. Allen leads in turnovers since he was drafted. He is really good so you take some of them. But have the turnovers hurt us? Yes. Stop being emotional and go for a walk outside Weird is all I can say to describe this rant. Quote
oldmanfan Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said: You forgot to mention Kelsey or doesn't he count as a "receiver"? I suspect that I speak for a lot of Bills fans when I defend Allen from the petty and inaccurate attacks that you and certain other posters on 2BD engage in. What I find odd is that you guys take it so personally when someone defends an elite Bills QB on a Buffalo Bills message board. Weird is all I can say to describe this rant. And what did I say? That’s he’s a great QB. You did read that, right? But he also should throw less picks. He leads the league. He can improve on that. Are you saying that’s wrong? If you are, then honestly you either have to be a relative or a girl friend. Quote
FireChans Posted December 2, 2023 Author Posted December 2, 2023 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Eastport bills said: Stop trying to fix him. He’s fine. If you still have some objectivity,the only statistics that matter is wins. Other than the Jets, week one. Look at the other 5 losses. NE, Philly, Denver, Cinn, and Jacksonv. One defensive stop on the last possession wins the game in 3 of the 5(NE, Denver, and Philly) The other 2 had a crushing fumble by Kincaid in the red zone as we were about to take the lead and the Jags just scored on 3 straight possessions after Josh brought us back.Bottom line even with the TOs the guy puts us in a position to win. Mahomes has just as many TOs but his defense gets stops. It’s a team game, but our QB plays every game and shouldn’t be questioned with frivolity. If the only statistic that matters is wins, and we are 6-6, I don’t think that supports your argument like you think it does. The only two games this year without a Josh INT were 28+ point wins. Some of our games have come down to a handful of plays, like you said. One less TO vs the Jets, the Pats, the Jags, the Broncos, the Eagles and maybe we win a couple of those games. And maybe we aren’t 6-6 with a season on life support. Edited December 2, 2023 by FireChans Quote
oldmanfan Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 (edited) The Harvard Sports Initiative published a study showing that having one less turnover in a game gives you an almost 70% greater chance of winning a game, and if 2-3 it goes up to 80-90%. Ergo, it would help them team to throw less picks. Math can be simple. Edited December 2, 2023 by oldmanfan Quote
GoBills808 Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 You don't have to go to Harvard to understand that fewer (not 'less'😂😂😂) turnover increase win% but I'm glad to see we are making progress lol 1 Quote
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said: You forgot to mention Kelsey or doesn't he count as a "receiver"? I suspect that I speak for a lot of Bills fans when I defend Allen from the petty and inaccurate attacks that you and certain other posters on 2BD engage in. What I find odd is that you guys take it so personally when someone defends an elite Bills QB on a Buffalo Bills message board. Weird is all I can say to describe this rant. You’re losing it buddy. You are having temper tantrums because some posters, who have all said Allen is a top 3, rightly have said Allen gets loose with ball and the bills aren’t this tire fire around him that you make them out to be. And instead of saying yeah Allen could be a little more careful with the ball at times, your response is “you hate Josh Allen.” It’s weird. 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: You don't have to go to Harvard to understand that fewer (not 'less'😂😂😂) turnover increase win% but I'm glad to see we are making progress lol Why do you hate Josh Allen??? Quote
Eastport bills Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 19 minutes ago, FireChans said: If the only statistic that matters is wins, and we are 6-6, I don’t think that supports your argument like you think it does. The only two games this year without a Josh INT were 28+ point wins. Some of our games have come down to a handful of plays, like you said. One less TO vs the Jets, the Pats, the Jags, the Broncos, the Eagles and maybe we win a couple of those games. And maybe we aren’t 6-6 with a season on life support. 19 minutes ago, FireChans said: If the only statistic that matters is wins, and we are 6-6, I don’t think that supports your argument like you think it does. The only two games this year without a Josh INT were 28+ point wins. Some of our games have come down to a handful of plays, like you said. One less TO vs the Jets, the Pats, the Jags, the Broncos, the Eagles and maybe we win a couple of those games. And maybe we aren’t 6-6 with a season on life support. What are you looking for in a QB? The crap that we trotted out for 20 years until Josh arrived, no playoffs, no national TV games a procession of bad coaches equals irrelevance. Efficiency experts like FireChans anxiously waiting for a year where he can correlate losses to TOs. Forget the rest of the roster that either is out for the year or can’t make a play or coaches that are holding Josh back(Dorsey,Sean) We lost against NE because after Josh led a game winning drive capping a great comeback, Sean’s defense let MACk JONES drive the field to win. The 4 touchdowns Josh produced against the Eagles wasn’t impactful only the pick caused the loss and against the Broncos, Josh had a bad game but led a winning TD drive before Sean’s defense choked.Forget the fact we lead until the last possession in those games it was that pesky Josh turnover that killed us. Try and grasp the idea that Josh has been forced to make throws in tight windows because the receivers mostly got no separation and game planning went away from the run game. Still, he lead the league in TDs over a 5 year period. Naturally there were TOs but 3 division titles, 4 playoff wins and up there in regular season wins with league leaders. Anyone with 1/2 a brain can see you’re grasping at straws to express a negativity towards a franchise saving player. Without this player, FAs respectfully say not interested in playing in Buffalo. Your premise is silly and I legitimized it by responding. Quote
GoBills808 Posted December 2, 2023 Posted December 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Why do you hate Josh Allen??? The Allen rhetoric has hit peak stupid imo There is a ton of evidence this year to suggest he's having his most efficient season to date. The metrics have him at the top of the league in almost all relevant QB categories. The counting stats similar. And watching the games as we do it should be overwhelmingly obvious that his production outweighs a high turnover rate. 3 Quote
FireChans Posted December 2, 2023 Author Posted December 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Eastport bills said: What are you looking for in a QB? The crap that we trotted out for 20 years until Josh arrived, no playoffs, no national TV games a procession of bad coaches equals irrelevance. Efficiency experts like FireChans anxiously waiting for a year where he can correlate losses to TOs. Forget the rest of the roster that either is out for the year or can’t make a play or coaches that are holding Josh back(Dorsey,Sean) We lost against NE because after Josh led a game winning drive capping a great comeback, Sean’s defense let MACk JONES drive the field to win. The 4 touchdowns Josh produced against the Eagles wasn’t impactful only the pick caused the loss and against the Broncos, Josh had a bad game but led a winning TD drive before Sean’s defense choked.Forget the fact we lead until the last possession in those games it was that pesky Josh turnover that killed us. Try and grasp the idea that Josh has been forced to make throws in tight windows because the receivers mostly got no separation and game planning went away from the run game. Still, he lead the league in TDs over a 5 year period. Naturally there were TOs but 3 division titles, 4 playoff wins and up there in regular season wins with league leaders. Anyone with 1/2 a brain can see you’re grasping at straws to express a negativity towards a franchise saving player. Without this player, FAs respectfully say not interested in playing in Buffalo. Your premise is silly and I legitimized it by responding. Josh is much better than Trent Edwards. So no. Your counterpoints are very funny. Josh needed a miraculous 4th Q comeback against the Pats (don’t forget the defense forcing the TO to enable that comeback, always a forgotten play) because the offense couldn’t score more than a TD through 53 minutes against a terrible defense and a terrible team. If we want to give Josh the lion’s share of the credit for the team’s accomplishments since he’s been here (totally fair), then he also gets a nice piece of the blame pie when the team is 6-6. “Josh is the sole reason we have a couple playoffs wins but nothing is his fault this season” ain’t gonna fly. 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: The Allen rhetoric has hit peak stupid imo There is a ton of evidence this year to suggest he's having his most efficient season to date. The metrics have him at the top of the league in almost all relevant QB categories. The counting stats similar. And watching the games as we do it should be overwhelmingly obvious that his production outweighs a high turnover rate. No QB, franchise or otherwise, in the history of the NFL HAS EVER been blameless for a lost season. Quote
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