Addressing the "Josh Allen is TO machine" narrative

[FireChans]

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Your data in the OP is accurate. I have no problems with that.

 

Your conclusion was wrong. Like blatantly wrong. 

I don’t think so. 
 

Allen is pretty much has the worst TD/TO ratio of the really good QB’s from that list. Worse than guys we are pretty confident he is better then. 
 

And the only way to have a turn over ratio lower than a guy like Dak, when you score a lot more touchdowns is to also have a lot more TO’s.

 

Hence, the conclusion. 

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Honestly you need to chill bro. You won't survive the Josh Allen era at this rate. He's only maybe halfway through his career. 

That’s kinda the problem. Halfway through his career and we haven’t sniffed an SB.

 

It felt like an inevitability 2 years ago. It no longer does.

[ALG1130]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I don’t think so. 
 

Allen is pretty much has the worst TD/TO ratio of the really good QB’s from that list. Worse than guys we are pretty confident he is better then. 
 

And the only way to have a turn over ratio lower than a guy like Dak, when you score a lot more touchdowns is to also have a lot more TO’s.

 

Hence, the conclusion. 

That’s kinda the problem. Halfway through his career and we haven’t sniffed an SB.

 

It felt like an inevitability 2 years ago. It no longer does.

First of all, they went to the AFCCG in 2020. That is as close to getting(sniffing) to a SB as you can get, the following year they were 13 seconds away from sniffing their 2nd AFCCG in a row, and you know damn well what happened. It's a team effort and I am sure you know this. You are just a hater. Probably the biggest one on this forum. 

 

Bills fans have become incredibly spoiled if their biggest problem in this day and age, only making the playoffs is a disaster, especially for a team that went 17 years without doing so. Acting like going to the SB is some super easy thing to do when in reality it is not. If it was as easy as people make it out to be, all the teams in the NFL would have made an appearance. We may never go to one, but it's not going to take away from Josh and how he was as a player.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

First of all, they went to the AFCCG in 2020. That is as close to getting(sniffing) to a SB as you can get, the following year they were 13 seconds away from sniffing their 2nd AFCCG in a row, and you know damn well what happened. It's a team effort and I am sure you know this. You are just a hater. Probably the biggest one on this forum. 

 

Bills fans have become incredibly spoiled if their biggest problem in this day and age, only making the playoffs is a disaster, especially for a team that went 17 years without doing so. Acting like going to the SB is some super easy thing to do when in reality it is not. If it was as easy as people make it out to be, all the teams in the NFL would have made an appearance. We may never go to one, but it's not going to take away from Josh and how he was as a player.

I just want to win a Super Bowl lol.

[ALG1130]

Just now, FireChans said:

I just want to win a Super Bowl lol.

Yeah, and so do the rest of us. I also want a million dollars. We can 
want" things all we want, but a lot of things have to come to place for it to happen. I think you know damn well that if we hung on for "13 seconds" and got to host the AFCCG back in the 21/22 year, we would have gone to the SB. The offense was on fire in the playoffs that year, and I think we would have killed The Bengals. In case anyone forgot, the Chiefs were in the midst of blowing that team out in the AFCCG and took their foot off the gas. Burrow was not lighting it up that year either in the playoffs. I think we would have gone.

 

You need a total team and coaching effort, a little bit of luck, things to fall into place. You need all of these things. Our coaching staff blundered that. If it's easier for you to blame the guy(QB1) who is allowing our team to even have a chance, or be in the conversation for a Super Bowl, you do you, if it makes you feel better.

[C.Biscuit97]

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Honestly you need to chill bro. You won't survive the Josh Allen era at this rate. He's only maybe halfway through his career. 

I agree and there’s a long way to go. But things close fast in the nfl. Allen is making big boy money so we aren’t going to be able to load up like we have in the past. It’s going to be on him more than ever. 
 

bills fans love hating on Cam Newton (who I think favors Allen a lot even though they are different races and you can’t compare them! 🥴). Newton set rookie passing records; won a MVP with Ted Ginn as his number 1 receiver (he would have killed for Allen’s weapons); and went to a SB with Ron Rivera (McDermott is the far superior coach). Then like 2 years later, he was done. It can happen so fast,

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I don’t think so. 
 

well then we simply might as well as stop arguing the point as this won’t go anywhere if you continue to think the numbers are some how close.

 

surely you would not say two QB’s, one with 20 TD’s on the season and one with 40TD’s on the season are close in total TD’s right?

 

so what makes 20 and 40 close when we are talking INT’s to TD’s vs. TD’s to TD’s?

 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

27 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

Yeah, and so do the rest of us. I also want a million dollars. We can 
want" things all we want, but a lot of things have to come to place for it to happen. I think you know damn well that if we hung on for "13 seconds" and got to host the AFCCG back in the 21/22 year, we would have gone to the SB. The offense was on fire in the playoffs that year, and I think we would have killed The Bengals. In case anyone forgot, the Chiefs were in the midst of blowing that team out in the AFCCG and took their foot off the gas. Burrow was not lighting it up that year either in the playoffs. I think we would have gone.

 

You need a total team and coaching effort, a little bit of luck, things to fall into place. You need all of these things. Our coaching staff blundered that. If it's easier for you to blame the guy(QB1) who is allowing our team to even have a chance, or be in the conversation for a Super Bowl, you do you, if it makes you feel better.

This organization also helped Allen get to where he is as well. This team had some of the best SB odds of any team this offseason. Let’s not pretend like Allen is on the Pats. 
 

allen is amazing but he is going to be under scrutiny because he is making $45 million/ year and the roster will be limited now because of that. Allen’s good is as good as any qb in the nfl. But we need to stop pretending he plays like that every week. It has been very inconsistent this season and he is part of the reason. Not all but it’s wild how so many just give him a pass (awesome pun).  Hopefully with Brady, we will see more Eagles games than Broncos ones (where he was absolutely terrible). 

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

well then we simply might as well as stop arguing the point as this won’t go anywhere if you continue to think the numbers are some how close.

 

surely you would not say two QB’s, one with 20 TD’s on the season and one with 40TD’s on the season are close in total TD’s right?

 

so what makes 20 and 40 close when we are talking INT’s to TD’s vs. TD’s to TD’s?

 

 

 

He has a worse TD/TO ratio despite creating lots of touchdowns. Which means he has lots of TO’s.

 

Do you agree with that? 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He has a worse TD/TO ratio despite creating lots of touchdowns. Which means he has lots of TO’s.

 

Do you agree with that? 

I agree with that, but your original conclusion was wrong. They’re not close in any kind of way.

 

The reason they’re not close despite having the highest turnover rate among quarterbacks is that he also has the highest touchdown rate among quarterbacks.

 

if he was middle of the pack in touchdown rate, or maybe just slightly above average in touchdown rate, but still had the highest turnover rate in the league, we might actually have a problem and something worth discussing.

 

 

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I agree with that, but your original conclusion was wrong. They’re not close in any kind of way.

 

The reason they’re not close despite having the highest turnover rate among quarterbacks is that he also has the highest touchdown rate among quarterbacks.

 

if he was middle of the pack in touchdown rate, or maybe just slightly above average in touchdown rate, but still had the highest turnover rate in the league, we might actually have a problem and something worth discussing.

 

 

I think having one of the lower TD/TO ratios of the best QB’s in the NFL, isn’t that good.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

To me its not a consistent "turnover machine" issue - he just has games where he's a turnover machine.  Usually you lose those games.  Jets and Denver this year - whether we should have won either or not, we're in a lot better shape if he doesn't combine for 7 turnovers in those games.  Like if he doesn't play terrible in those games - probably 8-4.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think having one of the lower TD/TO ratios of the best QB’s in the NFL, isn’t that good.

is there even a significant difference between 2.18 and say 2.5? That might be something worth figuring out first. My hunch is that it’s insignificant because the raw data tells us 20 in fact is actually not close to 44 at all. And 210 is significantly greater than 96.

Very few quarterbacks in the league have a touchdown to turnover ratio closer to 3 to 1 the majority are closer to 2:1 like Allen.
 

and this year there’s quarterbacks that are considered good with even lower touchdown to turnover ratios than Allen has.

[ALG1130]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This organization also helped Allen get to where he is as well. This team had some of the best SB odds of any team this offseason. Let’s not pretend like Allen is on the Pats. 
 

allen is amazing but he is going to be under scrutiny because he is making $45 million/ year and the roster will be limited now because of that. Allen’s good is as good as any qb in the nfl. But we need to stop pretending he plays like that every week. It has been very inconsistent this season and he is part of the reason. Not all but it’s wild how so many just give him a pass (awesome pun).  Hopefully with Brady, we will see more Eagles games than Broncos ones (where he was absolutely terrible). 

The main reason why Buffalo has been in contention is the Allen to Diggs combo. The rest of the team is not, nor has been as great as the Allen and Diggs duo. This is not the 90's, where The Buffalo Bills were a loaded team, from top to bottom. Jim Kelly, Andre Reed, Thurman Thomas, Bruce Smith, Darryl Talley, Steve Tasker, a loaded offensive line. If we had THAT type of team, I would agree with you, but we have had two very special players elevating this team, and a "decent" team outside of them. 

[NewEra]

@FireChans nice thread.  Pay me

[FireChans]

36 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

is there even a significant difference between 2.18 and say 2.5? That might be something worth figuring out first. My hunch is that it’s insignificant because the raw data tells us 20 in fact is actually not close to 44 at all. And 210 is significantly greater than 96.

Very few quarterbacks in the league have a touchdown to turnover ratio closer to 3 to 1 the majority are closer to 2:1 like Allen.
 

and this year there’s quarterbacks that are considered good with even lower touchdown to turnover ratios than Allen has.

I bet the difference between Mahomes’ 3.2 and 2.18 is statistically significant.

21 minutes ago, NewEra said:

@FireChans nice thread.  Pay me

DM’s are open, send me that venmo

[C.Biscuit97]

35 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

The main reason why Buffalo has been in contention is the Allen to Diggs combo. The rest of the team is not, nor has been as great as the Allen and Diggs duo. This is not the 90's, where The Buffalo Bills were a loaded team, from top to bottom. Jim Kelly, Andre Reed, Thurman Thomas, Bruce Smith, Darryl Talley, Steve Tasker, a loaded offensive line. If we had THAT type of team, I would agree with you, but we have had two very special players elevating this team, and a "decent" team outside of them. 

1 - there was no salary cap in 90s

 

2 - the bills made the playoffs in Allen’s second year when he was very raw still and was a major reason we lost that playoff game to Houston. 
 

3 - the defense has ranked 6th, 2nd, 1st,  16th, & 2nd in points allowed since Allen has been here. 
 

zero question Allen is our best player and a top 3 qb. But to act like this is some garbage team surround him is just wrong. The offense has been remarkably healthy this year but has been super inconsistent. I don’t know any reasonable fan can deny that. 

[CincyBillsFan]

11 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

2 - the bills made the playoffs in Allen’s second year when he was very raw still and was a major reason we lost that playoff game to Houston. 
 

 

This is flat out wrong. Allen was NOT the major reason the Bills lost that playoff game.  The major reasons the Bills lost that game:

 

*  The defense, as it has been prone to do in the playoffs, blew a late 3rd quarter 16 - 0 lead. 

 

*  McD got to conservative in the 2nd half with the offense.

 

Allen actually played well in that game given it was his first playoff game, was on the road, and the Bills had not exactly surrounded him with play makers unless you consider that guy from the CFL a "ply maker".

 

 

16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

3 - the defense has ranked 6th, 2nd, 1st,  16th, & 2nd in points allowed since Allen has been here. 
 

And in the playoffs during the time Allen has been here the defense has played poorly in all but one of the games.

 

[Mango]

It is so odd to me that this is being debated. 

More turn overs are always worse than less.

Yes, scoring more points makes it easier to overcome if you score more points, but it doesn't change the equation that turnovers=bad and more turnovers=more bad. 

I actually don't love Dak, but he is 6-1 in the last 7 weeks with 23:2 TD to INT's. That is about as good as it gets. 23:6 will always be a worse result than 23:2, and like changes the Cowboys from 6-1 in those games to 5-2, 4-3, or 3-4 depending on where those additional 4 INT's come.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

55 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I bet the difference between Mahomes’ 3.2 and 2.18 is statistically significant.

 

 

I can only speculate that it probably is. Yes, I would say 44 to 20 vs. 40 to 10 kind of visually pops as a significant difference at least.

 

But then again, 44 is still much greater than 20 right? Just as 40 is much greater than 10?  Is either one almost the same? It might just be me but if the numbers were like 30 TD's to 22 TO's, or 200 TD's to 170 TO's, those would be differences I would consider "almost the same". Not 44 to 20. or 210 to 96

 

Again, the heart of the argument here is in the final line of your OP:

 

On 11/29/2023 at 6:05 PM, FireChans said:

 

But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

 

 

On 11/29/2023 at 6:26 PM, FireChans said:

Got it!  Gonna do an abridged list in order of total TDs

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-turnovers-by-a-qb-since-2020

 

Allen 2.36

Mahomes 3.02

Herbert 2.65

Kirk 2.24

Rodgers 4.37 (!)

Brady 2.7

Wilson 2.4

Burrow 2.27

Dak 2.22

Hurts 2.58

Lamar 1.89 (oof)

Yes

 

We basically have three outliers here. Mahomes and Rodgers on the good end. Lamar on the bad end. And then everyone else jumbled between 2.22 and 2.7. I'm going to make a strong guess that there isn't a meaningful difference there between any of those players jumbled in between Rodgers/ Mahomes at the top and Lamar at the bottom.

 

 

On 11/29/2023 at 6:30 PM, Warcodered said:

Doesn't really support the narrative this year that they've been saying it though, when Mahomes this specific year sits at 1.91, Hurts is at 2.07, and Tua is at eeesh 1.57,

Doesn't seem like it or if they are that's a coincidence that the numbers ended up the same.

 

 

 

Then of course there is this. Where ironically the turnover narrative for Allen this year is in full blown crisis mode while he has essentially the same TD:TO rate as Hurts and a higher TD:TO rate than Mahomes and Tua. But it is only Allen that has the turnover crisis. Not the other QB's. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

This is flat out wrong. Allen was NOT the major reason the Bills lost that playoff game.  The major reasons the Bills lost that game:

 

*  The defense, as it has been prone to do in the playoffs, blew a late 3rd quarter 16 - 0 lead. 

 

*  McD got to conservative in the 2nd half with the offense.

 

Allen actually played well in that game given it was his first playoff game, was on the road, and the Bills had not exactly surrounded him with play makers unless you consider that guy from the CFL a "ply maker".

 

 

And in the playoffs during the time Allen has been here the defense has played poorly in all but one of the games.

 

This is the problem. Are you a fan of the bills or Josh Allen?  Like this is kind of weird and I should alert Allen?  Any slight (the horror of saying Allen is a top 3 qb but can be inconsistent at times! 😱) makes you react like a soccer mom talking about their kid. 
 

Allen had a 69.5 qb rating against the Texans with 2 fumbles (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202001040htx.htm) and made some wild decision making. And it was his first playoff start so it is completely understandable. But if you can’t admit that he wasn’t that great that game, you might be more in love with him than Haley.

 

but yes going forward, nothing will ever be Josh Allen’s fault. With him taking up 40% of the cap space, we just need a figure a way to get Chase and Jefferson here somehow. 

30 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I can only speculate that it probably is. Yes, I would say 44 to 20 vs. 40 to 10 kind of visually pops as a significant difference at least.

 

But then again, 44 is still much greater than 20 right? Just as 40 is much greater than 10?  Is either one almost the same? It might just be me but if the numbers were like 30 TD's to 22 TO's, or 200 TD's to 170 TO's, those would be differences I would consider "almost the same". Not 44 to 20. or 210 to 96

 

Again, the heart of the argument here is in the final line of your OP:

 

 

 

We basically have three outliers here. Mahomes and Rodgers on the good end. Lamar on the bad end. And then everyone else jumbled between 2.22 and 2.7. I'm going to make a strong guess that there isn't a meaningful difference there between any of those players jumbled in between Rodgers/ Mahomes at the top and Lamar at the bottom.

 

 

 

Then of course there is this. Where ironically the turnover narrative for Allen this year is in full blown crisis mode while he has essentially the same TD:TO rate as Hurts and a higher TD:TO rate than Mahomes and Tua. But it is only Allen that has the turnover crisis. Not the other QB's. 

Allen has the most turnovers in the league. The Bills are 6-6 and lost games to the Jets and Pats. Allen is the best player on the bills. The turnovers have not helped our record. Can we at least agree on that?