transplantbillsfan Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 1 hour ago, FireChans said: Ball security with Goff is a huge sticking point. That man has tiny hands. He had multiple fumbles on TG and lost them the game. Prescott was an INT machine last season and it was a huge narrative. Stafford is also a TO machine, it was also a narrative about if he could win a Super Bowl leading the league in INT’s after the trade. Lamar has a lower overall TO number but his TD number isn’t that good, since 2020. I don’t have the standard deviation ready to argue if the differences in these numbers are “negligible” or “about the same.” I think you and @Alphadawg7 are looking at this in the wrong way. There should be one way to examine turnovers alone: It's about turnovers to touches. Total turnovers DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage. That's how you determine whether Josh is really turnover prone compared to other QBs. Josh, Lamar and Burrow I know are all relatively close to each other. Josh is about 2.5% while Burrow and Lamar are about 2.1%. I didn't put in any work for anyone else, but since you 2 are going back and forth with this, you might want to. The thing is, to really figure out the cost/benefit to all this, you also basically need to do the same formula for total Touchdowns. Total touchdowns DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage. That would be their actual TD %. Josh in this category is 5.6% while BOTH Burrow and Lamar sit at 4.8% So at least as far as these 2 other Elite QBs go, Josh's TD % is pretty notably higher than his TO % is worse than Burrow & Lamar, but the conversation is always about Josh being a turnover machine. 1 Quote
FireChans Posted November 30, 2023 Author Posted November 30, 2023 21 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: I think you and @Alphadawg7 are looking at this in the wrong way. There should be one way to examine turnovers alone: It's about turnovers to touches. Total turnovers DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage. That's how you determine whether Josh is really turnover prone compared to other QBs. Josh, Lamar and Burrow I know are all relatively close to each other. Josh is about 2.5% while Burrow and Lamar are about 2.1%. I didn't put in any work for anyone else, but since you 2 are going back and forth with this, you might want to. The thing is, to really figure out the cost/benefit to all this, you also basically need to do the same formula for total Touchdowns. Total touchdowns DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage. That would be their actual TD %. Josh in this category is 5.6% while BOTH Burrow and Lamar sit at 4.8% So at least as far as these 2 other Elite QBs go, Josh's TD % is pretty notably higher than his TO % is worse than Burrow & Lamar, but the conversation is always about Josh being a turnover machine. 15 hours ago, Rew said: While including all turnovers makes sense, any total turnover count still hides some data. Using the same list that you provided, I tried to come up with a fair look at how likely someone is to turnover the ball and view on how likely they are to score a touchdown. Basically, the combination of sacks/rushes/receptions turn into "other touches". Fumble rate is lost fumbles on those touches. turnover rate is ints and fumbles out of all plays where the QB didn't hand off the ball (throw/scramble/rush/receive). touchdown rate is on the same basis as turnover rate. This is still not perfect, as it doesn't account for kneeldowns and arm punts, but more complete then any of the other views bouncing around today. I also wish I could find a publicly available breakdown of fumbles lost on sacks vs fumbles lost rushing, but no luck. Out of this grouping of active players Allen is tasked with the 2nd highest total touch count (43 times per game). Allen is in the elite of the league (Rodgers/Mahomes/Allen) with how frequently their touches turn into touchdowns. Allen's touches result in a turnover 2.4% of the time, which is on the higher end of the 2-2.5% grouping. I ran numbers for a few other active players not on this list and they tend to be 2.5% on average with several in the 3-4% range and a few under 2%. As an example of high turnovers on active players, Winston is at 3.7%. In conclusion, Allen touches the ball more times per game than most active quarterbacks, he scores touchdowns at a frequency that puts him at an elite level, and he turns over the ball around league average but at a higher frequency than many of the other elite players. In short, he is not at all representative of a "turnover machine", but he is also not a role model on elite ball security. This post did that. Josh has one of the highest TO/touch ratio of these players. 1 Quote
transplantbillsfan Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) 36 minutes ago, FireChans said: This post did that. Josh has one of the highest TO/touch ratio of these players. Ummm... did you actually read the post and look at the chart? He does not have the highest ratio of the players on that chart. Edited November 30, 2023 by transplantbillsfan Quote
folz Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: I think you and @Alphadawg7 are looking at this in the wrong way. There should be one way to examine turnovers alone: It's about turnovers to touches. Total turnovers DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage. That's how you determine whether Josh is really turnover prone compared to other QBs. Josh, Lamar and Burrow I know are all relatively close to each other. Josh is about 2.5% while Burrow and Lamar are about 2.1%. I didn't put in any work for anyone else, but since you 2 are going back and forth with this, you might want to. The thing is, to really figure out the cost/benefit to all this, you also basically need to do the same formula for total Touchdowns. Total touchdowns DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage. That would be their actual TD %. Josh in this category is 5.6% while BOTH Burrow and Lamar sit at 4.8% So at least as far as these 2 other Elite QBs go, Josh's TD % is pretty notably higher than his TO % is worse than Burrow & Lamar, but the conversation is always about Josh being a turnover machine. About an hour ago I added the following comparison of Josh, Mahomes, and Hurts to the other thread (Alpha's thread). So, I thought I would put it in here too, just for added information on the subject: Three QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) [Didn't have time to do more than the 3 QBs, but figured it would be a good picture at least, 3 current top QBs]: Total Attempts (pass + rush) Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost) Turnover % Total TDs (pass + rush) TD % Allen 2,628 74 2.8 162 6.2 Mahomes 2,547 53 2.1 145 5.7 Hurts 1,879 42 2.24 99 5.3 Averages per season (2020-2023): Attempts Total TOs Total TDs Allen 657 18.5 40.5 Mahomes 636.75 13.25 36.25 Hurts 469.75 10.5 24.75 [If you prorate Hurts to the same number of attempts as Josh, his turnovers would rise to 14.7 and his TDs to 34.6.] So, yes, Josh has a lot more turnovers than Mahomes and Hurts overall, but on more attempts and also with more TDs. His TO% is indeed the highest, but so is his TD%. [And as far as attempts go, Mahomes is too close to Josh for it to probably make any significant difference; but if Hurts had 750 more attempts, it is likely that his turnover % would go up from where it is---just by odds]. Josh averages 1.09 turnovers/game and 2.38 TDs/game (net +1.29 TDs) Pat averages .78 turnovers/game and 2.13 TDs/game (net +1.35 TDs) Jalen averages .62 turnovers/game and 1.46 TDs/game (net +.84 TDs) So, in comparison to Mahomes, Josh has averaged 5 more turnovers per season, but also 4 more TDs per season In comparison to Hurts, Josh has averaged 8 more turnovers/season, but also 16 more TDs per season Another possible way to look at it (besides TDs) is number of yards per turnover: Total yards (2020-2023) Total TOs Yards/turnover Allen 18,736 74 253.12 Mahomes 19,098 53 360.34 Hurts 10,911 42 259.79 So, from a yardage standpoint, Mahomes is far out ahead. But, Hurts and Josh are pretty close. All things considered, I think Josh's yardage, TDs, and IT factor far outweigh the high turnover percentage in relation to any QB not named Mahomes. But, boy, if he could get that turnover rate down a bit... Edited November 30, 2023 by folz 1 Quote
FireChans Posted December 1, 2023 Author Posted December 1, 2023 1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said: Ummm... did you actually read the post and look at the chart? He does not have the highest ratio of the players on that chart. That's why I didn't say "the highest," I said "one of the highest." Did you read my post? Quote
GoBills808 Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 You wanna drive a Ferrari don't complain the tires wear out too fast Quote
FireChans Posted December 1, 2023 Author Posted December 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: You wanna drive a Ferrari don't complain the tires wear out too fast Pithy metaphors don't put those Superbowl banners up. 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, FireChans said: Pithy metaphors don't put those Superbowl banners up. What you talking about😂😂we got one hanging in the practice facility as we speak 3 Quote
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 On 11/29/2023 at 9:05 PM, FireChans said: So here's my response to @Alphadawg7's analysis which was hyper-focused on solely interceptions. We are gonna look at QB's since 2018 (since Josh entered the league) and analyze the TD:TO ratio Aaron Rodgers 4.3 (!) Patrick Mahomes 3.2 Russell Wilson 2.9 Tom Brady 2.73 Justin Herbert 2.65 Jalen Hurts 2.5 Deshaun Watson 2.43 Joe Burrow 2.27 Kirk Cousins 2.24 Lamar Jackson 2.23 Dak Prescott 2.23 Josh Allen 2.18 Ryan Tannehill 2.09 Matt Stafford 1.79 Jared Goff 1.64 Matt Ryan 1.64 Derek Carr 1.5 So what does this tell us? Josh's counting numbers are elite, but on a TD:TO ratio, he's near the bottom rung of the upper echelon QB's in the NFL today. Now, some of these QB's are trending downward significantly from who or what they were 4-5 years ago, namely Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine. It’s definitely not going to be a popular post but appreciate the effort. We have some straight up groupie who get upset if you don’t say Allen is the greatest qb ever and is perfect in every way. I think everyone knows how amazing Allen’s ceiling is. But to pretend like it hasn’t been inconsistent, especially this year, is just lying to yourself. and Rodgers is a straight up weirdo now but I think as crazy as his numbers are Aaron Jones has 16 rush tds which could have easily been more tds for him. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2019.htm 1 Quote
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 21 hours ago, par73 said: According to Marino's All-22 analysis, that pass to Davis in the end zone should have been to the outside (if so, biggest error of the game was on Allen). I don't know if that is correct, but if so, two biggest mistakes of the game were on JA. The defender had inside leverage, he’s only going to open on the corner route, in fact was. If it was in breaking it may be an int but definitely harder to get separation Quote
transplantbillsfan Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 5 hours ago, folz said: About an hour ago I added the following comparison of Josh, Mahomes, and Hurts to the other thread (Alpha's thread). So, I thought I would put it in here too, just for added information on the subject: Three QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) [Didn't have time to do more than the 3 QBs, but figured it would be a good picture at least, 3 current top QBs]: Total Attempts (pass + rush) Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost) Turnover % Total TDs (pass + rush) TD % Allen 2,628 74 2.8 162 6.2 Mahomes 2,547 53 2.1 145 5.7 Hurts 1,879 42 2.24 99 5.3 Averages per season (2020-2023): Attempts Total TOs Total TDs Allen 657 18.5 40.5 Mahomes 636.75 13.25 36.25 Hurts 469.75 10.5 24.75 [If you prorate Hurts to the same number of attempts as Josh, his turnovers would rise to 14.7 and his TDs to 34.6.] So, yes, Josh has a lot more turnovers than Mahomes and Hurts overall, but on more attempts and also with more TDs. His TO% is indeed the highest, but so is his TD%. [And as far as attempts go, Mahomes is too close to Josh for it to probably make any significant difference; but if Hurts had 750 more attempts, it is likely that his turnover % would go up from where it is---just by odds]. Josh averages 1.09 turnovers/game and 2.38 TDs/game (net +1.29 TDs) Pat averages .78 turnovers/game and 2.13 TDs/game (net +1.35 TDs) Jalen averages .62 turnovers/game and 1.46 TDs/game (net +.84 TDs) So, in comparison to Mahomes, Josh has averaged 5 more turnovers per season, but also 4 more TDs per season In comparison to Hurts, Josh has averaged 8 more turnovers/season, but also 16 more TDs per season Another possible way to look at it (besides TDs) is number of yards per turnover: Total yards (2020-2023) Total TOs Yards/turnover Allen 18,736 74 253.12 Mahomes 19,098 53 360.34 Hurts 10,911 42 259.79 So, from a yardage standpoint, Mahomes is far out ahead. But, Hurts and Josh are pretty close. All things considered, I think Josh's yardage, TDs, and IT factor far outweigh the high turnover percentage in relation to any QB not named Mahomes. But, boy, if he could get that turnover rate down a bit... Nicely done. Could you do that also for Burrow and Lamar? I think that would cover the top 5 QBs in the NFL over the last few years. 1 Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 On 11/29/2023 at 6:05 PM, FireChans said: But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine. I’m honestly curious how you came to that conclusion. Is 100 almost 200? Is 20 almost 40? At 2.18 :1 that means for every 20 turnovers he has on the season he has roughly 44 TD’s. 44 TD’s also happens to be close to about the exact number of TD’s he has averaged over the last four seasons including this season where he is on pace for 47 TD’s. Is 96 almost 210? Allen has 210 career TD’s and 96 career turnovers. Also consider, not that it matters because the entire premise that 210 is somehow close to 96 is clearly false, but consider that since Allen arrived in 2020 his TD:INT ratio over the last four years is even better at 2.36 Let’s also consider that no player in league history has put up 3+ 40 TD seasons, Allen is on his way to his 4th straight such season. So a record he already holds he will add to. No player has as many total TD’s as Allen since 2020. Which also shows he’s one durable SOB too as a guy like Lamar could probably be close to Allen but he’s missed far too many games due to injury. 1 Quote
Buffalo716 Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: I’m honestly curious how you came to that conclusion. Is 100 almost 200? Is 20 almost 40? At 2.18 :1 that means for every 20 turnovers he has on the season he has roughly 44 TD’s. 44 TD’s also happens to be close to about the exact number of TD’s he has averaged over the last four seasons including this season where he is on pace for 47 TD’s. Is 96 almost 210? Allen has 210 career TD’s and 96 career turnovers. Also consider, not that it matters because the entire premise that 210 is somehow close to 96 is clearly false, but consider that since Allen arrived in 2020 his TD:INT ratio over the last four years is even better at 2.36 Let’s also consider that no player in league history has put up 3+ 40 TD seasons, Allen is on his way to his 4th straight such season. So a record he already holds he will add to. No player has as many total TD’s as Allen since 2020. Which also shows he’s one durable SOB too as a guy like Lamar could probably be close to Allen but he’s missed far too many games due to injury. Agreed. Allen isn't perfect but the pros out weigh cons... He is scoring at an UNPARALLELED pace in NFL history Nobody will be able to keep up Quote
FireChans Posted December 1, 2023 Author Posted December 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: I’m honestly curious how you came to that conclusion. Is 100 almost 200? Is 20 almost 40? At 2.18 :1 that means for every 20 turnovers he has on the season he has roughly 44 TD’s. 44 TD’s also happens to be close to about the exact number of TD’s he has averaged over the last four seasons including this season where he is on pace for 47 TD’s. Is 96 almost 210? Allen has 210 career TD’s and 96 career turnovers. Also consider, not that it matters because the entire premise that 210 is somehow close to 96 is clearly false, but consider that since Allen arrived in 2020 his TD:INT ratio over the last four years is even better at 2.36 Let’s also consider that no player in league history has put up 3+ 40 TD seasons, Allen is on his way to his 4th straight such season. So a record he already holds he will add to. No player has as many total TD’s as Allen since 2020. Which also shows he’s one durable SOB too as a guy like Lamar could probably be close to Allen but he’s missed far too many games due to injury. The conclusion was based on the data in the OP relative to his peers. Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, FireChans said: The conclusion was based on the data in the OP relative to his peers. Your data in the OP is accurate. I have no problems with that. Your conclusion was wrong. Like blatantly wrong. Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 On 11/29/2023 at 7:38 PM, FireChans said: I'm tough on him for lots of reasons. 1. Because he signed a quarter of a billion dollar contract and that comes with level of expectations (i.e. not getting inexplicably outplayed by Zach Wilson and Mac Jones) 2. If he was a bit more consistent week to week and cleaned up a little more of the turnovers, he might just be the undisputed best in the league I'm very happy Josh Allen is our QB. I think he's great. I want him to be the best, just like I want every Bills player to be the best player ever. Because I want to see them win a Superbowl. Honestly, through six season and 4 now of being elite. He's largely the same player he has always been. Which is a freaking bad ass the league has never seen. Brett Favre or John Elway on steroids for lack of a better comp. I think you would enjoy the Bills and life more (even more, not saying you are not) if you just accepted Josh for who he is, which for my money, when you take into account the entirety of the body of work of the last four years and the current QB landscape of the league, is the undisputed second best QB in the league behind Mahomes. Probably the only guy who has the skill set to actually maybe someday be better than Mahomes. But if he doesn't, I'm cool with it. Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 On 11/29/2023 at 7:53 PM, FireChans said: As bad as the defense was in that second half, I think the Bills win that game if Josh doesn't throw that pick tbh. Allen's QBR for the game was like 83. If he doesn't throw the pick, I imagine he has a QBR over 90. What was Hurts QBR for the game? In the 50's? So, one QB to win has to have a QBR over 90. The other QB can win with a QBR in the 50's. Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 On 11/29/2023 at 8:20 PM, FireChans said: He was probably the best player on the field. He could've been better, and I believe if he was, we would've won. Especially against arguably the worst passing defense in the NFL. If that's too high of expectations to you, that's fair. Honestly you need to chill bro. You won't survive the Josh Allen era at this rate. He's only maybe halfway through his career. Quote
folz Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Nicely done. Could you do that also for Burrow and Lamar? I think that would cover the top 5 QBs in the NFL over the last few years. Adding Burrow and Jackson to the comparison per request Five QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) Total Attempts (pass + rush) Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost) Turnover % Total TDs (pass + rush) TD % Allen 2,628 74 2.8 162 6.2 Mahomes 2,547 53 2.1 145 5.7 Hurts 1,879 42 2.24 99 5.3 Burrow 2,078 47 2.26 107 5.15 Jackson 1,934 49 2.53 89 4.60 Average per season (2020-2023): Attempts Total TOs Total TDs Allen 657 18.5 40.5 Mahomes 636.75 13.25 36.25 Hurts 469.75 10.5 24.75 Burrow 519.5 11.75 26.75 Jackson 483.5 12.25 22.25 [If you prorate each QB to the same number of attempts as Josh, it would look like this: Attempts Total TOs Total TDs Allen 657 18.5 40.5 Mahomes 657 13.7 37.4 Hurts 657 14.7 34.6 Burrow 657 14.9 33.8 Jackson 657 16.6 30.2 [I adjusted the following numbers from my first post with the players actual number of games played for 2020-2023] Josh averaged 1.21 turnovers/game and 2.66 TDs/game (net +1.45 TDs) Pat averaged .88 turnovers/game and 2.41 TDs/game (net +1.53 TDs) Jalen averaged .88 turnovers/game and 1.77 TDs/game (net +.89 TDs) Joe averaged .90 turnovers/game and 2.06 TDs/game (net +1.16 TDs) Lamar averaged .96 turnovers/game and 1.75 TDs/game (net +.79 TDs) So, over 2020-2023: In comparison to Mahomes, Josh has averaged 5 more turnovers per season, but also 4 more TDs per season In comparison to Hurts, Josh has averaged 8 more turnovers/season, but also 16 more TDs per season In comparison to Burrow, Josh has averaged 6 more turnovers/season, but also 14 more TDs per season In comparison to Jackson, Josh has averaged 6 more turnovers/season, but also 18 more TDs per season Another possible way to look at it (besides TDs) is number of yards per turnover: Total yards (2020-2023) Total TOs Yards/turnover Allen 18,736 74 253.12 Mahomes 19,098 53 360.34 Hurts 10,911 42 259.79 Burrow 14,688 47 312.51 Jackson 13,609 49 277.73 1 1 Quote
FireChans Posted December 1, 2023 Author Posted December 1, 2023 7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Allen's QBR for the game was like 83. If he doesn't throw the pick, I imagine he has a QBR over 90. What was Hurts QBR for the game? In the 50's? So, one QB to win has to have a QBR over 90. The other QB can win with a QBR in the 50's. The other QB has a better team. 1 Quote
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