Addressing the "Josh Allen is TO machine" narrative

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

There is some excellent young talent on the Texans.  Tank Dell is a very good WR.

 

 

He's right on the level of Stef huh?

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

So on the honor of someone you care about, would you have traded their supporting cast for ours before CJ Stroud got there? 

I don't think many would if you're talking before the season started

 

Everybody in the NFL is extremely talented but I definitely did not see this coming this fast

 

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Buffalo716

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

So on the honor of someone you care about, would you have traded their supporting cast for ours before CJ Stroud got there? 

Dumb question.  I didn't have the information needed to make that choice BEFORE Stroud got there.  Houston is a young team and some of their offensive talent is on the rise.  Get back to me after next year. I suspect there will be a couple of Texan play makers & linemen I would love to have on the Bills.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Dumb question.  I didn't have the information needed to make that choice BEFORE Stroud got there.  Houston is a young team and some of their offensive talent is on the rise.  Get back to me after next year. I suspect there will be a couple of Texan play makers & linemen I would love to have on the Bills.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Haha, so predictable. 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He's right on the level of Stef huh?

I don't recall saying that? Before he got hurt today he did seem to be better then Bills WR's from 2018/2019 including Brown, Benjamin, Holmes, Beasely, Jones and McKenzie.

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Haha, so predictable. 

Are you still mad that I called you out about your unhinged criticisms of Allen?  Even in a comment about Stroud you just can't help yourself taking a cheap shot at Allen on 2BD.

[Bills!Win!]

Mahomes - 22 TD 10 Int

Allen - 24 TD 13 int
 

yet nobody gets upset at Mahomes 

[Drew21PA]

How about

 

mahomes is a turnover machine and last his prime!?

 

looks brutal lately 

[dma0034]

1 minute ago, Drew21PA said:

How about

 

mahomes is a turnover machine and last his prime!?

 

looks brutal lately 

 

Kelce looks like he's lost half a step and their WRs aren't good. Mahomes is finally looking like a normal QB because he his positional players aren't all-world. This season they miss Tyreek Hill badly

[UKBillFan]

3 hours ago, Bills!Win! said:

Mahomes - 22 TD 10 Int

Allen - 24 TD 13 int
 

yet nobody gets upset at Mahomes 

 

Including fumbles, I think Mahomes is only one turnover behind Josh now. Pretty sure there was a gap of two heading into this week.

[dma0034]

9 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Including fumbles, I think Mahomes is only one turnover behind Josh now. Pretty sure there was a gap of two heading into this week.

 

Allen has one more fumble and one more fumble loss. 

 

But still:

Allen: 33 TDs 16 TOs

 

Mahomes: 22 TDs: 12 TOs. 

 

Allen has the higher passer rating and the QBR is 72.4 versus 69.8. 

 

Allen has been the better QB this year without question. Mahomes lucked into an elite defense this year which is why his wins are still high.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

Mahomes threw a terrible int that hurt his team tonight. But please don’t take about how bad Allen’s supporting cast is. Their wrs might be the worst group in the nfl. Rice is the only one who would play on other teams. Awful job by the FO.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Mahomes threw a terrible int that hurt his team tonight. But please don’t take about how bad Allen’s supporting cast is. Their wrs might be the worst group in the nfl. Rice is the only one who would play on other teams. Awful job by the FO.

 

Mahomes still has the better OL, the better RB1, the better play caller, the better defense supporting him, the better FG kicker turning his successful drives into points. His pass catching weapons are also not that much worse than what the Bills are putting on the field this year. As I've said before MVS=Davis and Juston Watson=Shakir. On the whole the supporting cast that Mahomes has from top to bottom, coaching staff to roster, is MUCH better than what Allen has had to deal with.

 

The longer the season goes on, the more confident I feel saying if you put Mahomes on our team this year we would have the exact same record.

[UKBillFan]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mahomes still has the better OL, the better RB1, the better play caller, the better defense supporting him, the better FG kicker turning his successful drives into points. His pass catching weapons are also not that much worse than what the Bills are putting on the field this year. As I've said before MVS=Davis and Juston Watson=Shakir. On the whole the supporting cast that Mahomes has from top to bottom, coaching staff to roster, is MUCH better than what Allen has had to deal with.

 

The longer the season goes on, the more confident I feel saying if you put Mahomes on our team this year we would have the exact same record.

 

And, as much as I love what Kincaid might become, at this stage they're better at TE too.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mahomes still has the better OL, the better RB1, the better play caller, the better defense supporting him, the better FG kicker turning his successful drives into points. His pass catching weapons are also not that much worse than what the Bills are putting on the field this year. As I've said before MVS=Davis and Juston Watson=Shakir. On the whole the supporting cast that Mahomes has from top to bottom, coaching staff to roster, is MUCH better than what Allen has had to deal with.

 

The longer the season goes on, the more confident I feel saying if you put Mahomes on our team this year we would have the exact same record.

Eh, don’t agree with this at all and that’s fine. His running back was a 7th round pick while ours was a 2nd. Also, not sure how their rb is better than ours when ours has more yards from scrimmage: a better ypc; and more yor. He runs harder but that is the only evidence of him being better than Cook this year.
 

Mahomes would kill to have a receiving core of Diggs, Davis, and Kincaid. Davis would easily be his best receiver. Their o line took a big step back because of their OTs and ours has improved. Allen has been pressured less than Mahkmes. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/passing_advanced.htm
 

allen’s highs are as good as qb but I believe Mahomes is the more consistent qb so I would take him, even though he is a top 3. I know taking a 2 time MVPs/ SB winner is very insulting so I apologize in advance. 

[Roundybout]

 

 

🤔🤔🤔

[transplantbillsfan]

On 11/29/2023 at 4:05 PM, FireChans said:

So here's my response to @Alphadawg7's analysis which was hyper-focused on solely interceptions.

 

We are gonna look at QB's since 2018 (since Josh entered the league) and analyze the TD:TO ratio

 

Aaron Rodgers

4.3 (!)

 

Patrick Mahomes

3.2

Russell Wilson

2.9

 

Tom Brady

2.73

 

Justin Herbert

2.65

 

Jalen Hurts

2.5

 

Deshaun Watson

2.43

 

Joe Burrow

2.27

 

Kirk Cousins

2.24

 

Lamar Jackson

2.23

 

Dak Prescott

2.23

 

Josh Allen

2.18

 

Ryan Tannehill

2.09

 

Matt Stafford

1.79

 

Jared Goff

1.64

 

Matt Ryan

1.64

 

Derek Carr

1.5

 

So what does this tell us?  Josh's counting numbers are elite, but on a TD:TO ratio, he's near the bottom rung of the upper echelon QB's in the NFL today.

 

Now, some of these QB's are trending downward significantly from who or what they were 4-5 years ago, namely Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.   But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

 

 

Now do 2023 alone.

 

I was listening to the Locked On Podcast from yesterday with Joe Marino, who had Nate Geary on as a guest.  Anyone not familiar with Geary... dude knows his stuff.

 

Geary said that Josh Allen (as of yesterday) has the 2nd best TD:TO ratio in 2023 and it's pretty much ignored by everyone.

 

You did the math since 2018.  Do the math for this year alone.

 

Pretty much shatters your narrative as far as 2023 goes.

[GoBills808]

17 hours ago, Roundybout said:

 

 

🤔🤔🤔

Louder

[oldmanfan]

48 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Now do 2023 alone.

 

I was listening to the Locked On Podcast from yesterday with Joe Marino, who had Nate Geary on as a guest.  Anyone not familiar with Geary... dude knows his stuff.

 

Geary said that Josh Allen (as of yesterday) has the 2nd best TD:TO ratio in 2023 and it's pretty much ignored by everyone.

 

You did the math since 2018.  Do the math for this year alone.

 

Pretty much shatters your narrative as far as 2023 goes.

And it could be even better if he hadn’t thrown the picks.  Why is it so GD hard for folks to get the concept that, as great a QB as Josh is, you can always improve, and in his case it would be by throwing less interceptions? 

[transplantbillsfan]

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

And it could be even better if he hadn’t thrown the picks.  Why is it so GD hard for folks to get the concept that, as great a QB as Josh is, you can always improve, and in his case it would be by throwing less interceptions? 

 

Yes... but how many egregious interceptions has Josh actually had this year?  I'm talking interceptions that were just terrible decision making and/or terrible throw?

 

5?

 

6 at most?

 

Hail Mary INT vs. the Eagles certainly doesn't count.

 

Gabe Davis's drop vs. the Broncos in the Red Zone turned INT doesn't count.

 

The bomb he threw to Diggs near the goal line earlier this season (Jags???) wasn't a great throw, but it wasn't a bad throw.  It was in Diggs's hands... he just didn't fight to hold onto the ball like he normally does.

 

The sheer number of dropbacks Allen has had to pass should probably also be taken into consideration.  Allen has the 4th most passing attempts in the NFL.  3 of those QBs ahead of Allen also have double digit INTs.  If the plays Allen scrambled on were taken into consideration, he probably jumps to #2 or #3 in terms of dropbacks in 2023.

 

Allen could be better when it comes to Interceptions, but the narrative nationally of him regarding his turnovers is pretty unfair.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yes... but how many egregious interceptions has Josh actually had this year?  I'm talking interceptions that were just terrible decision making and/or terrible throw?

 

5?

 

6 at most?

 

Hail Mary INT vs. the Eagles certainly doesn't count.

 

Gabe Davis's drop vs. the Broncos in the Red Zone turned INT doesn't count.

 

The bomb he threw to Diggs near the goal line earlier this season (Jags???) wasn't a great throw, but it wasn't a bad throw.  It was in Diggs's hands... he just didn't fight to hold onto the ball like he normally does.

 

The sheer number of dropbacks Allen has had to pass should probably also be taken into consideration.  Allen has the 4th most passing attempts in the NFL.  3 of those QBs ahead of Allen also have double digit INTs.  If the plays Allen scrambled on were taken into consideration, he probably jumps to #2 or #3 in terms of dropbacks in 2023.

 

Allen could be better when it comes to Interceptions, but the narrative nationally of him regarding his turnovers is pretty unfair.

All this is rationalization.  Teams that win the turnover battle win the majority of times.  ergo the less turnovers the better.  Josh has thrown his share of picks.  He's a great QB but it's an area he can improve.  It's OK to say this without being thought of as a Josh hater or such.