Addressing the "Josh Allen is TO machine" narrative

[FireChans]

So here's my response to @Alphadawg7's analysis which was hyper-focused on solely interceptions.

 

We are gonna look at QB's since 2018 (since Josh entered the league) and analyze the TD:TO ratio

 

Aaron Rodgers

4.3 (!)

 

Patrick Mahomes

3.2

Russell Wilson

2.9

 

Tom Brady

2.73

 

Justin Herbert

2.65

 

Jalen Hurts

2.5

 

Deshaun Watson

2.43

 

Joe Burrow

2.27

 

Kirk Cousins

2.24

 

Lamar Jackson

2.23

 

Dak Prescott

2.23

 

Josh Allen

2.18

 

Ryan Tannehill

2.09

 

Matt Stafford

1.79

 

Jared Goff

1.64

 

Matt Ryan

1.64

 

Derek Carr

1.5

 

So what does this tell us?  Josh's counting numbers are elite, but on a TD:TO ratio, he's near the bottom rung of the upper echelon QB's in the NFL today.

 

Now, some of these QB's are trending downward significantly from who or what they were 4-5 years ago, namely Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.   But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

 

[Mike in Horseheads]

Why didn't you just reply in his thread instead of starting a new one?

[Success]

'kay.  I actually like the other thread better.

 

[Warcodered]

Take off 2018 and he's right below Watson.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Why didn't you just reply in his thread instead of starting a new one?

He told me not to, his topic was only about interceptions.

[Scott7975]

Rodgers ratio is insane.

[GoBills808]

Last 3 years would be more predictive imo

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Last 3 years would be more predictive imo

Starting from 2020 gets you 2.32

[freddyjj]

@FireChansDoes this include all TDs ie Rushing and passing and also fumbles ?

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Last 3 years would be more predictive imo

Got it!  Gonna do an abridged list in order of total TDs

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-turnovers-by-a-qb-since-2020

 

Allen 2.36

Mahomes 3.02

Herbert 2.65

Kirk 2.24

Rodgers 4.37 (!)

Brady 2.7

Wilson 2.4

Burrow 2.27

Dak 2.22

Hurts 2.58

Lamar 1.89 (oof)

2 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

@FireChansDoes this include all TDs ie Rushing and passing and also fumbles ?

Yes

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Got it!  Gonna do an abridged list in order of total TDs

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-turnovers-by-a-qb-since-2020

 

Allen 2.36

Mahomes 3.02

Herbert 2.65

Kirk 2.24

Rodgers 4.37 (!)

Brady 2.7

Wilson 2.4

Burrow 2.27

Dak 2.22

Hurts 2.58

Lamar 1.89 (oof)

Yes

are you including playoffs or no

[Warcodered]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

Doesn't really support the narrative this year that they've been saying it though, when Mahomes this specific year sits at 1.91, Hurts is at 2.07, and Tua is at eeesh 1.57,

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

are you including playoffs or no

Doesn't seem like it or if they are that's a coincidence that the numbers ended up the same.

 

In the playoffs he's 3.17

Edited November 30, 2023 by Warcodered

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

are you including playoffs or no

It appears not.

 

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Doesn't really support the narrative this year that they've been saying it though, when Mahomes this specific year sits at 1.91, Hurts is at 2.07, and Tua is at eeesh 1.57,

Josh is at 2.06 which is quite a bit worse than his average over the last 3 seasons.

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Josh is at 2.06 which is quite a bit worse than his average over the last 3 seasons.

Right but the narrative is about Josh this year not any of the others but he's only .01 below Hurts who is now the MVP favorite. If they were saying it about all them this year it would make since but they're not, they're hyper focused on Allen who by this metric isn't doing the worst this year not even close.

[GoBills808]

This tracks

 

I actually think this + some derivation of usage like %of total offensive production (yards and TDs altho that would be counting TDs twice I suppose) would be a relatively meaningful metric

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

32 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Why didn't you just reply in his thread instead of starting a new one?

Because for these trolls bashing Allen knows no limits.

 

 

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Because for these trolls bashing Allen knows no limits.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If that is the comparison you want to see, then go do the work and post a thread on it.  You don't need to hijack another thread and try and get someone else to do the work for you that took the time to talk about something else.  

 

[CaptnCoke11]

He turns the ball over too much.  Don’t care about ratios or whatever metric people try to downplay it with.  Gotta take the good with the bad with Josh.  It’s far more good just wish he could cut back a little on the turnovers 

[BillsFan130]

Every time I’ve seen your posts, you seem to rip on Josh.

 

You even somewhat excused the defensive performance on Sunday saying the eagles had a lot of short fields and put a lot of blame on Josh for that one INT. (Even though he was the best player in football that week)

 

So my question to you is:

 

Do you not think he’s a good QB and where do you rank him in terms of QB?

 

I just don’t get where you’re going with this constant crusade on Josh so I’m genuinely curious lol 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by BillsFan130

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Every time I’ve seen your posts, you seem to rip on Josh.

 

You even somewhat excused the defensive performance on Sunday saying the eagles had a lot of short fields and put a lot of blame on Josh for that one INT. (Even though he was the best player in football that week)

 

So my question to you is:

 

Do you not think he’s a good QB and where do you rank him in terms of QB?

 

I just don’t get where you’re going with this constant crusade on Josh so I’m genuinely curious lol 

 

 

I think he's at least a top 3 QB and a top 1A/1B QB when he's on his game.