Is Josh Allen really as INT prone as being made out to be? Spoiler Alert - NO

[Aussie Joe]

37 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Get rid of Gabe Davis as I believe the majority of the picks happen when throwing to him. It seems outside of his league leading WR blocking Davis is holding back the offense in a significant way.

Davis is gone next year 

 

Possible escape goat alert 

[Alphadawg7]

On 11/30/2023 at 1:22 PM, folz said:

Look, we all want Josh to cut down on turnovers, but even with the turnovers, his positives way supersede his negatives.

 

Nice OP Alpha...I think you proved your point regarding Josh's interceptions pretty well. I just thought that I would satisfy some of your threads' critics with some stats that include, yes, FUMBLES/total turnovers:

 

 

Three QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) [Didn't have time to do more than the 3 QBs, but figured it would be a good picture at least, 3 current top QBs]:

                         Total Attempts (pass + rush)              Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost)             Turnover %        Total TDs (pass + rush)          TD %               

Allen                                2,628                                                        74                                                2.8                                162                             6.2                    

Mahomes                        2,547                                                        53                                                2.1                                145                             5.7

Hurts                               1,879                                                         42                                                2.24                              99                              5.3

 

Averages per season (2020-2023):

                               Attempts               Total TOs            Total TDs

Allen                          657                        18.5                     40.5

Mahomes                  636.75                   13.25                  36.25

Hurts                         469.75                    10.5                    24.75

 

So, yes, Josh has a lot more turnovers than Mahomes and Hurts overall, but on more attempts and also with more TDs. His TO% is indeed the highest, but so is his TD%. [And as far as attempts go, Mahomes is too close to Josh for it to probably make any significant difference; but if Hurts had 750 more attempts, it is likely that his turnover % would go up from where it is---just by odds].

 

Josh averages 1.09 turnovers/game and 2.38 TDs/game

Pat averages .78 turnovers/game and 2.13 TDs/game

Jalen averages .62 turnovers/game and 1.46 TDs/game

 

So, in comparison to Mahomes, Josh has 5 more turnovers per season, and 4 more TDs per season

In comparison to Hurts, Josh has 8 more turnovers/season, but 16 more TDs per season

 

Do the turnovers hurt more than the TDs help? You tell me. But obviously, if Josh could cut down on the turnovers, he would be even more unstoppable.

 

 

 

Interesting, and thanks.  Good work here

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 11/29/2023 at 1:04 PM, Matt_In_NH said:

I make this argument all the time but people dont want to hear it.  However his INT% is going up not down.  This year his INT rate is up to 3.0% which is too high.  In 2020 it was 1.7% which should be close to his target.  

 

Same for Mahomes. Same for a lot of QB's this year actually. It's been a pretty big talking point this year that defenses are back more than ever. Hurts, Mahomes, Tua and Allen all have higher INT% this year compared to last year.

 

You are correct though that Allen has had a steady climb in his INT% the last three seasons. 

 

His fumbles are way down this year. Only four so far this year through 12 games when he had 13 last year in 16 games.  And I don't think that is just a case of him having half the rushing attempts he would on a normal season the last three years. A good majority of Allen's fumbles would come from center/snap exchange, hand offs or pressures behind the line of scrimmage. Those plays still happen every game but he is fumbling the ball less so far. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 11/30/2023 at 9:59 AM, FireChans said:

Josh doesn’t lead in ANY/A. Not even close.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-average-net-yard-per-attempt-since-2020

 

You continue to have odd definitions of "close" and "almost" 

 

In one thread you claim 20 turnovers is almost 44 TD's and 96 turnovers is almost 210 TD's despite the larger numbers being over 100% greater than the smaller. numbers.

 

In this thread, 2,141 (Allen) is not even close to 2,251 (Herbert) despite just a 5% difference. Mahomes is third by the way at 2,228. 

Edited December 2, 2023 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Dillenger4]

I think Josh is awesome but he does have a tendency to throw interceptions at the worst time possible. Example, late in a game when the score is close when we are driving. All of the stats above are useless actually. It's like defending a hockey player saying they are a great goal scorer with lot's of goals but they scored two hatricks in a row 10 games ago and nothing in between. Josh is great but let's face it - he has the most turnovers in NFL history. Fact. If he cuts down on the TO we are winning. Joe has him in tune it seems. Looking forward to the Chiefs game! We win that and it's on!

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

You continue to have odd definitions of "close" and "almost" 

 

In one thread you claim 20 turnovers is almost 44 TD's and 96 turnovers is almost 210 TD's despite the larger numbers being over 100% greater than the smaller. numbers.

 

In this thread, 2,141 (Allen) is not even close to 2,251 (Herbert) despite just a 5% difference. Mahomes is third by the way at 2,228. 

You are reading the graphic wrong. You need to sort by average.

 

Josh Allen is 17th btw. I consider that "not even close" to first in a 32 team league.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

I think Josh is awesome but he does have a tendency to throw interceptions at the worst time possible. Example, late in a game when the score is close when we are driving. All of the stats above are useless actually. It's like defending a hockey player saying they are a great goal scorer with lot's of goals but they scored two hatricks in a row 10 games ago and nothing in between. Josh is great but let's face it - he has the most turnovers in NFL history. Fact. If he cuts down on the TO we are winning. Joe has him in tune it seems. Looking forward to the Chiefs game! We win that and it's on!

 

By the same standard he also has the most TD's in NFL history. And he's pretty consistent with his TD's (and turnovers). It's not case of Allen racking up a couple 5 TD games and then having a streak of 1 TD games in between. 

[Dillenger4]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

By the same standard he also has the most TD's in NFL history. And he's pretty consistent with his TD's (and turnovers). It's not case of Allen racking up a couple 5 TD games and then having a streak of 1 TD games in between. 

This year it is... but I hear ya. Point was, you can use stats to piant it any way you want. we are 6-6, not on Josh but some might be. But I feel he is back! Let's hope so.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You are reading the graphic wrong. You need to sort by average.

 

Josh Allen is 17th btw. I consider that "not even close" to first in a 32 team league.

 

 

I'm not sure that is correct Chan. AVG in that spreadsheet is simply YPA, i checked.

 

YPA is different than ANY/A

[FireChans]

32 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I'm not sure that is correct Chan. AVG in that spreadsheet is simply YPA, i checked.

 

YPA is different than ANY/A

You're right! Dang.

34 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I'm not sure that is correct Chan. AVG in that spreadsheet is simply YPA, i checked.

 

YPA is different than ANY/A

 

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

You're right! Dang.

What about this one?

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-net-yard-per-attempt-since-2020-of-quarterbacks

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

17 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You're right! Dang.

 

What about this one?

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-net-yard-per-attempt-since-2020-of-quarterbacks

 

 

Not sure how the same question is asked and two different answers result. 

 

Even on this second one Allen is like 5th overall after we adjust for games played (minimum 45 to include Dak) throwing out the QB's who have played far less games. And still of the four ahead of Allen; Dak (45), Rodgers (50) and Tua (47) still have a fairly significantly smaller sample size than both Mahomes and Allen at 60 and 61 games respectively.

[GoBills808]

Allen's 2023 campaign thus far:

 

1st in Value vs Avg

4th in CPOE

2nd in succes rate

1st in 538 ELOmodel

2nd in total EPA

1st in Win%added

 

this is the statistical profile of the best QB in the league

 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2023 by GoBills808
changed from mvp to best qb in the league because mvp is record dependent

[FireChans]

36 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Allen's 2023 campaign thus far:

 

1st in Value vs Avg

4th in CPOE

2nd in succes rate

1st in 538 ELOmodel

2nd in total EPA

1st in Win%added

 

this is the statistical profile of the best QB in the league

 

 

 

Would mean more compared to his peers to see how they rank.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Would mean more compared to his peers to see how they rank.

that is compared to his peers

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

that is compared to his peers

No, ,what I'm saying if it's:

 

Josh:

1st in Value vs Avg

4th in CPOE

2nd in succes rate

1st in 538 ELOmodel

2nd in total EPA

1st in Win%added

 

Pat:

2nd in Value vs Avg

1st in CPOE

1st in succes rate

2nd in 538 ELOmodel

1st in total EPA

2nd in Win%added

 

then there's a debate there imo.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

No, ,what I'm saying if it's:

 

Josh:

1st in Value vs Avg

4th in CPOE

2nd in succes rate

1st in 538 ELOmodel

2nd in total EPA

1st in Win%added

 

Pat:

2nd in Value vs Avg

1st in CPOE

1st in succes rate

2nd in 538 ELOmodel

1st in total EPA

2nd in Win%added

 

then there's a debate there imo.

Mahomes:

 

2nd in Value vs Avg

11th in CPOE

5th in success rate

3rd in ELO

6th total EPA

9th in Win%added

[FireChans]

On 12/1/2023 at 1:15 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nonsense. If people were fascinated by whatever they see flashing on TV, beer commercials would be bigger than football. The reason people are interested in INTs is that they are huge in terms of whether a team wins or loses. Turnover ratios are 

 

It's "behind the curtain in your posts and the posts of the other folks like you who want to ignore it.

 

TDs per game aren't nearly as big because a rushing TD is as good as a passing TD. A QB can have zero TDs and still have a great game and the offense can still be extremely productive. INTs are turnovers. Sorry, the two are not even close. A high TDs per game is generally good, but a low one doesn't necessarily mean anything bad.

 

INTs can and often do turn games around. That's why people focus on them.

 

As for good in some categories and bad in others? Yeah. That's why a balanced view is best. And yet unless reminded you only talk about the good ones. You make fun of people who try to look at both the bad and the good. You've got just as much tunnel vision as the folks who think only of INTs.

 

 

One isn't much.

 

If he only had one, that'd be very little.

 

But his figure isn't "one." It's one more than the second-worst guy in the league. That's a lot, which is why nobody else has equalled it.

 

You have to look also at how productive he is, (very productive) but having the most turnovers is a very bad thing.

To bring this topic back to INT's:

 

From an overall INT% metric, Josh's 3% this season puts him in the company of Desmond RIdder (not an NFL QB) and only slight better than Aidan O'Connell and Mac Jones.

[Matt_In_NH]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Same for Mahomes. Same for a lot of QB's this year actually. It's been a pretty big talking point this year that defenses are back more than ever. Hurts, Mahomes, Tua and Allen all have higher INT% this year compared to last year.

 

You are correct though that Allen has had a steady climb in his INT% the last three seasons. 

 

His fumbles are way down this year. Only four so far this year through 12 games when he had 13 last year in 16 games.  And I don't think that is just a case of him having half the rushing attempts he would on a normal season the last three years. A good majority of Allen's fumbles would come from center/snap exchange, hand offs or pressures behind the line of scrimmage. Those plays still happen every game but he is fumbling the ball less so far. 

Except Mahomes 2023 INT% is less than Allen's career percentage.  Mahomes INT% is less this year than Allen;s was last year also.  Mahomes has less INT's than Allen in every year except one in which they tied and Allen played 6 less games.  Over their careers Allen has lost 26 fumbles in 89 games to Mahomes 12 fumbles in 91 games.   The facts are that Allen turns the ball over at a higher rate than his elite peers and he is capable of decreasing them and he should work at that.  That does not mean Allen sucks or anything, I think it is overblown to an extent but it is true.  It is also true that he has more total touchdowns than anyone else the last 3.5 years, the last game they actually said that, usually that is never mentioned.