Thurman#1 Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: How could I possibly ignore the INTs lol You bring them up every chance you can When people want to ignore them and pooh-pooh them, yeah, I do. I want people to look at things in a balanced, reasonable way. I also point out that he had a terrific game, in the same post, if I remember correctly. Stop telling people to ignore what's behind the curtain and they'll stop being fascinated by it. Quote
FireChans Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 11 hours ago, Rew said: While including all turnovers makes sense, any total turnover count still hides some data. Using the same list that you provided, I tried to come up with a fair look at how likely someone is to turnover the ball and view on how likely they are to score a touchdown. Basically, the combination of sacks/rushes/receptions turn into "other touches". Fumble rate is lost fumbles on those touches. turnover rate is ints and fumbles out of all plays where the QB didn't hand off the ball (throw/scramble/rush/receive). touchdown rate is on the same basis as turnover rate. This is still not perfect, as it doesn't account for kneeldowns and arm punts, but more complete then any of the other views bouncing around today. I also wish I could find a publicly available breakdown of fumbles lost on sacks vs fumbles lost rushing, but no luck. Out of this grouping of active players Allen is tasked with the 2nd highest total touch count (43 times per game). Allen is in the elite of the league (Rodgers/Mahomes/Allen) with how frequently their touches turn into touchdowns. Allen's touches result in a turnover 2.4% of the time, which is on the higher end of the 2-2.5% grouping. I ran numbers for a few other active players not on this list and they tend to be 2.5% on average with several in the 3-4% range and a few under 2%. As an example of high turnovers on active players, Winston is at 3.7%. In conclusion, Allen touches the ball more times per game than most active quarterbacks, he scores touchdowns at a frequency that puts him at an elite level, and he turns over the ball around league average but at a higher frequency than many of the other elite players. In short, he is not at all representative of a "turnover machine", but he is also not a role model on elite ball security. 18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: It doesn't matter to these folks They already don't care that Allen scores the most points in the league, or generates the most offensive value, or has one of the highest CPOE, or any number of metrics that put him at the top of the NFL rn...they also won't be satisfied if he isn't also lowest turnover rate in the league Nothing but being at the absolute top of every statistical category, every single game of every single season is acceptable I just want Josh to either be better than Mahomes at TD/touch or TO/touch. can’t be the best in the league and worse in most of the big categories. 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: When people want to ignore them and pooh-pooh them, yeah, I do. I want people to look at things in a balanced, reasonable way. I also point out that he had a terrific game, in the same post, if I remember correctly. Stop telling people to ignore what's behind the curtain and they'll stop being fascinated by it. People are fascinated by whatever they see flashing on TV And lmfao that the INTs are the part that's 'behind the curtain' 2 minutes ago, FireChans said: I just want Josh to either be better than Mahomes at TD/touch or TO/touch. can’t be the best in the league and worse in most of the big categories. How about TDs/game And he is at the top of most important categories and worst in very few Quote
FireChans Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: People are fascinated by whatever they see flashing on TV And lmfao that the INTs are the part that's 'behind the curtain' How about TDs/game And he is at the top of most important categories and worst in very few He’s near the top. I want him to be the best. TD/touch is probably the best efficiency metric you can have for a QB. Not sure TD/game would be more relevant. Quote
GoBills808 Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 1 minute ago, FireChans said: He’s near the top. I want him to be the best. TD/touch is probably the best efficiency metric you can have for a QB. Not sure TD/game would be more relevant. Best efficiency metrics already exist Among them any/a, 538 nflELO, EPA, value over avg etc etc Quote
FireChans Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Best efficiency metrics already exist Among them any/a, 538 nflELO, EPA, value over avg etc etc Josh doesn’t lead in ANY/A. Not even close. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-average-net-yard-per-attempt-since-2020 Edited November 30, 2023 by FireChans Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted November 30, 2023 Author Posted November 30, 2023 52 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: Not everything, hell, not even this evidence suggests that Dorsey was a major issue for this. It just doesn't. Hi first very significant rise in percentage, a jump of 0.6 percent, happened under Daboll. Between Daboll's third and fourth years, Allen went from 7th best in the league at 1.6% to 18th best. Again, under Daboll, a major drop. If Dorsey were the problem, his first year, when he took over from Daboll would see a major jump. But that's not what happened. He only got 0.2% worse. The difference between Dorsey's first and second years would not be significant if Dorsey were the main part of the problem. But in fact he went up 0.5%. What all this tells us is that the ups and downs do NOT correlate well at all with the difference between Daboll and Dorsey. It tells us that it's likely something else. There's likely some effect from the OC, absolutely. But the biggest changes happened between two years when Daboll was coordinator and then again between two years when Dorsey was. Something else is at play. Perhaps several things. I have a guess, myself. Remember early in his career, when in the offseason Josh would go to work on improving one aspect of his game that needed work? Remember? One year it was deep ball accuracy, which improved greatly the next year. The year before that it was mechanics and footwork and using the turn of his torso to generate force. After that it was touch and accuracy on short passes, which also greatly improved. Remember that? What did he work on the last couple of offseasons? We didn't hear much of anything. In his interview with that Dallas podcast he said this offseason he's just relaxing, getting healthy. Whisky was mentioned. This was the best way for him, he said. The switch in girlfriends was not really mentioned, but dating a movie star isn't concentrating on touch and accuracy on short passes. Josh didn't used to get out-worked. These days, he is. Again, the difference between Daboll's last year and Dorsey's first was statistically pretty much insignificant. 2.3% and 2.5%. If that were where the problem was, that's where we'd see the effects hit. We don't. 2022 higher INT % than 2021. 2023 even higher INT % than 2022. Dorsey was the OC in 2022 and 2023 and it got worse both years. In 2 games immediately following Dorseys dismissal Offense is avg 13 PPG more than Dorseys final 6. During those 6 games, Dorsey led offense faced the weakest stretch of oppoosition on our schedule. Brady led offense after being thrown in mid season is avg 33 PPG and faced much tougher defenses in Jets and Philly. The Offense has not scored less than 32, 7 points more than the highest output in Dorsey's final 6 games. VS Jets, Dorsey led offense was 1-2 and averaged 17.7 PPG...Under Brady, we scored 32 even though we took our foot off the gas for the entire 4th quarter in a blowout. If you don't count the hail mary INT, Josh has 1 INT in 82 actual pass attempts which is a 1.2 INT% substantially lower than under Dorsey. Even if you count the hail mary, he is still significantly lower these 2 games than he was with Dorsey this season. There is no dismissing Dorsey from being a bit part of the problem. Doesn't mean there were not other mistakes or issues...but all teams have those by all players. But when the OC, or any coach, is fundamentally an issue then you will have inconsistency and players won't be in position to play their best. And that was the biggest issue with Dorsey, he was in over his head as a first time OC. Very well might learn what he needs to and grow and become a great OC one day, but he was hurting Allen and this offense and there is really no way refute that. 1 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, FireChans said: Josh doesn’t lead in ANY/A. Not even close. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-average-net-yard-per-attempt-since-2020 Talking this year Quote
bigK14094 Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 Josh INT's are in several categories. 1. Bad throws...every Qb has. 2. Bad judgements every QB has 3. Bad breaks every QB has 4. Loose his head and tries to hard. This one Josh does....but the Jets game stands out because of desperation throws that had no chance. This one he can work on. I would not want to see him stop being aggressive so I am not a big critic of the total INT level. Fix the bad head moments by playing in control. But, the fumbles....that need work as it is all head. The muffed handoff to Cook was on Josh. Loosing the ball running or getting sacked needs improvement. All fixable. GO JOSH! Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted November 30, 2023 Author Posted November 30, 2023 1 minute ago, bigK14094 said: Josh INT's are in several categories. 1. Bad throws...every Qb has. 2. Bad judgements every QB has 3. Bad breaks every QB has 4. Loose his head and tries to hard. This one Josh does....but the Jets game stands out because of desperation throws that had no chance. This one he can work on. I would not want to see him stop being aggressive so I am not a big critic of the total INT level. Fix the bad head moments by playing in control. But, the fumbles....that need work as it is all head. The muffed handoff to Cook was on Josh. Loosing the ball running or getting sacked needs improvement. All fixable. GO JOSH! Kurt Warner did a big film break down on the Jets INT's and he felt that 2 of them were on the either play design or the WR's running poor routes because the spacing between WR's was key to why those INT's happened. And we saw multiple times throughout the season where spacing on routes were causing issues with Dorsey. Then you add in Bills are 1-2 vs Jets (both losses to Wilson at QB) and avg 17.7 PPG with Dorsey at OC in 3 games never scoring over 20 and you see Brady led offense drop 32 in a game we probably score 40-50 had we not taken the foot off the gas for more than a quarter in a blow out win and it just lends even more credence to Dorsey being a big factor on the week 1 INT issues too. Quote
julian Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 1 hour ago, GoBills808 said: It doesn't matter to these folks They already don't care that Allen scores the most points in the league, or generates the most offensive value, or has one of the highest CPOE, or any number of metrics that put him at the top of the NFL rn...they also won't be satisfied if he isn't also lowest turnover rate in the league Nothing but being at the absolute top of every statistical category, every single game of every single season is acceptable Yeah it’s craziness, I’m probably defending Allen in a thread 2 or 3 times a week but it could be 2 or 3 a day if I didn’t force my self to just stay out of the fray. I’ve never enjoyed watching a Bills player as much as I have watching Allen in my 30+ years of fandom. He’s on my short list of greatest NFL entertainment of all time in no particular order. Barry Sanders Josh Allen Brett Favre 1 Quote
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) 22 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said: He leads the league in turnovers every year. That’s not a coincidence. It’s facts He doesnt even lead the league in turnovers the current year when you posted this 😂 some ‘facts’ you’ve got lol Edited November 30, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan Quote
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) 17 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said: Just last year Dak threw more INT's then Allen playing in 5 less games. What I find ridiculous is these trolling cretins make you have to defend A BUFFALO BILLS QB who is one of the top 2 QB's in the NFL on a Buffalo Bills message board. What the FREAKING hell is that? Player comparisons across teams are ridiculous enough in general…Josh is carrying more of the offensive load than any other player on any team and it’s not like his receivers are getting large amounts of separation consistently. Comparing his numbers on a stat sheet to mahomes just doesn’t even feel super relevant to me Edited November 30, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan 1 Quote
90sBills Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 25 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said: He doesnt even lead the league in turnovers the current year when you posted this 😂 some ‘facts’ you’ve got lol He led turnovers in 2022. He was leading this season as well until MNF when Dobbs threw 4 ints to overtake him. I have faith in our boy to get back the lead before season’s end. He seems very committed to throwing it to the other team. Quote
TheyCallMeAndy Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) On 11/29/2023 at 3:27 PM, WotAGuy said: I feel like statistical comparisons are more relevant against his peers than ex players. The game has changed so much, even since Brees started playing. True, but Allen’s INT numbers aren’t drastically worse than his pass-attempt peers. Sadly this bad season has inflated his numbers. His TO numbers have been inflated due to a large about of lost fumbles, which is down to 3 this year (and still somehow leads the NFL). It sounds so lazy, but I really feel after listening to countless breakdowns… Allen’s TO issues are largely bad luck. I can’t even think of the last dropped INT. Edited November 30, 2023 by TheyCallMeAndy Quote
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, 90sBills said: He led turnovers in 2022. He was leading this season as well until MNF when Dobbs threw 4 ints to overtake him. I have faith in our boy to get back the lead before season’s end. He seems very committed to throwing it to the other team. He led by a whopping 1 last year and if josh dobbs ceased to exist he’d be leading by a whopping 1 this year with an extra game played on a lot of guys that are 2 behind 😂. That’s far from a guarantee he’ll lead it again the end of this year. Y’all make it sound like he’s got 10 more than anyone else but really he’s right in line with a bunch of guys that get far less touches Edited November 30, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan Quote
90sBills Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said: He led by a whopping 1 last year and if josh dobbs ceased to exist he’d be leading by a whopping 1 this year with an extra game played on a lot of guys that are 2 behind 😂. That’s far from a guarantee he’ll lead it again the end of this year. Y’all make it sound like he’s got 10 more than anyone else but really he’s right in line with a bunch of guys that get far less touches I stated he led last season (fact) and given patterns this year he most likely will this season (tbd). Nothing more than that. Bolded part is just your assumption. Quote
folz Posted November 30, 2023 Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) Look, we all want Josh to cut down on turnovers, but even with the turnovers, his positives way supersede his negatives. Nice OP Alpha...I think you proved your point regarding Josh's interceptions pretty well. I just thought that I would satisfy some of your threads' critics with some stats that include, yes, FUMBLES/total turnovers: Three QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) [Didn't have time to do more than the 3 QBs, but figured it would be a good picture at least, 3 current top QBs]: Total Attempts (pass + rush) Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost) Turnover % Total TDs (pass + rush) TD % Allen 2,628 74 2.8 162 6.2 Mahomes 2,547 53 2.1 145 5.7 Hurts 1,879 42 2.24 99 5.3 Averages per season (2020-2023): Attempts Total TOs Total TDs Allen 657 18.5 40.5 Mahomes 636.75 13.25 36.25 Hurts 469.75 10.5 24.75 So, yes, Josh has a lot more turnovers than Mahomes and Hurts overall, but on more attempts and also with more TDs. His TO% is indeed the highest, but so is his TD%. [And as far as attempts go, Mahomes is too close to Josh for it to probably make any significant difference; but if Hurts had 750 more attempts, it is likely that his turnover % would go up from where it is---just by odds]. Josh averages 1.09 turnovers/game and 2.38 TDs/game Pat averages .78 turnovers/game and 2.13 TDs/game Jalen averages .62 turnovers/game and 1.46 TDs/game So, in comparison to Mahomes, Josh has 5 more turnovers per season, and 4 more TDs per season In comparison to Hurts, Josh has 8 more turnovers/season, but 16 more TDs per season Do the turnovers hurt more than the TDs help? You tell me. But obviously, if Josh could cut down on the turnovers, he would be even more unstoppable. Edited November 30, 2023 by folz 1 Quote
Thurman#1 Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 12 hours ago, GoBills808 said: People are fascinated by whatever they see flashing on TV And lmfao that the INTs are the part that's 'behind the curtain' How about TDs/game And he is at the top of most important categories and worst in very few Nonsense. If people were fascinated by whatever they see flashing on TV, beer commercials would be bigger than football. The reason people are interested in INTs is that they are huge in terms of whether a team wins or loses. Turnover ratios are It's "behind the curtain in your posts and the posts of the other folks like you who want to ignore it. TDs per game aren't nearly as big because a rushing TD is as good as a passing TD. A QB can have zero TDs and still have a great game and the offense can still be extremely productive. INTs are turnovers. Sorry, the two are not even close. A high TDs per game is generally good, but a low one doesn't necessarily mean anything bad. INTs can and often do turn games around. That's why people focus on them. As for good in some categories and bad in others? Yeah. That's why a balanced view is best. And yet unless reminded you only talk about the good ones. You make fun of people who try to look at both the bad and the good. You've got just as much tunnel vision as the folks who think only of INTs. 9 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said: He led by a whopping 1 last year and if josh dobbs ceased to exist he’d be leading by a whopping 1 this year with an extra game played on a lot of guys that are 2 behind 😂. That’s far from a guarantee he’ll lead it again the end of this year. Y’all make it sound like he’s got 10 more than anyone else but really he’s right in line with a bunch of guys that get far less touches One isn't much. If he only had one, that'd be very little. But his figure isn't "one." It's one more than the second-worst guy in the league. That's a lot, which is why nobody else has equalled it. You have to look also at how productive he is, (very productive) but having the most turnovers is a very bad thing. Quote
Dr.Sack Posted December 1, 2023 Posted December 1, 2023 Get rid of Gabe Davis as I believe the majority of the picks happen when throwing to him. It seems outside of his league leading WR blocking Davis is holding back the offense in a significant way. 1 Quote
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