Is Josh Allen really as INT prone as being made out to be? Spoiler Alert - NO

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

He leads the league in turnovers every year. That’s not a coincidence. It’s facts

Just last year Dak threw more INT's then Allen playing in 5 less games.

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

LMAO you are kidding right?  You can google "Josh Allen Interceptions" and find a long list too.  And who does that?  Turn on any of the mainstream sports shows and podcasts and they are always talking about interceptions.  

 

This is why its pointless to start threads on this board...honestly, prob be my last for a while. 

What I find ridiculous is these trolling cretins make you have to defend A BUFFALO BILLS QB who is one of the top 2 QB's in the NFL on a Buffalo Bills message board.  What the FREAKING hell is that?

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

Oh and for the record including all fumble rather then fumbles lost is stupid.  Why not include dropped INT's or almost INT's? 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

Doesn’t matter when you’re constantly turning the ball over.  Its impossible to stay consistent and when your not consistent you lose football games. Just like Sunday. Josh interception vs. Philly completely changed the momentum of the game. Philly got the lead and gained confidence. 

WRONG. What completely changed the momentum of the game was the defenses inability to stop the Eagles once they got hot.  You seem to forget that the Eagles had easily gone down the field to cut the Bills lead from 24 - 14 to 24 - 21. That changed the momentum.  Allen's INT after that was a product of his forcing the ball realizing that the D was falling apart again.  What's surprising and a testament to Allen's skill is that after falling behind 28 - 24 Allen led the Bills on a TD drive that retook the lead, regained momentum and should have won the game.

 

You and others are pushing a deeply dishonest take on what happened last Sunday.  And you're doing it so you can bash Allen. 

 

 

[MJS]

Do you notice how most of those on that list below Josh Allen are from different eras of the game?

 

Allen has a high INT% this year. He is at 3.0, which is bad in today's NFL. In my opinion, you want to be at 2.5 or under, which other years he has been. Clearly, it is too much this year.

 

Of QB's who have started 11 or more games this year, only Mac Jones has a higher INT%.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Do you notice how most of those on that list below Josh Allen are from different eras of the game?

 

Allen has a high INT% this year. He is at 3.0, which is bad in today's NFL. In my opinion, you want to be at 2.5 or under, which other years he has been. Clearly, it is too much this year.

 

Of QB's who have started 11 or more games this year, only Mac Jones has a higher INT%.

 

He is at 1.22% since Brady took over if you don't count the Hail Mary.  2 games is a small sample size, but its a substantial difference.  Offense was avg 20.5 PPG final 6 games Dorsey was here against mostly pretty weak competition and 33 PPG against the stellar Jets D that smashed the Bills offense week 1 under Dorsey and a tough D from one of the best teams in the league on the road in Philly.

 

In fact, Josh Allens INT % was 17% higher under Dorsey than Daboll, and that includes Daboll having to coach Allen his first 2 years as a RAW player with no weapons or talent around him to work with.  Dorsey had prime Allen with Diggs and company, including this year which is probably the most talented offensive roster in the Beane/Allen ERA.  

 

So I think there it is safe to say that Dorsey is a big reason for that and it might just be different moving forward with Brady (or whoever if Brady isn't back next year).  

[Thurman#1]

Spoiler alert:  YES.

 

2.5% last year. That's high. Seriously high. 25th best ranking in the NFL in 2022 in terms of INT percentage. Only 34 players qualifed for the list by having 200 or more attempts. 25th out of 34. The guys behind Josh that year? Stafford, Carr, Matt Ryan, Zach Wilson, Mariota, Davis Mills, Wentz, Justin Fields and Dak dead last. 

 

Now the guys just ahead of him, from 2.2% and back to Josh? Aaron Rodgers having a down year. Russ Wilson having a catastrophic year. Kenny Pickett, Taylor Heinicke, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield and Mac Jones. Again, those are the guys ABOVE Josh.

 

3.0% this year. That's terrible. No kidding, it's really bad. Seriously high. 29th best ranking in the NFL in 2022 in terms of INT percentage. Only 35 guys have qualified with the 200 attempts threshold this year so far. The guys behind Josh? Aidan O'Connell, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill, Tyson Bagent and Jimmy Garoppolo. How does that list look?

 

And the ten guys immediately ABOVE Josh this year, in order from best to worst? Bryce Young, Deshaun Watson, Minshew, Josh Dobbs, Stafford, Tagovailoa, Sam Howell, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts and Desmond Ridder. There's a QB or two there who are good, but mostly dross.

 

So, yeah, Allen is having too many INTs the last couple of years. He just is.

 

Yeah, he managed to do quite a bit better from 2019 to 2021, at 2.0%, 1.7% and 2.3%. Those much better years keep his career numbers looking reasonable. 

 

But right now he's just not avoiding INTs like he should.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

He is at 1.22% since Brady took over if you don't count the Hail Mary.  2 games is a small sample size, but its a substantial difference.  Offense was avg 20.5 PPG final 6 games Dorsey was here against mostly pretty weak competition and 33 PPG against the stellar Jets D that smashed the Bills offense week 1 under Dorsey and a tough D from one of the best teams in the league on the road in Philly.

 

In fact, Josh Allens INT % was 17% higher under Dorsey than Daboll, and that includes Daboll having to coach Allen his first 2 years as a RAW player with no weapons or talent around him to work with.  Dorsey had prime Allen with Diggs and company, including this year which is probably the most talented offensive roster in the Beane/Allen ERA.  

 

So I think there it is safe to say that Dorsey is a big reason for that and it might just be different moving forward with Brady (or whoever if Brady isn't back next year).  

 

 

Fair enough that the last two games he's been better. That's a positive trend. It makes me hopeful.

 

But it's really not safe to say that Dorsey is a big reason for that. The uptrend had started the year before Dorsey took over. 2.3%, his figure in Daboll's last year, was Allen's worst under Daboll barring Allen's rookie year. And the difference between Daboll's last year and Dorsey's first was the difference between 2.3% and 2.5%.  Not a significant difference.

 

So no, it's not safe to say that. It's very possible that it's a factor, but equally possible the uptick is something else, perhaps a more relaxed way of handling the off-season than he had earlier, for instance. Not saying that's it, but it's one of a number of possibilities among possible major factors. And Dorsey is one of those.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, MJS said:

Do you notice how most of those on that list below Josh Allen are from different eras of the game?

 

Allen has a high INT% this year. He is at 3.0, which is bad in today's NFL. In my opinion, you want to be at 2.5 or under, which other years he has been. Clearly, it is too much this year.

 

Of QB's who have started 11 or more games this year, only Mac Jones has a higher INT%.

 

 

More like 2.0%, honestly. 2.5% is still pretty bad these days.

[MJS]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

He is at 1.22% since Brady took over if you don't count the Hail Mary.  2 games is a small sample size, but its a substantial difference.  Offense was avg 20.5 PPG final 6 games Dorsey was here against mostly pretty weak competition and 33 PPG against the stellar Jets D that smashed the Bills offense week 1 under Dorsey and a tough D from one of the best teams in the league on the road in Philly.

 

In fact, Josh Allens INT % was 17% higher under Dorsey than Daboll, and that includes Daboll having to coach Allen his first 2 years as a RAW player with no weapons or talent around him to work with.  Dorsey had prime Allen with Diggs and company, including this year which is probably the most talented offensive roster in the Beane/Allen ERA.  

 

So I think there it is safe to say that Dorsey is a big reason for that and it might just be different moving forward with Brady (or whoever if Brady isn't back next year).  

Hopefully that turns out to be true and will continue.

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

More like 2.0%, honestly. 2.5% is still pretty bad these days.

Yeah, but I meant 2.5 as kind of the upper bound. Ideally you want it lower, for sure.

[ProcessTruster]

15 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

Compelling argument - thanks for sharing! Makes sense. I would love to see interception at "a bad time in game" stat. Josh is #3 all-time. Google it....

yeah that dumb throw 4th quarter pick to the Eagles was the turning point in the second half for sure.  

[BlazinBill]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

Thank you so much for taking the time and effort to put this together. It's good to see the energy put into the best QB to ever wear a Bills jersey.

As fans we tend to get very low and panic when things aren't as they should - probably the biggest reason the majority are not coaches or GM's in The NFL despite the majority on here clearly being qualified- blatant sarcasm there.

We have the guy we need and I still Billieve he brings 1 home- not sure when but almost certain he will - IMO Sunday against the Eagles is another example - that dude just wills this offense to perform when he really needs it too- now we just need the supporti g team to helps balance the ebbs and flows

 

[Chicken Boo]

This is funny, being that Drew Brees also turned the ball over a lot and at the absolute worst times.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yeah that dumb throw 4th quarter pick to the Eagles was the turning point in the second half for sure.  

In what way?  Did that INT end the game giving the Eagles the win? Did that INT result in the Eagles going on a scoring run and burying the Bills?  What I saw was that Allen came back and led the Bills to the lead with less then 2 minutes left in the game and the D couldn't make it hold up.

 

This notion that Allen's INT was any kind of turning point in that game is just not supported by the evidence.  It was no more a turning point then the dropped TD pass or 2 missed FG's. 

 

In fact if you want to call out the closest thing to a turning point in this game you have to point at the defense allowing the Eagles to march down the field to cut the Bills 24 - 14 lead to 24 - 21 early in the 4th quarter.  That got the crowd back into it and fired up the Eagles D.  A simple stop by the Bills D giving Allen and the offense the ball back in the 4th quarter with a TEN POINT LEAD likley ends the game.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Fair enough that the last two games he's been better. That's a positive trend. It makes me hopeful.

 

But it's really not safe to say that Dorsey is a big reason for that. The uptrend had started the year before Dorsey took over. 2.3%, his figure in Daboll's last year, was Allen's worst under Daboll barring Allen's rookie year. And the difference between Daboll's last year and Dorsey's first was the difference between 2.3% and 2.5%.  Not a significant difference.

 

So no, it's not safe to say that. It's very possible that it's a factor, but equally possible the uptick is something else, perhaps a more relaxed way of handling the off-season than he had earlier, for instance. Not saying that's it, but it's one of a number of possibilities among possible major factors. And Dorsey is one of those.

 

 

It climbed further this year under Dorsey too.  So his two highest periods of his career were under Dorsey and getting worse.  And again, Dorsey gone and Bills are avg 13 points per game more and against tougher competition.  
 

So everything still suggests Dorsey was a major issue for this offense and didn’t have Allen playing his best football either.

[FLFan]

13 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

WRONG. What completely changed the momentum of the game was the defenses inability to stop the Eagles once they got hot.  You seem to forget that the Eagles had easily gone down the field to cut the Bills lead from 24 - 14 to 24 - 21. That changed the momentum.  Allen's INT after that was a product of his forcing the ball realizing that the D was falling apart again.  What's surprising and a testament to Allen's skill is that after falling behind 28 - 24 Allen led the Bills on a TD drive that retook the lead, regained momentum and should have won the game.

 

You and others are pushing a deeply dishonest take on what happened last Sunday.  And you're doing it so you can bash Allen. 

 

 

Also, Hurts had two turnovers in that game which also impacted the score.  You are right about the “analysis” that you responded to being disingenuous at best.

[Thurman#1]

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

It climbed further this year under Dorsey too.  So his two highest periods of his career were under Dorsey and getting worse.  And again, Dorsey gone and Bills are avg 13 points per game more and against tougher competition.  
 

So everything still suggests Dorsey was a major issue for this offense and didn’t have Allen playing his best football either.

 

Not everything, hell, not even this evidence suggests that Dorsey was a major issue for this. It just doesn't. 

 

Hi first very significant rise in percentage, a jump of 0.6 percent, happened under Daboll. Between Daboll's third and fourth years, Allen went from 7th best in the league at 1.6% to 18th best. Again, under Daboll, a major drop.

 

If Dorsey were the problem, his first year, when he took over from Daboll would see a major jump. But that's not what happened. He only got 0.2% worse. 

 

The difference between Dorsey's first and second years would not be significant if Dorsey were the main part of the problem. But in fact he went up 0.5%.

 

What all this tells us is that the ups and downs do NOT correlate well at all with the difference between Daboll and Dorsey. It tells us that it's likely something else. There's likely some effect from the OC, absolutely. But the biggest changes happened between two years when Daboll was coordinator and then again between two years when Dorsey was.

 

Something else is at play. Perhaps several things.

 

I have a guess, myself. Remember early in his career, when in the offseason Josh would go to work on improving one aspect of his game that needed work? Remember? One year it was deep ball accuracy, which improved greatly the next year. The year before that it was mechanics and footwork and using the turn of his torso to generate force. After that it was touch and accuracy on short passes, which also greatly improved. Remember that?

 

What did he work on the last couple of offseasons? We didn't hear much of anything. In his interview with that Dallas podcast he said this offseason he's just relaxing, getting healthy. Whisky was mentioned. This was the best way for him, he said. The switch in girlfriends was not really mentioned, but dating a movie star isn't concentrating on touch and accuracy on short passes.

 

Josh didn't used to get out-worked. These days, he is.

 

 

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

It climbed further this year under Dorsey too.  So his two highest periods of his career were under Dorsey and getting worse.  And again, Dorsey gone and Bills are avg 13 points per game more and against tougher competition.  
 

So everything still suggests Dorsey was a major issue for this offense and didn’t have Allen playing his best football either.

 

 

Again, the difference between Daboll's last year and Dorsey's first was statistically pretty much insignificant. 2.3% and 2.5%. If that were where the problem was, that's where we'd see the effects hit. We don't.

[julian]

20 hours ago, SWATeam said:

I see 8 fumbles in 8 playoff games.  To go along with 56 regular season fumbles.  It's very hard to argue that he hasn't been a turnover machine.

Agreed… luckily he’s also a TD machine, a highlight machine and a winning machine.

 

 Bills fans are extremely lucky they turned the card in with Allen’s name on it that fateful day.

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, julian said:

Agreed… luckily he’s also a TD machine, a highlight machine and a winning machine.

 

 Bills fans are extremely lucky they turned the card in with Allen’s name on it that fateful day.

It doesn't matter to these folks

 

They already don't care that Allen scores the most points in the league, or generates the most offensive value, or has one of the highest CPOE, or any number of metrics that put him at the top of the NFL rn...they also won't be satisfied if he isn't also lowest turnover rate in the league

 

Nothing but being at the absolute top of every statistical category, every single game of every single season is acceptable 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

In what way?  Did that INT end the game giving the Eagles the win? Did that INT result in the Eagles going on a scoring run and burying the Bills?  What I saw was that Allen came back and led the Bills to the lead with less then 2 minutes left in the game and the D couldn't make it hold up.

 

This notion that Allen's INT was any kind of turning point in that game is just not supported by the evidence.  It was no more a turning point then the dropped TD pass or 2 missed FG's. 

 

In fact if you want to call out the closest thing to a turning point in this game you have to point at the defense allowing the Eagles to march down the field to cut the Bills 24 - 14 lead to 24 - 21 early in the 4th quarter.  That got the crowd back into it and fired up the Eagles D.  A simple stop by the Bills D giving Allen and the offense the ball back in the 4th quarter with a TEN POINT LEAD likley ends the game.

 

 

 

 

Did that INT give the Eagles the win?

 

It led directly to seven Eagles points. So, kinda.

 

At that point in the game neither team could stop the other and they were going back and forth between Buffalo up by 10 and Buffalo up by 3.

 

Buffalo up by 3 with the ball and the INT happens. Not only does Buffalo lose the possession but the Eagles get the ball on the Bills 24 yard line, put up seven and take the lead for the first time since the 1st quarter.

 

You're kidding yourself if you don't think that was a huge turning point. Not the only turning point, there were a bunch. But that was a huge moment. 

 

Instead of going back and forth between Bills by 10 and Bills by 3, now the lead is switching back and forth.

 

That defensive failure you're referring to didn't switch things at all, really. They'd been going back and forth from up 3 to up 10 since it was 17-7. That was more of the same. The Bills got the ball back and had been marching up and down the field for a while. Then Josh throws the INT.

 

It was absolutely a big big turning point. It should be pointed out that even with that included Allen had a terrific game. But without that, they probably win. But you could say the same for several other turning points, Cook's drop of a TD catch, the two failures of FGs ...

 

In the end, you're greatly overstating the case here. He's neither "wrong" nor "deeply dishonest." There is no wrong or right here. The two of you have a reasonable disagreement and both of you are spinning like a centrifuge.

 

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It doesn't matter to these folks

 

They already don't care that Allen scores the most points in the league, or generates the most offensive value, or has one of the highest CPOE, or any number of metrics that put him at the top of the NFL rn...they also won't be satisfied if he isn't also lowest turnover rate in the league

 

Nothing but being at the absolute top of every statistical category, every single game of every single season is acceptable 

 

 

Equally, for some folks, INTs are just OK and should be ignored because he's a good player. Nothing but ignoring the INTs and considering them completely acceptable is in any way reasonable.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Thurman#1

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Did that INT give the Eagles the win?

 

It led directly to seven Eagles points. So, kinda.

 

At that point in the game neither team could stop the other and they were going back and forth between Buffalo up by 10 and Buffalo up by 3.

 

Buffalo up by 3 with the ball and the INT happens. Not only does Buffalo lose the possession but the Eagles get the ball on the Bills 24 yard line, put up seven and take the lead for the first time since the 1st quarter.

 

You're kidding yourself if you don't think that was a huge turning point. Not the only turning point, there were a bunch. But that was a huge moment. 

 

Instead of going back and forth between Bills by 10 and Bills by 3, now the lead is switching back and forth.

 

That defensive failure you're referring to didn't switch things at all, really. They'd been going back and forth from up 3 to up 10 since it was 17-7. That was more of the same. The Bills got the ball back and had been marching up and down the field for a while. Then Josh throws the INT.

 

It was absolutely a big big turning point. It should be pointed out that even with that included Allen had a terrific game. But without that, they probably win. But you could say the same for several other turning points, Cook's drop of a TD catch, the two failures of FGs ...

 

In the end, you're greatly overstating the case here. He's neither wrong nor blatantly dishonest. The two of you have a disagreement and both of you are spinning like a centrifuge.

 

 

Equally, for some folks, INTs are just OK and should be ignored because he's a good player. Nothing but ignoring the INTs and considering them completely acceptable is in any way reasonable.

How could I possibly ignore the INTs lol

 

You bring them up every chance you can