Is Josh Allen really as INT prone as being made out to be? Spoiler Alert - NO

[FireChans]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Still has nothing to do with the conversation around Josh's interception rate or this thread.  

I’m discussing the larger narrative around Josh’s turnovers, of which INT’s are only a piece of the puzzle.

 

you have proved that Josh isn’t that INT prone. You haven’t proved that he isn’t turnover prone. I think the latter is a much more interesting discussion. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Alpha, I appreciate your post and positivity.

 

- but why do you include rushing tds and not fumbles? Seems a bit misleading because Allen doesn’t lead in ints but does lead in total turnovers. 
 

- comparing Allen to guys who played over a decade ago is very misleading. We are in an era where Sam Howell is going to have as many 5,000 yard passing seasons as Marino, Montana, Kelly, Elway, and million other qbs combined. It’s never been easier to be a qb.

 

is. 

[ScotSHO]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Your cherry picked list is mostly QBs from a different era.  Surprised Ferguson is not on this list.  Redo your homework with only QB stats from 2009 and on (current QB protection era).

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I’m discussing the larger narrative around Josh’s turnovers, of which INT’s are only a piece of the puzzle.

 

you have proved that Josh isn’t that INT prone. You haven’t proved that he isn’t turnover prone. I think the latter is a much more interesting discussion. 

Yeah, it’s like only doing a baseball average and only counting strikeouts and not other outs. 

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Okay.

 

Josh Allen has 23 lost fumbles in his 5.5 season career.

 

Peyton Manning has 17 lost fumbles in the last 12 years of his career (they don't have the data prior to 2003)

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/peyton-manning-fumbles-lost

 

Now we are getting somewhere!

I think it's appropriate to list total fumbles as opposed to fumbles lost tbh

 

Once the ball is on the ground it's basically luck as to who recovers it

[machine gun kelly]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

OP nicely written. Let's also not forget he has not missed many games so he has played many more games/snaps than others in the last 5 years. Also some of the worst INT guys suck and simply don't play that long and get benched.

I'm too tired to look it up but Josh has fumbled the ball a ton as well. Again he has more dropbacks and carries than probably any other QB during that time. But still numerically he is turning the ball over quite a bit. He cleaned up the fumbling quite a bit but it still has hurt him from time to time like Minn last year, Dolphins playoff game, and Jets this year. 

He has the longest consecutive games streak in the NFL and it’s not even close.  He also has a lot of TD’s so proportionally he’ll have some pics.  
 

Lastly, this guy single handedly has gotten us out of trouble more times than I can count.

[ChrisWatson#21]

What’s even more telling is the situations of his interceptions a couple have been deep shots like on 3rd & 20 which essentially were punts and one was on that hail mary end of half vs Jets.  

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I think it's appropriate to list total fumbles as opposed to fumbles lost tbh

 

Once the ball is on the ground it's basically luck as to who recovers it

Great point. Stat nerds use fumble recoveries as something that can regress (if you recovered a lot the previous season) or improve (if vice versa). Fumbles are completely fluky.

[Brandon]

Accounting for pass attempts, sacks and running plays,  if you're going to put the ball in the QB's hands around 750 times per season,  you're going to have to put up with some turnovers.  I do think Allen's fumbles are an issue,  but the career average of 1 INT per 40+ pass attempts is definitely manageable as long as he's putting points on the board.  Matt Stafford led the league in INTs in 2021...the year they won the Super Bowl.  Even this season it's been manageable and the biggest issue usually hasn't been the two or three extra INTs he's thrown over the course of the season,  but that the offense was stalling out far too often in the final weeks with Ken Dorsey at OC.  That's not to say there's no room for improvement and that he shouldn't work to eliminate as many INTs as he can,  but it's not the end of the world. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, ChrisWatson#21 said:

What’s even more telling is the situations of his interceptions a couple have been deep shots like on 3rd & 20 which essentially were punts and one was on that hail mary end of half vs Jets.  

That is a very fair point and I never mind those especially when compared to the Eagles one. 
 

 

Just now, Brandon said:

Accounting for pass attempts, sacks and running plays,  if you're going to put the ball in the QB's hands around 750 times per season,  you're going to have to put up with some turnovers.  I do think Allen's fumbles are an issue,  but the career average of 1 INT per 40+ pass attempts is definitely manageable as long as he's putting points on the board.  Matt Stafford led the league in INTs in 2021...the year they won the Super Bowl.  Even this season it's been manageable and the biggest issue usually hasn't been the two or three extra INTs he's thrown over the course of the season,  but that the offense was stalling out far too often in the final weeks with Ken Dorsey at OC.  That's not to say there's no room for improvement and that he shouldn't work to eliminate as many INTs as he can,  but it's not the end of the world. 

Good post and it would be an interesting stat with weighed interceptions (like game situation, score, decision making - throwing into double coverage, or like the Hail Mary/ deep shot ones). 
 

we could make hundreds on it!

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

 

the full list without selective editing. 

 

1 Aaron Rodgers 1.4% 

2 Jacoby Brissett 1.5%

3 Tyrod Taylor 1.6%

4

Patrick Mahomes 1.7% 

Justin Herbert 1.7%

6

Tom Brady 1.8%

Colin Kaepernick 1.8%

Russell Wilson 1.8% 

9 Dak Prescott 1.9% 

10

Derek Carr2.0% 

Joe Burrow2.0% 

Jared Goff2.0% 

Carson Wentz2.0% 

14

Sam Bradford2.1% 

Trevor Lawrence2.1% 

Kyler Murray2.1% 

Alex Smith2.1% 

Daniel Jones2.1% 

Neil O'Donnell2.1% 

Kirk Cousins2.1% 

21

Deshaun Watson2.2% 

Lamar Jackson2.2% 

Matt Ryan2.2% 

Donovan McNabb2.2% 

Case Keenum2.2% 

26

Nick Foles2.3% 

Jeff Garcia2.3%

Teddy Bridgewater2.3%2014-20236TM

Drew Brees2.3%2001-20202TM

Mark Brunell2.3%1994-20115TM

RankPlayerInt%YearsTm

Joe Flacco2.3%2008-20223TM

32

David Garrard 2.4% 

Brian Hoyer 2.4% 

Jason Campbell 2.4%

Matthew Stafford 2.4%

Ryan Tannehill 2.4%

Josh Allen 2.4%

[Alphadawg7]

37 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah, it’s like only doing a baseball average and only counting strikeouts and not other outs. 

 

What part of fumbles play into interception rate on passes attempted vs interceptions thrown?  Still waiting for someone to answer that which is the topic of this thread despite the best efforts of some to change the topic to something else.  This was about Allens int % compared to other greats to see how often it really is.  

Edited November 30, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Ya Digg?]

23 minutes ago, ChrisWatson#21 said:

What’s even more telling is the situations of his interceptions a couple have been deep shots like on 3rd & 20 which essentially were punts and one was on that hail mary end of half vs Jets.  

It’s still an interception though. Not really a fan of “just think of it as an arm punt” NO, it’s an interception. You hardly ever see other QBs throw “arm punts.” The Hail Mary interception was a stupid throw the other week. As soon as the play broke down, he should’ve just ran for 15 yards and taken the game to half. If the narrative of him not being interception prone is going to go away, then stop with the unnecessary interceptions 

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

the full list without selective editing. 

 

1 Aaron Rodgers 1.4% 

2 Jacoby Brissett 1.5%

3 Tyrod Taylor 1.6%

4

Patrick Mahomes 1.7% 

Justin Herbert 1.7%

6

Tom Brady 1.8%

Colin Kaepernick 1.8%

Russell Wilson 1.8% 

9 Dak Prescott 1.9% 

10

Derek Carr2.0% 

Joe Burrow2.0% 

Jared Goff2.0% 

Carson Wentz2.0% 

14

Sam Bradford2.1% 

Trevor Lawrence2.1% 

Kyler Murray2.1% 

Alex Smith2.1% 

Daniel Jones2.1% 

Neil O'Donnell2.1% 

Kirk Cousins2.1% 

21

Deshaun Watson2.2% 

Lamar Jackson2.2% 

Matt Ryan2.2% 

Donovan McNabb2.2% 

Case Keenum2.2% 

26

Nick Foles2.3% 

Jeff Garcia2.3%

Teddy Bridgewater2.3%2014-20236TM

Drew Brees2.3%2001-20202TM

Mark Brunell2.3%1994-20115TM

RankPlayerInt%YearsTm

Joe Flacco2.3%2008-20223TM

32

David Garrard 2.4% 

Brian Hoyer 2.4% 

Jason Campbell 2.4%

Matthew Stafford 2.4%

Ryan Tannehill 2.4%

Josh Allen 2.4%

 

LMAO - so much for blocking me 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Success]

1 hour ago, BillMafia716ix said:

Doesn’t matter when you’re constantly turning the ball over.  Its impossible to stay consistent and when your not consistent you lose football games. Just like Sunday. Josh interception vs. Philly completely changed the momentum of the game. Philly got the lead and gained confidence. 

 

Doesn't matter?  That he leads the league in TD's?

 

Well, we disagree.

 

[Einstein]

Statistically flawed in sample, but I really like the conclusion, so amen!!

 

Love Josh Allen.

[BBFL]

57 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Very few yes. But Minnesota last year and Jets this yesr were all on him.

 Currently discussed that in another thread who I personally feel the blame of that game is on. I also didn’t dispute there have been games where his turnovers have aided in the reason for us losing but with the game on the absolute line he rarely turns it over to end the game was the point. I’m sure a vast majority of Bills fans are comfortable with Josh driving for the game winner. 

49 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I’m discussing the larger narrative around Josh’s turnovers, of which INT’s are only a piece of the puzzle.

 

you have proved that Josh isn’t that INT prone. You haven’t proved that he isn’t turnover prone. I think the latter is a much more interesting discussion. 

Curious as to the percentage of fumbles lost is of him as a runner or a strip sack…

 

When the guy has been the only viable rusher on the team for several years fumbles are bound to happen.

[90sBills]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What part of fumbles play into interception rate on passes attempted vs interceptions thrown?  Still waiting for someone to answer that which is the topic of this thread despite the best efforts of some to change the topic to something else.  This was about Allens int % compared to other greats to see how often it really is.  

What’s the purpose of this exercise? Turnovers hurt a team’s chances of winning. Allen has a negative narrative of being a qb that, while great, is prone to mistakes and turning the ball over. So I don’t get your insistence that fumbles should not count. Why? Because it bolster the case against Allen? I doubt Allen cares. I’m sure he and the team recognize this is an issue and are working on solutions to get them lowered. 

[C.Biscuit97]

18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What part of fumbles play into interception rate on passes attempted vs interceptions thrown?  Still waiting for someone to answer that which is the topic of this thread despite the best efforts of some to change the topic to something else.  This was about Allens int % compared to other greats to see how often it really is.  

I mean I guess you proved your point of the thread. Allen has never led the nfl in ints. Myself and others think it would be more interesting to include all ints and fumbles because the stat is Allen leads in turnovers since he entered the nfl.

 

Everyone knows Allen is awesome. But why are so many soccer moms about him? Just feel like this was misleading and deflecting of the point that Allen has some turnover issues. He is making $45 million. Hes allowed to be held to a really high standard.

[FireChans]

50 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think it's appropriate to list total fumbles as opposed to fumbles lost tbh

 

Once the ball is on the ground it's basically luck as to who recovers it

I get that. I'm kinda torn on it because a mishandled snap and basically an automatic loss of down happens a lot more than a true fumble that is a mad scramble.

 

18 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

the full list without selective editing. 

 

1 Aaron Rodgers 1.4% 

2 Jacoby Brissett 1.5%

3 Tyrod Taylor 1.6%

4

Patrick Mahomes 1.7% 

Justin Herbert 1.7%

6

Tom Brady 1.8%

Colin Kaepernick 1.8%

Russell Wilson 1.8% 

9 Dak Prescott 1.9% 

10

Derek Carr2.0% 

Joe Burrow2.0% 

Jared Goff2.0% 

Carson Wentz2.0% 

14

Sam Bradford2.1% 

Trevor Lawrence2.1% 

Kyler Murray2.1% 

Alex Smith2.1% 

Daniel Jones2.1% 

Neil O'Donnell2.1% 

Kirk Cousins2.1% 

21

Deshaun Watson2.2% 

Lamar Jackson2.2% 

Matt Ryan2.2% 

Donovan McNabb2.2% 

Case Keenum2.2% 

26

Nick Foles2.3% 

Jeff Garcia2.3%

Teddy Bridgewater2.3%2014-20236TM

Drew Brees2.3%2001-20202TM

Mark Brunell2.3%1994-20115TM

RankPlayerInt%YearsTm

Joe Flacco2.3%2008-20223TM

32

David Garrard 2.4% 

Brian Hoyer 2.4% 

Jason Campbell 2.4%

Matthew Stafford 2.4%

Ryan Tannehill 2.4%

Josh Allen 2.4%

Hysterical lol. @Alphadawg7 you dog! Josh worse than Daniel Jones, Sammy Bradford and Neil "the Wheel" O'Donnell?

 

You switched the samples. And the pathology reports! You kill Lentz, too?! Huh?! Did you?!

 

12 minutes ago, BBFL said:

 Currently discussed that in another thread who I personally feel the blame of that game is on. I also didn’t dispute there have been games where his turnovers have aided in the reason for us losing but with the game on the absolute line he rarely turns it over to end the game was the point. I’m sure a vast majority of Bills fans are comfortable with Josh driving for the game winner. 

Curious as to the percentage of fumbles lost is of him as a runner or a strip sack…

 

When the guy has been the only viable rusher on the team for several years fumbles are bound to happen.

Sure, which is why if you're gonna include his rushing TD's, then include his fumbles.