Is Josh Allen really as INT prone as being made out to be? Spoiler Alert - NO

[Man with No Name]

There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn lies, and statistics!!

 

Great post from OP

[BBFL]

He turns the ball over but scores an awful lot to compensate that. 
 

Very few times has a turnover of his sealed the game as a loss. 
 

Bugger picture in those games? Sure, it probably aided in a loss however I’ll take the probability of him doing what he does to equate to a win over the probability of a loss. 

[Man with No Name]

You absolutely can blame some of the interceptions on coaching. Better coaching = less bad decisions. A coach's job is to communicate to the players what they should be looking for. 

Obviously coaching can't eliminate all mistakes, but there are definitely established patterns that can be positively or negatively affected by coaching. 

[FireChans]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No, read the thread title and OP.  This thread is discussing the narrative around his interceptions which if you turn on a TV is what is predominantly being discussed.  Again, if you or the other poster you quoted want to start your own thread to talk about a completely different topic, then feel free to do so and I will be happy to participate in it.  But the thread title and OP very specifically identified the topic of this conversation.  

 

 

No, his interceptions and leading the NFL right now in interceptions is predominantly what is being discussed.  Regardless, this thread is discussing the narrative around him being prone to interceptions and if that is accurate or not.  

Why are you including his rushing TD’s and not his rushing turnovers in this analysis?

[JGMcD2]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why are you including his rushing TD’s and not his rushing turnovers in this analysis?

Because a fumble isn’t necessarily a rushing turnover? 

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Because a fumble isn’t necessarily a rushing turnover? 

It can be.

 

it seems disingenuous to include rushing TD’s in an analysis about throwing interceptions and not include fumbles. I recently checked the math and it’s impossible to throw an interception when running the football unless you’re Zach Wilson. 

[JGMcD2]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

It can be.

 

it seems disingenuous to include rushing TD’s in an analysis about throwing interceptions and not include fumbles. I recently checked the math and it’s impossible to throw an interception when running the football unless you’re Zach Wilson. 

A fumble can occur when running the football, but it’s not exclusively a “rushing turnover” as you described it above. 

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why are you including his rushing TD’s and not his rushing turnovers in this analysis?

 

The thread title and OP analysis was almost entirely the rate of frequency that Josh throws an INT, which has nothing to do with TD's.  The topic of conversation very specifically is around his interceptions.  I added a small piece of bonus content at the end to just see how often he scored vs throwing an interception and spot checked it against a couple greats...why, because we are talking about interceptions.  I guess shame on me for staying on topic about interceptions in a thread about interceptions.  

 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

Not exactly on topic but close enough-

 

The Bills are turning the ball over at a lower rate per game than the Chiefs and Dolphins

 

We are also in +territory wrt takeaways/turnovers, Chiefs and Dolphins both in the red

 

 

It's just been a weird season overall

[BillMafia716ix]

1 hour ago, Success said:

 

He also leads in TD's.

 

Doesn’t matter when you’re constantly turning the ball over.  Its impossible to stay consistent and when your not consistent you lose football games. Just like Sunday. Josh interception vs. Philly completely changed the momentum of the game. Philly got the lead and gained confidence. 

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

The thread title and OP analysis was almost entirely the rate of frequency that Josh throws an INT, which has nothing to do with TD's.  The topic of conversation very specifically is around his interceptions.  I added a small piece of bonus content at the end to just see how often he scored vs throwing an interception and spot checked it against a couple greats...why, because we are talking about interceptions.  I guess shame on me for staying on topic about interceptions in a thread about interceptions.  

 

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

You can consider it commentary on your bonus content if you like.

 

You compared Josh's TD:INT ratio, including his 48 rushing/receiving TD's through roughly 5.5 seasons, to 4 other players who collectively have 85 total non-passing TDs over a collective 80 seasons. FWIW, Josh Allen currently has 56 recorded fumbles (not fumbles lost), Peyton Manning is his 17 year career only had 75.

 

I think a discrepancy between those numbers probably needs a deeper dive in order to truly dispel any turnover narrative as you claim to be doing. Ignoring such a fatal flaw in your methodology harms your overall argument, IMO. As does saying "the narrative isn't TO prone, it's interception prone!" as if most sports media talking heads, and even TBDers are usually attempting to reference turnovers in general.

 

I guess you have dispelled the narrative that Josh isn't that INT prone but may certainly still be very turnover prone. Idk if that's the win you were going for.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

53 minutes ago, BBFL said:

He turns the ball over but scores an awful lot to compensate that. 
 

Very few times has a turnover of his sealed the game as a loss. 
 

Bugger picture in those games? Sure, it probably aided in a loss however I’ll take the probability of him doing what he does to equate to a win over the probability of a loss. 

Very few yes. But Minnesota last year and Jets this yesr were all on him.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

You can consider it commentary on your bonus content if you like.

 

You compared Josh's TD:INT ratio, including his 48 rushing/receiving TD's through roughly 5.5 seasons, to 4 other players who collectively have 85 total non-passing TDs over a collective 80 seasons. FWIW, Josh Allen currently has 56 recorded fumbles (not fumbles lost), Peyton Manning is his 17 year career only had 75.

 

I think a discrepancy between those numbers probably needs a deeper dive in order to truly dispel any turnover narrative as you claim to be doing. Ignoring such a fatal flaw in your methodology harms your overall argument, IMO. As does saying "the narrative isn't TO prone, it's interception prone!" as if most sports media talking heads, and even TBDers are usually attempting to reference turnovers in general.

 

I guess you have dispelled the narrative that Josh isn't that INT prone but may certainly still be very turnover prone. Idk if that's the win you were going for.

 

Josh Allen has 23 lost fumbles not 56.  A fumble is not a turnover, a lost fumble is turnover.  

 

None the less, this isnt a thread about fumbles no matter how much you want to make it be. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[FireChans]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Josh Allen has 23 lost fumbles not 56.  A fumble is NOT a turnover, a LOST fumble is turnover.

 

None the less, this isnt a thread about fumbles no matter how much you want to make it be. 

I said that. Read the posts you respond to.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I said that. Read the posts you respond to.

 

No, you only mentioned 56 fumbles and said those are not lost, but then didn't list the lost number of fumbles.  If you know its 23 lost fumbles, then write 23 lost fumbles.  Saying 56 and leaving a note that those arent all lost leaves it open to interpretation to seem worse than it is.  23 is a lot less than 56.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[BufBills83]

2 hours ago, Success said:

To me, the ratio part is the most important.

 

JA knows how to score TD's.

 

 

This is what I have been trying to tell people when they say he is turnover prone.  Its all about the TD-to-INT ratio.

 

I don't care if you are throwing 20 interceptions (I mean I do but you get my point lol) a season if you are scoring close to 50 TDs a year, which is a 2.5-1 ratio which is really good.

[FireChans]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No, you only mentioned 56 fumbles and said those are not lost, but then didn't list the lost number of fumbles.  If you know its 23 lost fumbles, then write 23 lost fumbles not 56 fumbles and just a not that not all those are lost to make it seem like the actual turnover number is higher.  

Okay.

 

Josh Allen has 23 lost fumbles in his 5.5 season career.

 

Peyton Manning has 17 lost fumbles in the last 12 years of his career (they don't have the data prior to 2003)

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/peyton-manning-fumbles-lost

 

Now we are getting somewhere!

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

Alpha as always thank you for a thoughtful analysis.  My only caution for myself and others not to compare to Montana, Kelly, Marino and the older guys as the rules were different all of them threw more pics.

 

Where you’re argument holds

water For me are the current or recently retired guys (last 4-5 years) as that is apples to apples.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

OP nicely written. Let's also not forget he has not missed many games so he has played many more games/snaps than others in the last 5 years. Also some of the worst INT guys suck and simply don't play that long and get benched.

I'm too tired to look it up but Josh has fumbled the ball a ton as well. Again he has more dropbacks and carries than probably any other QB during that time. But still numerically he is turning the ball over quite a bit. He cleaned up the fumbling quite a bit but it still has hurt him from time to time like Minn last year, Dolphins playoff game, and Jets this year. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Okay.

 

Josh Allen has 23 lost fumbles in his 5.5 season career.

 

Peyton Manning has 17 lost fumbles in the last 12 years of his career (they don't have the data prior to 2003)

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/peyton-manning-fumbles-lost

 

Now we are getting somewhere!

 

Still has nothing to do with the conversation around Josh's interception rate or this thread.