Is Josh Allen really as INT prone as being made out to be? Spoiler Alert - NO

[Charles Romes]

Are Allen’s stats being inflated here by counting total touchdowns rather than passing touchdowns.  That is commonly done by Allen supporters.  

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I make this argument all the time but people dont want to hear it.  However his INT% is going up not down.  This year his INT rate is up to 3.0% which is too high.  In 2020 it was 1.7% which should be close to his target.  

 

To be fair...One word:  D O R S E Y

 

His INT % is at its worst under Dorsey.  It's at his career avg of 2.4% under Brady and really its at 1.2% under Brady because one of his 2 INT's with Brady at OC was a hail mary and not off a targeted pass thrown.

 

4 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Are Allen’s stats being inflated here by counting total touchdowns rather than passing touchdowns.  That is commonly done by Allen supporters.  

 

First of all, the meat of the stats is INT per pass thrown...has nothing to do with TD's.

 

Second of all, running or passing, its a TD scored by the QB.  It counts the same on the board, to disregard it for him or any QB is pretty absurd.  Take away Hurts rushing TD's and his stats are terrible for example yet he is the MVP front runner.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Matt_In_NH]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

One word:  D O R S E Y

 

His INT % is at its worst under Dorsey.  It's at his career avg of 2.4% under Brady and really its at 1.2% under Brady because one of his 2 INT's with Brady at OC was a hail mary.

Not trying to be argumentative but his worst INT% was as a rookie which was Dabol I think.  And no way you can tell anything about Brady in two games, there is a lack of samples.  I hope like heck he can have some 0 INT games down the stretch.   I don't think it is appropriate to just blame Dorsey for the INT's.  Many have been bad decisions made by Josh, IMO people have blinders on when it ever comes to criticizing Josh.  He can be both the great player that we love and someone who can commit less turnovers.

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First of all, the meat of the stats is INT per pass thrown...has nothing to do with TD's.

 

Second of all, running or passing, its a TD scored by the QB.  It counts the same on the board, to disregard it for him or any QB is pretty absurd.  Take away Hurts rushing TD's and his stats are terrible for example yet he is the MVP front runner.  

Does a fumble lost count the same as an INT then?   Also, you cannot put people like Montana and Marino in this conversation without adjusting for their era.  QB's have gotten way more efficient across the board, Allen should be compared to Mahomes, Jackson, Herbert, Rodgers and others playing today

[BillMafia716ix]

He leads the league in turnovers every year. That’s not a coincidence. It’s facts

Edited November 29, 2023 by BillMafia716ix

[BillsFan130]

Yep. I don’t know why people get caught up so much in the INTs.

 

Does he have to limit them at times?

For sure.

 

But we see how ordinary he is when “Josh “ isnt allowed to be “Josh”

 

Got to take some bad with the greatness

[Success]

8 minutes ago, BillMafia716ix said:

He leads the league in turnovers every year. That’s not a coincidence. It’s facts

 

He also leads in TD's.

 

[DuckyBoys]

He's had some extraordinarily bad luck with picks this year  We can always go back to Capt Checkdown type of qb and eliminate a lot of those picks  Its fun watching your qb checkdown on 3rd and 25

[Dablitzkrieg]

Yes, yes he is 

[Freddie's Dead]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

 

Stop confusing us with facts!  What about the fact that he's thrown an INT in 8 straight games, huh?  He sucks, I tell ya!!

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

I agree the media overblows Josh Allen's turnovers (you must include fumbles, not just interceptions).

But that doesn't mean he can't do better.  He does have the most in the NFL this year, and over the last 4-5 years.

 

 

For me, the question is what he provides to the team vs. what he takes away.

He's got 209 touchdowns in 89 career games (2.34 average per game), along with countless 1st-down conversions that nobody else in the league could manage to make.  Compare that to 96 turnovers (1.07 per game).

 

If you look at the Bills losses over the last 4-5 seasons, I would say very few were due to excessive turnovers.  At the same time, the Bills probably don't make the playoffs in any of those years without the special contributions of Allen.

 

 

Under Dorsey, Allens INT % was 17% higher than under Daboll or even Brady. Technically if you don't count the hail mary INT, Allen has 1 INT on real throws in 2 games under Brady and his INT % is half what it was under Dorsey, although the sample size is way too small.  But even if you count the hail mary his INT % is the same as Daboll which is much better than Dorsey.  

 

And no disrespect, but fumbles are not part of the equation when discussing his rate of throwing interceptions, which is what I was addressing here, the media's narrative around how many interceptions Josh throws.  

[ALG1130]

The turnover discussion is exhausting/low hanging fruit. Obviously none of us want him to turn the ball over(and he could clean those up), or give the other team momentum when he does, but outside of The Jets game, I can't think of any this season where his turnovers outright cost the team. It's a low hanging fruit discussion at this point. Usually when he screws up, he atones for it, as he did against The Eagles, and The Broncos. We don't have other players stepping up to the plate when he puts us into position to win, and that is more the problem than anything else. We are literally going to have to score and get the lead of a game with 1 second on the clock at this rate, or blow the other team out, because those are our only chances of winning these days.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

16 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

He's had some extraordinarily bad luck with picks this year  We can always go back to Capt Checkdown type of qb and eliminate a lot of those picks  Its fun watching your qb checkdown on 3rd and 25

 

Coming into the Philly game, I saw Dan Orlovsky say that Josh was tied with CJ Stroud as the 7th best in the NFL on throwing the least amount of interceptable passes, yet he still leads the NFL in INT's.  So why is that...well it suggests two things...good throws by Josh that turn into INT's from a mistake by the receiver and more volume on attempts than lots of other QB's.  

[BullBuchanan]

turnovers are a byproduct of his poor decision making. For every turnover, he has 3-5 more throw into multiple coverages, a missed progression, a bad call of when to stay or bail in the pocket, and when to fight for an extra half yard vs taking a massive hit. He may do just fine on an SAT, but on a football field he's got terrible judgement.

To be his best, he needs an offense that makes the decisions for him, because he's not going to outsmart any defenses and he'll rarely even see the holes.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Coming into the Philly game, I saw Dan Orlovsky say that Josh was tied with CJ Stroud as the 7th best in the NFL on throwing the least amount of interceptable passes, yet he still leads the NFL in INT's.  So why is that...well it suggests two things...good throws by Josh that turn into INT's from a mistake by the receiver and more volume on attempts than lots of other QB's.  

Some of it really just variance

 

Don't know if anyone watched the Texans Jags game but Stroud threw Tank Dell the same pass vs the same DB that Allen went deep to Diggs in London, Dell made the contested catch and vs us the DB made the contested INT

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

Add fumbles please

[Alphadawg7]

52 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Not trying to be argumentative but his worst INT% was as a rookie which was Dabol I think.  And no way you can tell anything about Brady in two games, there is a lack of samples.  I hope like heck he can have some 0 INT games down the stretch.   I don't think it is appropriate to just blame Dorsey for the INT's.  Many have been bad decisions made by Josh, IMO people have blinders on when it ever comes to criticizing Josh.  He can be both the great player that we love and someone who can commit less turnovers.

 

I was referring to seasons...I said worst period - as in what was Josh INT % during the period with Daboll vs the his INT % with Dorsey.  And you are only furthering my point as the first 2 years Daboll had hm, Josh was raw and had very little talent or weapons around Josh.  Yet Josh INT % was still significantly lower during the time with Daboll than with Dorsey.  

 

And yes, sample size is small with Brady, but you can't dismiss that mid season the offense went from 20.5 PPG against weak defenses the previous 6 games to 33 PPG against tough defenses in Brady's first 2 games with the same personnel and not having the luxury of spending a whole offseason putting his stamp on the offense (Dorsey had 2).  

 

Josh Allen since Brady took over has 710 yards and 7 TD's in 2 games against tough defenses, and one of those games was in a terrible rain storm.  NIGHT & DAY difference from Dorsey, so its relevant.  

 

52 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Does a fumble lost count the same as an INT then?   Also, you cannot put people like Montana and Marino in this conversation without adjusting for their era.  QB's have gotten way more efficient across the board, Allen should be compared to Mahomes, Jackson, Herbert, Rodgers and others playing today

 

Again, we are discussing frequency of interceptions, has nothing to do with fumbles.  

 

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Add fumbles please

 

Feel free to start a thread to discuss what ever you would like...but here, we are specifically talking about his interceptions and if he is really as prone to throwing Interceptions as he has made out to be.  Which has nothing to do with fumbles.  

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[90sBills]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Again, we are discussing frequency of interceptions, has nothing to do with fumbles.  

 

 

The narrative is Allen being turnover prone. Fumbles are turnovers. They hurt just as bad, if not worse, as interceptions. 

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I was referring to seasons...I said worst period - as in what was Josh INT % during the period with Daboll vs the his INT % with Dorsey.  And you are only furthering my point as the first 2 years Daboll had hm, Josh was raw and had very little talent or weapons around Josh.  Yet Josh INT % was still significantly lower during the time with Daboll than with Dorsey.  

 

And yes, sample size is small with Brady, but you can't dismiss that mid season the offense went from 20.5 PPG against weak defenses the previous 6 games to 33 PPG against tough defenses in Brady's first 2 games with the same personnel and not having the luxury of spending a whole offseason putting his stamp on the offense (Dorsey had 2).  

 

Josh Allen since Brady took over has 710 yards and 7 TD's in 2 games against tough defenses, and one of those games was in a terrible rain storm.  NIGHT & DAY difference from Dorsey, so its relevant.  

 

 

Again, we are discussing frequency of interceptions, has nothing to do with fumbles.  

 

 

Feel free to start a thread to discuss what ever you would like...but here, we are specifically talking about his interceptions and if he is really as prone to throwing Interceptions as he has made out to be.  Which has nothing to do with fumbles.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

 

The narrative is Allen being turnover prone. Fumbles are turnovers. They hurt just as bad, if not worse, as interceptions. 

Allen doesn’t turn it over a lot, but let’s not talk about his fumbles is pretty weak tbh. Especially when you count his rushing TD’s.

Edited November 29, 2023 by FireChans

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

Allen doesn’t turn it over a lot, but let’s not talk about his fumbles is pretty weak tbh. 

 

No, read the thread title and OP.  This thread is discussing the narrative around his interceptions which if you turn on a TV is what is predominantly being discussed.  Again, if you or the other poster you quoted want to start your own thread to talk about a completely different topic, then feel free to do so and I will be happy to participate in it.  But the thread title and OP very specifically identified the topic of this conversation.  

 

8 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

 

The narrative is Allen being turnover prone. Fumbles are turnovers. They hurt just as bad, if not worse, as interceptions. 

 

No, his interceptions and leading the NFL right now in interceptions is predominantly what is being discussed.  Regardless, this thread is discussing the narrative around him being prone to interceptions and if that is accurate or not.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[BBFL]

You talk to another teams fans and Josh is brought up, the majority think he’s the real deal. 
 

Weird how some of our fans won’t accept that. He has flaws but the talent is off the charts.