Is Josh Allen really as INT prone as being made out to be? Spoiler Alert - NO

[Alphadawg7]

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

[WotAGuy]

I feel like statistical comparisons are more relevant against his peers than ex players.  The game has changed so much, even since Brees started playing. 

[Dillenger4]

Compelling argument - thanks for sharing! Makes sense. I would love to see interception at "a bad time in game" stat. Josh is #3 all-time. Google it....

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

I feel like statistical comparisons are more relevant against his peers than ex players.  The game has changed so much, even since Brees started playing. 

 

CORRECTION:  I said 3rd because I saw a stat about that on Twitter, but when I went back it wasn't the same stat.  I will need to go do a check myself on the current ones, so don't want to give you bad info.  After doing a quick check amongst the better QB's of Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Herbert, Lamar, Tua, and Burrow.  

 

On that spot check, it went Mahomes and Hurts as top 2, then Herbert and Lamar were just above Allen, then it was Allen with Burrow slightly behind him, and Tua was far back at 2.4 to 1.  So he was at 5th not 3rd before checking everyone else.  But him, Lamar, Herbert, and Burrow were all pretty closely grouped.  Hurts has a high INT rate compared to passing TD's, but he has so many tush push rushing TD's that it makes his TD to INT rate pretty good.  

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[BuffBillsForLife]

Leave Brit Brett alone!

[WotAGuy]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Ok, he is 3rd in the NFL amongst his peers now behind only Rodgers and Mahomes.  

That’s what is important - how he stacks up against the Hurts, Mahomes, Jacksons of the current group.  Statistically Josh is right up there, but he is unique in his ability to make something out of nothing. Hard to measure that statistically. I’m glad the Bills don’t have to play against Josh.  He’s got to really piss ya off watching him do what he does as an opponent. 

[TheWei44]

Nice work here!  And it is key to measure it this way (picks relative to throws) - So many stats thrown around these days fail to account for 17-game season, changes in rules, whether QB sits most of his first year, etc.  This is much more of a pure metric.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by TheWei44

[Success]

To me, the ratio part is the most important.

 

JA knows how to score TD's.

 

[PatsFanNH]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

OMG while I agree, You shouldn’t comparing his stats to guys who have played like a decade longer or more than him just isn’t a good comparison! Farve has more Int Than any other QB in NFL history! He owns that record by a lot! 
 

the problem for Allen is a lot of his INT the last 8 games have turned into points for the other team.. and with every loss less than a TD those end up being huge.. and just like the QB gets to much credit for wins they get just as much blame for losses. 

[zman44]

I’m all for your argument but it seems like you’re giving Josh rushing TDs with his TD to Int rate and not including fumbles which he did have a pretty big problem with.   Would need to re do the other QBs ratios accordingly but I’d imagine his fumbles are much higher than most QBs.  

[Alphadawg7]

13 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

That’s what is important - how he stacks up against the Hurts, Mahomes, Jacksons of the current group.  Statistically Josh is right up there, but he is unique in his ability to make something out of nothing. Hard to measure that statistically. I’m glad the Bills don’t have to play against Josh.  He’s got to really piss ya off watching him do what he does as an opponent. 

 

See my correction on my comment above where I misread a tweet that said 3rd, but it was talking a different ratio.  So I went back and edited my comment to reflect that so you don't get wrong info.  

[H2o]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

And all of the bold/underlined QB's are in the HOF. This is what I was talking about with the clown world photo "building the worst QB" bull crap. Many people are stupid and have trouble developing a rational thought of their own, so they repeat whatever clown on social media or some "sports" network says. The bobbleheads in sports media they listen to still hold that ax to the grindstone every chance they get. Completely clueless insights from most of them with constant regurgitation of the same ole feces based off of a single play or taking a quick glance at a stat line. It's cool though. Hopefully Josh gets to hoist a Lombardi one day (which I still believe happens) and then does this during the press conference. 

 

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, zman44 said:

I’m all for your argument but it seems like you’re giving Josh rushing TDs with his TD to Int rate and not including fumbles which he did have a pretty big problem with.   Would need to re do the other QBs ratios accordingly but I’d imagine his fumbles are much higher than most QBs.  

 

Correct, I did not include fumbles as the meat of the thread was addressing the media narrative that Josh in interception prone, so it was how often does he really throw interceptions.  

 

For the TD to INT rate, I did include rushing TD's for all QB's as a comparison to how often he throws an INT vs scoring a TD as this again was addressing the narrative about his interception totals being too high.  

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Andrew Son]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Correct, I did not include fumbles as the meat of the thread was addressing the media narrative that Josh in interception prone, so it was how often does he really throw interceptions.  

 

For the TD to INT rate, I did include rushing TD's for all QB's as a comparison to how often he throws an INT vs scoring a TD as this again was addressing the narrative about his interception totals being too high.  

 

Note:  Josh has also reduced his fumbles quite a bit and also has zero fumbles in his career in the post season.

Didn't he have that ridiculous lateral fumble against HOU?

Looks like he has 8 postseason fumbles to me?

[Alphadawg7]

32 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

OMG while I agree, You shouldn’t comparing his stats to guys who have played like a decade longer or more than him just isn’t a good comparison! Farve has more Int Than any other QB in NFL history! He owns that record by a lot! 
 

the problem for Allen is a lot of his INT the last 8 games have turned into points for the other team.. and with every loss less than a TD those end up being huge.. and just like the QB gets to much credit for wins they get just as much blame for losses. 

 

The problem is to compare them to all time greats, that means their careers are over.  And I included many recent greats who played in this era and Mahomes.  

And more importantly, to talk about his "last 8 games" without discussing the NIGHT and DAY difference between the Dorsey led offense avg 20.5 PPG for 6 of those games and the Joe Brady led offense avg 33 PPG for the other 2 is leaving out some SIGNIFICANT context.  

 

Allen already has the record for most TD in first 6 years and still has 5 more games to go to finish that 6th year.  Just watch Allen cook the league these final 5 games with the OC switch.  He is the 2nd best QB in the NFL and he is about to remind the world of that here down the stretch.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Andrew Son]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I only checked lost fumbles...which are the turnovers.  I found 0, could have been a mistake, but I saw 0 lost fumbles.  

I see 8 fumbles in 8 playoff games.  To go along with 56 regular season fumbles.  It's very hard to argue that he hasn't been a turnover machine.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

Couldn't agree more and have been saying the same things myself.

[mjt328]

I agree the media overblows Josh Allen's turnovers (you must include fumbles, not just interceptions).

But that doesn't mean he can't do better.  He does have the most in the NFL this year, and over the last 4-5 years.

 

 

For me, the question is what he provides to the team vs. what he takes away.

He's got 209 touchdowns in 89 career games (2.34 average per game), along with countless 1st-down conversions that nobody else in the league could manage to make.  Compare that to 96 turnovers (1.07 per game).

 

If you look at the Bills losses over the last 4-5 seasons, I would say very few were due to excessive turnovers.  At the same time, the Bills probably don't make the playoffs in any of those years without the special contributions of Allen.

 

[Matt_In_NH]

I make this argument all the time but people dont want to hear it.  However his INT% is going up not down.  This year his INT rate is up to 3.0% which is too high.  In 2020 it was 1.7% which should be close to his target.  

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Didn't he have that ridiculous lateral fumble against HOU?

Looks like he has 8 postseason fumbles to me?

 

Yeah you are right, not sure why one site showed 0...just double checked stat muse and Allen has 2 career lost post season fumbles.  So seems correct answer is 2 actually.  Thanks for pointing that out

 

5 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I see 8 fumbles in 8 playoff games.  To go along with 56 regular season fumbles.  It's very hard to argue that he hasn't been a turnover machine.

 

He doesn't have 56 fumble turnovers though...he has only 23 lost fumbles, those are the only ones that have been turnovers.  And all the other all time greats had fumbles too I did not factor in.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7