AFC Standings, schedules, & Rooting Interests FINAL 1/7/24 BILLS 2 Seed!

[Process]

Broncos are +270 to make the playoffs for anyone thinking they are a sure thing 

[Buffalo03]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

Yep. That's two losses.

 

It's possible, though highly improbable, for those teams to go 9-0 and not lose a single game.

if we don't win out, we don't make the playoffs.

 

It's that simple.

Not even worth discussing IMO.

We can make it with one loss if a couple teams stumble 

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

We can make it with one loss if a couple teams stumble 

 

We would need more than half of the teams above us (WC) to lose 2 of their last 3 games.

 

Highly improbable.

[Buffalo03]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

We would need more than half of the teams above us (WC) to lose 2 of their last 3 games.

 

Highly improbable.

I played around with the playoff machine and got us in at 10-7 with a loss to Miami. Denver is the biggest team in the way of it and they only need to lose one more. I had 2 different scenarios of us getting a 7th seed with the Bengals in 6th. I do agree that the easiest and best path is winning out and taking the division but there are other paths

[Gregg]

29 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

I played around with the playoff machine and got us in at 10-7 with a loss to Miami. Denver is the biggest team in the way of it and they only need to lose one more. I had 2 different scenarios of us getting a 7th seed with the Bengals in 6th. I do agree that the easiest and best path is winning out and taking the division but there are other paths

 

To many teams in the WC mix. Because of the losses to the Jets, Pats, Broncos a lot would have to go right for a Bills WC. Like you said the division is the best path and I think the odds are very good that the Bills vs Dolphins game will be for the division. Probably gets flexed to SNF as well.

[BigAl2526]

Obviously, Buffalo has two possible routes to the playoffs.  They could win the division or win a wild card spot.  In the division race, Miami suddenly hits a tough spot in their schedule.  They have to play Philadelphia and Baltimore in back to back weeks.  Then they get to finish up the season against Buffalo.  If Buffalo can win out, they would win the division title if Miami loses either of their games against Philadelphia or Baltimore.  

 

The wild card route is trickier.  There are three wild card spots, currently held by Cincinati, Cleveland and Indianapolis.  There is one additional team ahead of Buffalo, Houston, trying to displace a current wild card team. Next weekend Cincinati and Indianapolis both have games they should probably win. The other two teams ahead of Buffalo, Cleveland and Houston, play each other.  That will eliminate one oof them.  The following week Indianapolis plays a team they will probably beat (the Raiders).  So do Cleveland and Houston, whichever one is more of a threat to Buffalo at that point.  Cincinnati, however, plays Kansas City.  If Buffalo wins out and Cincinati loses to Kansas City, Buffalo guarantees themselves at least a wild card spot.  There is another chance if Cincinati beats Houston in week 17.  Cleveland and Cincinati face each other in their season finale.  One will eliminate the other if both are still in the picture for a wild card spot.  If Houston is in the picture instead of Cleveland at that point, well, they have to play Indianapolis in the season finale for those two teams. They can't both win.   

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

I played around with the playoff machine and got us in at 10-7 with a loss to Miami.

 

Edit: I thought you meant "loss to Miami" as in, Miami loses a game. Not that we lose to them.

 

.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Einstein

[Roundybout]

 

Mild Indianapolis news 

[Buffalo03]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

You should double check that, because it’s not possible for us to get in at 10-7 with just a Miami loss. 

 

You would need three Miami losses. Or two other teams ahead of Buffalo to lose two of their next three.

There doesn't need to be 3 Miami losses. We can get in at 10-7 with a loss to Miami with other teams dropping some games

[JimmyNoodles]

27 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

There doesn't need to be 3 Miami losses. We can get in at 10-7 with a loss to Miami with other teams dropping some games

Yes, that's right.  Don't know if this has been posted but it's pretty cool tool.  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html

[Einstein]

46 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

There doesn't need to be 3 Miami losses. We can get in at 10-7 with a loss to Miami with other teams dropping some games

 

 

Think through this (for the Division):

Miami is 10-4. The absolute WORST they can do, if they lose all 3 remaining games, is 10-7. 

If the Bills lose another game, the BEST they can do is 10-7.

Therefore, if the Bills lose another game, Miami has to lose ALL THREE remaining games, for the Bills to win the division.
 

As for the Wild Card:

 

If the Bills lose another game (to anyone), they would need TWO of these teams (CIN, IND, HOU, JAX), to lose 2 of their next 3 games.

 

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Einstein

[JimmyNoodles]

If Buffalo wins the next two and drops the Miami game we have a 53% chance to get in as a wild card.    

[Starr Almighty]

2 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

Obviously, Buffalo has two possible routes to the playoffs.  They could win the division or win a wild card spot.  In the division race, Miami suddenly hits a tough spot in their schedule.  They have to play Philadelphia and Baltimore in back to back weeks.  Then they get to finish up the season against Buffalo.  If Buffalo can win out, they would win the division title if Miami loses either of their games against Philadelphia or Baltimore.  

 

The wild card route is trickier.  There are three wild card spots, currently held by Cincinati, Cleveland and Indianapolis.  There is one additional team ahead of Buffalo, Houston, trying to displace a current wild card team. Next weekend Cincinati and Indianapolis both have games they should probably win. The other two teams ahead of Buffalo, Cleveland and Houston, play each other.  That will eliminate one oof them.  The following week Indianapolis plays a team they will probably beat (the Raiders).  So do Cleveland and Houston, whichever one is more of a threat to Buffalo at that point.  Cincinnati, however, plays Kansas City.  If Buffalo wins out and Cincinati loses to Kansas City, Buffalo guarantees themselves at least a wild card spot.  There is another chance if Cincinati beats Houston in week 17.  Cleveland and Cincinati face each other in their season finale.  One will eliminate the other if both are still in the picture for a wild card spot.  If Houston is in the picture instead of Cleveland at that point, well, they have to play Indianapolis in the season finale for those two teams. They can't both win.   

You might want to tell the Eagles that Miami is suddenly on their schedule in the last 3 games

[FilthyBeast]

For me it's still division title or bust because I see very little chance of this team winning 3 straight road playoff games to get to the SB because of of Mc/Allen history is such games.

 

So to secure at least one home playoff game is huge for a number of reasons and I believe the Bills are still in play for as high as the #2 seed in the AFC right now should certain things happen (i.e. KC losing just one more game, AFC South winner finishing 10-7)

[BigAl2526]

24 minutes ago, Starr Almighty said:

You might want to tell the Eagles that Miami is suddenly on their schedule in the last 3 games

Oops.  I was going by memory on that one.  Switch out Philly and replace with Dallas, also a top team if you don't pay too much attention to the Dallas collapse against Buffalo.

[Donuts and Doritos]

5 hours ago, Starr Almighty said:

If the Jags 8-7 lose this week and Bills 9-6 win that  breaker goes bye bye with only 1 loss

Right, that's 2 loses we need from the Jags to overcome the tie breaker. Only need 1 loss by the Phins, or Bengals & Texans.

[RichRiderBills]

3 hours ago, JimmyNoodles said:

If Buffalo wins the next two and drops the Miami game we have a 53% chance to get in as a wild card.    

 

This is about right.

 

Playing with the calculator, seems like we have smooth sailing if those Steelers at home can beat Bengals next week. 

[Rew]

9 hours ago, Beast said:

Did you see when I posted what I did? My act is getting tiresome? Know what you are talking about before you run your lips.

 

And I’ll stand by what I said when I said it. I saw no way for the Bills to win out. That doesn’t make me less of a fan. The Bills were playing like ***** when I said that.

You standing by what you said is the challenge.  You were wrong then, and you are wrong now.  If you said "it's unlikely they win out" or "if they play like they did against the pats they could lose out" I doubt anyone would have an issue.  Being so absolute that them winning out was/is impossible is just crazy.  Any team "could" win out.  Even the Panthers or Cards at this point could win out.  It would be unlikely, and surprising, but not unprecedented and not breaking the laws of the universe.

[JimmyNoodles]

1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

This is about right.

 

Playing with the calculator, seems like we have smooth sailing if those Steelers at home can beat Bengals next week. 

F’n bungles. Their luck needs to run out. Playing with that calculator the Bills can clinch a birth before week 18 if everything breaks right.  Admittedly that’s a long shot but you never know. 

[Buffalo03]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

 

Think through this (for the Division):

Miami is 10-4. The absolute WORST they can do, if they lose all 3 remaining games, is 10-7. 

If the Bills lose another game, the BEST they can do is 10-7.

Therefore, if the Bills lose another game, Miami has to lose ALL THREE remaining games, for the Bills to win the division.
 

As for the Wild Card:

 

If the Bills lose another game (to anyone), they would need TWO of these teams (CIN, IND, HOU, JAX), to lose 2 of their next 3 games.

 

 

And you don't think it's possible that 2 of those 4 mediocre teams lose 2 of their next 3?