8th late-game defensive meltdown this season

[HomeskillitMoorman]

10 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Wow. I agree that it’s probably time to move on, but do you have zero respect for what we has done here? I don’t think he is championship caliber, but he has coaching chops. And he made this city respectable again (football wise). I will always have a fondness for McD, even though I will also admit he didn’t bring the hardware home.

 

To be honest what bugs me most about him at the moment is that he took so long to let Dorsey go. How many more games would we have won with the offense we have seen the last 2 games?

He’s had Allen to bail him out for a long time. This year he’s finally just been fully exposed. 
 

He’s no different than Jauron. 

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, finn said:

I'm speaking out of turn because I didn't do the research, but my impression is that Bass is reliable when the Bills are in charge of the game but chokes in a close game when the team really needs the points. I wonder if reality bears out my impression. 

He's been terrible this year

 

like bottom of the league bad

 

[mjt328]

Yep.  It's happened way too many times to be a trend.

 

Every offense in the league has their normal offense, their red zone offense and their 2-minute offense.

Sean McDermott's defense consistently does great against the first two.  It collapses over and over against the third.

 

At this point, it can't be a coincidence.  It happens pretty much every time.  So the question must be asked.  How is McDermott adjusting to opponent's 2-minute offense?  Are his coverage schemes too soft?  Is he blitzing too much?  Not blitzing enough?  Too predictable?  Whatever he is doing isn't working.  

 

 

 

[warrior9]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:29 AM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

The chargers have done it too with multiple coaches lol. We are having a very chargers season this year 

Except for the fact that Herbert has done nothing to be anointed “elite.” He’s a media darling because he’s tall and throws the ball far. He has won nothing and doesn’t have the wins/ stats of an elite QB. Traits? Sure. So do a lot of QBs. Josh has been in the MVP running, he’s been to the AFCCG. He’s won 3 division titles in a row. Herbert can’t sniff that and I can’t believe people still think this guy is elite. 

[Charles Romes]

I’m looking at the play by plays and we did not even force a single fourth down before field goal range against the pats, broncos, or eagles (either drive). Only a few third downs were even forced and those were pretty much in field goal range.  No different than an up-by-20 prevent defense. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

33 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Except for the fact that Herbert has done nothing to be anointed “elite.” He’s a media darling because he’s tall and throws the ball far. He has won nothing and doesn’t have the wins/ stats of an elite QB. Traits? Sure. So do a lot of QBs. Josh has been in the MVP running, he’s been to the AFCCG. He’s won 3 division titles in a row. Herbert can’t sniff that and I can’t believe people still think this guy is elite. 

That’s kind of a self fulfilling prophecy though lol. Nobody would say Josh is elite either if he had the exact stats he’s had the last few years and the team hovered around .500.  It’d be the same ‘he’s got good stats but he’s not a winner/they lose because he turns the ball over’ argument..  

 

Herbert’s got 114tds, 41 ints, about 17k yards passing in his 4 year career.
That’s an average season of 29 passing tds, 10ints, 4250 yards.  
 

Josh is 162tds(passing)/73 ints/21611 in 6 years.

 Averages of 27 passing tds/12 ints/3601 passing yards 

the bills defense has just been way better than the chargers in the regular season the last few years but this year we are full chargering it up by folding on defense with a chance to win every single time 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, peterpan said:

Driving down the field in a minute for a score isn’t hard anymore.  In fact, it’s a given.

 

I believe there was a team a couple years ago that quickly drove down for a FG in a tightly contested AFC divisional game. I believe they had somewhere between 12 and 14 seconds left. If only McDermott had seen this game maybe he would have known better!

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I believe there was a team a couple years ago that quickly drove down for a FG in a tightly contested AFC divisional game. I believe they had somewhere between 12 and 14 seconds left. If only McDermott had seen this game maybe he would have known better!

I’m not a fan of the icing the kicker timeout but the defensive timeouts were followed up by a false start and a huge no gain play keeping them in miracle fg range. If they pick up 4-5 yards there they make the field goal considerably easier.  We are all over the defensive timeouts when the result that follows is bad but nobody talks about them when there’s a good result.
 

Of course the miracle worked out though because why wouldn’t it 😂. The odds of us winning on a missed fg if we held them to no gain on that third down were much much higher than us going down the field in 20 seconds with 3 timeouts imo.  That fg was like a 1/100 type play 

 

still absolutely hate the icing the kicker timeout though so I think some of the criticism is completely justified 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I believe there was a team a couple years ago that quickly drove down for a FG in a tightly contested AFC divisional game. I believe they had somewhere between 12 and 14 seconds left. If only McDermott had seen this game maybe he would have known better!

You don't have to look that far! Scroll down and note the final possession: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202211240det.htm

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I’m not a fan of the icing the kicker timeout but the defensive timeout was followed up by a huge no gain play keeping them in miracle fg range. If they pick up 4-5 yards there they make the field goal considerably easier.  We are all over the defensive timeouts when the result that follows is bad but nobody talks about them when there’s a good result.
 

Of course the miracle worked out though because why wouldn’t it 😂. The odds of us winning on a missed fg if we held them to no gain on that third down were much much higher than us going down the field in 20 seconds with 3 timeouts imo.  

Imo if you're going to burn a timeout on defense it better be to dial up something that produces a chance for a turnover or negative yardage. Otherwise save them for offense

[May Day 10]

It happened a bit last year too.  Jets and Minnesota come to mind.

 

Detroit's offense was an unstoppable force at the end too.  If allen didn't hit that miracle pass to diggs, the lions were winning

[Nephilim17]

Pretty damning. Thanks, OP.

[Shaw66]

12 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

He's easy to plan for.  

I think this is correct.  Easy to plan for. 

 

He gets his success out of disguise - he makes it hard for the QB to recognize what's coming until after the snap.  The thing about that strategy is that everyone can plan for it, and the teams with mediocre QBs, or worse, have trouble because their QB can't make the reads in time.  However, the teams with good QBs can make the reads, and then the defense is easy to attack.  So, Mahomes, Hurts, Burrow, that girl who plays for the Jags, they're all saying, "Keep bringing those disguises."

 

What's working on defense these days is a lot of disciplined, half-crazed defenders chasing the ball and hitting ferociously.  That's not McD's style.  

Edited November 28, 2023 by Shaw66

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Imo if you're going to burn a timeout on defense it better be to dial up something that produces a chance for a turnover or negative yardage. Otherwise save them for offense

I could def see it going either way on the defensive timeouts…holding your opponent to -5 yards there was huge is all I was trying to say.  I can’t recall ever seeing an incomplete pass in that situation that was honestly kind of shocking 

 

the icing the kicker timeout was 100%

unnecessary and gave us 0 value 

 

im curious if bass’ struggles factored in…like do you risk a turnover to kick a long fg in bad weather that he’s likely gonna miss anyway? Idk 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

You don't have to look that far! Scroll down and note the final possession: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202211240det.htm

 

McDermott's excuse for kneeling it down after this one was the rain... I mean how clueless can you be? At what point in this game did the rain slow our offense down?

 

Also not enough discussion has been devoted to him kicking the XP after our go ahead TD (instead of going for 2 to make it a 4 point game) and not going for it on 4th and 6 in OT. Our defense hadn't been stopping the Eagles offense at all. I usually lean conservative, but this is the exact type of game scenario where you have to let your offense win the game for you. Three separate occasions in the final minutes where he inexplicably trusted our defense over our offense - kick the XP instead of going for 2, kneel down with 20 seconds left, kick a FG instead of going for it on 4th and 6.

 

And we will have to win multiple consecutive games like this to ever win in the playoffs and win a Super Bowl! What has McDermott ever shown to make us think he can ever lead the team to do that?

[FireChans]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

McDermott's excuse for kneeling it down after this one was the rain... I mean how clueless can you be? At what point in this game did the rain slow our offense down?

 

Also not enough discussion has been devoted to him kicking the XP after our go ahead TD (instead of going for 2 to make it a 4 point game) and not going for it on 4th and 6 in OT. Our defense hadn't been stopping the Eagles offense at all. I usually lean conservative, but this is the exact type of game scenario where you have to let your offense win the game for you. Three separate occasions in the final minutes where he inexplicably trusted our defense over our offense - kick the XP instead of going for 2, kneel down with 20 seconds left, kick a FG instead of going for it on 4th and 6.

 

And we will have to win multiple consecutive games like this to ever win in the playoffs and win a Super Bowl! What has McDermott ever shown to make us think he can ever lead the team to do that?

Go for two and risk making it a 2 point game?

 

There are valid criticisms and then there are things like this.

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Go for two and risk making it a 2 point game?

 

Yes that's the risk. You accept a very likely win or a very likely loss. Instead of what we did which was almost guarantee OT considering how poor the defense had been up to that point. A FG drive by the Eagles was the most likely outcome by far. We could have had one play from the 2 yard line to almost certainly win the game... Yes it's absolutely a conversation at least worth having.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

McDermott's excuse for kneeling it down after this one was the rain... I mean how clueless can you be? At what point in this game did the rain slow our offense down?

 

Also not enough discussion has been devoted to him kicking the XP after our go ahead TD (instead of going for 2 to make it a 4 point game) and not going for it on 4th and 6 in OT. Our defense hadn't been stopping the Eagles offense at all. I usually lean conservative, but this is the exact type of game scenario where you have to let your offense win the game for you. Three separate occasions in the final minutes where he inexplicably trusted our defense over our offense - kick the XP instead of going for 2, kneel down with 20 seconds left, kick a FG instead of going for it on 4th and 6.

 

And we will have to win multiple consecutive games like this to ever win in the playoffs and win a Super Bowl! What has McDermott ever shown to make us think he can ever lead the team to do that?

I don’t think a single coach in the league is going for it on 4th and 6 in ot there.  Maybe some go for 2 on the td though idk.

 

i try to look at it as ‘how bad do you flame them if the decision doesn’t work out’ and going for that 4th and 6 would’ve been horrendous if it didn’t work.  Nobody would be patting the coaches on the back saying ‘at least your offense lost the game’ lol it would be an all time coaching gaffe 

 

4th and short id totally agree with you but 4th and 6 in any weather is pretty tough and factoring in the bills dropped like 8 passes in the game makes it even more unlikely 

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes that's the risk. You accept a very likely win or a very likely loss. Instead of what we did which was almost guarantee OT considering how poor the defense had been up to that point. A FG drive by the Eagles was the most likely outcome by far. We could have had one play from the 2 yard line to almost certainly win the game... Yes it's absolutely a conversation at least worth having.

Who has ever done that in the NFL?

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Who has ever done that in the NFL?

 

There have been several times that coaches have gone for 2 to win a game instead of 1 for a tie. Not sure about this exact scenario though. I would bet analytics encourages going for 2 there. But personally I just go off the flow of the game, and in this scenario it was obvious to me that the Eagles were going to drive for a FG and they have an almost automatic kicker, so by kicking the XP we basically forced the game into OT. So the question is do you go for OT or do you go for the win from the 2 yard line?

 

This was not the worst decision McDermott made in the game by any means, but it was part of a pattern in those final minutes of him inexplicably trusting his defense to get a stop instead of trusting his offense which was on fire to make one play and win the game.