Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[Buffalo03]

16 hours ago, vincec said:

His record in one score games in Buffalo is 24-24 in the regular season, and 2-3 in the playoffs, which seems reasonable. But I think the concern is that in the last three years, when the Bills have supposedly had his best teams, it’s 8-14 in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs. You would not expect that record from a top 5 NFL team. So, either the Bills have just gotten really unlucky the last few years or something is wrong. I’m not sure the problem is McDermott necessarily, but he is in charge of figuring it out.

Yes, 24-24. Fans who say he can't win close games make it sound like he's 0-48 lol. 2022 they won a lot of one score games. This year, they have won 2

Edited November 29, 2023 by Buffalo03

[Success]

On 11/27/2023 at 6:22 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

Just did a bunch of playoff simulators.

 

Obviously if we win out, we're in.  It'd be very, very hard for us not to get in winning out.

 

If Buffalo loses 1, I was actually surprised how many scenarios (plausible ones) they get in.

 

I just hope that's the offense we see the rest of the season.  If that's the offense (and more importantly, the Josh Allen) we see for the remainder of the season, anything is possible.

 

I think we CAN get through the rest of the season with 1 loss. I also wouldn't rule out running the table, but no team can ever count on that.  Weird things always happen (and if you're the Bills, they happen more frequently).

 

I agree about the offense, and it's actually a bit painful to see them play like we expected now.  It's only 2 games, so too early to make a definitive conclusion - but it seems like Dorsey's O held us back and likely cost us a game or 2.

 

It starts with KC, which seems oddly appropriate.  Get the win there, and we can start believing a little.

 

[DrBob806]

On 11/27/2023 at 12:40 PM, SCBills said:

Steelers and Browns are both playing with fire every game and are bound to start losing some games... but to date, they both have 4 losses and keep winning rock fights against meh opponents - so how are we to just believe that will stop happening?

Browns are really banged up, but their "meh" opponents they beat include SF, Ratbirds, Colts, & Steelers. Steelers & Browns are both "offensively challenged" but if they happen to get in, they're more than capable of knocking a team or 2 out. 

 

Texans are good, but also young, and could hit a rough patch.. but given their schedule, that's more of a hope than expectation.  

 

And now we have to worry about the Colts and Broncos.  

 

Dolphins could hit the skids with their final 2 games before our season finale, but they don't seem capable - yet - of losing to bad teams... and I don't love having to hope they remain a team that can't beat good teams.  

 

 

 

[Process]

Beat the chiefs and cowboys and we will make the playoffs. We aren't losing to the patriots chargers or dolphins with playoffs on the line. 

 

IMO. 

[Ray Stonada]

Update: these numbers have already changed, for the worse.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#&

 

Our current overall chance of making playoffs: 15%

 

If we lose to KC: 4%

 

If we lose to KC and then win out: 46%

 

Only two scenarios where our chance is above 50/50:

 

Win out, including KC and four more: 97%

 

Beat everyone except Dallas: 63%

 

 

 

[chongli]

On 11/27/2023 at 3:12 AM, Ray Stonada said:

I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone).

 

You must be in central Europe, like Germany, France, or Italy?

50 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Update: these numbers have already changed, for the worse.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#&

 

Our current overall chance of making playoffs: 15%

 

If we lose to KC: 4%

 

If we lose to KC and then win out: 46%

 

Only two scenarios where our chance is above 50/50:

 

Win out, including KC and four more: 97%

 

Beat everyone except Dallas: 63%

 

 

 

 

Then just win out. It's not that hard. With Josh and the way we played in Philly, we can beat anyone, all the way to a SB win.

[JerseyBills]

I think we're going to smoke kc

 

Maybe luck out and Mia rests starters

[Ray Stonada]

1 hour ago, chongli said:

 

You must be in central Europe, like Germany, France, or Italy?

 

Then just win out. It's not that hard. With Josh and the way we played in Philly, we can beat anyone, all the way to a SB win.

Germany.

 

If we get KC down, I will feel a lot more excited…

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

11 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Germany.

 

If we get KC down, I will feel a lot more excited…

Germany?!

 

Have they decided what they're going to do with the Kaiser? 🤔

[Ray Stonada]

19 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Germany?!

 

Have they decided what they're going to do with the Kaiser? 🤔

 

I just wish they'd open stores on Sunday

[QB Bills]

On 11/29/2023 at 12:12 PM, Process said:

Beat the chiefs and cowboys and we will make the playoffs. We aren't losing to the patriots chargers or dolphins with playoffs on the line. 

 

IMO. 

New here?

[RiotAct]

6 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I think we're going to smoke kc

 

Maybe luck out and Mia rests starters

we’ll beat Miami (assuming we have something to play for) anyway, even if they don’t rest any starters.   Josh owns that team, and they just lost one of their best defensive players for the season.

 

The Chiefs and Chargers games scare me the most out of the remaining 5.

[26TrapDraw]

On 11/27/2023 at 3:12 AM, Ray Stonada said:

I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone). So I did some calcuating of playoff odds as a distration, using the NYT simulator. 

 

If we win out: >99% chance of making it in

 

If we lose to KC only: 51%

If we lose to Cowboys: 63%

If we lose to the Chargers: 44%

If we lose to the Pats: 51%

If we lose to Miami: 45%

 

If we lose twice, no matter who: <10% chance

 

So there you have it.

 

Unfortunately, I am pessimistic about our chances to win close games, in the playoffs. In my opinion, you can pin this whole season (as well as the Houston playoff game and the 13 seconds game and a bunch of other games) on McD's soft defenses and bad strategy in crunchtime. I know all teams feel they should win more, but with the Buffalo Bills it is statistically indisputable. Our team loses far more than it should, given our offensive and defensive performance. I would love to see a stat that shows how much better or worse a team performs than it's statistical rankings. You could call it the Coaching Coefficient. My guess is McD would be pretty low.

 

I am bummed because no matter how hard we play (and these guys are playing hard, especially guys like Bernard or Floyd who are still not jaded by our past) we are hamstrung by this. It's like a dark cloud hanging over the team. And until that cloud is gone, it's hard to really enjoy this great bunch of players.

We need to win out and handle our business. If Miami losses against Dallas and  Baltimore ( very realistic) that means last week of the season would be for the division. Wouldn’t that be a peach.

[Governor]

I don’t understand the negativity. All we have to do is win out and then we just need like 6 teams to lose the rest of their games. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 minutes ago, Governor said:

I don’t understand the negativity. All we have to do is win out and then we just need like 6 teams to lose the rest of their games. 

 

[Governor]

Steelers are in trouble.

[RiotAct]

17 minutes ago, Governor said:

I don’t understand the negativity. All we have to do is win out and then we just need like 6 teams to lose the rest of their games. 

Is THAT all???  We’ve got this.

[Nephilim17]

11 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

Update: these numbers have already changed, for the worse.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#&

 

Our current overall chance of making playoffs: 15%

 

If we lose to KC: 4%

 

If we lose to KC and then win out: 46%

 

Only two scenarios where our chance is above 50/50:

 

Win out, including KC and four more: 97%

 

Beat everyone except Dallas: 63%

 

 

 

There we go: next week against KC is a playoff game PLUS we have to win at least 3 more...

 

I'm a Buffalo fan but if I had serious money on this, it would be be that the Bills don't make it.

[Chaos]

If the Bills run the table, and finish 11-6, they will almost certainly make the playoffs. 

If the Bills finish 10-7, it won't matter who they lost too, they will almost certainly miss the playoffs. 

[Governor]

1 hour ago, RiotAct said:

Is THAT all???  We’ve got this.

Well, there’s also the ties. We need 3 ties.