Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[transplantbillsfan]

Just did a bunch of playoff simulators.

 

Obviously if we win out, we're in.  It'd be very, very hard for us not to get in winning out.

 

If Buffalo loses 1, I was actually surprised how many scenarios (plausible ones) they get in.

 

I just hope that's the offense we see the rest of the season.  If that's the offense (and more importantly, the Josh Allen) we see for the remainder of the season, anything is possible.

[JerseyBills]

We're going to whoop kc 

[VW82]

I said this other places but I'm apathetic about playoffs at this point. Even if we make it, this team is going nowhere. We can't stop tripping over ourselves, and the idea that we're going to now is to pretend like everything we've seen to date didn't happen.

 

I feel like there's a been a death, and there has: current group's (very realistic) chances at a Superbowl. We could have won it any of the last three seasons. 

 

I blame bad luck. I blame McBeane (even though they're responsible for our shot). I blame everyone including myself for getting sucked in when I know better.

 

At the same time, I'm grateful for the chance to cheer for a SB-worthy team, and in particular a SB-worthy player in Josh. I was so wrong about him. What a delight! 

 

But I can't get excited for the rest of these games. Our cap is F'd and we need to rebuild. We need a new coach. Most importantly, we need some new hope and that isn't going to happen anytime soon. 

[Governor]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

The Offense played at an elite level yesterday.  Against a top defense, on the road, in bad weather.  
 

We ran 90+ plays.  1 turnover. 
 

His defensive starters were as healthy as they’ve been all season.   Nobody got hurt in game to stress the depth.  
 

McDermott, as usual, couldn’t get it done when it came to him as a HC and/or a DC.   
 

He failed us, again, on both fronts.  
 

Philly turned it over twice.  Philly’s playcalling for an entire half was ridiculous.   Sirianni, once again, found a way. 
 

The cherry on top…

 

They won the game on a play where they were in utter disbelief that anyone who watches film would give them that look.   They knew the game was over before they even snapped the ball. 
 

Sirianni > McDermott.  
 

McDermott never wins the chess match against the upper echelon coaches .. and it’s so, so noticeable. 

People here have totally lost their minds. When you score 34 points on offense and you have a defensive HC who sunk all of the teams resources into that defense for years, you should win 10 out of 10 times. It doesn’t matter “how” we got the 34 points or if Josh misses a throw here and there.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Governor

[Scott7975]

17 hours ago, Gman10 said:

Problem is we probably aren't beating all 3 of those teams. Id love it, but in two weeks we can easily be 6-7.

 

Yeah that is a problem.  We have the toughest remaining schedule in the league. Two of these games are going to be just as tough as the Philly game.  Josh is going to have to be the best player on the field for all of them just like he was last night.  He needs the help around him.  Bass can't miss two fgs for example. If that happens then we can run the table.

 

I agree with the other poster though.  If we do make it, Buffalo is not a team anyone wants to face.  We would be one of the best AFC teams in the playoffs if we pulled that off.  Every team in the AFC has flaws which is why the race is so tight this year.  We really blew it sticking with Dorsey.  We could be running for the 1 seed right now.  Instead that could be Baltimore or Miami that gets it.  KC might still get it but its not a given like years past.

17 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Which would be more heart wrenching?

 

Going 4-1 or 5-0 and losing agian in the wild-card or divisional rounds, or missing out.

 

Asking rhetorically, but who has any faith that even if we made it, that we'd do anything more.  

 

This "making the playoffs" thing, just like in the 90s, has gotten old.  

 

We have one of the best QBs in the game, the bar is significantly higher.  

 

 

 

I agree the bar is higher, but I just want to watch Bills football.  I don't want to be turning off my TV on Sundays early because I couldn't care less about watching any other team anymore.  Anything can happen in the playoffs.  If the offense really turned it around then this team is formidable.  There aren't any real scary teams in the AFC we can't hang with, as long as our O is clicking and Bass don't miss two damn FGs.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

9 hours ago, Governor said:

People here have totally lost their minds. When you score 34 points on offense and you have a defensive HC who sunk all of the teams resources into that defense for years, you should win 10 out of 10 times. It doesn’t matter “how” we got the 34 points or if Josh misses a throw here and there.

Somewhere in that plan, the 'complementary football' is letting you down. 🤔

[Ray Stonada]

If we do win out and make the playoffs that will buy McDermott another year from the Pegulas.

 

If we win a playoff game or better it probably buys him two more years.

 

If we get to the Super Bowl it buys him this board’s goodwill again.

 

(Unless we lose on a late defensive collapse…)

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

I agree the bar is higher, but I just want to watch Bills football.  I don't want to be turning off my TV on Sundays early because I couldn't care less about watching any other team anymore.  Anything can happen in the playoffs.  If the offense really turned it around then this team is formidable.  There aren't any real scary teams in the AFC we can't hang with, as long as our O is clicking and Bass don't miss two damn FGs.

 

Well, again, it was rhetorical.  In general I don't disagree.

 

I was simply asking which would be more heart-wrenching.  For me it would be underachieving in the playoffs as we now have a pattern of doing under McD, resulting in an egregious inexplicable loss.  

 

In shooting perfectly straight, I don't care much for the NFL.  It's a corrupt league with scripted games at least to some extent.  These official "mistakes" aren't always mistakes.  It's rampant now.  It's not longer driven by pure competition, it's driven by corporate greed.  If the Bills ever did move I would hardly if ever watch any games.  

 

The second that the NFL was directly linked to Vegas it was over.  

 

My only interest is our Bills.  I haven't watched a Super Bowl that we weren't in in years.  I hate the f'g commercials, the length of the game, the overly commercialized aspect to all of it.  It's not designed for football fans, it's designed to be a pop-culture attraction.  Even when I used to watch, I'd turn off or mute the entire halftime crap.  

 

But where I will disagree slightly with what you said, is that if I knew now that we'd "make the playoffs," but then lose decisively as we did last season with poor underachieving play and siht coaching, that would not be a fun, entertaining, much less enjoyable game to watch, for me.  So much so that I'd I knew ahead of time that that would happen, I probably wouldn't bother watching.   

 

Obviously we don't know these things in advance which is why we watch, so it's a weird angle.  But for me it'd be like watching your kid "play" baseball in the outfield, while he's thinking about bees and butterflies as the ball goes sailing over his mindless head.  

 

I think I'd be poking around on my phone at that point and asking my son why he's on the team after the game, suggesting that maybe he quit the team.  

 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by PBF81

[Buffalo Streaker]

Was it therapeutic to finally talk about that childhood baseball situation? Go ahead, let it out.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, VW82 said:

I said this other places but I'm apathetic about playoffs at this point. Even if we make it, this team is going nowhere. We can't stop tripping over ourselves, and the idea that we're going to now is to pretend like everything we've seen to date didn't happen.

 

I feel like there's a been a death, and there has: current group's (very realistic) chances at a Superbowl. We could have won it any of the last three seasons. 

 

I blame bad luck. I blame McBeane (even though they're responsible for our shot). I blame everyone including myself for getting sucked in when I know better.

 

At the same time, I'm grateful for the chance to cheer for a SB-worthy team, and in particular a SB-worthy player in Josh. I was so wrong about him. What a delight! 

 

But I can't get excited for the rest of these games. Our cap is F'd and we need to rebuild. We need a new coach. Most importantly, we need some new hope and that isn't going to happen anytime soon. 

 

If this is how you feel you have a short memory and don't understand how the NFL playoffs work. If you get in and you have an Elite QB, you have a chance to run the table and win the Super Bowl.

 

Just remember the 2021 season.  We played horribly for much of that season.  Even the end of the year when we won 4 straight were ugly wins.  Then we played the Patriots and KC in the playoffs and looked like the best team in the NFL, minus a collapse with 13 seconds.

 

Just get in.  Just ask the 2010 Green Bay Packers (10-6 Wildcard Super Bowl Winner), 2011 New York Giants (9-7 Wildcard Super Bowl Winner), 2012 Baltimore Ravens (10-6 Wildcard Super Bowl Winner), and 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5 Wildcard Super Bowl Winner).

 

Just get in.  We have Josh Allen.  Now it looks like we have an OC who knows what he's doing.  We have a chance.

[Lionel Hutz]

I don't get why so many of you are obsessed with making the playoffs. Have you been watching this team under McDermott the last few years? He can't win close games. Until he is gone the Bills have no chance of winning a championship.

[Buffalo03]

11 minutes ago, Lionel Hutz said:

I don't get why so many of you are obsessed with making the playoffs. Have you been watching this team under McDermott the last few years? He can't win close games. Until he is gone the Bills have no chance of winning a championship.

He doesn't win all close games but he has won quite a few

[Dablitzkrieg]

[vincec]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

He doesn't win all close games but he has won quite a few

His record in one score games in Buffalo is 24-24 in the regular season, and 2-3 in the playoffs, which seems reasonable. But I think the concern is that in the last three years, when the Bills have supposedly had his best teams, it’s 8-14 in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs. You would not expect that record from a top 5 NFL team. So, either the Bills have just gotten really unlucky the last few years or something is wrong. I’m not sure the problem is McDermott necessarily, but he is in charge of figuring it out.

Edited November 29, 2023 by vincec

[schoolhouserock]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:53 AM, boyst said:

tank and move all in to get MHJ.

I second this motion. All in favor?

[Ray Stonada]

44 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

I second this motion. All in favor?

Tanking when you are .500 or above feels crazy…

[Nextmanup]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:56 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

It’s hard to get anyone to tank in the nfl. They are playing for their jobs and if you go half speed in football, you can get lit up, 

No athletes, in any sport, on any team, have ever "tanked" in this sense.

 

Tanking does mean "players try to lose." It means management assembles a team maybe including coaching that, trying its best every game, is not very likely to be successful.

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 11/27/2023 at 6:02 AM, Ray Stonada said:

About our playoff chances:

 

We have 6 losses.

 

The division leaders are Miami, KC, Baltimore, and Jax.

 

There are 3 wildcard spots, and currently there are FIVE other teams with less than 6 losses, most of which have a better conference record.

 

No matter what we do, other than win out, it's gonna be tough.

 

I'm starting to wish we would lose the next two weeks and end the misery.

We'll know after the KC game where we stand.  I think these guys would play hard for Brady, but what do you do with McDermott?  Kidnap him or lock him in the basement. 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:24 AM, PBF81 said:

Which would be more heart wrenching?

 

Going 4-1 or 5-0 and losing agian in the wild-card or divisional rounds, or missing out.

 

Asking rhetorically, but who has any faith that even if we made it, that we'd do anything more.  

 

This "making the playoffs" thing, just like in the 90s, has gotten old.  

 

We have one of the best QBs in the game, the bar is significantly higher.  

 

 

We're only winning 2 more games.  NE & the Chargers.  We're finishing 8-9 which might get us Odunze?  Realistically the season was lost somewhere between Dorsey starting his 2nd season and Milano going down.  Everything bad we saw from McDermott had already been exposed a long time ago.

[PBF81]

11 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We're only winning 2 more games.  NE & the Chargers.  We're finishing 8-9 which might get us Odunze?  Realistically the season was lost somewhere between Dorsey starting his 2nd season and Milano going down.  Everything bad we saw from McDermott had already been exposed a long time ago.

 

The last five are going to be interesting.  

 

KC's better than we are.  Miami's more consistent.  We haven't won @ Chargers since the Knox/Fergy days.  Belichick will outcoach us, whether we win or not remains to be seen.  Dallas, at home, they're a better and more well-rounded team.