Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[Rocbillsfan1]

4 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

If Josh Allen can continue to play like he did yesterday. Winning out is not impossible.

Have you seen our coach though? 

2 hours ago, Gman10 said:

We are not making the playoffs. Even if we do, we are certainly not winning a Super Bowl. Let's chalk it up to being a learning year and be ready for next year with Milano back, etc..

A learning year, is this a joke lol. What is McDermott learning, how to continually be outcoached and lose games that statistically he shouldn’t? He’s highlighting if anything that he isn’t the right guy for the job.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

Work your simulator magic, to show how the Bills get into the playoffs ahead of all of the Browns, Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Titans.  If the Dolphins finish 12-5 and or better, 11-6 Bills will lose tiebreakers in almost every scenario.  Show a realistic scenario, where the Dolphins are 12-5, The Bills 11-6, and the Bills get in as a wildcard.  Otherwise you are posting out of your hat. 

 

 

You really think the Dolphins will finish with 12 wins with the Ravens, Cowboys and us on their schedule? I don't. They're a team that habitually folds near the end of the year. They could turn that around but I'd have to see it.

 

My guess is 10 or 11 wins. They could win 12. My guess is they won't. That would leave it up to us.

 

A realistic scenario where the Bills are 11-6, the Fins are 12-5 and the Bills make the playoffs? There are tons of them.

 

One?

Fins 12-5

Bills 11-6

Browns 11-6

Texans 10-7

Steelers 10-7

Colts 10-7

Broncos 9-6 

 

There are also plenty where we'd lose. That's generally the way theoreticals work, but we could very easily get in.

 

Last year in the AFC, two Wild Card winners had 10 wins and none had 11. Same the year before and that's all the experience we have with 17 game seasons.

 

Let's say that it's not just us but the Browns also who put up 11 for the first time this year. We're still in.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Thurman#1

[BigDingus]

A win vs KC would go a long way in boosting this team's confidence, but I'm worried there's not a lot of confidence going into the game. 

 

Thankfully, this team seems to always want to prove themselves against the Chiefs, so this may be the last chance to turn things around.

 

People give the Dolphins crap for only beating teams with losing records, but that just means they always beat who they SHOULD beat. If the Bills could've just done that, we wouldn't be in this situation right now 😕

[frostbitmic]

8-9 or 7-10 isn't good enough to make the playoffs.

[Nester]

Whelp, on to the draft.....

[Thurman#1]

7 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

A win vs KC would go a long way in boosting this team's confidence, but I'm worried there's not a lot of confidence going into the game. 

 

Thankfully, this team seems to always want to prove themselves against the Chiefs, so this may be the last chance to turn things around.

 

People give the Dolphins crap for only beating teams with losing records, but that just means they always beat who they SHOULD beat. If the Bills could've just done that, we wouldn't be in this situation right now 😕

 

 

All too true.

[SCBills]

Steelers and Browns are both playing with fire every game and are bound to start losing some games... but to date, they both have 4 losses and keep winning rock fights against meh opponents - so how are we to just believe that will stop happening?

 

Texans are good, but also young, and could hit a rough patch.. but given their schedule, that's more of a hope than expectation.  

 

And now we have to worry about the Colts and Broncos.  

 

Dolphins could hit the skids with their final 2 games before our season finale, but they don't seem capable - yet - of losing to bad teams... and I don't love having to hope they remain a team that can't beat good teams.  

 

 

[Livinginthepast]

Although I would love to make the playoffs because anything can happen, its tempered by the reality that even if we do, we have a coach who wont be able to make a decisive move in a game that will help us but actually is far more likely to blunder and hurt us. The amount of stars that would have to align for McD and this current team to win a SB would be staggering. We would need to pretty much play perfect offense in every playoff game and score 30+ points, We would need to have luck and actually be the recipient of a freak play (for once), we would need good officiating (Huge longshot) and we would need our opponents to shoot themselves in the foot. All of this to mitigate the bad decisions that McD would make if in a high pressure close game (which he has difficulty winning post season). Its all possible but highly unlikely with our injuries and poor coaching.

[mannc]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I honestly had that thought today. Trade Diggs (save a bunch of money) draft Harrison and Rome O and we are loaded at receiver for great value for st least five years. 

Pipe dream of course, but no reason we can’t land a terrific WR in round 1, even without trading up. Rome O or Troy Franklin would be awesome.  One thing we’ve leaned from these loaded WR drafts is that there is no way to know which guy will turn out to be the best.

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

 

People give the Dolphins crap for only beating teams with losing records, but that just means they always beat who they SHOULD beat. If the Bills could've just done that, we wouldn't be in this situation right now 😕

I don’t really think the Dolphins are better than we are, but they always beat the teams they should, and we don’t.  What makes us so high variance and the Dolphins low variance? Or maybe they are just better….

[dorquemada]

4 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Playoff seeding based upon record: OUT!

Playoffs now determined by lottery ball drop machine.  "Hey, you never know!" 🙄

 

You know, that might be a fun idea in the NFL, keep the current playoff structure otherwise but add a team in each conference through a lottery.  It would be comedy gold to see a team like the Jets get a chance and go on a run

15 minutes ago, mannc said:

Pipe dream of course, but no reason we can’t land a terrific WR in round 1, even without trading up. Rome O or Troy Franklin would be awesome.  One thing we’ve leaned from these loaded WR drafts is that there is no way to know which guy will turn out to be the best.

I don’t really think the Dolphins are better than we are, but they always beat the teams they should, and we don’t.  What makes us so high variance and the Dolphins low variance? Or maybe they are just better….

 

The answer is coaching.  McDopey will get outcoached in the 2nd half by every single NFL coach.

[Freddie's Dead]

[nedboy7]

At least I’m now convinced that “13 seconds” saved us from a horrific collapse in the SB.  The gods are kind. 

[RiotAct]

Just now, nedboy7 said:

At least I’m now convinced that “13 seconds” saved us from a horrific collapse in the SB.  The gods are kind. 

we also would have had to beat the Bengals at home in the Championship Game - something the Chiefs were unable to do the following Sunday.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

About our playoff chances:

 

We have 6 losses.

 

The division leaders are Miami, KC, Baltimore, and Jax.

 

There are 3 wildcard spots, and currently there are FIVE other teams with less than 6 losses, most of which have a better conference record.

 

No matter what we do, other than win out, it's gonna be tough.

 

I'm starting to wish we would lose the next two weeks and end the misery.

Those other 5 teams play eachother quite a few times though.  Two will likely separate from the pack and beat up on the others.  Getting in at 10-7 as wildcard 3 is fairly likely if we can beat kc somehow 

 

not saying we’re capable of that necessarily just that the probability of getting in with 10 wins is better than people think 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[BullBuchanan]

The Bills team we saw yesterday probably loses 3/5. If there's a bet that I can make that they lose 2/5+, let me know because I'm very interested.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, Gman10 said:

We are not making the playoffs. Even if we do, we are certainly not winning a Super Bowl. Let's chalk it up to being a learning year and be ready for next year with Milano back, etc..

Huge if but if were entertaining this hypothetical that we win out or finish 4-1 I don’t see why we couldn’t win the superbowl 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

9 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

At least I’m now convinced that “13 seconds” saved us from a horrific collapse in the SB.  The gods are kind. 

Biblical character Job is actually nedboy7. 🤔

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

The Bills team we saw yesterday probably loses 3/5. If there's a bet that I can make that they lose 2/5+, let me know because I'm very interested.

Really?  I disagree.  Took a lot of luck for the eagles to pull that one out and they’re arguably the best team in the league that was playing at home

 

They wouldn’t hit both that jump ball to zaccheaus and 59 yard fg into the wind/rain once in probably 50 more tries 

 

what I don’t know is if we’ll play like that every game down the stretch.  I’m expecting a 3-2 finish and missing the playoffs by a game but 4-1 has a chance.  Winning out would be a miracle 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

20 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

You know, that might be a fun idea in the NFL, keep the current playoff structure otherwise but add a team in each conference through a lottery.  It would be comedy gold to see a team like the Jets get a chance and go on a run

 

The answer is coaching.  McDopey will get outcoached in the 2nd half by every single NFL coach.

The 'purists' would holler bloody murder.  Leave all the finagling to bad and/or crooked officiating. 😁

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Really?  I disagree.  Took a lot of luck for the eagles to pull that one out and they’re arguably the best team in the league that was playing at home

 

They wouldn’t hit both that jump ball to zaccheaus and 59 yard fg into the wind/rain once in probably 50 more tries 

 

what I don’t know is if we’ll play like that every game down the stretch.  I’m expecting a 3-2 finish and missing the playoffs by a game but 4-1 has a chance.  Winning out would be a miracle 

We wouldn't beat KC or Dallas with that effort for certain. Philly played like ass the first half. We should have put up 18 more points based on the opportunities we were handed, but we couldn't close. We won't get that lucky the next two weeks.

I expect the better McD in Miami to learn from his previous mistakes and give us a much tougher game unless it ends up being meaningless for them.