Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

23 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Work your simulator magic, to show how the Bills get into the playoffs ahead of all of the Browns, Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Titans.  If the Dolphins finish 12-5 and or better, 11-6 Bills will lose tiebreakers in almost every scenario.  Show a realistic scenario, where the Dolphins are 12-5, The Bills 11-6, and the Bills get in as a wildcard.  Otherwise you are posting out of your hat. 

 

Browns are 7-4, and to get to 11-6 would require 4-2 against this schedule - LAR, Jax, Chicago, Houston, NYJ, Cincy - Possible but... they don't have a QB so its hard to say.  

Steelers are 7-4 and to get to 11-6 would rerquire 4-2 against this schedule - zona, NE, Indy, Cincy, Seattle, Baltimore (might be resting starters but i doubt they let KC get home field if buffalo gives KC a 4th loss).  

Indianapolis is 6-5 and would need to go 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Tenn, Cincy, Pitt, atlanta, Vegas, Houston

Houston is 6-5 and would need to 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Denver, NYJ, Tenn, Cleveland, Tenn, Indy

Denver is 6-5 and would need to go 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Houston, LAC, Detroit, NE, LAC, LV

 

As bad as every like bad team is - theres no way all 5 of them don't drop a game to Chicago, Tennessee, LA chargers, Jets or NE, etc.  These are all flawed teams as much as buffalo, and in many cases much more than buffalo.  It'd take an epic stroke of bad luck to win out and miss the playoffs - but i think they can win 4 and still miss.  

 

I'll say this - i don't think any of those 5 teams wins 11 games, and i doubt buffalo does either.  

[Gman10]

We are not making the playoffs. Even if we do, we are certainly not winning a Super Bowl. Let's chalk it up to being a learning year and be ready for next year with Milano back, etc..

Edited November 27, 2023 by Gman10

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I'll say this - i don't think any of those 5 teams wins 11 games, and i doubt buffalo does either.  

Fair point

[Seventeen]

5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Browns are 7-4, and to get to 11-6 would require 4-2 against this schedule - LAR, Jax, Chicago, Houston, NYJ, Cincy - Possible but... they don't have a QB so its hard to say.  

Steelers are 7-4 and to get to 11-6 would rerquire 4-2 against this schedule - zona, NE, Indy, Cincy, Seattle, Baltimore (might be resting starters but i doubt they let KC get home field if buffalo gives KC a 4th loss).  

Indianapolis is 6-5 and would need to go 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Tenn, Cincy, Pitt, atlanta, Vegas, Houston

Houston is 6-5 and would need to 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Denver, NYJ, Tenn, Cleveland, Tenn, Indy

Denver is 6-5 and would need to go 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Houston, LAC, Detroit, NE, LAC, LV

 

As bad as every like bad team is - theres no way all 5 of them don't drop a game to Chicago, Tennessee, LA chargers, Jets or NE, etc.  These are all flawed teams as much as buffalo, and in many cases much more than buffalo.  It'd take an epic stroke of bad luck to win out and miss the playoffs - but i think they can win 4 and still miss.  

 

I'll say this - i don't think any of those 5 teams wins 11 games, and i doubt buffalo does either.  

 

Every year is different but Miami got in @ 9-8 last year with a conference record of 7-5. 10-7 might get it done.

[JoshAllin]

9 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

We are not making the playoffs. Even if we do, we are certainly not winning a Super Bowl. Let's chalk it up to being a learning year and be ready for next year with Milano back, etc..

Not winning the super bowl is what 31 other teams will be doing but being there is still impressive even if you lose

Edited November 27, 2023 by motorj

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Work your simulator magic, to show how the Bills get into the playoffs ahead of all of the Browns, Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Titans.  If the Dolphins finish 12-5 and or better, 11-6 Bills will lose tiebreakers in almost every scenario.  Show a realistic scenario, where the Dolphins are 12-5, The Bills 11-6, and the Bills get in as a wildcard.  Otherwise you are posting out of your hat. 

Steelers lose to Ravens, and Seahawks. They finish 11-6. They grab a wild card spot.

Colts lose to the Raiders, Steelers and the Texans. They finish 9-8.

 

Browns lose to the Jags, Rams and Texans. They finish 10-7 (I think they will actually lose more than this).

 

Texans lose to the Broncos. They finish 11-6. They snag a wild card spot.

Broncos lose to the Lions and split with the Chargers. They finish 10-7.

 

—

 

Bills get the third wild card in this scenario at 11-6, and there aren’t any major upsets. At 10-7 we miss on tie breakers to the Browns and Broncos think, but I think the Browns are going to finish worse than 10-7 and the Broncos could easily drop another game (like vs Texans).

Edited November 27, 2023 by DapperCam

[Big Turk]

I can't believe the odds are that high honestly

[Jauronimo]

2 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

If Josh Allen can continue to play like he did yesterday. Winning out is not impossible.

If this offense shows up the rest of the season, winning out is more likely than not.

[Drew21PA]

I mean Sean has to be right eventually

 

he Has single-handedly cost Josh Allen 3 comeback victories in close games this season

 

patriots

broncos

eagles

 

[Jauronimo]

38 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

We are not making the playoffs. Even if we do, we are certainly not winning a Super Bowl. Let's chalk it up to being a learning year and be ready for next year with Milano back, etc..

If we make the playoffs its because we won out beating Miami, Dallas, and KC.  If the Bills manage to get into the post season we will be the last team in the league any anyone wants to face.

[Jauronimo]

15 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

I mean Sean has to be right eventually

 

he Has single-handedly cost Josh Allen 3 comeback victories in close games this season

 

patriots

broncos

eagles

 

Don't even talk about the Pats and Broncos games.  Those games never should have come down to the wire.  The offense held a combined lead in those games of 4 minutes.  As in they trailed absolute trash teams all game and woke up for one scoring drive in the waning minutes of the game.  Josh Allen and the offense pissed away 6 quarters of football with turnovers and horrendous play creating the conditions for their heroic comebacks.

[Gman10]

23 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

If we make the playoffs its because we won out beating Miami, Dallas, and KC.  If the Bills manage to get into the post season we will be the last team in the league any anyone wants to face.

Problem is we probably aren't beating all 3 of those teams. Id love it, but in two weeks we can easily be 6-7.

[Drew21PA]

30 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Don't even talk about the Pats and Broncos games.  Those games never should have come down to the wire.  The offense held a combined lead in those games of 4 minutes.  As in they trailed absolute trash teams all game and woke up for one scoring drive in the waning minutes of the game.  Josh Allen and the offense pissed away 6 quarters of football with turnovers and horrendous play creating the conditions for their heroic comebacks.

….but did they have the lead at the end?

 

why does this only matter with the bills but hey we worship guys like Brady and manning that out their team ahead with 1 minute left and should win the game every time…

 

 

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, Drew21PA said:

….but did they have the lead at the end?

 

why does this only matter with the bills but hey we worship guys like Brady and manning that out their team ahead with 1 minute left and should win the game every time…

 

 

No, they lost those games by failing to put up points against ***** teams.

 

Did Brady and Manning make careers on terrible play for the 3 quarters followed by one competent scoring drive?

[RiotAct]

0.0%

[PBF81]

Which would be more heart wrenching?

 

Going 4-1 or 5-0 and losing agian in the wild-card or divisional rounds, or missing out.

 

Asking rhetorically, but who has any faith that even if we made it, that we'd do anything more.  

 

This "making the playoffs" thing, just like in the 90s, has gotten old.  

 

We have one of the best QBs in the game, the bar is significantly higher.  

 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by PBF81

[boyst]

2 hours ago, Negan said:

Chiefs L

Cowboys L

Chargers L

Patriots W

Dolphins L

Time for a higher draft pick, and hopefully McDermott gets fired 

i want to figure out what it takes to get MHJ.

[RiotAct]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Which would be more heart wrenching?

 

Going 4-1 or 5-0 and losing agian in the wild-card or divisional rounds, or missing out.

 

Asking rhetorically, but who has any faith that even if we made it, that we'd do anything more.  

 

This "making the playoffs" thing, just like in the 90s, has gotten old.  

 

We have one of the best QBs in the game, the bar is significantly higher.  

 

missing out completely, IMO.

[PBF81]

17 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

missing out completely, IMO.

 

Yeah, views are obviously going to digress on this one.  

 

 

[brianb386]

After playing with the ESPN playoff machine, I think we need to win out in order to get in. I also think it is highly unlikely that we beat both the Chiefs and the Cowboys in consecutive weeks, but if we do win out, I think we take the division as we would sweep the Dolphins who I believe will lose to the Cowboys and the Ravens (and then us).