Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[K D]

3 minutes ago, Nelius said:

Still getting Bills in as 7th seed when following this logic… unless you assume that they also lose to New England. Are you just burying the fact that you have Buffalo not winning again? 

No that's why I'm saying what am I missing. When I put in Bills win this week and lose next week but Pittsburgh winning out then Pittsburgh is in for what I see a very likely scenario where Ravens are resting starters. Not sure, oh well I'll take everyone's word for it!

[gonzo1105]

5 minutes ago, Nelius said:

Still getting Bills in as 7th seed when following this logic… unless you assume that they also lose to New England. Are you just burying the fact that you have Buffalo not winning again? 

If this scenario plays out, we need two of Jacksonville, Houston, or the Colts to lose another game. That would be how we get in. Obviously one of Houston/Indy will get another loss but we need the other to lose and another Cinci loss

Edited December 27, 2023 by gonzo1105

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Dr Krentist said:

Doesn't matter to me. We win out, we get the #2 seed. Would be funny if the Chiefs lose out and Denver wins out to win the division though.

 

Miami needs to lose to Baltimore first. It's possible, probably even likely, but not a guarantee.

 

We need to win Sunday against the Pats, first and foremost.

 

But let's say Buffalo beats the Pats (likely), AND any combination of 2 of the following 3 where Jacksonville loses to the Panthers (possible and maybe very possible with Lawrence's injury), Pittsburgh loses to the Seahawks (very possible), Cincy loses to the Chiefs (I'm giving this just a very possible at this point) AND Miami beats the Ravens (possible)...

 

Do you treat week 18 like a preseason game and rest starters knowing you're likely to be back in Miami the following week, anyway???

[EmotionallyUnstable]

44 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Miami needs to lose to Baltimore first. It's possible, probably even likely, but not a guarantee.

 

We need to win Sunday against the Pats, first and foremost.

 

But let's say Buffalo beats the Pats (likely), AND any combination of 2 of the following 3 where Jacksonville loses to the Panthers (possible and maybe very possible with Lawrence's injury), Pittsburgh loses to the Seahawks (very possible), Cincy loses to the Chiefs (I'm giving this just a very possible at this point) AND Miami beats the Ravens (possible)...

 

Do you treat week 18 like a preseason game and rest starters knowing you're likely to be back in Miami the following week, anyway???

if Bills clinch Sunday and the fins lock up the division, I do not play my starters week 18. 
 

Although in your scenario, we wouldn’t be playing Miami again because they would likely be all in fighting for the 1 seed (taken the lead on the H2H with win over Ravebs). 
 

No way in giving Christian Wilkins another crack at Allen’s jewls before a trip to KC in the WC round 

[strive_for_five_guy]

4 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

if Bills clinch Sunday and the fins lock up the division, I do not play my starters week 18. 
 

Although in your scenario, we wouldn’t be playing Miami again because they would likely be all in fighting for the 1 seed (taken the lead on the H2H with win over Ravebs). 
 

No way in giving Christian Wilkins another crack at Allen’s jewls before a trip to KC in the WC round 

Totally agree. If only thing we can impact heading into Week 18 is our WC seeding, I rest my starters.
 

Don’t know if it’s been pointed out already, but I believe unless we lose to New England, Miami will have something to play for in Week 18 no matter what.  Either trying to hold onto 1 seed, or playing for the division.  In the latter scenario, we’d obviously be going all out too.  In the former, it would depend on whether we’ve locked up a WC spot or not.

[JohnNord]

45 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Miami needs to lose to Baltimore first. It's possible, probably even likely, but not a guarantee.

 

We need to win Sunday against the Pats, first and foremost.

 

But let's say Buffalo beats the Pats (likely), AND any combination of 2 of the following 3 where Jacksonville loses to the Panthers (possible and maybe very possible with Lawrence's injury), Pittsburgh loses to the Seahawks (very possible), Cincy loses to the Chiefs (I'm giving this just a very possible at this point) AND Miami beats the Ravens (possible)...

 

Do you treat week 18 like a preseason game and rest starters knowing you're likely to be back in Miami the following week, anyway???

It’s hard to say - there’s been two examples where the Bills were locked in as the highest seed they could get in Week 18.
 

In 2019, they chose to rest the majority of starters against NYJ knowing they had the 5th seed.  I don’t know if the coaching staff saw this as a benefit as the Bills lost in Houston the next week. 
 

In 2020, the Bills were locked in as the #2 seed.  They really had nothing to play for but McDermott still elected to play most starters for a half and they completely dog walked Miami to keep them out of the playoffs.

 

In 2021 and 2022 they needed a win for the AFCE (2021) and to keep the neutral site playoff game with KC (2022)

 

So there is evidence of the Bills taking both measures in years past.  My guess is that the starters would play for at least a half.  The Bills had a later bye this season and I almost feel it would benefit them more to keep playing.   

[Bermuda Triangle]

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-playoff-picture-postseason-probabilities-entering-week-17-of-2023-season

 

According to this article, the Bills have a 97% chance of making the playoffs with a win in Week 17.

[strive_for_five_guy]

So if we get in as a WC, it’s most likely we will be the #6 seed.  In which case our path to the SB is likely go to KC, then Bal (us as likely worst seed left), then to Mia.  Would def be a gauntlet, but we’ve shown we can beat two of those teams already.

 

if we win the division, we will be the #2 seed (Bal #1, KC likely #3, Mia #6).  We’d host whatever crappy team is the 7 seed, and the host either KC (if they beat MIA) or winner of South division/Cle matchup (I’d love to take Mahomes down in our house, although he’d scare me too).  If we made it to AFCCG, we’d either go to Bal, or HOST MIAMI (Mia would need wins at KC and then at Bal).  How awesome of an AFCCG would that be, hosting Mia with a chance to get back to the SB???

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

43 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

if Bills clinch Sunday and the fins lock up the division, I do not play my starters week 18. 
 

Although in your scenario, we wouldn’t be playing Miami again because they would likely be all in fighting for the 1 seed (taken the lead on the H2H with win over Ravebs). 
 

No way in giving Christian Wilkins another crack at Allen’s jewls before a trip to KC in the WC round 

Completely agree. I'd want to finish 7th not 6th anyways.  I just want to stay away from playing on the road against the defending super bowl champions, I don't care how they've looked lately last ichecked they still have mahomes. I'll take my chances at Baltimore or at Cleveland instead.