Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, loyal2dagame said:

What sucks is the Bills dropping multiple games they had the lead in late in the 4th quarter. Then the Miami split tie breaker wouldn't matter

I don’t look at it that way at all. I look at like the playoffs start a week early for the Bills. Which as a fan I prefer over a meaningless Week 18 game. 

[mrags]

39 minutes ago, zow2 said:

I’m assuming KC will still hang on to win the AFC West.  Gonna need them to get right at month end to dispose of Cincinnati on 12/31.

Rooting hard for Detroit over Denver this weekend too, among other games. 

 

Bills obviously need to take care of their business.

I came here for this argument. Wouldn’t it be possible for the Chiefs to go on a bender and the Broncos take the AFCW. Meanwhile we beat the Chiefs for a wildcard in that scenario since we already beat them. Idk. There’s so many different ways it could happen. No one is more right than another at this point. Each week we get closer to getting those answers tho. 

[zow2]

12 minutes ago, mrags said:

I came here for this argument. Wouldn’t it be possible for the Chiefs to go on a bender and the Broncos take the AFCW. Meanwhile we beat the Chiefs for a wildcard in that scenario since we already beat them. Idk. There’s so many different ways it could happen. No one is more right than another at this point. Each week we get closer to getting those answers tho. 

 

It’s such a strange final 4 games for those clubs because they both play NE, Raiders and Chargers. The difference is Denver has the harder road game @ Detroit and KC gets the Bengals at home.  While i think Jake Browning is playing over his head right now i just cannot see KC losing a 4th game at Arrowhead this season, can you?

[WickedGame]

There is a scenario where if the Bills beat Miami, they win the division and if they lose, they miss the playoffs altogether. 
 

Which is to say the “percentage” chance to make the playoffs means virtually nothing. I don’t want to be in a scenario where we’re 64% to make the playoffs and 50% to win the division, but lose the game and it drops to 0%. 
 

Just. Beat. Dallas. 

[Inigo Montoya]

I was listening to ESPN radio on my way to work this evening (penance for something really bad that I did) and they were really talking up the Browns' playoff chances because Flacco was now their QB.

 

Flacco?  

 

Like I said, it was ESPN...

[Jrb1979]

14 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I was listening to ESPN radio on my way to work this evening (penance for something really bad that I did) and they were really talking up the Browns' playoff chances because Flacco was now their QB.

 

Flacco?  

 

Like I said, it was ESPN...

It's due there schedule left and their offense looked really good last week. I think they make it and the Bengals make it. The last spot comes down Buffalo, Miami and Denver. 

[mrags]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

 

It’s such a strange final 4 games for those clubs because they both play NE, Raiders and Chargers. The difference is Denver has the harder road game @ Detroit and KC gets the Bengals at home.  While i think Jake Browning is playing over his head right now i just cannot see KC losing a 4th game at Arrowhead this season, can you?

Just saying anything is possible. Well know more in a week 

Edited December 13, 2023 by mrags

[Ray Stonada]

84% chance now!

 

Win out: We in

 

Beat the Pats and lose to the Fins: 79%

[Ray Stonada]

To lose one and still get in we gotta root against the Bengals, Steelers and Broncos.

 

I do feel we can lose to the Dolphins. Their offense impresses. Doesn't need Tua to have a stronger arm than he has.

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

49 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

To lose one and still get in we gotta root against the Bengals, Steelers and Broncos.

 

I do feel we can lose to the Dolphins. Their offense impresses. Doesn't need Tua to have a stronger arm than he has.

 

If we are able to lock up a WC berth next weekend and Miami wins too, do we rest players in Week 18???  Seems like we would want to.  We’d only be playing for seed 6 or 7.

[JerseyBills]

58 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

To lose one and still get in we gotta root against the Bengals, Steelers and Broncos.

 

I do feel we can lose to the Dolphins. Their offense impresses. Doesn't need Tua to have a stronger arm than he has.

 

Just have to get Tua off his 1st read and he's a bum

 

McD has done great over AFC East QBs

Edited December 25, 2023 by JerseyBills

[Big Turk]

On 12/12/2023 at 7:04 PM, zow2 said:

 

It’s such a strange final 4 games for those clubs because they both play NE, Raiders and Chargers. The difference is Denver has the harder road game @ Detroit and KC gets the Bengals at home.  While i think Jake Browning is playing over his head right now i just cannot see KC losing a 4th game at Arrowhead this season, can you?

 

Browning came crashing back to earth against the Steelers and will likely continue. Easiest time to look good is the first few games before DCs get a bead on you.

 

Meh QBs usually don't continue to look amazing for long.

1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said:

To lose one and still get in we gotta root against the Bengals, Steelers and Broncos.

 

I do feel we can lose to the Dolphins. Their offense impresses. Doesn't need Tua to have a stronger arm than he has.

 

 

Until Tua has to play off schedule and then he looks bad.

[ColoradoBills]

7 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

84% chance now!

 

Win out: We in

 

Beat the Pats and lose to the Fins: 79%

 

It's a lot higher now.

[GunnerBill]

After the results this week I feel increasingly good about getting in with 1 more win. Which last week I felt was a slim chance.

[Ray Stonada]

Now up to 87% even if we lose to Dolphins OR the Pats.

 

4% even if we lose both(!).

 

 

[JerseyBills]

8 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

84% chance now!

 

Win out: We in

 

Beat the Pats and lose to the Fins: 79%

Losing to those frauds isn't an option.  After Baltimore dominates them, the mafia will take over that stadium, it'll be like today when they had to use a silent count cause the crowd noise from Cowboys fans. Embarrassing for a 10-4 team at home

[Ray Stonada]

15 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Losing to those frauds isn't an option.  After Baltimore dominates them, the mafia will take over that stadium, it'll be like today when they had to use a silent count cause the crowd noise from Cowboys fans. Embarrassing for a 10-4 team at home

 

From your lips to the football gods' mouths, my friend. Let's go.

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Losing to those frauds isn't an option.  After Baltimore dominates them, the mafia will take over that stadium, it'll be like today when they had to use a silent count cause the crowd noise from Cowboys fans. Embarrassing for a 10-4 team at home

 

The "let's go Cowboys" at the start of the Phins final drive was very audible. 

[TampaBillsJunkie]

The Patriots are not a push over to look past. We have two division games that we need to come out focused and play mistake free "complimentary" football.  The goal is in sight, especially if Baltimore takes care of business against Miami.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, TampaBillsJunkie said:

The Patriots are not a push over to look past. We have two division games that we need to come out focused and play mistake free "complimentary" football.  The goal is in sight, especially if Baltimore takes care of business against Miami.

 

Their D could cause issues if the Bills don't come out ready to play.