Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[QCity]

1 minute ago, finn said:

If the Bills win out, do they have a chance to be the number one seed? The machinations are beyond my weak brain. 

 

A zero in that chart means it's less than 0.5% chance and rounded down. So technically yes but...  dollar and a dream odds.

[Coach Tuesday]

There is a nonzero chance the Jets’ front seven ends Tua’s season on Sunday.

[The Wiz]

 

 

[aristocrat]

7 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

There is a nonzero chance the Jets’ front seven ends Tua’s season on Sunday.

No tyreek makes that a huge possibility 

[mjt328]

After last night, I think it's more likely the Bills make the playoffs by winning the AFC East than sneaking in as a Wild Card.  

First of all, I'm very skeptical on us beating Dallas on Sunday.  Might be the best/hottest team we've played all season long, and the Bills are still way too flawed.  As stated multiple times, pretty much all the AFC tiebreakers are working against us.  And if we drop to 7 losses, our only pathway to a Wild Card is having those other teams drop to 8 losses.  Looking at upcoming schedules, I can see that happening with the Steelers, Colts and probably Bengals.  It's very unlikely it happens with the Browns or Jaguars.  Not looking great for the Texans or Broncos.  That would knock us out.

 

Strange enough, the ONLY team in the AFC the Bills could potentially hold a tiebreaker over is the Dolphins.  If we beat them again, we hold the 2-0 head-to-head advantage.  And now with that loss to the Titans, combined with upcoming matchups against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills... the path to Miami hitting 7 losses is suddenly a realistic scenario.

 

[FTLBillsfan]

The Dolphins loss last night makes it simple. The Bills have to win 1 more game than the Dolphins in the next 3 weeks to play for the AFCE title in Miami in week 17.

I can see both the Bills and Dolphins losing to Dallas, and the fins losing to Baltimore. It almost looks like our chances of winning the AFCE title are better than a wild card  with the tie breakers. Dolphins are one of the only teams in the playoff picture that we have a tie breaker with.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

22 minutes ago, finn said:

If the Bills win out, do they have a chance to be the number one seed? The machinations are beyond my weak brain. 

Looking at the PlayoffStatus website, and factoring in last night's AFC game, there is less than 1% chance of the Bills getting the #1 seed in the AFC.  Still possible, but a lot of planets and stars need to align.  The Bills lost any chance of controlling their playoff destiny with the loss to Denver.

[mannc]

16 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

If the Bills win out then they have a realistic shot at winning the division (fish would need to lose to Dallas and Balt, and they struggle mightily against good teams).  If they lose one game they probably miss completely.  Crazy.

I don’t think that’s right. The Fish only have to lose one of their next three games—then lose to us—to finish 11-6. We would then have the tiebreaker and take the division.

8 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

After last night, I think it's more likely the Bills make the playoffs by winning the AFC East than sneaking in as a Wild Card.  

First of all, I'm very skeptical on us beating Dallas on Sunday.  Might be the best/hottest team we've played all season long, and the Bills are still way too flawed.  As stated multiple times, pretty much all the AFC tiebreakers are working against us.  And if we drop to 7 losses, our only pathway to a Wild Card is having those other teams drop to 8 losses.  Looking at upcoming schedules, I can see that happening with the Steelers, Colts and probably Bengals.  It's very unlikely it happens with the Browns or Jaguars.  Not looking great for the Texans or Broncos.  That would knock us out.

 

Strange enough, the ONLY team in the AFC the Bills could potentially hold a tiebreaker over is the Dolphins.  If we beat them again, we hold the 2-0 head-to-head advantage.  And now with that loss to the Titans, combined with upcoming matchups against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills... the path to Miami hitting 7 losses is suddenly a realistic scenario.

 

Wow, we might as well not even show up on Sunday, even though we’re favored.

Edited December 12, 2023 by mannc

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

8 hours ago, BritBill said:

 

I think all 3 of those teams are more than capable of doing to the Dolphins O to what Bills did earlier in the season. 

 

Miami losing last night was massive in terms of giving the Bills a little leeway in their game this week. The last game of the season really could be for the division. 

 

What's the best outcome of the Colts/Steelers you think? 

I think it’s more likely that the Steelers keep losing. So I’d guess I’d prefer them to win here and then gives the colts a loss. I think the Steelers stink. They can lose to anyone 

[Gregg]

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 hours ago, aristocrat said:

No tyreek makes that a huge possibility 

No Connor Williams either, possibly no Terron armstead or Robert hunt either 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 hours ago, mjt328 said:

After last night, I think it's more likely the Bills make the playoffs by winning the AFC East than sneaking in as a Wild Card.  

First of all, I'm very skeptical on us beating Dallas on Sunday.  Might be the best/hottest team we've played all season long, and the Bills are still way too flawed.  As stated multiple times, pretty much all the AFC tiebreakers are working against us.  And if we drop to 7 losses, our only pathway to a Wild Card is having those other teams drop to 8 losses.  Looking at upcoming schedules, I can see that happening with the Steelers, Colts and probably Bengals.  It's very unlikely it happens with the Browns or Jaguars.  Not looking great for the Texans or Broncos.  That would knock us out.

 

Strange enough, the ONLY team in the AFC the Bills could potentially hold a tiebreaker over is the Dolphins.  If we beat them again, we hold the 2-0 head-to-head advantage.  And now with that loss to the Titans, combined with upcoming matchups against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills... the path to Miami hitting 7 losses is suddenly a realistic scenario.

 

Tiebreakers get a little murky if it’s a three way tie so you never really know until the games are played.

dolphins may free fall for sure because their entire offensive line is hurt again and tyreek might be banged up.  No jevon holland or jaelan phillips either I think they’re lookin at a 1-3 finish at best.  I don’t think their roster is much better than the jets currently either 

 

the scales have definitely tipped to playing man against them and watching their oline implode before anyone can get open deep

Edited December 12, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[JoshAllin]

What sucks is dolphins can lose the next 3 games and bills win the next 3, and in the final game phins can still win the division with a win

[loyal2dagame]

15 minutes ago, motorj said:

What sucks is dolphins can lose the next 3 games and bills win the next 3, and in the final game phins can still win the division with a win

What sucks is the Bills dropping multiple games they had the lead in late in the 4th quarter. Then the Miami split tie breaker wouldn't matter

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

54 minutes ago, Gregg said:

I was actually saying that last night

 

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, finn said:

If the Bills win out, do they have a chance to be the number one seed? The machinations are beyond my weak brain. 

 

Its not very likely.  Ravens already have 10 wins.  Theyd only have to win one game out of the next 4. Then you have the Chiefs, Browns, Jags still 1 game up on us  and then you have like 5 other teams that all are the same record as us right now.  I know a lot of these teams fall off but its very unlikely for us to get the 1 seed.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

2 hours ago, motorj said:

What sucks is dolphins can lose the next 3 games and bills win the next 3, and in the final game phins can still win the division with a win

In a perfect world that last game is winner takes division and loser is a WC. Just as long as we get in I’ll take any scenario 

[zow2]

I’m assuming KC will still hang on to win the AFC West.  Gonna need them to get right at month end to dispose of Cincinnati on 12/31.

Rooting hard for Detroit over Denver this weekend too, among other games. 

 

Bills obviously need to take care of their business.

[JerseyBills]

Bills being favorites has me even more confident vs Dallas. The casual fan sees that line and looks at the records/momentum and bets Dallas alk day. Vegas knows this, it'll be very competitive,  likely come down to last possesion

9 hours ago, QCity said:

 

A zero in that chart means it's less than 0.5% chance and rounded down. So technically yes but...  dollar and a dream odds.

We'd need a 13 seconds type miracle to get the 1 seed but never know.  Just keep freaking winning 

[AuntieEm]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:55 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

But that’s been the problem with him and the whole team. It’s completely inconsistent every game this year. 
 

this team can beat any team in the nfl. We also can lose to any team as well. It’s so frustrating.

 

Well the way I see it is its a long season and these guys get best up weekly. I'd find it unrealistic to have any team have all players playing at their 100% best for every game.   So I rather be the team that gels and is peaking heading into the post season.  If we take the division and Miami gets a wild card I don't think they will advance. Miami that is.  I think this current Bills team is gelling and is focused.  They maybe learning to get it done and  when both our offense and defense are working as a team then don't see them getting beat.

 

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by AuntieEm