Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[DBilz2500]

2 minutes ago, jlgarsh said:

If they get to 10-7 they'll be in, as long as the only L is Dallas. Any more conference losses make it next to impossible.

Exactly what I’ve been saying. 10-7 with a 7-5 conference record will most likely get us in. With tiebreakers if it’s 3 teams they don’t start with head to head 

[ImpactCorey]

1 minute ago, DBilz2500 said:

Exactly what I’ve been saying. 10-7 with a 7-5 conference record will most likely get us in. With tiebreakers if it’s 3 teams they don’t start with head to head 

I thought so too... until you actually run through scenarios.  The teams they are in a race with have very easy schedules and because of tie breakers, you need them to lose 2 games if the Bills lose 1.  What's worse, is that even if ONE of the teams loses that needs to, they likely lose to a team that the Bills ALSO need to lose.  So the way I see it, the only way the Bills get in is if they win out.

[BuffBillsForLife]

If the Bills win out then they have a realistic shot at winning the division (fish would need to lose to Dallas and Balt, and they struggle mightily against good teams).  If they lose one game they probably miss completely.  Crazy.

[Charles Romes]

17 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

I thought so too... until you actually run through scenarios.  The teams they are in a race with have very easy schedules and because of tie breakers, you need them to lose 2 games if the Bills lose 1.  What's worse, is that even if ONE of the teams loses that needs to, they likely lose to a team that the Bills ALSO need to lose.  So the way I see it, the only way the Bills get in is if they win out.

10-7 missing the playoffs would be the ultimate disaster. Not quite bad enough to justify the house cleaning needed or for draft stock strong enough for a #1 wr, not good enough to make a run at the Lombardi in a year loaded with flawed teams. 

[DCofNC]

9 minutes ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

If the Bills win out then they have a realistic shot at winning the division (fish would need to lose to Dallas and Balt, and they struggle mightily against good teams).  If they lose one game they probably miss completely.  Crazy.

I said it early on this year and got chastised for it, but this team could easily miss the playoffs and a large part would be the losses down the stretch.  Here we are in the beginning of the tough stretch, sitting 1-1 and because of horrid play early, they can’t lose anymore.   The McHandicap effect has lost a few games this year, I can’t help but believe it will lose us more.   Had it not been for Toney being a complete bone head last night, this season is over already. 
 

 

Gotta go win ‘em all and be ready to keep rolling in the playoffs…. Or hope the boys did well on Black Friday, cause they are going to need a nice TV to watch the playoffs on.

[strive_for_five_guy]

37 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

I thought so too... until you actually run through scenarios.  The teams they are in a race with have very easy schedules and because of tie breakers, you need them to lose 2 games if the Bills lose 1.  What's worse, is that even if ONE of the teams loses that needs to, they likely lose to a team that the Bills ALSO need to lose.  So the way I see it, the only way the Bills get in is if they win out.

Agree.  If Broncos don’t lose to Lions next weekend, they’re one of the teams we’ll have a tough time catching.  That’s likely their toughest game left.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Saturday is a big day for us. All 3 games can really help us out or hurt us.

[Ray Stonada]

Miami losing makes it way more likely we can take the division by winning out.

 

We just need them to lose to either Baltimore or Dallas or the Jets.

 

I’d say they have less than 25% shot to win all three of those. 
 

LET’S GO!

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Agree.  If Broncos don’t lose to Lions next weekend, they’re one of the teams we’ll have a tough time catching.  That’s likely their toughest game left.

 

I'm baking Denver in as a wildcard that goes one and done in the playoffs. There are two spots left. Of course the route for the Bills now is win out. If we win out we will win the division. 

[BritBill]

1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said:

Miami losing makes it way more likely we can take the division by winning out.

 

We just need them to lose to either Baltimore or Dallas or the Jets.

 

I’d say they have less than 25% shot to win all three of those. 
 

LET’S GO!

 

I think all 3 of those teams are more than capable of doing to the Dolphins O to what Bills did earlier in the season. 

 

Miami losing last night was massive in terms of giving the Bills a little leeway in their game this week. The last game of the season really could be for the division. 

10 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Saturday is a big day for us. All 3 games can really help us out or hurt us.

 

What's the best outcome of the Colts/Steelers you think? 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Hardest part is always our part. Just win, everything else will take care of itself.

[Kgun5]

1 hour ago, BritBill said:

 

I think all 3 of those teams are more than capable of doing to the Dolphins O to what Bills did earlier in the season. 

 

Miami losing last night was massive in terms of giving the Bills a little leeway in their game this week. The last game of the season really could be for the division. 

 

What's the best outcome of the Colts/Steelers you think? 

No change in overall playoff chance. Slightly better chance for division title with Colts win.

[CSBill]

1 hour ago, BritBill said:

What's the best outcome of the Colts/Steelers you think? 

 

Do we have a tie-breaker with either? If so, cheer for that team.

[QCity]

Miami loss boosted their chances by +2% up to 38% as predicted.

 

If your homer blood is overflowing this morning you'll be happy to know the Bills now essentially control their own destiny. If they win out they have an 86% chance of hosting a playoff game.

 

 

Their chances at 3-1 have gone up to ~75% and that's my predicted outcome for them.

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by QCity

[BADOLBILZ]

15 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

If the Bills win out then they have a realistic shot at winning the division (fish would need to lose to Dallas and Balt, and they struggle mightily against good teams).  If they lose one game they probably miss completely.  Crazy.

 

 

The Bills need only to trail the Dolphins by 1 game going into the finale to win the division because they would hold the tie-breaker if they beat them the second time..........so Miami doesn't need to lose 2 games prior to the finale.

 

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

15 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

If the Bills win out then they have a realistic shot at winning the division (fish would need to lose to Dallas and Balt, and they struggle mightily against good teams).  If they lose one game they probably miss completely.  Crazy.

From 'in the hunt' to 'drawn and quartered' in one fell swoop.

*
Or is it 'one swell foop'?

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

Miami losing makes it way more likely we can take the division by winning out.

 

We just need them to lose to either Baltimore or Dallas or the Jets.

 

I’d say they have less than 25% shot to win all three of those. 
 

LET’S GO!

 

I'd say it's less than 15% to win all three of those for Miami.  They're capable but Baltimore and Dallas are both top-3 teams right now.

[finn]

3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

Miami losing makes it way more likely we can take the division by winning out.

 

We just need them to lose to either Baltimore or Dallas or the Jets.

 

I’d say they have less than 25% shot to win all three of those. 
 

LET’S GO!

Funny, I'm convinced the Bills will win out and the Dolphins will collapse, or at least lose to the adults in the room (Baltimore, Dallas, the Jets, and the Bills). They've been overhyped all year, a sugar-high team with no bottom, as they showed last night against the Titans. 

 

Of course, the Bills have been epic chokers this year, so who's talking. But at least they have a chance of figuring that out and turning it around, as they may have already. I'd rather be the team that loses to bad teams and beats good ones than the other way around. 

[pocoboy]

10 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

I'd say it's less than 15% to win all three of those for Miami.  They're capable but Baltimore and Dallas are both top-3 teams right now.

 

Bottom Line: If the Bills plan to slough off like they have way too often in the last 2 years, they need to get it out of their system this week. Otherwise, they need to be keyed up and ready to annihilate every game on out. You can't be heroic and beat Dallas and then peeter out against the Chargers on the road. Buckle up and do this.

[finn]

24 minutes ago, QCity said:

Miami loss boosted their chances by +2% up to 38% as predicted.

 

If your homer blood is overflowing this morning you'll be happy to know the Bills now essentially control their own destiny. If they win out they have an 86% chance of hosting a playoff game.

 

 

Their chances at 3-1 have gone up to ~75% and that's my predicted outcome for them.

 

If the Bills win out, do they have a chance to be the number one seed? The machinations are beyond my weak brain.