Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[entropyrules]

24 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Math

new or old?

Edited December 10, 2023 by entropyrules

[co_springs_billsfan]

Somebody give me updated odds to put in my veins

[DapperCam]

2 minutes ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

Somebody give me updated odds to put in my veins

Up to 39% in the NYT simulator. Can get it up to 72% with favorable results the next week.

Week 14

TEN over MIA

 

Week15

MIN over CIN

CHI over CLE

DET over DEN

TEN over HOU

NYJ over MIA

BUF over DAL

 

With no results other than a Bills win next week we are up to 60%.

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

Up to 39% in the NYT simulator. Can get it up to 72% with favorable results the next week.

Week 14

TEN over MIA

 

Week15

MIN over CIN

CHI over CLE

DET over DEN

TEN over HOU

NYJ over MIA

BUF over DAL

 

With no results other than a Bills win next week we are up to 60%.

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Up to 39% in the NYT simulator. Can get it up to 72% with favorable results the next week.

Week 14

TEN over MIA

 

Week15

MIN over CIN

CHI over CLE

DET over DEN

TEN over HOU

NYJ over MIA

BUF over DAL

 

With no results other than a Bills win next week we are up to 60%.

Some of these games will go in our favor.  

[schoolhouserock]

9 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Some of these games will go in our favor.  

Yes! Especially BUF over DAL, right? …RIGHT?!

[LABILLBACKER]

9 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

Yes! Especially BUF over DAL, right? …RIGHT?!

We're ambushing Dak on Sunday. 

[Mikie2times]

11 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

Yes! Especially BUF over DAL, right? …RIGHT?!

We always get the breaks playing Dallas at home in a big game 

 

[chongli]

49 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

We always get the breaks playing Dallas at home in a big game 

 

 

Well, except in 2007 when we played them at home on MNF and lost 25-24 in the last few seconds. Heartbreaker!

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200710080buf.htm

[Mikie2times]

Just now, chongli said:

 

Well, except in 2007 when we played them at home on MNF and lost 25-24 in the last few seconds. Heartbreaker!

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200710080buf.htm

Ya, that was the train wreck I was joking about. What a miserable game. Crowd was unreal. 

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, schoolhouserock said:

Yes! Especially BUF over DAL, right? …RIGHT?!

 

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We're ambushing Dak on Sunday. 

 

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

We always get the breaks playing Dallas at home in a big game 

 

 

41 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

Well, except in 2007 when we played them at home on MNF and lost 25-24 in the last few seconds. Heartbreaker!

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200710080buf.htm

 

[QCity]

6 hours ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

Somebody give me updated odds to put in my veins

 

Overall odds go up 14% to about 35% right now. A Tennessee win over Miami tonight will increase that another 2%

 

A 3-1 finish (which IMO feel is most likely) has about a 70% chance to get in.

 

[ExiledInIllinois]

47 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

Well, except in 2007 when we played them at home on MNF and lost 25-24 in the last few seconds. Heartbreaker!

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200710080buf.htm

Tony Romo throws 5 picks! And... God blesses us with Trent-a-tive Edwards @ Qb! 😕😞 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We're ambushing Dak on Sunday. 

Yeah. Here we go… on a run. 

[jlgarsh]

The best news is that somehow the Chargers haven't canned Staley yet. He's the worst coach now that McDaniels was axed. Even Eberflus has the Bears playing hard every week and competitive. 

[mjt328]

I've been playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and it's still a very tough road ahead for the Bills.

I still can't figure out a realistic way to make the playoffs, unless we win-out and finish 11-6.

 

Miami's next two games are against the Titans and Jets.  They should easily defeat both.  But if they lose to Dallas and Baltimore after that, they would be looking at an 11-5 record going into the final week.  So there is still a possible road to the AFC East title.... but only if the Bills finish the season undefeated.

 

Based on tie-breakers for the Wild Card, the Bills are pretty much dead-last.  Which is why (even after beating the Chiefs and a couple games going our way this week), we still sit at a terrible #11 in seeding.  If we can win-out, all those teams in competition with us only need to lose 7 games.  If we drop even one close game along the way, we need the others to lose 8.  And that could get very tricky.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

13 hours ago, chongli said:

 

Well, except in 2007 when we played them at home on MNF and lost 25-24 in the last few seconds. Heartbreaker!

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200710080buf.htm

 

hey, thanks for the reminder, really needed that

 

>_>

 

[DBilz2500]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

I've been playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and it's still a very tough road ahead for the Bills.

I still can't figure out a realistic way to make the playoffs, unless we win-out and finish 11-6.

 

Miami's next two games are against the Titans and Jets.  They should easily defeat both.  But if they lose to Dallas and Baltimore after that, they would be looking at an 11-5 record going into the final week.  So there is still a possible road to the AFC East title.... but only if the Bills finish the season undefeated.

 

Based on tie-breakers for the Wild Card, the Bills are pretty much dead-last.  Which is why (even after beating the Chiefs and a couple games going our way this week), we still sit at a terrible #11 in seeding.  If we can win-out, all those teams in competition with us only need to lose 7 games.  If we drop even one close game along the way, we need the others to lose 8.  And that could get very tricky.

 

Wins over Chargers, Pats, Fins and L vs. cowboys gets us to 70% playoff odds with 10-7 record and 7-5 in the conference. I think finals wildcards end up being Browns, Broncos/Chiefs(with other winning division), and Bills being last wildcard. I don’t think Steelers, colts, Bengals  or Texans make it in with their QB situations and all their injuries. Just my 2 cents 

[Goin Breakdown]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Some of these games will go in our favor.  

Man idk. Maybe I'm being negative here but if I had no dog in the fight here I wouldn't bet on any of those teams to win. 

[jlgarsh]

If they get to 10-7 they'll be in, as long as the only L is Dallas. Any more conference losses make it next to impossible.