Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[Casey D]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Sad thing is that even if we pull it off and win out this season, we still only have a 47% chance of making the playoffs. That Philly loss was a killer.

That is totally incorrect.  NYT playoff machine gives Bills over a 99% chance of making playoffs if they win last 5.  57% if they go 4-1 with loss to Dallas. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by Casey D

[ColoradoBills]

Win the game against the Chiefs and let things with the other teams play out.

Way too many scenarios to look at with 5 games left.

 

Heck, if Trevor's high ankle sprain is bad the Colts could win the division and the Jags miss the playoffs.

Bills just need to win.

 

Remember, head-to-head for a wildcard may include more that 2 teams.  Most times they don't all play each other so it doesn't count.

 

[boyst]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

The Denver loss was the killer. Missed kick. Game over. Conference foe defeated. Wait...... You had 12 men on the field. 

that was the nail in the coffin for many of our hopes but the reality is we still have a chance.

with burrough injured and cinci now playing well with whoever their backup is - i think there is a decent chance they still produce on the field.

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, Casey D said:

That is totally incorrect.  NYT playoff machine gives Bills over a 99% chance of making playoffs if they win last 5.  57% if they go 4-1 with loss to Dallas. 

Correct. I think I had a stray leftover "loss" in there. So here's how it stands. With everything else remaining as projected (in other words, games involving other teams give us predicted results):

 

- beat KC, chances improve to 24%

- beat Dallas too, 41%

- beat LAC too, 61%

- beat Pats and Phins, 99% 

 

Lose even one game, the best we can do is 59% (losing to the Cowboys, since they're a non-conference opponent).

 

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Heck, if Trevor's high ankle sprain is bad the Colts could win the division and the Jags miss the playoffs.

Unfortunately they have Browns, Ravens in the next two (could definitely lose), then Bucs (maybe) and Titans/Panthers (no way). So even without Trevor I don't see them giving us a lot of help.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

33 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Correct. I think I had a stray leftover "loss" in there. So here's how it stands. With everything else remaining as projected (in other words, games involving other teams give us predicted results):

 

- beat KC, chances improve to 24%

- beat Dallas too, 41%

- beat LAC too, 61%

- beat Pats and Phins, 99% 

 

Lose even one game, the best we can do is 59% (losing to the Cowboys, since they're a non-conference opponent).

 

Unfortunately they have Browns, Ravens in the next two (could definitely lose), then Bucs (maybe) and Titans/Panthers (no way). So even without Trevor I don't see them giving us a lot of help.

 

Titans and Panthers are playing rookie QBs on young teams.  Valuable reps there and they aren't going to lie down. Their defenses can't get takeaways, but backup QBs hold the ball more often.   I wouldn't put money on it, but i wouldn't be surprised if they lose either of those games without lawrence.  The Jaguars would just have a huge question mark without him.

 

 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

I have run the numbers with the Playoff Eliminator, which I prefer... it turns out that the Bills have a better chance to make the playoffs than I thought even if we lose to the Chiefs or the Cowboys. The one team that screws us is Denver- if they manage to sweep the Chargers then that is a bad sign for us. 

 

Likely first games are wild card games at KC, then at Miami, then at Baltimore in that order,

 

I'm at the point to where I don't care either way because McD will find some way to hose us.

[Alphadawg7]

All anyone needs to focus on is beat the Chiefs.  We can't take another AFC loss, we are already in very bad shape as it is with tie breakers, so we can't both take another loss and have it be an AFC team.   That being said, I am confident we will beat the Chiefs, they will not be able to keep up with us scoring wise.  

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

All anyone needs to focus on is beat the Chiefs.  We can't take another AFC loss, we are already in very bad shape as it is with tie breakers, so we can't both take another loss and have it be an AFC team.   That being said, I am confident we will beat the Chiefs, they will not be able to keep up with us scoring wise.  

 

That sounds great on paper, but the Chiefs' D at home has been sick.  

 

They're ranked 2nd behind Baltimore and SF whose Ds are excellent, and just ahead of Dallas.  

 

Their D has allowed only 14 PPG at home, 19.5 on the road.  

 

Bet the Under.  

 

My key to the game is stopping Pacheco.  If we can do that IMO we win, by how much who knows, but if Pacheco has another big day like he just did or like he had vs. the Jets earlier in the season, could be trouble.  

 

Eagles' RBs logged 120 yards on 18 carries against us, 6.7 YPC, and Hurts added another 65.  

 

Pacheco also did a number on the Jets D in NY.  

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

That sounds great on paper, but the Chiefs' D at home has been sick.  

 

They're ranked 2nd behind Baltimore and SF whose Ds are excellent, and just ahead of Dallas.  

 

Their D has allowed only 14 PPG at home, 19.5 on the road.  

 

Bet the Under.  

 

My key to the game is stopping Pacheco.  If we can do that IMO we win, by how much who knows, but if Pacheco has another big day like he just did or like he had vs. the Jets earlier in the season, could be trouble.  

 

Eagles' RBs logged 120 yards on 18 carries against us, 6.7 YPC, and Hurts added another 65.  

 

Pacheco also did a number on the Jets D in NY.  

 

 

 

Jets run D has not been great this year, and I am not too worried about Pacheco.  Bills will put up 28+ and that will be more than KC puts up on us.  KC is also banged coming out of the GB game too.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Jets run D has not been great this year, and I am not too worried about Pacheco.  Bills will put up 28+ and that will be more than KC puts up on us.  

 

Well, that's my point, ours ain't either.  

 

Eagles rank 4th in Rushing YPG allowed, Jets 28th, but keep in mind that (without looking) it's quite possible that many of those rushing yards are at the ends of games against a worn out Jets D and simply consuming time in already won games by their opponents.  I don't know, but it's a good speculation.  

 

We rank 20th in YPG.  

 

This next stat is what makes me say that.  

 

The more important one is YPC allowed, where the Jets rank 11th, the Eagles 19th, and us at 29th with YPC allowed of 4.1, 4.2, and 4.7 respectively.  

 

We'll see how it shakes out.  

 

Otherwise, you're saying that we're going to hang at least another TD on them more than any other team, including three teams ranked 2nd, 4th, and 6th in scoring did?  ... and at least twice their average allowed at home.  

 

I hope so, but that seems really optimistic.  

 

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by PBF81

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, that's my point, ours ain't either.  

 

Eagles rank 4th in Rushing YPG allowed, Jets 28th, but keep in mind that (without looking) it's quite possible that many of those rushing yards are at the ends of games against a worn out Jets D and simply consuming time in already won games by their opponents.  I don't know, but it's a good speculation.  

 

We rank 20th in YPG.  

 

This next stat is what makes me say that.  

 

The more important one is YPC allowed, where the Jets rank 11th, the Eagles 19th, and us at 29th with YPC allowed of 4.1, 4.2, and 4.7 respectively.  

 

We'll see how it shakes out.  

 

 

 

I get what you are saying, but I just don't think the Chiefs can offensively keep up with the Bills right now leaning on Pacheco.  It won't be a gimme game by any means, and Chiefs D has saved their season no doubt, but the way our offense is playing, coming off a bye with more time to give Brady to install more tweaks and wrinkles, I just think it will be a game where Chiefs won't keep up.  Chiefs D is banged up and Bills know this is a must win game, this is essentially as close to a playoff game as it gets in the regular season for the Bills too.  

 

And remember, when Pacheco helped against the Jets the Chiefs were facing Zack Wilson on the other side of the ball, not Josh Allen.

[PBF81]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I get what you are saying, but I just don't think the Chiefs can offensively keep up with the Bills right now leaning on Pacheco.  It won't be a gimme game by any means, and Chiefs D has saved their season no doubt, but the way our offense is playing, coming off a bye with more time to give Brady to install more tweaks and wrinkles, I just think it will be a game where Chiefs won't keep up.  Chiefs D is banged up and Bills know this is a must win game, this is essentially as close to a playoff game as it gets in the regular season for the Bills too.  

 

And remember, when Pacheco helped against the Jets the Chiefs were facing Zack Wilson on the other side of the ball, not Josh Allen.

 

IDK, our D has played pretty pathetically against some pretty awful offenses.  

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

IDK, our D has played pretty pathetically against some pretty awful offenses.  

 

 

 

People say that, but honestly, our defense has played well enough for this team to be at least 10-2 if not 11-1 right now had the offense not crapped the bed week 1 and for 6 straight weeks under Dorsey.  

 

Had our offense played like it has under the first 2 weeks of Brady, we would actually be 11-1 right now with the only loss being Philly since we did lose that one with our offense playing well.  

 

D has its issues, but our record is a reflection of our offense.  Our low scoring offense 20.5 ppg for 6 weeks against bad competition put our defense in positions at ends of games that they shouldn't have been in had we just scored points like this team should have been scoring.  Those 1 score losses should have been multiple score leads by end of the game.  

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

People say that, but honestly, our defense has played well enough for this team to be at least 10-2 if not 11-1 right now had the offense not crapped the bed week 1 and for 6 straight weeks under Dorsey.  

 

Had our offense played like it has under the first 2 weeks of Brady, we would actually be 11-1 right now with the only loss being Philly since we did lose that one with our offense playing well.  

 

D has its issues, but our record is a reflection of our offense.  Our low scoring offense 20.5 ppg for 6 weeks against bad competition put our defense in positions at ends of games that they shouldn't have been in had we just scored points like this team should have been scoring.  Those 1 score losses should have been multiple score leads by end of the game.  

 

We'll see come Sunday, but our D has certainly had its hiccups too.  

 

 

[Ray Stonada]

4 hours ago, Success said:

 

If we win out, we're making the playoffs.  I don't know how they're deriving that 47%. 

 

 

If we win out, we have a 98% chance of getting in with NYT simulator.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#kc-buf-14=loss&buf-dal-15=win&lac-buf-16=loss&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss

[strive_for_five_guy]

On 12/5/2023 at 3:32 PM, Ray Stonada said:

 

If we win out, we have a 98% chance of getting in with NYT simulator.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#kc-buf-14=loss&buf-dal-15=win&lac-buf-16=loss&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss

What are our odds now at 11-6 or 10-7?

[ColoradoBills]

13 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

What are our odds now at 11-6 or 10-7?

 

99% and 67% (loss to Dallas).

[transplantbillsfan]

Our percentage went up from 14% to 20% with the Pittsburgh loss

[mannc]

9 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Our percentage went up from 14% to 20% with the Pittsburgh loss

On Fan Duel, we’ve gone from +500 to +340 since Monday.  Pretty big jump…

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 12/5/2023 at 9:34 AM, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

Remember, head-to-head for a wildcard may include more that 2 teams.  Most times they don't all play each other so it doesn't count.

 

Yep.

that’s exactly how the drought was broken. We lost the head to head to the Chargers that year but it was a 3+ team tie breaker scenario.